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I'm following CL charts intraday since a couple of weeks. Can someone with some years experience trading CL tell me how much CL is moving intraday with a black swan event? What kind of moves does CL make on a very bad day? I think I remember a flash crash in oil a couple of years ago?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
There was a feedback loop in March Crude Oil futures on February 13 2012. The markets were halted from about 2:00 PM to 3:15 PM, before trading resumed. This event is know as the NYMEX Black Swan.
During this period crude moved approximately half a point higher.
However, your risk is much higher, if you have a short position in the old front month 1 or 2 days prior to the expiry.
The most frightening event happened on September 22, when crude oil price jumped by $ 25 per barril during a single day. Most of the explanations given for this rise were dead wrong. It was the last day of trading for the Octobar contract, and the November contract only rose by $ 6 per barril.
The main reason for the short squeeze was the strange place of delivery for the physical oil. Delivery takes place in Cushing, Oklahoma, and it is not easy to get physical oil there, if you hold a short position. Don't trade the old contract during the last 2 days prior to expiry!
