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Currently trying to adapt Rez'a Market profile strategy to the 6E which I feel is a more robust and trending market for longer periods than the ES. He concentrates his tactics on the 3- half hour periods A-B-C. So that you make your money without spending all day searching for the opportunities.
Normally I would say that it is really risky to try and capitalize on the first Hour of the "open" because the market has not offered enough data yet to make a assesment (not enough pivot points, support,resistance, etc) However because M.P. allows you to see so much more than HIGH-LOW-CLOSE, I actually see that it can offer enough data to make good trades.
Reza certainly is proving that in his trading room, the guy racks up the trades very early on in the day and basically refuses to take a trade after 11:30 a.m. although it might look good.
He stresses-never get greedy....
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
You can make a good living with a 50% accuracy, if you are trading a greater then 1:1 reward/risk ratio. Historically, how big are your typical stops? and how big are you typical targets?
Let me get this right. You've spent all this time and money, you're screaming from the rooftops that this guy is a master and this method is wonderful and based on maths (by the way, I have standard dev as an indicator, it's not rocket science)
And all this, and you consider you are now profitable based on 9 trades?
Look, you're getting into maths now, and you did all this studying, so please tell me the mathematical basis for your your claim that you are now profitable (and I presume you mean with a high statistical degree of confidence)
(and I don't mean 6/9)
Sorry if I sound somewhat negative, but I want you to know that you may be in for a big shock.
Well, I didn't want to say it because I didn't want to sound negative, or discouraging, but when I saw 9 trades, I thought exactly the same thing.
I think it's great that you are excited about trading again, and found a method that appeals to you, but it's probably a good idea to wait a bit before betting the farm, so to speak. I read somewhere the suggestion that traders should measure their performance by blocks of 100 trades at a time.
Bobby:
Thank you for your response. I am excited for your new found success. Just a note: I would like to commend you for your tenacity in trying to search for and extract information from other members that seemed unable or unwilling to answer your very direct and simple questions that all traders are faced with.
If you would like, I would be willing to establish a line of direct communication between you and me to share information and strategies. If that is the case send me a private message.
The Market Profile methaphor goes much deeper then just knowing where is the second standard deviation. I highly recommend you to visit this page to uplevel your perspective about this tool.
I do actually understand roughly what market profile is about, I was more making a comment on the OP's implication that statistical maths gives it credibility when he clearly hasn't used stats to analyse the results.
Regardless of the implications, - and some of them may be VALID.
All I know is that M.P. is helping me break the 50/50 win-loss barrier that I have been stuck in for the last 5 years!!!
Honestly, Market Profile is not really about predicting market direction(that is still a judgement call on you)
as much as it is a tool that helps me to see how the market SHOULD BEHAVE depending if its determined to be trending or ranging.
For a lot of traders like myself, one of the biggest hurtles is determining the market conditions in order to apply the correct strategy, NOT THE STRATEGY ITSELF, - hell, there are many smart and talented people on this forum, perhaps a lot smarter than I will ever be! And they have conceived of some very powerful trading strategies including BIG MIKE. The BIG Question is WHEN TO USE WHAT.
That is where the power of Market Profile comes in.
Currently taking baby steps, humblely trading two contracts for a point or so a day.....:car:
I would be interested to follow.
