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I recently signed up for a combine tryout with Topstep Trader. I thought I'd share my trades and thoughts with everyone here at Big Mike's. I'll be posting the trades I took, my EOD chart markup (ie. hindsight entries, etc), and my realtime chart reading.
Who I Am & My Approach:
I scalp the ES using price action on a 3000 tick chart. I'm an Al Brooks student and have found his approach to be best suited to my personality/skill set. Although I consider Al to be my main source of knowledge, it wouldn't be fair if I didn't mention Mack from PATs Trading as well. He exposed me to tick charts and their benefits, even though I do not trade exclusively using his chart, system, or rules.
I've been studying trading price action for about 16 months now, and I've traded sim for about 6 with mixed results. I have good instincts and the ability to process price action quickly in realtime, but often have trouble taking a trade for psychological reasons - which is something I hope the combine will help me improve upon.
I'll update this section with more about my trading plan as it develops. For now, here are the limits set for my account by TsT, and the limits I've set for myself.
TsT Limits:
Max position size: 5 contracts Daily Loss Limit: 1000
Max Drawdown: 2000
Profit Goal: 3500
Days To Complete: 20
Average Daily Profit Target: 3.5pts
Entry Approach, Management & Goals:
For now, I am trading 1 contract and scalping for 2 points per trade. I use a protective stop one tick above/below the signal bar, and in general, I will risk no more than 2pts on a trade. I will risk more on a strong breakout, but not too much. Once the trade creates a strong entry bar/bar in my direction, I move my stop to one tick above/below that bar. I try very hard to let the trade play out without revising targets or stops otherwise. I prefer to enter on stops at one tick above/below the signal bar as much as possible.
Trading hours: 9:30am - 12:30pm EST
Profit Goals: 4 points/day, 3 winning trades, or 3 consecutive losing trades; whichever comes first
More details on the specific setups I prefer will come later on.
There will be tons of abbreviations from Al Brooks site, so please feel free to ask if something is unclear.
Legend: Blue boxes are trades that I did not take. I may or may not have seen them in realtime. Orange boxes are trades that I did take. The grey EMA is the 60 minute 20EMA plotted on the 3000 tick chart. The brown EMA is the 15 minute 20EMA plotted on the 3000 tick chart. The orange EMA is the 20EMA of the 3000 tick itself.
Realtime Chart Read
36 - BP B but might be at top of developing TR. Not alot of OVL in overnight so not clear if TR.
38 - 3 good bull bars so prob AIL.
39 - BO above DT 3, 31 but tail on top.
40 - W 20, 31 but PROB will fail since very strong buying pressure. Maybe spike and channel from 28 BO spike.
42 - 2es W but 3 OVLN bars. Prob more up since strong spike and AIL. Want to buy PB
44 - bear BO, but right above MA and possible bull TL below.
46 - lower low than 37L, so looking for shorts now. Bear bar COL well below MA.
49 - Starting to look more like TR -eg. BOs failing to get FT, flat MA, sideways TTR movement.
51 - BP S, strong bar RB turning down from MA and bull TL. Failed H2 47. [MISSED ENTRY: also wanted to wait since report at 10am]
52 - good FT from 51 but report at 10am and close to 15MA.
54 - sell off on report, but at MM and TCL. Will wait a few minutes before trading to let MKT settle.
58 - good buying pressure back to MA and beak of bear TL. Will short L2 at MA or wait for 2eb near 55 low and bottom of probable TR.
61 - L2 59, but tail on bottom and above MA. Decent buying pressure, so better to wait. Might get 2LD from 42-55 since in TC. But probably won’t if TR day.
64 - 2eb from break above TL, but too much down to go long. Need another 2eb or strong bull BO.
65 - strong bull BO. [TRADE 1 - bought the close of the bar]
66 - bad FT, and W 48, 60. But one tick body so probably will fail. Hold long with stop below 65.
67 - BP B, good looking reversal bar. Tighten stop to one tick below 67.
68 - 2pt PT filled on this bar.
70 - MM based on height of TR that BO came from, puts MKT at new HOD by one tick. Looks more and more like TR day. Price rotating back and forth around MA.
72 - bull iii, but mostly dojis. BP B, might work but not sure so wait. If I took it, I’d be looking for 2nd leg to MM and new HOD.
