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-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
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Inspired by Big Mike , my new year resolution was to cut back on my indicator list
so i have new trading plan for 2010 , i will be trading only 2 setups (describe below) and will update trades on a daily basis
Trading with one chart only
indicator on the chart:
* Candle Sticks
* EMA 20
* Bollinger band 2 std deviation
* Volume pattern setting of 20 (default)
* Bar timer
Chart time frame : 24H
Drawing : Trend lines
Rules:
Setup1 / Volume pattern
1. always plot in the trend line from the last major pivot
2. Long trigger , Volume pattern at the near / below low of the Bollinger band with trend line break above the close of the last candle or trend line break
3. Short trigger , Volume pattern at the near / below high of the Bollinger band with trend line break below the close of the last candle or trend line break
Exception :
If 20 EMA is flat - avoid trading - this is my way to avoid chop.
1. Double bottom next to major support / swing pivot low buy above the last candle high
2. Double top - next to major Resistance / Swing pivot high sell below the last candle low
Initial stop : 20 Ticks per Contract
First target : 10 Ticks
Second Target : 20Ticks
Max loss per day = 60Ticks
Max Win Per day = 100 Ticks
Trade 1:
price below the BB and volume pattern shows buying activity trend line break 81.44 , 1st target / 2nd target was filled
Trade duration = 3 bars
Trade 2:
Price near BB volume pattern show buying activity and 2B (very high probability trade) enter on a trend line break 81.42 1st target / 2nd target was filled
Trade duration = 4 bars
11:00 EMA flat - No Trade
12:00 - 12:05 - No Trade , price are not near BB
Trade 3:
price below the BB and volume pattern shows buying activity trend line break 81.21 , 1st target / 2nd target was filled
Trade duration = 3 bars
TIMES UP!!
didn't reach my daily goal , but cant complaint
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Very nice and very straight forward. One comment. I believe that you could take more out of the trade especially if you are trading with the trend on a higher timeframe. I know you want just one chart, but if you hit support for example and take a long especially after you see volume come in on the buy side, why not try and get more out of the trade? CL moves a lot more than 20 tics. I'm not expert by any means, just wondering.
but i found out that the more time i am in a trade the more nervous i am (My limit is 20 Min)
this is more a personality issue , then a trading issue .
i found out also that when i focus on one chart i am a better trader
I like the method you've chosen, but you probably knew that already. I look forward to your future posts and learning what you do with it and how you grow it and improve upon it.
Two suggestions. At the end of each day when you journal the trades, try also journaling about how you felt both before and after each trade (ie: "this one is about to blast off!", or "I exited this one too soon"). Second, try grading yourself on a daily basis. Grading should not be based on profitability, but instead based on how well you executed on what you told yourself you would do in the morning before you started trading. It is good to focus on just two or three things per day to grade yourself on later.
Today was a little difficult trading , i had only 2 valid signals and i ignore one of the signals because of the crude oil inventory news.
i was so upset that i didnt get in the trade but the trade was so fast and i miss that.
so the only trade i took today was at the lower BB band. for only total of 30Ticks
i was upset that i didnt trail my stop and got only 30Ticks from a move of over 100 ticks moves .
trade details .
Trade 1:
price below the BB and volume pattern shows buying activity trend line break 81.24 , 1st target / 2nd target was filled
Trade duration = 3 bars
during the trade i felt that i was making a huge mistake because the news is out and i dont really know what really happen with oil ,and i felt like the market want to go lower and i took 17 Ticks heat , i was thinking maybe to move my stop below the low of the day , but i didnt! i told my self if they want to get my money they have to come and get it :-) , i also noticed the volume to the down side was low comparing to the buy volume.
once the position was on the plus side , i noticed that the market didnt create a new low so i felt more comfortable with my trade and then i was out with my $300
i was waiting for another setup but didnt see one so i gave up and was done trading.
true , but the problem is you setting next the computer and waiting and waiting .....
and nothing happen , i almost just bought because its going up and up ...
and i am thinking maybe i need to extra information to stay in a trade and so far i have no idea how , maybe someone here can help me to figure this one out.
I think what Mike would say, and he can correct me if I'm wrong, is grade yourself based on whether or not you followed your rules. If your rules say to trail your trade and you don't then you get a bad grade. You can be harsh and give yourself an F like I would do for myself, or you can say D. If your rules don't say to trail and you don't then you have did what your are supposed to do. Maybe you need a rule in terms of how much profit you allow to slip away. I can relate.
You also made a comment about just jumping in. In my experience that is a bad idea. Its tough to watch it move without you, but if you jump in its always in the wrong spot.
I know you want to use one chart and I don't know if you use other timeframes or not, but based on what I see in CL it is in an uptrend. It broke the prior swing high of about $82 and the Fib extension of the prior down swing is about $85.50. I don't know if you like fibs but you can use them on any time frame to determine a target. If price is making HH and HL the HH will usually be 1.27 - 1.618 of the prior swing. The same is true for a down trend. So on your trade today you could in theory run and fib ext from that big down move and use the 1.27 as the target. You can trail or not. I've attached a chart as an example. Basically what I'm getting at is that since you are trading in the direction of the larger trend and the 1.27 extension on the daily is close you have things in your favor or probabilities of sticking with the trade. I hope this is of use.
Today was a very good for me , i had 4 valid setups which works great
i also took David advice on Fibonacci target which was very helpful (thanks David)
here is the trade setups.
1st trade:
entry above trendline break line break with volume pattern at the bottom of the BB
first and second target filled (see pic 5th)
this trade took more then usual (5 bars) but after i trail my stop to B/E i felt good with the trade.
Grade A
2end trade:
entry below trendline break line break with volume pattern at the top of the BB
first filled and second stop at B/E (see pic 6th.6th1)
Grade C - i was too fast to move my stop to B/E
3rd trade:
2B setup at the low of the BB buy above the last candle high
first and second target filled (see pic 7th)
Grade A
4rd trade:
2T setup at the high of the BB short below the last candle low which was also a trend line break (high probability setup) (see pic 8th)
Grade B this is the first attempt to trail my stop with Fib extenstion lines
