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This is my first post on the forum :-) I am a little nervous about it.
First of all would like to thank Big Mike for a place for me to learn so much from some experienced traders.
I have been studying the markets for over 3 years now, with the last one year being very intensive.
One thing that i have come to realize is that i need to either be a trend trader or a counter trend trader. I chose trend trading and was not really very comfortable until i took out my counter trend momentum indicators from my charts. With the momentum indicators i would always be looking for an end in the trend. Now i just take all bounces off of my moving average of choice. It was hard at first, but eventually i think i am less anxious, and focus more on the price action. Some of the best trend moves seem to occur once all the counter trend people have to cover in a hurry, i think.
I too have not had any success using momentum. I have also looked a volume indicators and it seems to me that for every time they are correct on calling a reversal they were wrong 5 times. There is quite a long thread on volume and several very ingenious indicators based on volume, but again I fins them wrong more often than right. I am wondering if we are getting all of the data to work with or if there is some kind of filtering going on that masks the true volume?
Don't be nervous to post here. This is an open forum for all of us to learn. I believe you are spot on in developing as a trader. You've got to find what you are comfortable with and stick with it. I'll use myself as an example; I watched and worked at trading CL for a long time. I still watch it but I don't trade it anymore and don't even consider taking a trade on it. One day I probably will revisit CL as a trading instrument but ultimately I found that it was too volatile and required too large of stops for my comfort. All that time that I was trying to trade CL it wasn't a problem with my strategy but rather a problem with me. I was trying to force the proverbial square peg into a round hole.
I also use a price retracement to a MA (wave indicator) and then a price move in the direction of the trend as my entry. For my method and style of trading, the momentum indicators and volume indicators have been ineffective.
I have nice trend fallowing indicator, I attach the screens shots. As you can see it gives very nice reversal point and trend color. It works actually on any market but I mainly use it to trade Forex on charts like 30min, 1h, 4h. Of course it works much more better on trend market than on choppy. On choppy I would not trade it or trade with tight stops and limits.
