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Please help me evaluate my system results


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Please help me evaluate my system results

  #1 (permalink)
 
sharp2be's Avatar
 sharp2be 
Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: Amp
Trading: ES
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Hello everyone, I'm fairly new to system development and although I've read some excellent posts on this board regarding system evaluation I don't feel I can "really" tell what is a tradeable or not-tradeable system. I have backtested a simple system in NT and was wondering if I could get your opinion on how good the system looks to you before I start testing it on a large amount of intraday data.

Here is some additional information on my system:

- Trades the eMini ES
- I backtested using 1 contract
- Trend Trading system, based on price action only, no indicators
- Intraday trades only, no overnight holding

So far I've tested it over the last 3 months but have over 5 years of intraday available (thanks to this board and the VIP section -- strong recommend it, great content there).

I'm pasting some screenshot with some of the key system results. Your comments are appreciated and thanks in advance for your time.

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  #2 (permalink)
 
sharp2be's Avatar
 sharp2be 
Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: Amp
Trading: ES
Posts: 57 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 69

And here's the same system backtested with data from 01/01/2009 to 11/16/2009. Although it had a large single loss I'm not surprised by it.. happy to see the Profit/Factor and Avg Win/Loss in line with previous results.

Tomorrow will post live simulator trading results.

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  #3 (permalink)
Jugador
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Looks like a winner, bro. Is that automated or manual entry/exits?

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  #4 (permalink)
 
sam028's Avatar
 sam028 
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It looks good, but the live simulator trading results will show you the truth .
But the Sharpe ratio, on your the longest backtest, is not so great; so wait & see how it works in live, after few weeks.

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  #5 (permalink)
 
sharp2be's Avatar
 sharp2be 
Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: Amp
Trading: ES
Posts: 57 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 69


Jugador View Post
Looks like a winner, bro. Is that automated or manual entry/exits?

Jugador, automated system, no manual intervention. Thanks for your review.

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  #6 (permalink)
 
sharp2be's Avatar
 sharp2be 
Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT, TS
Broker: Amp
Trading: ES
Posts: 57 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 69


sam028 View Post
It looks good, but the live simulator trading results will show you the truth .
But the Sharpe ratio, on your the longest backtest, is not so great; so wait & see how it works in live, after few weeks.

Sam, yes, agreed on the Sharpe, will start trading it on simulator tomorrow -- had connectivity problems. Will post the results on a daily basis.

Thanks for your review.

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  #7 (permalink)
Jugador
USA
 
Posts: 162 since Jul 2009
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sharp2be View Post
Jugador, automated system, no manual intervention.

Cool...

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Last Updated on November 17, 2009


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