Market oscillated between VAL (1116-1118.5) and 1122.5 I think. My charts are down after hours!
1. I didn't put the trade on to buy 1116.5 area which was the bottom.
2. I started scaling in a sell from 1124.5-1126.7. I scaled out on one of the 2 lots I put on and then prices broke higher. Once we were above the VAH of yesterday, I flipped my bias and bought 1126.9 and 1126.1 using 1125.5 area near IB high as support. I got out for 15 ticks here making back my loss.
3. After waiting a long time the market grinded higher and I still didn't want to fade the trend. I did have 1131.2 as another level, which I should've put on a sell for 1 lot because the risk was so small and we'd already hit the first IB target of the day. So that's the second trade I didn't put on.
4. The market pulled back to 1126.3 where I bought again looking for a bell curve to hold above the IB high and previous value. Took profit in the middle of the curve for 15 ticks and watched the market close.
I didn't like the 2 no trades when I had a signal. I have to focus on the price action and risk associated with my signals rather than taking other trader's opinions assuming the market would continue down. It might, but it was definitely worth the small risk to make 30-40 ticks.
What I did like was the patience I had. I waited for the market to come to me and actually put a trend trade on, which I'm usually terrible at. I'm a fader, but I knew that trade was worth a shot. I didn't put many trades on today (only 5) because I saw the trend and saw that the probability of closing strong was high.
Tmrw:
If open w/in VA:
Use 1125.5-1126.5 area as minor support consider it's the closing bell curve VAL. Maybe the day's VPOC at 1124.2 is the better fade for an overlap rotation higher. I would think prices would break 1131.2 and if they do I'd look for the VPOC of the consolidation area on the 15min at 1135.5 (FT71 has 1136.6). Then 1139.7-1141.5 area is the previous consolidation area VAH which would be worth a fade to scale in to.
If open above VA:
Use VPOC of bell curve possibly for support if the market does an open test drive scenario. If not then use 1126.7-1125.5. If prices stay higher instead,
If open below VA: My charts are down and I would need to make sure of this, but I think 1121.3 is last resort support as there's a single print starting there from today. Then I'd have the LVN as support at 1123.5 I think. Of course if that breaks I'd target the 1118.5-1116 area again where buyers have held the last couple days.
We have jobless claims and ECB press conference at 7:30am CST. There might be an opportunity there but if not I'd use the overnight action as an idea for what's likely to happen at the open.