NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Realistic attainable " 95% " of the time on average Targets?


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one mdsvtr with 3 posts (2 thanks)
    2. looks_two Tasker_182 with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 gburg999 with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 1 posts (2 thanks)
    1. trending_up 1,751 views
    2. thumb_up 4 thanks given
    3. group 4 followers
    1. forum 7 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Realistic attainable " 95% " of the time on average Targets?

  #1 (permalink)
 mdsvtr 
Memphis,TN
 
Posts: 232 since Sep 2010

Again, these " expected " Points via Targets on these Index Futures, is from a few years ago, so they could be Way off. The target of 4 points on ES is roughly 1/3 of the ADR from the ES back when this article was written. So it assumed the ADR was 10 - 12 points. . Given todays current Markets, the ES's ADR is probably more in the 15 - 17 point range. The information I have, says that for an expected move ( from the point of Entry ) to an attainable target that is achieved at a rate of 95% of the time, that the ES will move 4 points ( not straight up like an arrow of course ) , but that it will reach to or near a move of 4 points, without a substantial Pullback or a Trend reversal during the course of that 4 point move. Does this sound realistic ? Now, I'm not sure what timeframe(s) or Indicators ( if any ) the author of the article stating this used . You would have to trade on a longer timeframe ( Swing type timeframe chart(s) vs a Scalping ( lower timeframe ) of course, as the moves on the LTF charts, can be quite erratic. Take a 5000 tick or even 6000 tick chart on the ES for example, the moves, when entered correctly and at double bottoms/tops , wedge patterns, etc... the moves from these setups and patterns, seem more often than not, to move in upwards of 3-6 points before they reverse or consolidate ( not accounting for the huge swings that can occur when big news comes out, like the Fed or non Farm ) . I will admit that, assuming that something can ocurr over and over again at a sucess rate of 95% in the markets is far fetched, but even if it ocurrs 70% of the time with a projected 4 point move using larger timeframe charts, I'll take it . Anyways, just wanted to get fellow members opinions on this, and also if these Targets being reached from Entry point seem likely to be reached before a likely Reversal/ strong Pullback ( in any given, 1 days worth of trading ).... Here are the projected Targets that I calculated, Basing these other Indexes Targets from the ES's 4 point ( based on an ADR of 10 - 12 points ) and that is " HIit " 95% of the time from the Article )....... NQ = 7 points TF = 4 points YM = 80 ticks GC = $7 CL = .60 cents Opinions and comments please Thanks much - Michael

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
Request for MACD with option to use different MAs for fa …
NinjaTrader
My NT8 Volume Profile Split by Asian/Euro/Open
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Retail Trading As An Industry
58 thanks
Battlestations: Show us your trading desks!
50 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
47 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
32 thanks
What percentage per day is possible? [Poll]
31 thanks

  #3 (permalink)
 
Tasker_182's Avatar
 Tasker_182 
Cedar Rapids, iowa
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: Ninjatrader - Continuum
Posts: 716 since Aug 2009
Thanks Given: 476
Thanks Received: 1,401



mdsvtr View Post
Again, these " expected " Points via Targets on these Index Futures, is from a few years ago, so they could be Way off. The target of 4 points on ES is roughly 1/3 of the ADR from the ES back when this article was written. So it assumed the ADR was 10 - 12 points. . Given todays current Markets, the ES's ADR is probably more in the 15 - 17 point range. The information I have, says that for an expected move ( from the point of Entry ) to an attainable target that is achieved at a rate of 95% of the time, that the ES will move 4 points ( not straight up like an arrow of course ) , but that it will reach to or near a move of 4 points, without a substantial Pullback or a Trend reversal during the course of that 4 point move. Does this sound realistic ? Now, I'm not sure what timeframe(s) or Indicators ( if any ) the author of the article stating this used . You would have to trade on a longer timeframe ( Swing type timeframe chart(s) vs a Scalping ( lower timeframe ) of course, as the moves on the LTF charts, can be quite erratic. Take a 5000 tick or even 6000 tick chart on the ES for example, the moves, when entered correctly and at double bottoms/tops , wedge patterns, etc... the moves from these setups and patterns, seem more often than not, to move in upwards of 3-6 points before they reverse or consolidate ( not accounting for the huge swings that can occur when big news comes out, like the Fed or non Farm ) . I will admit that, assuming that something can ocurr over and over again at a sucess rate of 95% in the markets is far fetched, but even if it ocurrs 70% of the time with a projected 4 point move using larger timeframe charts, I'll take it . Anyways, just wanted to get fellow members opinions on this, and also if these Targets being reached from Entry point seem likely to be reached before a likely Reversal/ strong Pullback ( in any given, 1 days worth of trading ).... Here are the projected Targets that I calculated, Basing these other Indexes Targets from the ES's 4 point ( based on an ADR of 10 - 12 points ) and that is " HIit " 95% of the time from the Article )....... NQ = 7 points TF = 4 points YM = 80 ticks GC = $7 CL = .60 cents Opinions and comments please Thanks much - Michael


I suggest you take the information you have developed and spend some time with charts and validate, verify or quantify your thoughts, before you apply them to a trade. I don't mean for this to sound harsh, you should be credited for developing an idea for your trading and I can appreciate getting 2nd opinions. You can get all kinds of opinions from others who may or may not know but in the end it is only your opinion that matters.
Best of luck to you.

