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VantagePoint - Predicting the Market??


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VantagePoint - Predicting the Market??

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  #1 (permalink)
 gomad 
Tirgu Mures, Romania
 
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Hello,

I am interested to know if there are members who are using or used VantagePoint software in their trading. It is supposed to predict the market with an accuracy of about 75-80%.

It is quite expensive - about $3,000 and before looking more into it I would love to hear more from traders who are using it.

Here is their webpage VantagePoint : Intermarket Analysis Trading Software for Futures, Forex and Stocks

Thank you
GoMad

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  #3 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
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It is an oldtimer of intermarket analysis. Expensive. Most people hate it, some are convinced that they have found the holy grail.

You can scan the following reviews to get an impression.

Trader Tech | Vantage Point Software | TraderTech.com reviews and ratings by Forex Peace Army

Product Review: VantagePoint Software @ Forex Factory

Trading Reviews - Software - Market Technologies | Trade2Win


You might also first read a book by Louis Mendelsohn, the creator of Vantage Point, to get a personal impression.

Amazon.com: Trend Forecasting with Intermarket Analysis: Predicting Global Markets with Technical Analysis (Trade Secrets (Marketplace Books)) (9781592803323): Mendelsohn, Louis B.: Books

Amazon.com: Forex Trading Using Intermarket Analysis (9781592802951): Louis B. Mendelsohn: Books

I would not use it, as I do not believe in holy grails. But I do not know the software, so you should rather listen to others.

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 gomad 
Tirgu Mures, Romania
 
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Fat Tails,

Thank you so much for your recommendations. I really appreciate that you took the time to give me all the links. This is very helpful.

GoMad

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 zwentz 
Austin, TX
 
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I haven't used VantagePoint, but my father did, then it was $5,000, and it's basically a trend follower. But the trend is really, really long. So you better hope you have some capital to spare after shelling out $3k for this, because you're going to need to be able to take a lot of drawdown and stick with a trade for a long time.

If you have any questions about NinjaTerminal please send me a Private Message.
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 lolu 
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zwentz View Post
I haven't used VantagePoint, but my father did, then it was $5,000, and it's basically a trend follower. But the trend is really, really long. So you better hope you have some capital to spare after shelling out $3k for this, because you're going to need to be able to take a lot of drawdown and stick with a trade for a long time.

Swing trading; Right ?

Lolu

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 zwentz 
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lolu View Post
Swing trading; Right ?

Lolu

Yes. But very long swings haha.

If you have any questions about NinjaTerminal please send me a Private Message.
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  #8 (permalink)
bfitch
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In the case of VantagePoint, the claim (which is no doubt correct but meaningless and deceiving) is that the "predicted neural index" can predict with an average accuracy of 78.2% whether the 3-day SMA of typical price (composite of the high, low, and close) two trading days in the future will be higher or lower than the current 3-day SMA of typical price. They use paid consultants to back this up and to imply that it's a fabulous feat. It's not.

The current 3-day SMA of typical price comprises nine data points (three days' worth of high, low, and close), and eight of those data points are in the past. So there's information right now that, using no neural networks or indicators of any kind, is sufficient to predict whether the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher or lower than the current value. That information is the current close--where it is in relation to the current 3-day SMA of typical price plus where it is in relation to today's typical price (which will become one-third of the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future).

I wrote a program that predicts the future 3-day SMA of typical price by assuming that the next two days will each have a typical price equal to today's close (which, on average, is true over any large sample). This produced an average accuracy of (drum roll please) 78.27% when applied to ten years' of data for seven random high-volume stocks and seven random futures markets. This result is precisely as useful as being able to predict whether the close two days from now will be higher or lower than today's close with an accuracy of 50%.

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 ThatManFromTexas 
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bfitch View Post
In the case of VantagePoint, the claim (which is no doubt correct but meaningless and deceiving) is that the "predicted neural index" can predict with an average accuracy of 78.2% whether the 3-day SMA of typical price (composite of the high, low, and close) two trading days in the future will be higher or lower than the current 3-day SMA of typical price. They use paid consultants to back this up and to imply that it's a fabulous feat. It's not.

The current 3-day SMA of typical price comprises nine data points (three days' worth of high, low, and close), and eight of those data points are in the past. So there's information right now that, using no neural networks or indicators of any kind, is sufficient to predict whether the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher or lower than the current value. That information is the current close--where it is in relation to the current 3-day SMA of typical price plus where it is in relation to today's typical price (which will become one-third of the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future).

I wrote a program that predicts the future 3-day SMA of typical price by assuming that the next two days will each have a typical price equal to today's close (which, on average, is true over any large sample). This produced an average accuracy of (drum roll please) 78.27% when applied to ten years' of data for seven random high-volume stocks and seven random futures markets. This result is precisely as useful as being able to predict whether the close two days from now will be higher or lower than today's close with an accuracy of 50%.

How much to subscribe to your room ....

