Florida
Legendary Market Wizard
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: ES, NQ, CL
Posts: 703 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 2,898
Thanks Received: 2,525
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"less than 1 point " implies a profit target of 2 or 3 ticks
given that, what would your stop loss be on the trade ?
the larger your average stop loss, the greater your win% will have to be.
For example, lets say you use a 1:1 risk:reward profile and try for a 3 tick profit target with a 3 tick stop loss. In this case, your average winning trade nets you 2 1/2 ticks of profit after broker commissions and exchange fees. And your average losing trade costs you 3 1/2 ticks (including comm & fees). So in this case your winning percentage would have to greater than 60% to show any measurable profit.
Taking this one step further, let's say your trading 1 ES contract per trade attempt, and you can produce a 60% win rate with the 3 tick profit target:3 tick stop loss strategy. In a typical trading day perhaps you take 10 one lot scalp trades netting $37.50 (=$187.50 net profit - $150 net loss). So to achieve your "3 or 4 points" profit per day goal, (3 ES points = $150), you would need to trade a minimum of 40 contracts per day (where 40 contracts =$150 net profit per day / $3.75 net profit per contract). So you will have to figure out how many valid trade setups you see in a typical trading session, then work that number into your equation to figure out how many contracts per trade would be required to net out $150 per trading session.
Be Patient and Trade Smart |
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