Be yourself; everyone else is already taken. Oscar Wilde
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)
 fourtiwinks 
Singapore
 
Experience: Beginner
Posts: 206 since Jun 2011
Thanks Given: 526
Thanks Received: 201


mdsvtr View Post
Again, these " expected " Points via Targets on these Index Futures, is from a few years ago, so they could be Way off. The target of 4 points on ES is roughly 1/3 of the ADR from the ES back when this article was written. So it assumed the ADR was 10 - 12 points. . Given todays current Markets, the ES's ADR is probably more in the 15 - 17 point range. The information I have, says that for an expected move ( from the point of Entry ) to an attainable target that is achieved at a rate of 95% of the time, that the ES will move 4 points ( not straight up like an arrow of course ) , but that it will reach to or near a move of 4 points, without a substantial Pullback or a Trend reversal during the course of that 4 point move. Does this sound realistic ? Now, I'm not sure what timeframe(s) or Indicators ( if any ) the author of the article stating this used . You would have to trade on a longer timeframe ( Swing type timeframe chart(s) vs a Scalping ( lower timeframe ) of course, as the moves on the LTF charts, can be quite erratic. Take a 5000 tick or even 6000 tick chart on the ES for example, the moves, when entered correctly and at double bottoms/tops , wedge patterns, etc... the moves from these setups and patterns, seem more often than not, to move in upwards of 3-6 points before they reverse or consolidate ( not accounting for the huge swings that can occur when big news comes out, like the Fed or non Farm ) . I will admit that, assuming that something can ocurr over and over again at a sucess rate of 95% in the markets is far fetched, but even if it ocurrs 70% of the time with a projected 4 point move using larger timeframe charts, I'll take it . Anyways, just wanted to get fellow members opinions on this, and also if these Targets being reached from Entry point seem likely to be reached before a likely Reversal/ strong Pullback ( in any given, 1 days worth of trading ).... Here are the projected Targets that I calculated, Basing these other Indexes Targets from the ES's 4 point ( based on an ADR of 10 - 12 points ) and that is " HIit " 95% of the time from the Article )....... NQ = 7 points TF = 4 points YM = 80 ticks GC = $7 CL = .60 cents Opinions and comments please Thanks much - Michael

So hard to read your post..

Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)
 mdsvtr 
Memphis,TN
 
Posts: 232 since Sep 2010

Thank you Tasker_182 and I aplogize about that fourtiwinks . Here's what I was trying to Refrence.......... I read a trading article about 2 years ago, that stated that the ES will move 4 points ( up or down ) 95% of the time. Now, it did not factor in when and where you entered, nor did it specify what Timeframe chart(s) to trade off of, to hit a 4 point target at a 95% success rate. I have found out, due to many hours of watching the ES and backtesting , that a move ( of 4 points ) is reached, quite often, when price bounces off of double/triple bottoms andstrong support and vice versa for shorts, at double/triple tops and strong resistance . You have to trade higher timeframe charts though, as lowertimeframe charts will always have many pullbacks and consolidations ( even if the move is a strong move to the up or downside ). The Longer timeframe charts " Filter " out all that noise. Since I'm stating the numbers and percent that was written on the ES , some 2 years ago ( which back then the average Daily Range was some where between 10 - 12 points a day), I'm sure the AverageDailyRange of the ES is now Different ( I'd say it has an Average Daily Range of around 15 - 17 points now days ). Hope that helped clear some of it up.

Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,322 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,143
Thanks Received: 101,476

@mdsvtr,

Please break up your post with paragraphs so it is easier to read, if you want people to read it.

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
  #7 (permalink)
 gburg999 
Winston Salem, NC
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjTrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 2 since Nov 2013
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 1

I saw another post that seems like it touches this idea. I will dig for it and see if I can direct you there...

Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)
 mdsvtr 
Memphis,TN
 
Posts: 232 since Sep 2010

gburg999 , I really appreciate that, that would be great. Let me know if you find it please . Thanks

Reply With Quote





Last Updated on November 21, 2013


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts