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Hey All, Happy to be a a part of this group and am appreciating the info I am receiving. My question to the seasoned vets is this:
I have been practicing trading for about a year...simply on paper......... I have recently made the decision to set up an account and actually make some real money. I have always just watched the ups and downs of the market (oil), considered relevent news if applicable, and made decisions to go long or short.....if i start losing i either go long or short agn in the same direction.......of course i have taken some losses doing this, but I have definitely had more winners. with all the indicators, charts, etc out there that people use and the fact that most ppl lose at this, am i naive to think that i can be successful without going that route? My buddy is assuring me that I have to educate myself more......any thoughts?
My belief is that most momentum indicators are all measuring the same thing , so one is as good as the other , and all momentum indicators work in hindsight, so can you trade without them , I believe so .
Momentum can be measured just by using a trend line and it should give you a fair idea if momemtum is still going or its starting to slow, so I'm not sure for me if there all there cracked up to be ( attached chart).
But having said that , chart reading takes a lot longer to understand than a system trading , its a far longer apprenticeship but has better rewards ( my thoughts) , the one thing I do know as most people will trade a system and believe that discretionary trading is impossible, it will all come down to how much work you want to put in to get to your goal ?
News moves markets (most of the time).
There are lots of technical setups that many people watch everyday, especially at confluence areas
that can trigger a tipping point between supply and demand.
Successful technical traders use charts as tools to put the odds in their favor.
Gut feelings work until they don't work.
Trading is more than that. It's an art but it's also a science.
Trading is a business. Treat it as such.
BTW - discretionary traders trade a system as well. They may not enter every setup
but they still use a 'system' that puts the odds in their favor to make money
in the long run.
Going without indicators seems like a good choice.
However, without charts, I think there's still much for you to learn here.
You still need to learn about retracements etc.
Price just doesnt just go up and down. There are exact areas where the price will stop going down then continue going up vice versa.
Going without indicators is a good choice, however, you still need to educate yourself on price action chart patterns/formation and Fibonacci retracements/ projections IMO.
I have seen someone trade similar to the method you mention, although a little more extreme.
It was a vendor who was charging a measly $99 for his wares and he WAS a legit trader.
He traded stocks and added to his position as it moved his way. He'd scale back out & eventualy reverse and trade the other way if it moved against him.
The stocks he traded were news stocks that hadn't moved much pre-market. He's watch only the L1 screens for about 5 stocks at a time. No charts & no indicators. Just an eye on the price.
I paid the $99 out of sheer curiosity. He'd show his live trading, you would NOT have been able to shadow trade him as this was a very fast & furious way to trade.
Two things became apparent. First is you would need a lot of capital to trade this way - in his case he'd be in to the tune of $3-400k to bring in $1k in profit but he's also be at massive risk on the slightest adverse move because of the scaling in. He'd have built a position of 4 or 5,000 shares yet only be $300 in profit at the point he'd built the position.
Secondly, retail comissions would kill you. It's not that his method didn't work, it just wouldn't work outsided of a genuine prop shop where you had access to a lot of capital and extremely low commissions.
In your case, I know it's a different method and you have not mentioned scaling. Still, the constant reversals could really give you a comission headache.
Are you crazy ?.....I'm sending some guys that will fit you in a nice jacket and take good care of you.
Just kidding, I agree with what has been posted already, without some sort of chart you might as well as flip a coin I would think...how do you know when to enter or get out, how do you know if where you got out was only a small retracement, and so on...
I didn't use charts. I would just listen to the chatter and see where the general indexes were and decide if it was up or down. I was wrong a lot. But, when I was right it was worth it.
Then I started learning about technical trading and the real learning (or unlearning) took place. haha...
I think it was more fundamental trading in the sense of really just being open to what the market is telling me in a general sense and from numbers and nothing more or % of up/down etc..
I did fundamental trading for about 10 years just playing around, then 1 year intra-day and it was very different than today for sure. I think I probably would have lost my shirt though with all this POMO, QE crap.
