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Has anyone ever heard of Felton Trading? (www.feltontrading.com)
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Has anyone ever heard of Felton Trading? (www.feltontrading.com)

  #281 (permalink)
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nakachalet View Post

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SHALOM and enjoy the attachment without any recourse whatever.

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Fully agree with your response. But, I have to comment on your attachments. Never judge a system by a few well chosen cherry picked signals. Even the clock on the wall that doesn't work shows the correct time twice a day. This is why when I show my charts, I will show an entire day's chart, or an entire week's chart, showing every signal, win, loose, or draw. It's too easy to cherry pick the 5 winning signals out of the 45 losers, and willingly or unwillingly misrepresent a system.

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  #282 (permalink)
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mattz View Post
I think you must compare other things beyond time/hours.

It could be the case where prop shops have a designed a program in place run by experienced traders
addressing things that a trader might take months or years to discover on his/her own.

Most self-directed traders are ON THEIR OWN with a screen making mistakes on their OWN CAPITAL.
This makes the game completely different for the most of us.

Lastly, not all prop shops are a recipe of success, because I know quite a few in the industry who run them.
It took some of them quite a a few years to build a solid team.

Well - there's some other differences.

- Prop trainees aren't allowed to try something for 2 days, decide it doesn't work and go to Google looking for an answer.

- Prop trainees get selected

- Retail traders never bother to look @ what professionals do, they presume that book writers and forum contributors are where it's at

Apart from that, I agree with your points but it does not change what works. Prop shops teach what they do for a reason. If indicator systems worked, they'd be teaching their students that.

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  #283 (permalink)
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bmt rules are bmt rules,if rodger and mike could not come to an agreement then they need to part ways,im not always pleased with how bmt is, but in the end mike and i come to some kind of agreement that works for both us us.rodger is a good man i know him as a friend outside of bmt. he is a nice guy and a strait foward guy with a method that works for him. his div pro indicator is also pretty good but a indicator wont make you a trader...Sharky

KILLING THE MARKETS DAILY
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  #284 (permalink)
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proprietors of different tools do have different interests


monpere View Post
Fully agree with your response. But, I have to comment on your attachments. Never judge a system by a few well chosen cherry picked signals. Even the clock on the wall that doesn't work shows the correct time twice a day. This is why when I show my charts, I will show an entire day's chart, or an entire week's chart, showing every signal, win, loose, or draw. It's too easy to cherry pick the 5 winning signals out of the 45 losers, and willingly or unwillingly misrepresent a system.

the main reason that the chart is posted at the end without any prior reference one way or the other, is for @@jkiwi / dj sole benefit.

did not want @@jkiwi / dj to think that he was the only one who spent endless hours on something that was exclusively intriguing. as far as i knew, there are more than a handful within bmt who also spent endless hours and sleepless nights to pursue something that was of immense interest.

one major different between and amongst several of us is, after endless sleepless days and nights, we all seem to arrive at similar conclusion which is, that there appears to be no one statistical tool that could effective and conclusively corner the markets toward consistent profitability. many offer various reasons for their failure to arrive at some worthwhile destination.

some would go on to interpret and imply what they discovered to others who are also on the journey to rediscover their personal utopia, without allowing adequate individual differences in their application of what they discovered.

a few would press forward to analyze their findings and to tweak and combine all the positive results into a few combined traits which they could study and analyze further toward a possible tradeable solution which they can apply to their existing trading framework. while many others would just throw up their hands and gave up or just conveniently concluded that, that was it, and that there would be no other possibility.

i personally also like @jkiwi / dj's effort and determination which are paramountly important traits for anyone wishing to be successful. however, if i were @jkiwi / dj, i would only delimit my generalization to limited application and scope to only what my sample and my resultant findings would allow. <nothing personal here either, K?>

anyway coming back to your observation, monpere my friend, just for your personal info, there are just not too many traders who trade for profits would allow anyone else to look at their live trading screen or their so-called holy grail trading contraptions; am i correct in my assumption or not? perhaps, i was showing too much already.

however, my friend, if you or others wish to post the whole chart or whatever, you surely are entitled to and welcomed to as well. and i would be delighted to view your whole trading chart with interest. pls do let me know when you would post your live trading chart for us to enjoy, K?

have a wonderful and safe wkend, everyone.