76 - another spike above MM and HOD. Might be a broad bull channel working up.
77 - failed BO HOD, but too much momentum up. Also not to top of broader bull channel if there is one. Need 2es.
79 - 2es but only one tick bear body. Not alot of selling pressure since 63 so prob more up. Want a better correction and to buy PB.
82 - TRI B but doji and at no obvious support. Wait for better correction.
84 - failed TRI BO, MW 76, 80. I still want to buy lower unless good selling pressure appears. TTR most likely right now.
88 - MDT 87. Might test down to MA, but I’d rather wait and look to buy PB there. Still looking for test of top of broad channel and possibly MM based on height of failed MW and TTR.
90 - 3 good bear bars. Might get 20 gap bar buy setup at MA since protracted bull trend and possibly SPB.
91 - 4 good bears bars and no price rejection at MA. But might setup MAG bar buy. Might be AIS and prob 2nd leg down from here. LL than 82L
92 - 2BR but probably sellers above. Looking for this to fail and setup a L1 with bear signal bar.
93 - good bull bar. Might be going back to test the highs and top of broad channel.
94 - strong bear RB but couldn’t close below MA. MKT very sideways right now and hard to trade. Probably better to wait for more PA and clarity.
End of Day Review:
Not a bad day. I took one trade; walked away with one winner and 2 points. I need to improve on taking the trades that I see in realtime. I get worried and hesitate, which causes me to miss many winners. I also need to be more thorough in looking for broader channels on the chart. If I had found the larger bull TL earlier in the day, I probably would have taken the 2eb.
Trade A: passed
TRI S 11, 15
Failed BO bear TL
Failed BO top of TTR 10-20
Expecting test of bottom of bull channel (orange line) since TCL overshoot on 5
Expecting 2LD from 9 bear BO possibly to L1=L2 MM target
Expecting test of 18L at minimum since first break of bear TL
Trade B: loss, -8 ticks
L2 26
Price failing at 3000Tick MA & 60min MA
Thoughts & Review:
I took this trade and was stopped out for 2 points on bar 32. I think I was unhappy because I passed on trade A. So, impulsively, I took this trade even though I saw the overlap and knew MKT was low in what might be a TR day. However, I did not see the MM target in realtime. Right after I put the trade on, the possibility of this failing and creating a W occurred to me. Maybe I should have exited then - still not sure on that. Instinctively, I knew I should get out BE when I saw bar 30, even though I couldn’t find the reason at that time exactly. But I held on and lost.
This mistake clouded my vision for the next 45 minutes or so, and then I hesitated the rest of the day. I’ve been hesitating and not taking good trades all week, so I think part of the issue with this trade was that I was attempting to break that pattern.
Trade C: passed
W 10, 26
2eb 26 for failed BO of bull TL (orange line)
Failed L2 26, 28 (might be trapped bears)
Bull ioi at bottom of TR and bull channel
Reversal at MM target after 2LD from 6H after break of short term bear TL
Bouncing at new, flatter bull channel TL
TRI 10-20 FF reversal
First break of bull TL (orange), so expecting test of 6H
Expecting 2 legs sideways to up
Expecting test back into TRI
Thoughts:
I did not see this in realtime because I was trapped short from Trade B. I would have been concerned about the overlap and possibility of a TTR below the MA. However, location and context were good - plus the addition of trapped bears.
Trade D: passed
strong bull BO from MA and W bottom
Expecting 2LU after W bottom
Expecting test of 6H since first break of bull TL (orange)
TC up, so probably still early in 1st leg from W - eg. means I’m getting in earlier so there’s room left for the scalp
Thoughts:
Didn’t take this one. My biggest concerns would have been: 1) already back into the middle of the TRI 10-20, and 2) there is a possible bear TL from 6H to 21H very close to entry (not shown). At this point, I had the new bull TCL anchored to the 21H, so I would have been looking for a test of the top of the channel and HOD. With that premise, there was plenty of room to take this BO trade.
Trade E: passed
2eb for failed BO DT 20, 35 (eg. 2eb failed BO above swing high on TR day)
Failed BO bull TCL
Bull TCL overshoot
MDT 40
2LU from W bottom
Prior break of TL created by bull spike 32-36
Expecting 2LD to test bull TL since TCL overshoot
Thoughts:
I didn’t like the SB on this one with that big tail on the bottom. Also concerned about lack of selling pressure. But TRD, so this may be all I get. Appearance of bull strength was probably just caused by sellers waiting until top of channel was tested. Bar 42 was a much better signal and probably ok to enter there.
