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"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Whether they report it or not does not really matter. What matters is when it happens as a trader are you protected. Some of the expectation of this is already built into the price of oil. But the moment it happens if it does oil is going to push up fast and furious. Could be a stop jumping move which is what worries me.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
It's hard to say exactly how much these expectations are already built in. The pundits always say this, but when/if a strike does occur, I guarantee you the price will skyrocket. What's more interesting is the spread between CL and BRN then... will BRN rise even higher as a result? Seems likely, in my opinion.
I agree when it happens the reaction will be emotional. Price will skyrocket and take all the stops with it. I also tend to agree that BRN will push up faster / higher in such a case.
Protect - too little too late. The market is already broken. For example, yesterday - if you had watched the DOM in the afternoon you would have seen wild swings in CL for about 30mins so fast and so controlled it made my head spin (like someone had electrocuted a heroin addicted rat), then price rocketed up 200points (after already being up 200points for the day). In the overnight price is already down 200points.....These swings have been seen before (but in the face of major world news...now these swings are occurring on a more frequent basis).
The change of pace is much faster than it was (and that's something on CL, which is already a pretty violent market).
Blame program trading or Gman....or blame the politics, regulators or CME that won't ensure that a market doesn't do that (and its not by putting limits on). There is something weird going on, and it stinks. I would be the last one to cry foul but more I see, the more sceptical i get at things that just plain don't make sense....
Eventually, this will be be too much of a good thing...and the next flash crash (matter of when) will bring forth a deluge of regulation...these programs will self destruct...just like those infallible Noble laureates at LTCM......
HFT guys are targeting Nymex markets since 2011 more than before. I know RSJ increased their exposure in Nymex by tenfold.
They started with NYSE Euronext and destroyed the market. Then went on Eurex - the same result. They are in bed with CME now - well let us see what will happen...
Catch 22 right now. My strategies require alot of volatility. CL provides perfect venue for that but has been kind of calm the last few months especially intraday (almost to orderly for my tastes). However, the last few weeks have been much better because of the potential threats. These big swings are good for my account.
So while dangerous time to be in market also a time you must be in the market. Ahhh the life of a trader.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
