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VantagePoint - Predicting the Market??


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VantagePoint - Predicting the Market??

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  #1 (permalink)
 gomad 
Tirgu Mures, Romania
 
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Hello,

I am interested to know if there are members who are using or used VantagePoint software in their trading. It is supposed to predict the market with an accuracy of about 75-80%.

It is quite expensive - about $3,000 and before looking more into it I would love to hear more from traders who are using it.

Here is their webpage VantagePoint : Intermarket Analysis Trading Software for Futures, Forex and Stocks

Thank you
GoMad

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 Fat Tails 
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It is an oldtimer of intermarket analysis. Expensive. Most people hate it, some are convinced that they have found the holy grail.

You can scan the following reviews to get an impression.

Trader Tech | Vantage Point Software | TraderTech.com reviews and ratings by Forex Peace Army

Product Review: VantagePoint Software @ Forex Factory

Trading Reviews - Software - Market Technologies | Trade2Win


You might also first read a book by Louis Mendelsohn, the creator of Vantage Point, to get a personal impression.

Amazon.com: Trend Forecasting with Intermarket Analysis: Predicting Global Markets with Technical Analysis (Trade Secrets (Marketplace Books)) (9781592803323): Mendelsohn, Louis B.: Books

Amazon.com: Forex Trading Using Intermarket Analysis (9781592802951): Louis B. Mendelsohn: Books

I would not use it, as I do not believe in holy grails. But I do not know the software, so you should rather listen to others.

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 gomad 
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Fat Tails,

Thank you so much for your recommendations. I really appreciate that you took the time to give me all the links. This is very helpful.

GoMad

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 zwentz 
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I haven't used VantagePoint, but my father did, then it was $5,000, and it's basically a trend follower. But the trend is really, really long. So you better hope you have some capital to spare after shelling out $3k for this, because you're going to need to be able to take a lot of drawdown and stick with a trade for a long time.

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 lolu 
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zwentz View Post
I haven't used VantagePoint, but my father did, then it was $5,000, and it's basically a trend follower. But the trend is really, really long. So you better hope you have some capital to spare after shelling out $3k for this, because you're going to need to be able to take a lot of drawdown and stick with a trade for a long time.

Swing trading; Right ?

Lolu

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 zwentz 
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lolu View Post
Swing trading; Right ?

Lolu

Yes. But very long swings haha.

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  #8 (permalink)
bfitch
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In the case of VantagePoint, the claim (which is no doubt correct but meaningless and deceiving) is that the "predicted neural index" can predict with an average accuracy of 78.2% whether the 3-day SMA of typical price (composite of the high, low, and close) two trading days in the future will be higher or lower than the current 3-day SMA of typical price. They use paid consultants to back this up and to imply that it's a fabulous feat. It's not.

The current 3-day SMA of typical price comprises nine data points (three days' worth of high, low, and close), and eight of those data points are in the past. So there's information right now that, using no neural networks or indicators of any kind, is sufficient to predict whether the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher or lower than the current value. That information is the current close--where it is in relation to the current 3-day SMA of typical price plus where it is in relation to today's typical price (which will become one-third of the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future).

I wrote a program that predicts the future 3-day SMA of typical price by assuming that the next two days will each have a typical price equal to today's close (which, on average, is true over any large sample). This produced an average accuracy of (drum roll please) 78.27% when applied to ten years' of data for seven random high-volume stocks and seven random futures markets. This result is precisely as useful as being able to predict whether the close two days from now will be higher or lower than today's close with an accuracy of 50%.

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 ThatManFromTexas 
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bfitch View Post
In the case of VantagePoint, the claim (which is no doubt correct but meaningless and deceiving) is that the "predicted neural index" can predict with an average accuracy of 78.2% whether the 3-day SMA of typical price (composite of the high, low, and close) two trading days in the future will be higher or lower than the current 3-day SMA of typical price. They use paid consultants to back this up and to imply that it's a fabulous feat. It's not.

The current 3-day SMA of typical price comprises nine data points (three days' worth of high, low, and close), and eight of those data points are in the past. So there's information right now that, using no neural networks or indicators of any kind, is sufficient to predict whether the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher or lower than the current value. That information is the current close--where it is in relation to the current 3-day SMA of typical price plus where it is in relation to today's typical price (which will become one-third of the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future).

I wrote a program that predicts the future 3-day SMA of typical price by assuming that the next two days will each have a typical price equal to today's close (which, on average, is true over any large sample). This produced an average accuracy of (drum roll please) 78.27% when applied to ten years' of data for seven random high-volume stocks and seven random futures markets. This result is precisely as useful as being able to predict whether the close two days from now will be higher or lower than today's close with an accuracy of 50%.

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  #10 (permalink)
 gomad 
Tirgu Mures, Romania
 
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bfitch View Post
In the case of VantagePoint, the claim (which is no doubt correct but meaningless and deceiving) is that the "predicted neural index" can predict with an average accuracy of 78.2% whether the 3-day SMA of typical price (composite of the high, low, and close) two trading days in the future will be higher or lower than the current 3-day SMA of typical price. They use paid consultants to back this up and to imply that it's a fabulous feat. It's not.

The current 3-day SMA of typical price comprises nine data points (three days' worth of high, low, and close), and eight of those data points are in the past. So there's information right now that, using no neural networks or indicators of any kind, is sufficient to predict whether the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher or lower than the current value. That information is the current close--where it is in relation to the current 3-day SMA of typical price plus where it is in relation to today's typical price (which will become one-third of the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future).

I wrote a program that predicts the future 3-day SMA of typical price by assuming that the next two days will each have a typical price equal to today's close (which, on average, is true over any large sample). This produced an average accuracy of (drum roll please) 78.27% when applied to ten years' of data for seven random high-volume stocks and seven random futures markets. This result is precisely as useful as being able to predict whether the close two days from now will be higher or lower than today's close with an accuracy of 50%.

Hi bfitch,

Thank you very much for your explanations. It is good to understand more about what the program actually does.

Is the program you wrote available?

gomad

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