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I have benefited from this website, I am no programmer, have traded for about 18 years...open out cry on the LIFFE floor.
Have generally always wrote an end of day summary that mainly, was concerned about how I traded and my emotion, what I should be wary of the next day. Which is a very softly softly approach, plus I always traded a lot, so to write a journal on every trade would be unlikely.!
So my Achilles Heel!! Would be to have a blow out day, or run, because a lot of my trading was technical analysis and gut feeling, mixed in. Which had served me well enough, but knew this would have a limited life span, because of the randomness of it all.
Trading Rules
1 3 Trades a day
once this is done you can get on with something else Adds Patience
Adds Discipline
2 Always go with what the market is telling you, no double bluffing!!
3 Never move stops out of market, move them in not out
Set Ups
Go with Unirenko(thanks Monpere)
Look for volume Imbalance and accumulating volume(thanks Gomi) Price Action Swing Indi Ziz Zag vol and the Volume indicator(thanks Dorschden)
Supertrend 11 and Pivots (thanks Fat Tails)
Will be more explicit on illustrations
Action
1 Write Log on Trades, Setup reason and Outcome
2 Increase Size on three up days
Goal
To Get to optimum size
The reason for doing this, is best explained in these words.
"When you try to "teach" someone your process, or "explain" why you did something, then it really focuses you and most people will likely learn that their reasoning is flawed or unpredictable. A journal helps you reach this realization, and then from there you can learn to hone your skills and start making predictable and well researched trades that follow a plan, instead of claiming to do so while the facts clearly state otherwise."
look at all the dailys, that I think are relevant, I have one screen of 60 mins, which has Daily pivots and VWAP
Look at the previous day ladders look at stand out volume imbalances, write support and resistance levels from this, get an idea of order flow and tipping points etc
(Daltons Mind Over Markets recommended)
Will add to this but will post
three trades for today
Eurostoxx is the main focus
We have been going up and down with the Bonds at the moment and there was bullish call on open also the US Bond auction was well received last night, plus there was a lot of positive Delta imbalance in the Stoxx(Euro) near the close, from above 3549-50, (which if the market goes below these prices by 15/20 ticks I use as resistance).
1 st Trade
Sold A positive Delata Imbalance from Mondays trading which I was looking to sell yesterday 3567, was only going to sell this level if it took some effort to get there, because of the bullish sentiment on open, do not want to be swept away on the first trade. Also the market left an over night gap on open 3548, so I was hoping it might close the gap. Overall the sentiment is bullish
2nd Trade
looking to buy bund missed an opportunity which I will show as a nice setup, then broke through previous highs, bought the retest at, but got stopped out, probably should trade less size and will widen stop, will probably encourage me to take the earlier trade. But bought 153.53, stopped 153.46.
Lost my Gomi ladder chart on the bund so can not show, but similar to the Eurostoxx, The early trade missed was exactly the same in its construction as shown in the Eurostoxx, Low Neg delta on a downward PNF near lows
3rd Trade
Bought Stoxx at 3580, wasnt best entry, but I was hoping for another move quickly up as the Bund had bounced off the retest and making new highs, also Stoxx had sold off on a downward PNF (point and Figure)with a positve Delta on the ladder which is can be a good setup, pretty much new this trade was wrong after about ten minutes. Best I could hope for was the test of the high or sell high positive delta imbalance above, plus market was showing a bearish ABC pattern on Stoxx and Dax. But as I am a little pigheaded chose to ignore all this moved my stop and took a 12 tick stop instead bugger
Conclusion
Must stick to one of the main rules not to move stops out!!
If trading Bund reduce size and widen stops 15-10
Trade what you see, scratch is better than a 12 tick loss
Will have to wait another three days till I can increase size!
There was a bearish tone to the markets this morning in the Stoxx plus the heavy close with plenty of Negative Delta, so much so, was a little hesitant on going short on open, was hoping for a bear squeeze and to find a decent place to get short from. Had Decent positive imbalance at 5520, and at 5526, so was offered at 5526, although I have urges telling me this gets up to 3559. Which still leaves the Stoxx in tact for a good move lower.