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #10 (permalink)
 gomad 
Tirgu Mures, Romania
 
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bfitch View Post
In the case of VantagePoint, the claim (which is no doubt correct but meaningless and deceiving) is that the "predicted neural index" can predict with an average accuracy of 78.2% whether the 3-day SMA of typical price (composite of the high, low, and close) two trading days in the future will be higher or lower than the current 3-day SMA of typical price. They use paid consultants to back this up and to imply that it's a fabulous feat. It's not.

The current 3-day SMA of typical price comprises nine data points (three days' worth of high, low, and close), and eight of those data points are in the past. So there's information right now that, using no neural networks or indicators of any kind, is sufficient to predict whether the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher or lower than the current value. That information is the current close--where it is in relation to the current 3-day SMA of typical price plus where it is in relation to today's typical price (which will become one-third of the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future).

I wrote a program that predicts the future 3-day SMA of typical price by assuming that the next two days will each have a typical price equal to today's close (which, on average, is true over any large sample). This produced an average accuracy of (drum roll please) 78.27% when applied to ten years' of data for seven random high-volume stocks and seven random futures markets. This result is precisely as useful as being able to predict whether the close two days from now will be higher or lower than today's close with an accuracy of 50%.

Hi bfitch,

Thank you very much for your explanations. It is good to understand more about what the program actually does.

Is the program you wrote available?

gomad

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  #11 (permalink)
bfitch
Portland, Oregon, USA
 
 
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The program that I wrote isn't currently in publicly distributable form, but its only purpose was to determine the expected percentage of accuracy (given no information other than the current close, the current typical price, and the current 3-day SMA of typical price) for making a simple "higher or lower" prediction regarding the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future. Rather than 50%, as implied in one of the VantagePoint consultant videos, the expected percentage is about 78.27%. A result in that ballpark has zero usefulness in trading, because it reflects only information that is already known at the time of the prediction.

You can reproduce the program by estimating the SMA of typical price two days in the future by using today's typical price, today's close as a proxy for tomorrow's typical price, and today's close as a proxy for the typical price the day after tomorrow. Average those three typical prices (today's typical price + today's close + today's close, all divided by three); then if the result is higher than today's 3-day SMA of typical price, the prediction is that the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher than the current SMA of typical price, and if the estimated future SMA of typical price is lower than today's SMA of typical price, the prediction is that the actual SMA of typical price two days in the future will be lower than the current SMA of typical price. This prediction will have an average accuracy of about 78.2%.

This indicates that VantagePoint's "predicted neural index", which produces virtually the exact same average accuracy for this particular prediction as our simple algorithm, adds no value to the price information already known to everyone as of the current close. If there are any markets for which the VantagePoint "predicted neural index" consistently and significantly beats the average of 78.2%, the neural networks might be adding some value in those markets, but it is at least equally likely that all markets will produce approximately the same expected average accuracy in the future over a large sample.

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 raj1301 
Wayne, PA
 
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I bought this software 9 months back. The guy somehow got my phone number and did good marketing. I told him that price is too high and there is no money back guarantee and I do not want it. However the guy reduced the price by 70% and I finally bought the software. It is nothing but glorified calculator. You can find lot of emini calculators in various websites which gives better prediction than Vantagepoint. They promised training sessions and webinars. Once you purchase it is all over. You cannot reach the sales guy and he will not reply to your emails. The support guy will offer webinars but you need to pay for the webinars. If you send email reminding about the training session, you will not get any reply. It is a bad investment for me.

Raj

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 gomad 
Tirgu Mures, Romania
 
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Thank you for your answer and advice. They have called me also many times...I am glad I did not buy it...

Have a nice day

Gomad


raj1301 View Post
I bought this software 9 months back. The guy somehow got my phone number and did good marketing. I told him that price is too high and there is no money back guarantee and I do not want it. However the guy reduced the price by 70% and I finally bought the software. It is nothing but glorified calculator. You can find lot of emini calculators in various websites which gives better prediction than Vantagepoint. They promised training sessions and webinars. Once you purchase it is all over. You cannot reach the sales guy and he will not reply to your emails. The support guy will offer webinars but you need to pay for the webinars. If you send email reminding about the training session, you will not get any reply. It is a bad investment for me.

Raj


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 rdtw 
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bfitch View Post
The program that I wrote isn't currently in publicly distributable form, but its only purpose was to determine the expected percentage of accuracy (given no information other than the current close, the current typical price, and the current 3-day SMA of typical price) for making a simple "higher or lower" prediction regarding the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future. Rather than 50%, as implied in one of the VantagePoint consultant videos, the expected percentage is about 78.27%. A result in that ballpark has zero usefulness in trading, because it reflects only information that is already known at the time of the prediction.

You can reproduce the program by estimating the SMA of typical price two days in the future by using today's typical price, today's close as a proxy for tomorrow's typical price, and today's close as a proxy for the typical price the day after tomorrow. Average those three typical prices (today's typical price + today's close + today's close, all divided by three); then if the result is higher than today's 3-day SMA of typical price, the prediction is that the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher than the current SMA of typical price, and if the estimated future SMA of typical price is lower than today's SMA of typical price, the prediction is that the actual SMA of typical price two days in the future will be lower than the current SMA of typical price. This prediction will have an average accuracy of about 78.2%.