Trade F: passed
Strong bear BO, COL
Close well below MA and 15min MA
Plenty of room to bull TL for scalp
Maybe start of 2LD
Thoughts:
This trade would not hit a 2pt PT. But I would have moved it up to 1 tick above bull TL since I expected a bounce there.
Trade G: passed
2eb bottom of TR (H2)
Failed H1, so maybe trapped bears again
Bounce right off bull TL
Reversal at MM target
Strong bull RB
Thoughts:
I would have been concerned about the fact that there was no significant break of the short term bear TL. But TRD, so probably just buy vacuum test of bottom of TR instead of strong bear. Plus, this was a 2eb at multiple support levels at the bottom of the TR.
Hesitated and missed it….
Trade H: passed
Strong bull BO from bottom of TR
COH, well above MA
Expecting test of bull TCL
Hesitated and missed it….
Trade I: passed
Failed BO bull TCL
Failed BO HOD
New HOD on TR day
Bull TCL overshoot
W 55, 57
Reversal at MM target
Prior (but weak) break of short term bull TL 51-55
Thoughts:
I really wanted to take this trade, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger. By this point, I decided my psychology was messed up too much to continue trading. I’m BE in the combine after 3 days, but I’ve only taken 3 trades. I have to take more trades and stop hesitating. Will read up on overcoming fear in trading this weekend. I also need to focus more, so that I can see more PA in realtime.
Realtime Chart Read
16 - L2 12
18 - TRI 9, 13. Too much overlap and TTR. Better to wait for a BO and clearer direction. Appears to be low volume day so far from overnight data.
20 - BO of TTR but big tail on top, so probably failed BO. Might setup TRI S for 2LD from 9 bear BO.
21 - bear IB, failed BO TTR, TRI 11,15 but right above MAs. Might test bottom of channel tho. I probably will wait since MKT moves on open and has reversals usually. First break of bear TL so should test low. But TTR overrules everything else right now for me.
24 - BP S but very close to channel line and at bottom of TTR.
27 - sideways at bull TCL, so bears not as strong as they could be. But TC down. At possible L1=L2 MM.
28 - L2 28. [TRADE1]
29 - W 22, 25 but big doji and failing at MA. Hold short for now.
31 - TTR. Will hold short since MKT has weak buying pressure and failing at MA and bull TCL.
32 - stopped out for 2point loss on this bar. Mistake: shorted near a MM target and near the bull TCL. Should have exited BE as soon as I saw bar 30 since TTR was more likely than move down at that point. Also did not see possible bear TCL so close below. This was probably an impulse trade and I should not have taken it. I was probably upset that I missed taking the TRI at 21 and the BP S at 24.
36 - strong bull BO. Probably will test overnight H and top of bull channel. Prob TRD - lots of overlap, BOs up and down. Might get l1=l2 based on size of 2-5
37 - DT20, but too much buying pressure. Need 2es, but still targets above.
39 - more overlap and TTR. Too high to buy and too much buying pressure to short. BTW.
43 - BP B but doji following 2 bear bars. Also high in a possible TRD.
44 - bear bar COL, but right at MA and bottom of TTR. Bull TL also very close.
45 - H2 43, but doji and not a lot of buying pressure in last 5 bars.
46 - bear BO but missed it.
48 - H1 but right above 60MA and getting close to bottom of TR. Might still be in broad bull channel. So I want to buy but too much down so need 2eb.
50 - L1 but at bottom of TR. Should fail. Also at multiple support levels.
52 - bull BO. TRD because signs of strength are failing. Looks like the broad bull channel from yesterday has flattened out some since still making higher lows and highs. Waiting for 2eb near bottom of range to buy for test up.
53 - BP S but one tick body and tail on bottom. Should fail, but I want to wait for a test down and 2eb near bottom of range.
54 - looks like bulls bought the close of 53. Probably won’t get 2eb from bottom of TR.
55 - strong bull BO, but at top of TR so should fail. Also not much room to overnight H or top of channel. Wait for failure and maybe 2es.