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  #285 (permalink)
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nakachalet View Post
the main reason that the chart is posted at the end without any prior reference one way or the other, is for @@jkiwi / dj sole benefit.

did not want @@jkiwi / dj to think that he was the only one who spent endless hours on something that was exclusively intriguing. as far as i knew, there are more than a handful within bmt who also spent endless hours and sleepless nights to pursue something that was of immense interest.

one major different between and amongst several of us is, after endless sleepless days and nights, we all seem to arrive at similar conclusion which is, that there appears to be no one statistical tool that could effective and conclusively corner the markets toward consistent profitability. many offer various reasons for their failure to arrive at some worthwhile destination.

some would go on to interpret and imply what they discovered to others who are also on the journey to rediscover their personal utopia, without allowing adequate individual differences in their application of what they discovered.

a few would press forward to analyze their findings and to tweak and combine all the positive results into a few combined traits which they could study and analyze further toward a possible tradeable solution which they can apply to their existing trading framework. while many others would just throw up their hands and gave up or just conveniently concluded that, that was it, and that there would be no other possibility.

i personally also like @jkiwi / dj's effort and determination which are paramountly important traits for anyone wishing to be successful. however, if i were @jkiwi / dj, i would only delimit my generalization to limited application and scope to only what my sample and my resultant findings would allow. <nothing personal here either, K?>

anyway coming back to your observation, monpere my friend, just for your personal info, there are just not too many traders who trade for profits would allow anyone else to look at their live trading screen or their so-called holy grail trading contraptions; am i correct in my assumption or not? perhaps, i was showing too much already.

however, my friend, if you or others wish to post the whole chart or whatever, you surely are entitled to and welcomed to as well. and i would be delighted to view your whole trading chart with interest. pls do let me know when you would post your live trading chart for us to enjoy, K?

have a wonderful and safe wkend, everyone.

I was not referring to revealing one's trading method. The point I was trying to make is that a few well chosen cherry picked winning signals are not enough to prove a method works. You need a large sample of those signals, win, loose, or draw (not just well chosen winners) to get a more realistic view of a method. Since I am a day trader, when I show charts, I show my charts for the entire day with all the signals marked, but no, I do not reveal the details my trading method or full details of how the signals were derived.

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  #286 (permalink)
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I 100% agree with Monpere's perception, as we have to average atleast 2-3 weeks of charts around same time, like mkt open 930-1030 est. or else is all non-sense.

I would see charts for atleast 3 weeks of mkt open and we will definitely find some rough days - and rough days for a particular system may be sweet for another system. it is all we learn as we stare at screen and charts

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  #287 (permalink)
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mattz View Post
I am not addressing any vendor specifically. But, if a vendor starts to show actual real performance reports I believe he would have to be licensed. Its not that simple to release real results to the public without having strong legal consequences.

Hi, I think the point here is vendors should be required to show real results by law. I'm not aware of any law that would prohibit a vendor from publishing audited financial performance although would welcome anybody with specific knowledge in this area.

The more probable scenario is very few of them make any money with their systems hence their reluctance to post any form of independently audited results. I suspect the only way most of the them would be able to show a system that generates consistently profitable results is by falsifying the numbers. This of course would have legal consequences.

I continue to reiterate, anybody thinking of signing up with Felton Trading or any other vendor for that matter should ask the basic question:

"If this trading system is so profitable why is this person selling it to me as opposed to trading it themselves?"

