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BenG's trading journal - STIRS markets

  #1 (permalink)
 
BenG's Avatar
 BenG 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7 and MT4
Trading: Dax, ES, FX, Gold and Oil but what Bund and Bobl also.
Posts: 106 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 108
Thanks Received: 126

Hi, welcome to my trading journal.

My trade plan trading Euribor futures.

Small size 1-10 contracts.
-Spread or fly trades only, no outrights (although this could be done fairly easily)
-Try to hedge as quickly as possible (This is often harder if you want good entries on both contracts as one will be at market at times)
-Use predominately orderflow for good entry opportunities.
-No more then 3 trades on at any given time.
-report each trade.

Large size 11-500 contracts.
-Spread or fly trades only, no outrights at all.
-Hedge as quickly as possible. (with this sort of size this become a lot more crucial in comparison to small size)
-Use orderflow and yield curve analyses for good entry and exit points.
-No more then 3 trades on at any given time.
-Aim to make 2 or 3 really good trades, rather then 6-8 short trades.(ie let the profit run rather then taking 1 tick on each contract, aim for higher).
-report each trade.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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  #3 (permalink)
 
BenG's Avatar
 BenG 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7 and MT4
Trading: Dax, ES, FX, Gold and Oil but what Bund and Bobl also.
Posts: 106 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 108
Thanks Received: 126


Today trades

1 - ER4ER6 spread 50 lot clip each - unbalanced orderflow entry, yield curve in high range.
2 - ER3ER5 spread 50 lot clip each - unbalanced orderflow entry, yield curve in high range.
3 - ER4ER7 spread 50 lot clip each - Good volatility in ER4 and ER7 upon initial entry.

These sort of trading days suit this slow paced style trading very well. Although I entered quite late in the markets, I was watching it from 7am this morning. Throughout the day there where plenty of good opportunities to enter the market. It's not so common for ER3 and ER4 to be in the opposite direction and the same goes for ER5 and ER6. Normally when I look at the yield curve I either see it being up, down or sideways. Today was a slightly unbalanced day. ER3 and ER4 had opposite orderflow analysis as did ER5 and ER6 when compared to each other. Although I often trade these same contracts, today the market was o/s in ER3 and ER6 yet o/b in ER4 and ER5. I took the first 2 positions very close to each other, and to spread the risk in a more balanced way rather then trading ER3ER4 I decided to trade ER3 with ER5, and ER4 with ER6. ER4 was moving the most and I got filled very quickly on both the entry and exit. This opened the door for ER4 to be used again in another trade, as it was still in a similar position as when I entered. I decided to go for ER7, but as I was getting filled in ER4, ER7 started to move out of balance. For me this meant that the ideal entry position for this contract had already passed and it was no longer a suitable candidate to be used at that given moment in time. It wasn't until later in the afternoon when I started to get some fills here.

Thus far in trade one I got filled on both entry and exit 50 lots on ER4 and got filled 50 lots on entry on ER6 and I'm currently still holding 21 positions waiting to be filled. In the second trade ER3ER5 I got filled on both entry and exit 40 lots on ER3 and 50 lot on both in ER5. In the 3rd trade I have been filled on both in ER4, and currently have been filled on entry for 31 lots in ER7 and on exit 20. I will monitor these positions over the next few hours and then close them accordingly. Ideally I want to be finished by around 4-5 pm but with larger size I find this a lot more difficult to do. Much easier on 10 lot clips to do.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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Nice job journaling @BenG.

I want to let you and all your readers know that in October nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) has a Trading Journal contest w/prizes. The contest runs October 1 to October 31, and the three best journals (as decided by nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) members) will receive a 150K combine from TopstepTrader.

The contest thread is here:



That thread will be open for posting starting Wednesday, October 1. As the author of your journal, you need to make a post in that thread linking to your journal, and then ask users to press the "Thanks" button on that post if they want to vote for your journal to win the contest.

Members can vote for as many different journals as they want. Votes are cast in the Contest thread only, and only on the first post made by the author of the journal that contains a link to their journal. This is done so I can easily count the "Thanks Received" by author/journal, and award the three prizes.

Mike

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  #5 (permalink)
 
BenG's Avatar
 BenG 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7 and MT4
Trading: Dax, ES, FX, Gold and Oil but what Bund and Bobl also.
Posts: 106 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 108
Thanks Received: 126

Trades

1 - ER4ER6 spread 50 lot clip each - unbalanced orderflow entry, yield curve in high range.
2 - ER3ER5 spread 50 lot clip each - unbalanced orderflow entry, yield curve in high range.
3 - ER4ER7 spread 50 lot clip each - Good volatility in ER4 and ER7 upon initial entry.

