THE REVERSAL STOP WAS CONCLUDED TO BE UNSTABLE AS OF 6-14-14
A NEW STOP HAS BEEN INITIATED, THE NEW STOP IS A BAR COUNT AT A 88 to 98 % SUCCESS RATE
THE 2100bar060814TLSRCH RESEARCH WILL RESUME UNDER A NEW STOP 6-14-14
ALL CURRENT TRADES WILL BE SCATCHED EVEN THOUGH MOST ARE PROFITABLE
a bar by bar process was conducted Friday 6-13-14 thru Saturday 6-14-14,
test period beginning 1-10-2010 and reached the conclusion by the 3rd month that the stop was unstable and not tradable. The problem was only the stop and not the entry. the entry proves to be strong.
The bar count stop and cupandhandle will begin 6-14-2014
a simple bar count may be the ticket.
A trade Journal on researching a combination of patterns trade, non optimized, filtered, end of day, sp500, sp400, nasdaq100 and the dow30. Past tests as well as current hits will be posted. System is currently working with a combined list, apprx 1000 symbols. May that list be separated and tested. ALL TRADES ARE IN PAPER MODE.
DO NOT TRADE BASED ON POSTED RESULTS. THIS IS ONLY A TEST.
Back test time frames will be daily bar.
Calendar periods will be singular and noted, currently working with a 2006 start date or 2100 bars, this was to catch the 2008 down draft.
Initial results produced 89 % hit rate on the limited number of 254 trades that it produced.
The current patterns of focus are TRENDLINE, SUPPORT & RESISTANCE, CUP and HANDLE
Utilizing a combination of patterns and a combination of sizes of these patterns they are given a score based on successful trade, "hits". filtered by this score to create a higher probability list. This list is then cleared to trade.
this is a mechanical setting. computerized scoring. Back ground testing is on going.
there is no fitting, yet there is a variable size of patterns that are fixed.
Todays date is 06/08/2014
I will post a research test id with its activity. example 2100bar060814TLSRCH and or "bars,date,pattern".
I will try to post as live as possible , yet the filter only produces a viable result upon the close of the daily bar.
Entry and Exit will be considered between market close and market open . uses a bar close break confirmation process.
An entry and exit is a confirmed closed bar
trades average 14 days.
**an ALERT is a setup , not an entry and needs to confirm, to confirm, a continuation closed bar beyond the high or low is needed
The system allows for long and short. I have tested with long only and got a lower return. My thinking of allowing both long and short and getting better results may be due to filtering weak longs that fall in score by failing its short trade, nice.
2006 2100 bar test period produced 3 shorts out of 258 or so trades.
Trade size utilizes 2 reports , 10k per and 10% of equity.
account size is 100k no margin.
current results
Until there appears to be a proven track record all i can do is post its current hits, there will be times where i miss the live hit post, and consider it a late post. I will label it it as hit date, post date. best i can do.