58 - DT 40, 2es at top of TR. But no break of steep bull TL for this leg yet. Would like to see it break above HOD by a tick and then fail in a bear RB. So close to top of channel that MKT probably has to get there.
62 - BO above TCL, overnight H, and MM target. W 55, 57. But TC up. Better to wait for more selling pressure 2es or strong bear BO.
63 - failed BO HOD, top of channel, bear IB, 2BR, but want 2es since TC up. Possible FF 58.
66 - 4 bear bars down, but not strong tail = small bodies, tails on bottom. bear BO but probably will fail since TR day. Bounced at 15min MA Want to short PB from BO near top of range for 2es.
67 - bull IB, BP B but no close above MA. Might setup BP S for 2LD from 63-66 to test bottom of bull channel.
Trade A:
W 3, 13
TCL overshoot
Good bear RB
2LU from 5-12 bull spike
Thoughts & Review:
At the top of possible TR or bull channel. But if TR why couldn’t the bears push MKT down on 18 for 2es failed BO above MDT 103-104 Y and 2es failed BO above 3SH?
I’m not sure if I would take this trade or not.
Trade B:
MDT 22-23
H2 (since MDB and all DB are H2; see inset for actual H2 on smaller timeframe chart)
Bull RB at multiple support (TL, EMA, and 15min EMA)
Thoughts & Review:
There were 4 bear bars down, but MKT couldn’t close below EMAs or below the bull TL. Since TC down, there was a chance this would bounce and set up a 2es for the W top. But since the bears had several chances to show strength and failed, I thought MKT was probably going higher and we’d get failed W and possibly MM up, if bulls had strength on the BO.
I thought buying any close like 25, 26, 28 was risky without using swing/wide stop since there was possible resistance at 20H and HOY. MKT was probably in bull channel, so I’d want to buy a PB near TL or EMA to prevent needing to use a wider stop.
Trade C:
BP B from 24-31 BO
Smaller timeframe H2 Reversing from steeper TL drawn off of 24-25Ls
Expecting 2LU from 24-31 BO, test of HOY, and probably bull TCL
Might have trapped bears who shorted at 29-30 looking for W 13, 20 Breakout test 20H failed W top
Thoughts & Review:
This trade was more aggressive since TL was not obvious, near HOY, and at top of bigger TR. There was a chance that bears would get S for failed BO HOY. But bears had been failing when they had good signals, so I thought up was more likely. I also thought 24-31 was strong enough to warrant 2LU and probably test bull TCL at minimum. Also on the 5min chart, MKT was forming strong bull spike with no selling pressure.
Trade D:
BP B from 32-36 BO
Good bull reversal bar
Maybe trapped bears looking for reversal at TCL based on 37
Targets above and room to them
Thoughts & Review:
I would not have taken this trade because the TCL was so close. MKT also had consecutive buy climaxes, so I thought the chance of a PB was too big for a tight stop, and I wanted to buy lower.
Trade E:
Consecutive buy climaxes
Failed BO TCL
ii FF 41, 42
At MM targets
Expecting test of MA and bull TL (since TCL overshoot)
Thoughts & Review:
I would not have taken this trade since the trend up was strong. I thought 24-46 was probably a bull spike, and this overshoot would lead to a bull channel instead of a reversal. Given the climactic nature of the move up, I did think the pullback would be deeper and large enough for a scalp. But there was too much chance of TTR and sideways to EMA. I would also worry about missing the trend resumption if I had taken it, so I’d pass. Bull strength was obvious on 5min.
Trade F:
BP B from H2 BO (50, 52)
Trapped bears from 53 signal for leg down to TL (from E overshoot)
First break of steeper bull TL from 24-46, so expecting test of HOD
Thoughts & Review:
At this point, I thought the MKT was probably going into a broader channel up from the 24-46 spike. Again the bears failed to get any FT on a decent signal. 54 went one tick below 53, trapping bears and then reversing up. There was a chance that the 52 H2 would fail and test bull TL. But this was a BP from that, so the probability increased for the bulls since bears were clearly weak.
Trade G:
TRI B 61, 64, 68
H2 64, 68
20 Gap bar B
At EMA and bull TL
Expecting at least one more push up in bull channel for W
Still no break of bigger bull TL (blue)
Thoughts & Review:
At this point, MKT might even be in SPB bull trend, so buying this high was probably safe. There wasn’t much selling pressure and virtually all bear signals failed then reversed. Otherwise, with more selling pressure and bigger PBs, this trade would have been riskier.