Results

1 - ER4ER6 = total 79+, ER4 = 40 ticks, ER6 = 29 ticks.
2 - ER3ER5 = total 92+, ER3 = 42 ticks, ER5 = 50 ticks.
3 - ER4ER7 = total 81+, ER4 = 50 ticks, ER7 = 31 ticks.

Reason for trading

1 and 2 - unbalanced orderflow with the yield curve/price in a high range.
3 - ER4 unbalanced orderflow, ER7 however was more volatile and initial hedge entry missed.

Emotions

It took me a while to enter the market this morning, generally I enter fairly early on. I'm on my desk from around 7am, sometimes a bit later. The initial 2 were very clear trades, no emotion behind it. When ER4 had filled both entry and exit of 50 lots, I became eager to make another trade with it. My lack of patience and my eagerness to enter resulted in ER4 being filled on both entry and exit very quickly, however as I'm spread trading my hedge wasn't being met. On reflection I should have reconsidered the last trade more carefully despite the fact that it was a nice profitable trade. I should have either chosen another contract immediately when I entered ER4 and saw ER7 out of place, or hedge regardless. The latter option wouldn't have been a good choice and I would have gone for another contract.



Overall a profit of 265 ticks.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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  #6 (permalink)
 
BenG's Avatar
 BenG 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7 and MT4
Trading: Dax, ES, FX, Gold and Oil but what Bund and Bobl also.
Posts: 106 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 108
Thanks Received: 126


Big Mike View Post
Nice job journaling @BenG.

I want to let you and all your readers know that in October nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) has a Trading Journal contest w/prizes. The contest runs October 1 to October 31, and the three best journals (as decided by nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) members) will receive a 150K combine from TopstepTrader.

The contest thread is here:



That thread will be open for posting starting Wednesday, October 1. As the author of your journal, you need to make a post in that thread linking to your journal, and then ask users to press the "Thanks" button on that post if they want to vote for your journal to win the contest.

Members can vote for as many different journals as they want. Votes are cast in the Contest thread only, and only on the first post made by the author of the journal that contains a link to their journal. This is done so I can easily count the "Thanks Received" by author/journal, and award the three prizes.

Mike

Thanks Mike, I've already posted my journal link in the contest. Although I might not actually be able to use the combine with what I'm trading. If in any case I do win and I can't use it, I will pass the reward on to whomever would have been next in line for the price. I think that would only be fair.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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  #7 (permalink)
 
BenG's Avatar
 BenG 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7 and MT4
Trading: Dax, ES, FX, Gold and Oil but what Bund and Bobl also.
Posts: 106 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 108
Thanks Received: 126

Trades

1 - ER3ER4 spread 50 lot clips
2 - ER5ER6 spread 50 lot clips
3 - ER7ER8 spread 50 lot clips
4 - ER5ER6 spread 50 lot clips
5 - ER3ER4 spread 50 lot clips

Results

1- ER3ER4 = total 62, ER3 = 34, ER4 = 28.
2- ER5ER6 = total 57+, ER5 = 43, ER6 = 14.
3- ER7ER8 = total 85+, ER7 = 35, ER8 = 50+
4- ER5ER6 = total 50+, ER5 = 50+, ER6 = 5.
5- ER3ER4 = total 50+, ER3 = 50+, ER4 = 41.

Reason

1- Good orderflow opportunities during the morning hours.
2- Good orderflow opportunities during the morning and taking around the same time as trade 1.
3- Good orderflow opportunities during the morning even before the ECB news release.
4- Put this hedge on before the news release to test how hedges work before major news release.
5- Put this hedge on before the news release to test how hedges work before major news release.

In general I would not trade during news releases, or just before news releases. I however wanted to test to find out how spread trades react. Overall it was fine, but I find its better to wait, or wait before exiting positions. When I put on the last 2 trades I got filled fairly quickly on my entry. I had to wait until the speech was over (something I don't have access too at the moment). The market didn't really react before that as much. At around 2pm the market started to react. I initially saw the orderflow with a sell bias. It came down around 4 ticks or so, and then moved back up to roughly 1 tick below my entry. I managed to exit on my sell trades, both ER4 and ER8 where filled really quickly. I still have ER6 and ER7 open and I'm monitoring these until the close and then exit it them wherever they are.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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rleplae's Avatar
 rleplae 
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
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BenG View Post
Trades

1 - ER3ER4 spread 50 lot clips
2 - ER5ER6 spread 50 lot clips
3 - ER7ER8 spread 50 lot clips
4 - ER5ER6 spread 50 lot clips
5 - ER3ER4 spread 50 lot clips

Results

1- ER3ER4 = total 62, ER3 = 34, ER4 = 28.
2- ER5ER6 = total 57+, ER5 = 43, ER6 = 14.
3- ER7ER8 = total 85+, ER7 = 35, ER8 = 50+
4- ER5ER6 = total 50+, ER5 = 50+, ER6 = 5.
5- ER3ER4 = total 50+, ER3 = 50+, ER4 = 41.