Cheers
DJ

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  #288 (permalink)
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djkiwi View Post
Hi, I think the point here is vendors should be required to show real results by law. I'm not aware of any law that would prohibit a vendor from publishing audited financial performance although would welcome anybody with specific knowledge in this area.

The more probable scenario is very few of them make any money with their systems hence their reluctance to post any form of independently audited results. I suspect the only way most of the them would be able to show a system that generates consistently profitable results is by falsifying the numbers. This of course would have legal consequences.

I continue to reiterate, anybody thinking of signing up with Felton Trading or any other vendor for that matter should ask the basic question:

"If this trading system is so profitable why is this person selling it to me as opposed to trading it themselves?"

Cheers
DJ

The answer in this case is simple. Roger doesn't trade -- He sims. You should see me in a simulator -- I'm amazing. LOL!

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  #289 (permalink)
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djkiwi;here is another PERHAPS holy grail at your own risk.


monpere View Post
I was not referring to revealing one's trading method. The point I was trying to make is that a few well chosen cherry picked winning signals are not enough to prove a method works. You need a large sample of those signals, win, loose, or draw (not just well chosen winners) to get a more realistic view of a method. Since I am a day trader, when I show charts, I show my charts for the entire day with all the signals marked, but no, I do not reveal the details my trading method or full details of how the signals were derived.


-------------------
emini_Holy_Grail

I 100% agree with Monpere's perception, as we have to average atleast 2-3 weeks of charts around same time, like mkt open 930-1030 est. or else is all non-sense.

I would see charts for atleast 3 weeks of mkt open and we will definitely find some rough days - and rough days for a particular system may be sweet for another system. it is all we learn as we stare at screen and charts

-------------------
djkiwi

I am not addressing any vendor specifically.... vendors should be required to show real results by law....

The more probable scenario is very few of them make any money with their systems hence their reluctance to post any form of independently audited results. I suspect the only way most of the them would be able to show a system that generates consistently profitable results is by falsifying the numbers. This of course would have legal consequences.... I continue to reiterate, anybody thinking of signing up with Felton Trading or any other vendor for that matter should ask the basic question:

"If this trading system is so profitable why is this person selling it to me as opposed to trading it themselves?"

Cheers
DJ
-------------------

@djkiwi

you are so very wise in your closing question which also is most often asked by most sensible traders everywhere--

If this trading system is so profitable why is this person selling it to me as opposed to trading it themselves?
-------------------

....but then again, @djkiwi, do you think there are legitimate vendors or traders out there who have more than one so-called holy grails?

....and is it plausible that the trader/vendor is willing to just part with the oldest one and withhold the most recent discoveries?

....is that scenario probable at all perhaps?

just a thought.
-------------------

anyway, thanks very much for helping me answering those who wish to see the whole trading screens. the best answer i could offer at this time is, at this point in time; none of contraptions is offered for sale nor will any be shown to generate public recognition and accolade. my humble apology.

hope everyone has a satisfying and restful holiday. also wish everyone profitable trading sessions ahead. cheers.
------------------
@djkiwi

just to remind you of what you stated earlier:
....a few well chosen cherry picked winning signals are not enough to prove a method works....

and in appreciation of your tremendous efforts in your latest responses above, another so-called holy grail is pushed up for your rare and extreme pleasure. if i remember it correctly, it covered more than three days of data, in fact, it should cover the prior whole week to avoid your stating that, it was cherry picking to inadequately convince anyone. the chart is further striped off other inessential markings to allow everyone to have a better view of this trading vehicle after it has been vigorously tweaked and tweaked and tweaked from its original humble and ordinary beginning until there seem to be nothing left but sticks, bricks and bones for better interpretation.... LOL

frankly speaking, i really do not have any particular need to upload another so-called holy grail to silence many other doubting thomases but then my partners won't have any of such skeptic baloney either.... L O L....

mind you, there are numerous others here who possess even greater trading vehicles than anything and everything that anyone would have the privilege to view and enjoy.... but also there is no incentive for any of them to show and tell their money making setups, which is most understandable.