Trade H:
BP B from 69-70 TRI BO
Bears failed again
Bull RB at bull TL
Thoughts & Review:
Bears had a chance to generate a TRI FF short signal on 70 with W 46, 59 in channel, but they failed again. There was room to either TCL for a scalp and risk was very small.
Realtime Chart Read
20 - W 3, 13. TCL overshoot. At the top of possible TR or bull channel. But if TR why couldn’t the bears push MKT down on 18 for 2es failed BO above MDT 103-104 Y and 2es failed BO above 3SH? I am going to wait for more PA and clearer S/R
22 - 3 bars down so probably SA, and maybe TR since signs of strength failing. Might get 2LD to test 15L = bottom of W. Want to see what happens there and at MAs
25 - 2 good bull bars up. if W fails might get MM up based on height of fW. But might get one more push up and then failure. Possible spike and channel from 5-12 spike. Channel from 15L and up to 3 pushes.
28 - 6 bars up, so probably bull channel. Waiting to buy PB.
29 - W, 3 pushes up in channel, but doji. Better to pass on sell signals for now until more evidence of TR. 1 tick from HOY, so may PB or reverse tho.
32 - failed L2, H1 but not at support. Wait for 2LD near MA or TL to buy.
36 - failed BO bull TCL, OD bar, COL, consecutive buy climaxes. Waiting for 2es since strong up or buy lower.
42 - MDT, at l1=l2 MM target, RB but bull body, ii pattern so may setup final flag. Consecutive buy climaxes so probably deeper PB soon. Very TC up.
46 - getting lots of overlap and dojis. Probably sideways for a while to EMA and better to wait for clarity.
49 - bear BO and FT. Probably 2LD due to consecutive buy climaxes and possible final flag top.
50 - H1 but 3 bars down and consecutive buy climaxes. Should get one more leg down. Looking to buy H2 near MA or TL.
52 - H2 but overlap and not to MA/TL. Tail on top and too close to HOD. Need bigger PB to buy.
End of Day Review:
I have to eat a better breakfast and get more sleep. I need to be very alert on the open, so that I can take the trades I see and better control my impulses. Overall, not a bad read of the PA today, especially when sleepy. I'm also happy that I made the decision to avoid trading today, which shows developing discipline. Plan for this week after trading is to begin putting together a more cohesive trading plan - complete with examples of trade setups that I like the best.
Trade A
H2 32
Failed L2 24, 31
At multiple support: bull TL, 20 EMA, and 15min EMA
Good bull reversal bar, close near high
Multiple targets above: MM, 10 SH, and longer term bear TL (orange)
Thoughts & Review:
MKT has in been in a TR for several days. Overnight MKT went down and up, so probably confusion and likely a TR day today. But the range is big, so should give decent swings intraday today.
Although there was some overlap, MKT has good movement and big range overnight, so this trade would probably work. The channel up was tight, and there was plenty of room to the top of the range.
Trade B:
Failed BO above 10SH by one tick
Failed BO above longer term bear TL (orange)
FF H2 34
At MM target and near top of TR
Thoughts & Review:
I thought this trade was aggressive, and I probably would not have taken it. I would want to see a 2es or strong BO since the channel up was tight. However, if the bear stops were right above the 10H, why didn’t the MKT surge up once it went 1 tick above and hit those stops? Probably because the bears were defending their stops and selling more. Location and context were both good, but I just wanted more info and signs of bear strength before shorting.
Trade C:
2es failed BO bear TL
2es failed BO above 10SH
DT 40
Top of TR
Thoughts & Review:
Aggressive and pass. Although context was good, the signal bar was a doji reversal bar with a bull body. Also, the low of the signal bar was right at the bull TL, so there might be buyers there with limit orders. Also too close to the 60min EMA. The channel up was tight, so there may be a second leg up to the top of the bigger multiday TR. Wanted more information from the MKT.
Trade D:
Failed H2 41, 44
Good bear reversal bar, close near low
Might be trapped bulls looking for 2LU from TC 19-39
Possible new bear TL providing resistance (pink)
Thoughts & Review:
This is the sort of signal I wanted to see - some reason to believe that MKT would turn down and that there would be FT selling after it did. Great context, and the bulls had several chances to push MKT up for 2nd leg. But they couldn’t so it, so MKT likely to come down for several bars to a new lower, support level.
