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how come X stop with Y profit results in a loss for system A. Alternatively, Y stop with X profit for the same system also results in losses, any explanation to this?
ie:
10 ticks stoploss after entry with 20 ticks profit target for system A results in a 10k loss
inverse the stops and profits.. so 20 ticks stoploss and 10 ticks profit also results in a loss, 8k
has anyone ever noticed this?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Your stop of 10 ticks and even 20 ticks is perhaps too tight for the volatility of your instrument of choice
I understand from you that the win% remains the same in both scenarios... and which must be extremely low to generate a loss while your average win (20 ticks) is twice your average loss (10 ticks).
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
It is my pleasure to welcome Ernie Chan for a special webinar as part of our 4-year anniversary ( on nexusfi.com (formerly BMT). The webinar will be on Thursday, June 20th @ 4:30 PM Eastern US.
Topics include:
- Why the Forex market is particularly …
I call this phenomena "I see you see".
For example if you aim in ES for 4 ticks target with 4 ticks stop and your strategy for entry is coin toss.
You see it as a 50-50 event, but the market sees it as 33-66.
And it is before slippage and commitions.
I explained it about 4 years ago.
correct, they are random, however, those random entries are the same for the inverse profit/stop settings. so you would expect good and bad results for atleast one set of profit/stop setting
i actually did notice that NT would give you the more "favorable fill to the market, ie against you" when you send market orders. so the above 33-66 would be true in that case.
however, i adjustment my entries to be limit orders.. in that case.. it should be a coin toss. no?
Your not comparing apples to apples. As soon you change the stop or target the entry for the next trade will change. This is because ninja skips over trades because you are already in a position. When you change the stop from 10 to 20 a trade previously skipped will now become valid and may result in a loss thus you end up with nearly identical results. Try comparing side by side the entries from the strategy with 10 tick stop vs the 20 tick stop. You are sure find trades on one that does not appear on the other.
I did a lot of analysis on my own strategy/bot as well. It started somewhere around here:
I have a new bot that I have been working for my personal bot portfolio. The results are good, almost too good. I want to walk through my process of optimization and general setup to make sure I am not missing something. …
There is probably some analysis before this post which might be worth while.
