i've read several post outside of BM trading and also read over the eratic strategy thread that Mike created. One big assumption is always made, which is, that on any give trade there are 50/50 chances of it to be a loser or a winner. Correct, that is correct. And the other assumption being made is that if we make 2x more money on our winners than our losers, at the end of the day we would make more money than we lose. I actually tested it using random number generator in excel. It works. It's a nice super awsome uptrending equity curve. However, in stock market, in order to make 2x more money, the price also has to travel 2x more. So as a result, you're winners and losers are not 50/50! Simply because price has to travel 2x more to hit your profit than to hit your loser. So you end up make a lot more losers due to probability being in favor to the closer distance (stoploss) than it to travel the longer distance (profit). In reality, i think in stock market for a random strategy that generates a long/short, your odds of successful trade if your target is 2x larger than stop, is more like 25 winners/75 losers. Thoughts?