Bar 46 confirmed the presence of trapped bulls because it surged down and closed on it’s low.
Trade E:
2eb failed BO below 15min EMA
At support: broader bull TL (green)
At MM target based on measuring gap from 46 BO
Good bull reversal bar, COH
2LD from 40
Thoughts & Review:
This trade did not have the best setup, but it did have a great signal bar and decent context. I was concerned about the 3 strong bear bars down, but the bull TL and 15min MA held. I was still thinking that we might get a 2nd leg up from 19-39 bull TC. However, I was concerned that this move might be the first of 2LD before the start of the 2nd leg up.
Trade F:
2es failed BO above bear TL (pink)
2es failed BO above 60min EMA
MDT 52
L2 52 (because MKT up/down on 52 and up/down on 53)
HL with 40 & 45
Thoughts & Review:
I thought this might be the start of the 2nd leg down from 40H. I was expecting at least a L1=L2 MM based on 40-48, or either 45-48. MKT came up short on both later. The 2 good bulls bars earlier bothered me some, but we never really had a good break of the tighter bear TL from 45-48 (not shown) until now. So, a test down was likely. And there was a decent 2es signal.
Trade G:
2eb failed BO 15min EMA with 55
2eb failed BO broader bull channel with 55
DBBF 48 (big H2 from 19-40 leg)
TRI B 34, 48
HL 48
2LD from 40H
Bull ioi with bull bar, close near high
HL MTR
Thoughts & Review:
The bears had several good chances to push the market back down. The best they were able to accomplish was a TR. It seemed like the TR was getting tighter with less range. The bull ioi meant BOM, and I thought a BO up was more likely than down. The 15min EMA had been acting as support earlier. There was room to the bear TL and to the 40H. MKT may also BO above 40H and run for leg1=leg2 based on 19-40 leg (starting with 58L for 2LU). Also possbile BO and MM based on height of 40-48 TR.
Trade H:
Failed BO above 40SH
Bear reversal bar, close near low
At L1=L2 MM target
Top of TR
Thoughts & Review:
This was a new RTH HOD on a TR day with a bear RB closing near low. I thought this might be aggressive given the upward bias today. However, there was enough room to the EMA and bull TL below for a scalp down. This was technically also a 2es for failed BO above bear TL with 63, and a L2 63. But I thought those were less relevant since the MKT was likely in a broad bull channel and going higher ultimately.
Thank you, kind sir! I noticed that you have a journal as well, and I'll be sure to swing by. I did see that you mentioned a voice recorder for realtime note taking in your journal. Ironically, I just ordered a copy of Dragon Naturally Speaking for the same purpose. I was missing too much PA trying to write everything down, but I realized I need the actual notes during the day to look back at.
In reference to my markup and read, I still have trouble reading PA in realtime sometimes for various reasons. But the idea is that I can compare my ideal EOD markup with what I actually saw, in order to improve. I'm also still trying to figure out my personality and what/how I like to trade. I'll post more on that as it develops
I do an EOD recap for each market I trade, but I don't log my realtime reading. I need to start doing that more.
I did EOD recaps for everyday going back to 2008. (Took a long time), but the idea was to look and see the setups in different market conditions and to see as many as possible. Really helped me to see the setups form live.
NOTE: No trades today. MKT had good volume today, and things were moving more quickly than I expected, so I was unable to process fast enough to trade. Also, MKT was forcing me to risk more than my usual 2 points, and then failing to reach 2 point profit targets before pulling back. I still wanted to practice chart reading, so that I can become faster at it in realtime nonetheless.
Trade A:
Failed BO below bull TL
H2 53
TRI 36, 45
First break of bull TL, so expecting test of high
TR day so might test overnight H
L1=L2 MM target above based on height of 36-41 leg
Thoughts & Review:
I hesitated slightly and missed this one. The context was good, and the buying pressure was stronger than the selling pressure. Many bull bars closing near their highs with micro gaps.
