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TEN-THOUSAND IN EDUCATION, FINALLY PAYING OFF

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  #201 (permalink)
 monpere 
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bluemele View Post
You are spot on except that for me personally it helps inspire while I struggle to be a profitable discretionary trader. Kind of like if you signed up for a university and there was no limit in sight for graduation. Some people take 20 years, some never, some 2 years, some 2 months.

Some will be happy with an Associates (2 year degree) instead of the Bachelors (Full undergraduate) and be happy with a few hundred bucks a day and live a middle class lifestyle which is great! Others, they want the big money, want to trade 400 contracts a hit and want to make a few million a month.

Seeing someone 'graduate' offers inspiration to those others who have been on the 'slog'.

You are different in that you like mechanical trading and happy with your concept. Others are not or are in the growing stage. You say, "Why not do what I did as it is so obvious?". Good question, but just like wanting to see the statement, not something I guess I can answer.

Yeah, different personalities require different motivations. I never really asked anyone if they were profitable with their method, I never really cared. But what I want to know is what is the method? How does it work? I didn't care if that person made money with it or not, if that person was profitable or not. I knew that if the method was sound, and it fit my personality, then I would do the work to make it work for me, or at the very least, pick up a nugget or two of wisdom from it that increases my understanding. Never really needed inspiration, just the tools to get me started, get down to the nitty gritty, take the method apart, put it through the paces, make it prove itself. Just different personality types I guess.

That's what I try to do when I advise people about the method I use. Here's what worked for me, go kick the tires, see how it does for you.

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  #202 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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I enjoyed this from "Trading in the Zone"


Quoting 
Most of those who successfully break the cycle don't make the shift in thinking until they have
experienced so much pain from large losses that it has the positive effect of stripping away their
illusions about the nature of trading. With respect to your development, the how of their transformation
is not that important, because in most cases it happened inadvertently. In other words, they weren't
completely aware of the shifts that were taking place inside their mental environment until they
experienced the positive effects their new perspective had on the ways in which they interacted with the
market. This is why very few top traders can really explain what accounts for their success, except to
speak in axioms like "cut your losses" and "go with the flow."


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  #203 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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bluemele View Post
I enjoyed this from "Trading in the Zone"

In particular, I agree with this part:

Quoting 
This is why very few top traders can really explain what accounts for their success, except to
speak in axioms like "cut your losses" and "go with the flow."

I would explain it by simply using the word "experience". But a lot of people dismiss that as being evasive, when really that isn't the intention. Once you stop chasing the holy grail and stop focusing on a million indicators and setups, and truly start working on your own trading, then it is just a matter of time, patience, and discipline to be successful.

Of course, few people truly have the time, patience, and discipline - which is why you see so many going after what they perceive as "short cuts", like third party vendor solutions, trade rooms, someone else's trade method, etc etc.

Mike

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  #204 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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rtrade View Post


bobby, bobby, bobby, from my last post I alluded that you may need psychological assistance. You are beginning to confirm this. It would seem that you have TRUST issues and you also have psychological conflicting views between your conscious and subconscious.

From what I'm seeing from your posts, your conscious wants to believe but your subconscious does not. It would explain after a SUCCESSFUL Trader takes the TIME to show you positive results you first believe but only to sabotage that belief by disbelieving. This would explain why you have your type of trading results.

I think you need to take care of the issues from my last post first before you continue trading....like Stop Drinking, Pay back your 401k, etc.

Just my 1 cent...(the 2 cents has been devalued by the dollar)

Hi,
Thanks for the psych eval.
Yes I did plant the seed of disbelief, put only becouse someone earlier had already turned the soil, I think it was Monpere

Hey, if I can recover my losses, I may consult a counselor. Can you recommend a good one!

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  #205 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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bobbyacim View Post
Hi,
Thanks for the psych eval.
Yes I did plant the seed of disbelief, put only becouse someone earlier had already turned the soil, I think it was Monpere

Hey, if I can recover my losses, I may consult a counselor. Can you recommend a good one!

Not sure if that was a compliment or a blame! But, I would say here be cautious not to trade with the goal of recovering your losses, but rather with the goal of trading well, and let the money take care of itself. The moment you start thinking about recovering your losses, psychologically it will affect your trading, most likely by pushing you to take profits too early, or taking on additional risk, to satisfy the subconscious goal of reducing the recovery amount in order to achieve that goal.

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  #206 (permalink)
 rtrade 
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bobbyacim View Post
Hi,
Thanks for the psych eval.

Your welcome.


bobbyacim View Post
Yes I did plant the seed of disbelief, put only becouse someone earlier had already turned the soil, I think it was Monpere

Hey @monpere, it's ALL YOUR FAULT.

You know, denying responsibility and blaming fault on others goes way back into the Biblical days...you remember Adam and Eve?

Bobby, just remember....WHO made that DECISION "to plant the seed of disbelief," YOU or monpere? That's why I love trading...you can't LIE to the markets.

You'll be surprise to see what kind of answers you get when you look at yourself in the MIRROR.


bobbyacim View Post
Hey, if I can recover my losses, I may consult a counselor. Can you recommend a good one!

I just posted on my journal not get involve in other peoples drama... ... but since you're asking, I'll go as far as I sense your sincerity.

