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VantagePoint - Predicting the Market??


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VantagePoint - Predicting the Market??

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  #11 (permalink)
bfitch
Portland, Oregon, USA
 
 
Posts: 2 since May 2011
Thanks: 0 given, 14 received

The program that I wrote isn't currently in publicly distributable form, but its only purpose was to determine the expected percentage of accuracy (given no information other than the current close, the current typical price, and the current 3-day SMA of typical price) for making a simple "higher or lower" prediction regarding the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future. Rather than 50%, as implied in one of the VantagePoint consultant videos, the expected percentage is about 78.27%. A result in that ballpark has zero usefulness in trading, because it reflects only information that is already known at the time of the prediction.

You can reproduce the program by estimating the SMA of typical price two days in the future by using today's typical price, today's close as a proxy for tomorrow's typical price, and today's close as a proxy for the typical price the day after tomorrow. Average those three typical prices (today's typical price + today's close + today's close, all divided by three); then if the result is higher than today's 3-day SMA of typical price, the prediction is that the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher than the current SMA of typical price, and if the estimated future SMA of typical price is lower than today's SMA of typical price, the prediction is that the actual SMA of typical price two days in the future will be lower than the current SMA of typical price. This prediction will have an average accuracy of about 78.2%.

This indicates that VantagePoint's "predicted neural index", which produces virtually the exact same average accuracy for this particular prediction as our simple algorithm, adds no value to the price information already known to everyone as of the current close. If there are any markets for which the VantagePoint "predicted neural index" consistently and significantly beats the average of 78.2%, the neural networks might be adding some value in those markets, but it is at least equally likely that all markets will produce approximately the same expected average accuracy in the future over a large sample.

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  #12 (permalink)
 raj1301 
Wayne, PA
 
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I bought this software 9 months back. The guy somehow got my phone number and did good marketing. I told him that price is too high and there is no money back guarantee and I do not want it. However the guy reduced the price by 70% and I finally bought the software. It is nothing but glorified calculator. You can find lot of emini calculators in various websites which gives better prediction than Vantagepoint. They promised training sessions and webinars. Once you purchase it is all over. You cannot reach the sales guy and he will not reply to your emails. The support guy will offer webinars but you need to pay for the webinars. If you send email reminding about the training session, you will not get any reply. It is a bad investment for me.

Raj

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  #13 (permalink)
 gomad 
Tirgu Mures, Romania
 
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Thank you for your answer and advice. They have called me also many times...I am glad I did not buy it...

Have a nice day

Gomad


raj1301 View Post
I bought this software 9 months back. The guy somehow got my phone number and did good marketing. I told him that price is too high and there is no money back guarantee and I do not want it. However the guy reduced the price by 70% and I finally bought the software. It is nothing but glorified calculator. You can find lot of emini calculators in various websites which gives better prediction than Vantagepoint. They promised training sessions and webinars. Once you purchase it is all over. You cannot reach the sales guy and he will not reply to your emails. The support guy will offer webinars but you need to pay for the webinars. If you send email reminding about the training session, you will not get any reply. It is a bad investment for me.

Raj


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  #14 (permalink)
 rdtw 
Des Moines Iowa United States
 
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bfitch View Post
The program that I wrote isn't currently in publicly distributable form, but its only purpose was to determine the expected percentage of accuracy (given no information other than the current close, the current typical price, and the current 3-day SMA of typical price) for making a simple "higher or lower" prediction regarding the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future. Rather than 50%, as implied in one of the VantagePoint consultant videos, the expected percentage is about 78.27%. A result in that ballpark has zero usefulness in trading, because it reflects only information that is already known at the time of the prediction.

You can reproduce the program by estimating the SMA of typical price two days in the future by using today's typical price, today's close as a proxy for tomorrow's typical price, and today's close as a proxy for the typical price the day after tomorrow. Average those three typical prices (today's typical price + today's close + today's close, all divided by three); then if the result is higher than today's 3-day SMA of typical price, the prediction is that the 3-day SMA of typical price two days in the future will be higher than the current SMA of typical price, and if the estimated future SMA of typical price is lower than today's SMA of typical price, the prediction is that the actual SMA of typical price two days in the future will be lower than the current SMA of typical price. This prediction will have an average accuracy of about 78.2%.

This indicates that VantagePoint's "predicted neural index", which produces virtually the exact same average accuracy for this particular prediction as our simple algorithm, adds no value to the price information already known to everyone as of the current close. If there are any markets for which the VantagePoint "predicted neural index" consistently and significantly beats the average of 78.2%, the neural networks might be adding some value in those markets, but it is at least equally likely that all markets will produce approximately the same expected average accuracy in the future over a large sample.

Just curious, why is the prediction for two days out and not one.
Would it be possible to do a one day out prediction? and if so wouldn't it be more accurate?

thanx for sharing bfitch

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  #15 (permalink)
 dynoweb 
McKinney, TX
 
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I know this is a old thread, but I recently bought this software. If anyone else bought this or uses this, I'd like to compare notes. Please send me a PM.

@dynoweb

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  #16 (permalink)
 ostadler 
Munich, Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Hello all,

as I am quitting trading now I have a license for VantagePoint for sale. Please pm me if you are interested and also tell me how much you would be willing to pay. Paypal and bank transfer preferred.

Thanks a lot, many greetings,
Oliver

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  #17 (permalink)
 Forexoil 
Bangkok thailand
 
Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 116 since Jan 2015
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I was one of the suckers back in 2003. It is completely useless. I am suprised the vendors aren't in prison.

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  #18 (permalink)
 tradethetrend 
El Paso, Texas, United States
 
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Hi,

I received a sales call yesterday from a young lady at Vantage Point. I asked her how she got my tel. #. She said I must have visited their site in the last few days.

I actually visited their site about 10 or 15 years ago, never since, and not in recent time. I think she was a relatively new sales person to whom they had given a very old list to mine. A shame she wasn't honest with me about it.

We went over the basics of their software, I reviewed their site and blog today. She was going to call me back today but never did. I'm not impressed. I also read elsewhere they have a pretty stiff price.

Long and short for me is after spending too much $ on stuff that worked just enough to make me think I had something good, to only lose me money long term, if I don't see a real time track record posted, which is totally allowed by law, I'm not buying it.

I am interested however in one thing: She gave me a high and low for the ES predicted by their software for yesterday - 2126 and 2101 on the low. The low was right around 2100 at end of day. The software had predicted an up day but it was a down day after an early slight rally.

I would be curious if any members are actually using Vantage Point actively, how reliable the highs and lows are that the software generates for the next day, since it was spot on for the low for the one day I had the #s. Would appreciate feedback.

Thanks,

Marc - [email protected]

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  #19 (permalink)
 forgiven 
Fletcher NC
 
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80% come on. if there any advantage point users that were green in 30 days and now live in Saint Kitts please share with us the the blessed thrill ride

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  #20 (permalink)
 iq200 
London, UK
 
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