Trade B:
2es for failed BO above overnight H
Failed BO above bull TCL
Strong bear RB
At the top of TR on TR day with room to EMA and bull TL
Thoughts & Review:
I thought this was a good setup. However, I would have been nervous when 68 created a DB with 66, since there was a possible broader bull channel working up. I’m not sure what I would have done here. Maybe exit BE on 71 or with 1 point profit on 72? There was a report listed for 10am, so I would have wanted to exit prior to that in any case.
Trade C:
TRI 69, 72
At bull TL and EMA = support with room to bull TCL
Bull ii with strong signal bar
Thoughts & Review:
I would have passed on this trade. MKT was at the top of TR and a report was due at 10am. There was also a lot of overlap and the EMA was flattening out. Given TR day, I would have looked for the TRI to become a final flag and shorted a reversal down, if we got one.
Trade D:
Failed BO above HOD
ET 66, 68, 77, 80 (green line)
Bear IB
Expecting at least a test down to the bear TCL and bottom of ET (new low, lower than 77 minimum)
Thoughts & Review:
I did not process this information in realtime due to the 10am report. But in hindsight, this was a nice setup with a good context. Even if I had seen the setup, I would have waited a while after the report to trade - just to let the computers finish up their speedy trades.
Trade E:
DTBF 85
Failed H2 83, 86
Expecting possible 2LD from 80-82 bear spike
Thoughts & Review:
I probably wouldn’t have taken this trade. I think the probability was in the bears favor, but I don’t know if it was high enough for a scalp. The bulls had a great chance on 83 to create a DB for another leg up, but they failed to do it. Without this failure, I definitely would not consider this trade at all. However, the setup for the bears was right at a possible broader bull TL. And there were 4 doji bars with a doji signal bar. It’s a hard call on this trade, I think, and MKT might just go sideways for a while.
Trade F:
Strong bear BO of bull TL
Big bear bar, closing near low
Good context for 2LD from 80-82 bear spike; in top ⅓ of TR
2 MM targets below
Thoughts & Review:
This trade was probably worth taking. Given the strong bear spike earlier and the bulls failure to create the DB, I thought the market was going lower. The bears showed strength on the BO, and this was a great entry bar for anyone who shorted the DTBF on the previous bar. The next support levels - 15 min EMA and bear TCL were far enough away for a scalp. Also plenty of room to LOD if MKT kept going down.
Trade G:
W 83, 90
2es with 91 failed BO below 15 min EMA
At MM targets and bear TCL
Thoughts & Review:
This trade was tempting but I would have waited. There was no break of the bear TL on this move down, and it was very close to the top of this signal bar. The EMA was also very close. There was also lots of overlap and choppiness on the way down, so possibility of TTR also was there. I also was sure if the MKT was going to shoot for the MM based on the height of the bear spike instead of just the L1=L2 MM (since the MKT grossly overshot this MM, I wondered if it was accurate).
Trade H:
2eb with 95 for W bottom
Slightly HL than 95
Big bull bar, COH
Expecting 2LU from W bottom, maybe to test 87H = top of W
Thoughts & Review:
I thought this was a decent trade since 2eb and after L1=L2 MM was reached. TR days often have legs ending in W, and this was near the RTH LOD where bulls came in before. I was a bit concerned by the overlap, and this was also the first break of the bear TL on the way down.
Trade I:
BP B from 99-101 BO
Possible start of 2LU from W bottom
15min EMA providing support over last few bars
HL with 99
Bull ii with bull RB signal bar
Expecting at least L1=L2 MM up and maybe test of 87H = top of W
Thoughts & Review:
I thought this would be good enough for a scalp. It’s possible that MKT was in bear trend, but I thought this would at least be a deep enough PB to scalp a long given the W bottom. The EMAs were flattening out, and there was some overlap. So the possibility of sideways was a concern and sign to use caution here. The ii signaled breakout mode, and the W bottom made a second leg up likely - eg. I expected the BO from the ii to be up instead of down.
Trade J:
H2 106
Failed L2 102, 108 - possibly trapped bears
At new bull TL and EMA
Room to L1=L2 MM target, bull TL, and 60min EMA above (might test 87H, too)
Thoughts & Review:
The signal bar on this trade was terrible, but the context was decent. The bears appeared to be losing strength. They had several bars closing on their lows that were bought by the bulls - e.g. 98, 104. I thought at worst MKT would go sideways, and I could exit BE if necessary.