neither is there any pecuniary incentive nor any other incentive for any of them to show us their priceless trading vehicles. i won't blame them nor label them them at all; neither would i express any doubt if such superlative minds and traders exist among us.

indeed there are many, particularly the case involved the gentleman from bangkok, thailand who has been trading profitably and consistently for months on end, and doing so silently behind closed door.

and if you recall, the same gentleman also submitted his broker statements to silence numerous critics who doubted that there is anyone in real life, who can trade profitably and consistently over a period of time. yes, he is a bmt member as well.

pls do remember, i disavow any personal and financial responsibility should the Ying-Yang Candles fail to enrich you in any which way you envision, alright? consider you are forewarned, ladies and gentlemen.

thx again, djkiwi and emini-holy grail, for this opportunity generated by your earlier statement.

have a happy and safe holiday and whatever is left of it.... cheers.



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Has anyone ever heard of Felton Trading? (www.feltontrading.com)-ying-yang-bricks-yyb-vontison-gmail.com-2012-05-29m-001.png  

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  #290 (permalink)
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nakachalet View Post
-------------------

but then again, @djkiwi, do you thnik there are ligitimate vendors out there who have more than one so-called holy grails?

and is it plausible that the trader/vendor is willing to just part with the oldest one and withhold the most recent discoveries?
-------------------

Hi, I think nearly all vendors are failed traders who often have better sales and marketing skills than trading skills. It's like the guy who wanted to be a pilot but didn't qualify and ended up as an aircraft engineer to at least be close to the action.

Vendor products are sadly directed at novice traders who unfortunately do not know any better and greed overrides their normally sound judgment.

To answer your question specifically I've had a quick look at Felton trading's website and would put forward the following points for comment. Comments will relate to the following excerpt:

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1. Quote one highlighted - "the method itself often pinpoints the exact minute and second that the market is going to make a move".

Of course any trader with even a small amount of experience would recognize this claim as nonsense. Even the "smart money" do not know when the move will take place and will scale into a position around their preferred entry range.

Now of course if the Felton method was able to identify moves to the exact minute and second do you think the inventor would be telling you about it or trading on sim?

2. Quote 2 - "Stops are never more than a point in the Russell 2000".

This is also an interesting public statement. Tight fixed rate stops without considering volatility is often a proven recipe for disaster. Death by 1000 cuts.

To illustrate this, I've attached a volatility analysis of the Russell 2000 over the last 3 years based on the morning trading session. It shows the percentile volatility for each 30 minute period. I've highlighted the median (50th percentile) for each half hour period (in points) being 5.9, 4.8, 4.2 and 3.4. So as the day progresses we can see volatility decreasing.

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"Now based on Felton's 1 point stop method the probability of being stopped out in a trade held for more than 30 minutes is well over 90%".

You can see even the bottom 10% from 7.00am - 7.30 am is 3.0 points. So this means that only 10% of trades have an ATR of 3.0 or less.

3. Quote 3 - "capture larger market moves with a special trailing stop technique that is only taught in Felton trading"

Based on point 2, you would not be able to capture any large move because you would be stopped out with the volatility. The "special" trailing stop is simply a marketing ploy aimed at beginner traders. As we all know here, a trailing stop isn't special.

The other point to consider is the Felton method is a scalping method which competes with the autobots. I estimate retail scalpers scalping between 6-18 ticks on TF lose an additional 15-26% of each trade due to slippage and commissions. This is akin to taking your "zero" on a roulette wheel and adding another 7 zeros. Would you play roulette with the house sporting 8 zeros? The problem with scalping is you need an extremely high winning % just to cover your commissions and slippage.

In summary, I cannot say whether a trader would be consistently profitable if they took every trade on the Felton system. However, there does not appear to be anything special that would provide an edge to the trader. Furthermore systems that ignore volatility can get chopped up and slippage and commissions would likely further erode any profitability.



Cheers
DJ

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