Also with an eye on the Bund which had been trading a trend channel in to the close, very steep one at that, which it broke out of this morning, the squeeze was on,
1st Trade
Had a good or large Neg Imbalance that I had made a note of from previous trading, which was on the 6th or 7th May, which was from 3482-3487, so went long at 3487. Based on previous selling at lower prices and the squeeze in the Bund, also the market had printed nicely on the buying tail that it had left on the Euro Stox Dailys from the 7th May
2nd Trade
Sold the Positive imBalance, left from previous day trading 3526 also the high for late afternoon session, although by now there was a bid the market plus Unirenko was now in uptrend, But the Pas volume was still down. I probably should nt of done this trade because most things were pointing higher, especially as the market couldnt get back below 3511(rectangle on 60 min range), plus the downward PNF with a strong positive delta(gomi ladder)[IMG][IMG][/IMG][/IMG].
Not sure what the catalyst was but nearly up to the sell point 3559, might look for some confirmation of sell because all ST pointers are pointing North! Bund is looking it could go higher above 152.74, with decent volume or lack of selling, just holding on the highs should be enough for a move higher, but absorption will mean the opposite.
So Looking for some slowing of this buying bias not looking to stand in the way of this accumulating positive delta in the Eurostoxx.
Plus this move down if its on... to 3450, means plenty of scope to get in on the correct setup. Need to be patient
Looking primed for leg higher in Stox, Bund has broken has absorbed alot of buying, so has retreated, but still holding on high
Looking for a setup if it breaks 3549, then when it trys to rally and there is no volume (buying), short on a positive delta imbalance. Done ,No trade otherwise
Reason for the 3549 because it has made a bullish candle on the 60 min and the 500 rick Range chart with the break at 3549, buying has come in above and there has been some absorption at 3558, alot actually. Bund has done the same, but could be building to go again.
EMini if that tests 2107-.75 and fails could start getting a case for this sell off
Pivotal price for market is 3555 Stoxx , EMini holds 2102 could have a little bounce and this rally will fail or succeed, or we sell off directly, will watch EMini
Absolutely no point in punting on a level, stuck to my rules, this journal did help me stick to the plan, went offered at 3559 and pulled it 3577 last chance saloon, done this one before ruin of a days trading, rather wait for confirmation, to much accumulating of positive delta. To stand in front of this.
No Trade
3572 first decent selling, absorbed at the moment will be vigilant at these prices
Draghi about to speak could be news worthy,
UK Jets to intercept Russian Jets!! in Uk Airspace
Break above 3586 looks like there could be a definite squeeze to 3611, there is a lot of positive delta from 3577-3583, the chart below looks like the open yesterday morning but the other way around, so consequently reluctant to buy open and wait and see mode, also Emini hasnt made new highs, although looks primed to go higher might be buyer at 3567.
Bund called higher, and the Euro is weakening which helps the Stoxx higher
might look to sell around 3610-3615, looking for some absorption before getting in, or would rather a pull back to a negative delta price, strong amount of positive delta accumulating already, before the cash open!
First Trade
Bought 3583 (should of waited for 3578, negative delta price) stopped at 3578, should of been more patient. Market now has had a lower high and there seems quiet a lot of absorption at 3583, could still rally as paper might asses this holding highs and attract buyers. To be honest not sure nothing clear .
Think I still want to be long
There a decent bearish ABC pattern forming in the Dax, but all other indicators are bullish Unirenko and the PAS vol indicator, 60 min Stox looks bullish, although a break below 3575 could send the market down, but similarly it could hold there and range, consolidate for a move higher, also rein in a little volatility,options trade sell Vol. Dax pattern is below,( Price Action Swing Indicator)
Undecided, no trade
The buying might start getting a little weary, if we dont move on or attract fresh buyers.!!
