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I am using Market Profile to trade the ES. However, I was looking at other markets to see how well market profile applies to them. I am having difficulty measuring things like the initial balance, and opening swing for other markets like gold, oil, and currencies. I am not sure when their first hour of trading is since they are different from the equities. Any suggestions? Do I use the pit hours for gold and oil for the first hour? How about currencies since they are 24 hours. Thanks.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
This, of course, is not a direct answer to your question, but one thing to consider is that Peter Steidlmayer, the creator of Market Profile, no longer advocates the use of Market Profile for market analysis. While many current Market Profile practitioners may argue the point, it is at minimum, highly interesting that the man credited with its development no longer considers it viable; take that for what its worth... Steidlmayer is now suggesting the use of a new paradigm called 'Volume Strips'. You can find more information here, if interested: Steidlmayer Volume Strips: J. Peter Steidlmayer
I trade CL futures full time. To trade commodities Mark Fisher ACD method is more suitable. His book "The logical Trader" is a GOLD MINE for traders who trade volatile instruments like CL, GC etc. and it does not hurt that Paul Tudor Jones calls MF best pit trader ever.
One of the banners of Market Profile is it's timeless application across all markets as a means to display price movement over time. How does that square with it no longer being viable I wonder? I look forward to listening to the video.
According to Steidlmayer, it's the fact that it's based on a price/time database that renders it obsolete in today's markets. We are supposedly back to a supply/price database....
To be fair, the method has always been disputed and one might argue the validity of applying a normal distribution to asset prices...
IMHO market Profile is best suited for trading ES. Do not have experience with Forex market. I trade crude Oil full time and some time GC. I use Mark Fisher ACD method for trading. His book "The logical trading" is excellent for trading VOLATILE instruments like CL and GC. Paul Tudor Jones calls MF best pit trader ever.
Someone with market profile knowledge and then adding ACD layer on top of it- it's a GOLD mine.
Mark Fisher recommends following trading hours for cl.
8.30 am till 2.30 pm Eastern time ( pit session opens and close at 9 to 2.30 pm)
You will notice my price bars are all blackened out. Price has no meaning. With ACD one trades levels. I used to get over excited by looking Green bars, Red bars, doji etc.. . So, i just made my price bars simplest as much possible. I I do use a 15 miute chart to pick up some patterns if i can, otherwise at least for CL- only 2 items are important for ACD traders. reference points and Volume. My volume bars are also all blackened out except those bars which show force of buyers or sellers. I do not want to look at volume bars all day long which has no impact.
I can appreciate that Market Profile is not for everyone. Heck, I questioned it myself for a number of years. In part as a result of my own ignorance and also in part because I never saw anyone really trade it successfully. At least not consistently successful to the extent that I wanted to put my money on the line to trade it.
There's probably no other methodology that is as filled with scammers as Market Profile. I mean there's legions of rooms that profess it's use with vague and low convictional double talk. Then when the trade works out pat themselves on the back for identifying the trade. For several minutes they talk you out of it by telling you everything that's wrong with it and scaring the hell out of you and then after the fact tell you everything that was right with it. That was my experience with Market Profile.
Most leave you wondering if they make their money off of their trading room and by charging multi thousands of dollars to teach the theory but who are unsuccessful in actually applying what they teach ie. they are unsuccessful at trading Market Profile. Making money by teaching theory and losing money as traders trying to apply it. Who wouldn't question it? I did.
I do however think there are few, very very few, legitimate traders of Market Profile- I don't care how many winning days straight they say they have.
People assume that because Steidlmayer was the developer of MP that he was successful trading it. I'm not so sure that's true. I have to wonder what his motive is. He sold the rights to the cbot. Do you think he regrets that now that it's become popular? Do you think he needs a new angle to develop to capitalize on by saying the market has changed?
Those few, who are successful at trading MP, have shown no signs of needing to change. Naturally the question will rise as to who those few are. That will need to be determined by each members own due diligence. Suffice it to say, they are out there. And they are not the ones who are doing the heavy selling and making the fantastic claims.
