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Your probability is based on past performance and the testing you have done.
It MUST be quantified by seeing the risk and the reward behind this pattern, occurrence, etc
(risk X percentage) + (anticipated reward X percentage) = should be a positive outcome
If you don't know how many points you seek to take, then you are in the business of hope.
more experienced trader (real time trading) sometimes seek to enter the market on a certain occurrence (pattern, divergence, indicators) and exit when that occurrence stopped, but this is for much more experienced traders.
For beginner I suggest to know the risk and reward ahead of the trade.
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
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In the process of writing this post, I've discovered a large part of the problem. The definition of randomness you will find on dictionary.com, and elsewhere, is incorrect.
It states
"of or characterizing a process of selection in which …
I am closing this thread to prevent a split topic and to make things easier and more organized. Repost your question there.