Reason

1- Good orderflow opportunities during the morning hours.
2- Good orderflow opportunities during the morning and taking around the same time as trade 1.
3- Good orderflow opportunities during the morning even before the ECB news release.
4- Put this hedge on before the news release to test how hedges work before major news release.
5- Put this hedge on before the news release to test how hedges work before major news release.

In general I would not trade during news releases, or just before news releases. I however wanted to test to find out how spread trades react. Overall it was fine, but I find its better to wait, or wait before exiting positions. When I put on the last 2 trades I got filled fairly quickly on my entry. I had to wait until the speech was over (something I don't have access too at the moment). The market didn't really react before that as much. At around 2pm the market started to react. I initially saw the orderflow with a sell bias. It came down around 4 ticks or so, and then moved back up to roughly 1 tick below my entry. I managed to exit on my sell trades, both ER4 and ER8 where filled really quickly. I still have ER6 and ER7 open and I'm monitoring these until the close and then exit it them wherever they are.

Was nice talking on the phone today
It helped me understand better your work.

Would love to see some trigger points and understand the triggers
if it can be automated at all ?

For sure, fixed income futures are underexposed on futures.io (formerly BMT) and some demystification could probably help the community
personally i like the instrument as a portfolio diversification and risk reduction method

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
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  #9 (permalink)
 
BenG's Avatar
 BenG 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7 and MT4
Trading: Dax, ES, FX, Gold and Oil but what Bund and Bobl also.
Posts: 106 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 108
Thanks Received: 126


rleplae View Post
Was nice talking on the phone today
It helped me understand better your work.

Would love to see some trigger points and understand the triggers
if it can be automated at all ?

For sure, fixed income futures are underexposed on futures.io (formerly BMT) and some demystification could probably help the community
personally i like the instrument as a portfolio diversification and risk reduction method

Likewise, it was good speaking to you as well. Despite being in the same industry, it still has such a huge area of diversity.
I haven't yet played around with TT and its strategy function. I know they've made it to be really simple for those of us that haven't got programming experience. For me the initial trigger point is always orderflow readings. So what I look for in a setup is 2 contracts with opposite orderflow readings. ie one with an o/s and another with an o/b reading, ideally no more then 1 year of difference between the 2 contract. I only really use the 3rd till 8th month anyway, the first and second are just not that good for trading. The other main aspect I look at is how the yield curve is functioning. This I find more important for larger quantities, and not so relevant for small quantities. Generally it's fairly easy to get in and out of small sizes. I will take some screen shot of my trade entries tomorrow so you can visualise it much better. I don't use charts and indicators, just MD Trader and a spreadsheet for the yield curve. Perhaps understanding the reasoning behind it, and seeing it might help to understand whether this could be automated.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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BenG's Avatar
 BenG 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7 and MT4
Trading: Dax, ES, FX, Gold and Oil but what Bund and Bobl also.
Posts: 106 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 108
Thanks Received: 126


Testing trades of previous day could have been a better result, provided I had looked for a better way of exiting them. As I was impatient and wanted to get out of the trade, I gave most of the ticks i gained in one contract, back in the other. Overall the day was still alright, still managed to take home 330 ticks. Starting on Monday I will take some screenshot of entry triggers for me, to help those who read my journal understand the way I trade, and the things I look for when I look for entries. I noticed that with this sort of trading (ie trading Euribor rather then lets say Bund or Crude), I struggle more to exit. Often in Euribor as it's moving a few against you in a spread you can take another position in the contract that went against you when you see a turning point in the orderflow. This is generally not a good thing to do, but in such a liquid market such as Euribor it's in general very easy to do. This then however makes me more prone to always do it, rather then simply exit. For now though it's not my biggest concern. What I need to stick to is no overnight positions, this is the most important thing. When trading small clip sizes I don't seem to struggle with this, but as soon as you're looking at 50 lot clip or more, I often end up with to many contract unfilled at the end of the day. So it's either adjusting my entry and exit in such a way that it become easier for me to exit, or take less positions. The latter doesn't necessarily means you won't have the same problem, so I will have to focus on fine tuning my entries especially, this will make exiting easier by default. Let's hope next week will be a better week, in which my trading will make more improvements. Over the course of the weekend I can start thinking about how I'm going to achieve these goals.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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