This indicates that VantagePoint's "predicted neural index", which produces virtually the exact same average accuracy for this particular prediction as our simple algorithm, adds no value to the price information already known to everyone as of the current close. If there are any markets for which the VantagePoint "predicted neural index" consistently and significantly beats the average of 78.2%, the neural networks might be adding some value in those markets, but it is at least equally likely that all markets will produce approximately the same expected average accuracy in the future over a large sample.

Just curious, why is the prediction for two days out and not one.
Would it be possible to do a one day out prediction? and if so wouldn't it be more accurate?

thanx for sharing bfitch

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 dynoweb 
McKinney, TX
 
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I know this is a old thread, but I recently bought this software. If anyone else bought this or uses this, I'd like to compare notes. Please send me a PM.

@dynoweb

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 ostadler 
Munich, Germany
 
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Hello all,

as I am quitting trading now I have a license for VantagePoint for sale. Please pm me if you are interested and also tell me how much you would be willing to pay. Paypal and bank transfer preferred.

Thanks a lot, many greetings,
Oliver

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 Forexoil 
Bangkok thailand
 
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I was one of the suckers back in 2003. It is completely useless. I am suprised the vendors aren't in prison.

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 tradethetrend 
El Paso, Texas, United States
 
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Hi,

I received a sales call yesterday from a young lady at Vantage Point. I asked her how she got my tel. #. She said I must have visited their site in the last few days.

I actually visited their site about 10 or 15 years ago, never since, and not in recent time. I think she was a relatively new sales person to whom they had given a very old list to mine. A shame she wasn't honest with me about it.

We went over the basics of their software, I reviewed their site and blog today. She was going to call me back today but never did. I'm not impressed. I also read elsewhere they have a pretty stiff price.

Long and short for me is after spending too much $ on stuff that worked just enough to make me think I had something good, to only lose me money long term, if I don't see a real time track record posted, which is totally allowed by law, I'm not buying it.

I am interested however in one thing: She gave me a high and low for the ES predicted by their software for yesterday - 2126 and 2101 on the low. The low was right around 2100 at end of day. The software had predicted an up day but it was a down day after an early slight rally.

I would be curious if any members are actually using Vantage Point actively, how reliable the highs and lows are that the software generates for the next day, since it was spot on for the low for the one day I had the #s. Would appreciate feedback.

Thanks,

Marc - mmarcmtchl@aol.com

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 forgiven 
Fletcher NC
 
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80% come on. if there any advantage point users that were green in 30 days and now live in Saint Kitts please share with us the the blessed thrill ride

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 iq200 
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If moving averages worked everyone would be a millionaire

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 john33445 
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Buddy of mine loves the software says it calls the high/low pretty close with exception to big news days. I haven't seen it perform better than standard pivots.

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 dynoweb 
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forgiven View Post
80% come on. if there any advantage point users that were green in 30 days and now live in Saint Kitts please share with us the the blessed thrill ride

I was one of the suckers that bought the software. After buying the software, it was impossible for anyone at Vantage Point to give you the details of what 80% was based on. Their AI predictive indicator was the most common response as to what they were referring to.

Since I like developing Ninja and Tradestation trading strategies, I went on a quest to understand their predictive indicator. I found out that it uses a 14 day ATR and takes 42% of a the ATR and adds/subtracts from the prior day's close to come up with it's predictive range. (Wow, I'm impressed at the amount of work they did on that AI. - sarcasm)

Please review the following if you are even slightly considering buying the software

vantage-point-software review

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 forgiven 
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dynoweb View Post
I was one of the suckers that bought the software. After buying the software, it was impossible for anyone at Vantage Point to give you the details of what 80% was based on. Their AI predictive indicator was the most common response as to what they were referring to.

Since I like developing Ninja and Tradestation trading strategies, I went on a quest to understand their predictive indicator. I found out that it uses a 14 day ATR and takes 42% of a the ATR and adds/subtracts from the prior day's close to come up with it's predictive range. (Wow, I'm impressed at the amount of work they did on that AI. - sarcasm)

Please review the following if you are even slightly considering buying the software

vantage-point-software review

i would not buy any third party trading software . i have bought 30,000 of B.S. my self

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 Oriole 
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Update, I just watched a LIVE presentation. $997/year and he guarantees if you are not making money after 1 year he will take your word on it and give you another year. It's pretty cool looking but I'm not buying it even though I love to waste my money on stuff like this

The lifetime license must cost thousands. He did not disclose that price. You also gotta pay $35 a month for data.

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 forgiven 
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Oriole View Post
Update, I just watched a LIVE presentation. $997/year and he guarantees if you are not making money after 1 year he will take your word on it and give you another year. It's pretty cool looking but I'm not buying it even though I love to waste my money on stuff like this

The lifetime license must cost thousands. He did not disclose that price. You also gotta pay $35 a month for data.

the word of a trading vendor is like butt wipes , pull the handle and flush .

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