Bobby, you have things a bit backwards....it's not, "I can recover my losses, [then] I may consult a counselor." No, no, no... it's "I will consult a counselor, THEN I will recover my losses!!!"

I'll tell you what, yesterday I posted a good trading series call Million Dollar Trader. <<< ya, click it.

I want you to watch it COMPLETELY from episode 1 to 18. And I want you to tell my which of these traders you associate with...I'm not talking about physicality, but in terms of psychology, emotions, mannerisms, etc.

When you're done let me know....

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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  #207 (permalink)
 forrestang 
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@rtrade
I could be wrong and I don't want to speak for Bobby, but I think he was just joking around when he said that about monpere. A bit of satire maybe....

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  #208 (permalink)
 rtrade 
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forrestang View Post
@ rtrade
I could be wrong and I don't want to speak for Bobby, but I think he was just joking around when he said that about monpere. A bit of satire maybe....


Yes forrestang, you are probably correct...that is why I was just bantering him in a joking nature.

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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  #209 (permalink)
 forrestang 
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rtrade View Post
Yes forrestang, you are probably correct...that is why I was just bantering him in a joking nature.

LOL.... I guess that would make ME the one without a sense of humor!

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  #210 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
Not sure if that was a compliment or a blame! But, I would say here be cautious not to trade with the goal of recovering your losses, but rather with the goal of trading well, and let the money take care of itself. The moment you start thinking about recovering your losses, psychologically it will affect your trading, most likely by pushing you to take profits too early, or taking on additional risk, to satisfy the subconscious goal of reducing the recovery amount in order to achieve that goal.

Thank you counselor!

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  #211 (permalink)
 monpere 
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bobbyacim View Post
Thank you counselor!

I bill per hour

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  #212 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
I bill per hour

Is it a FULL HOUR, or is it the traditional 50 minutes?

Well, based on some of the remarks I've been getting recently, I may have to get an equity loan on my house, could be a lot of sessions....
.
There may be more dis-believers on this thread than the other one, cause no one has of yet challanged or even seriously explored her claim/copies of her $8000 per week trading session.
I have seen people on this thread all over someone when even a modest claim of success has been posted.

Hey, anyone trade the sunday nite session of the 6E ?
Doesn't look like much is occuring. Great nite eveyone, wish everyone awesome trades tomorrow!

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  #213 (permalink)
iTrade2golf
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bobbyacim View Post
There may be more dis-believers on this thread than the other one, cause no one has of yet challanged or even seriously explored her claim/copies of her $8000 per week trading session.
I have seen people on this thread all over someone when even a modest claim of success has been posted.

Someones weekly profit/loss should not be of interest to anyone else. If a dollar amount is the only measure of success then you have not even begun the road to becoming a successful trader.

There are so many variable in this game that comparisons should not be made at all.

Your quest for money can be a reason that holds you back.

Someone who makes $100 a day, can be more successful than someone who makes $500 a day.

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  #214 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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QUOTING ITRADE@GOLFE Someones weekly profit/loss should not be of interest to anyone else. If a dollar amount is the only measure of success then you have not even begun the road to becoming a successful trader.




Maybe your right, I think capital preservation over the long run is a better measure of success. Because if your account is blown, YOUR OUT!

I think it was Donald Trump who once said "take care of the downside and the upside will take care of its self"

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  #215 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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Here are 6 screen shots of a live trade I took this A.M. on the emini S&P around 7:30 EST , I usually try to avoid the S&P, but I saw a clear Hidden divergence between the price and BOTH indicators. There is a double bottom (see if you can spot it) and a lower low on the Stoch as well as a lower low on the CCI. This may have been a sign that a slightly larger SL may be in order.

.
Looked like a good trade:

1. Trend was up- but not too strong as evidenced by the top keltner channel was FLAT also notice a first lower low on price.
2. Stoch D & K turned up from the oversold area and ready to cross- in hindsight I should have waited for a solid cross from the K above the D
3. CCI curled up from the oversold area - maybe should have waited for CCI cross of zero line??
4. The ATR Stoploss appeared ONLY 2 ticks BELOW the Trigger bar; very low risk trade!!!!!!

ENTERED at 1330, keep an eye on the TP at 1332 until screen shot #6!

Took the buy, but not with my usual 5 tick arbitrary stop, NO; I used the A.T.R. stoploss indicator I recently added
Well, kept using the A.T.R stoploss, but I got stopped out anyway.
And, as you can see the price did reach 1332 and above. So if my stoploss was slightly larger, I could have walked with 2 points.

LESSON LEARNED: I have just increased the ATR settings from 1.5 to 1.7 on the emini S&P

Any/all critiques are welcomed on this trade...

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  #216 (permalink)
 monpere 
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bobbyacim View Post
...I usually try to avoid the S&P...

That statement is the reason why you should not have been in that trade. It is the classic psychological greed complex that pushed you to try to trade an instrument you are not intimately familiar with. Don't try to trade 17 setups on 9 different instruments, or try to trade random targets of opportunity. Concentrate on 1 (maybe 2) setups on 1 instrument, especially at this stage. Check out cjbooth's thread (the winner of the last futures.io (formerly BMT) thread contest) on trading the 6E as an example.

I have been trading full time for 6 years, I have never, even once placed a trade on the ES. My method was not designed for the ES, I have never tested it on the ES, I have no business trading the ES. That would apply for 99% of the other instruments out there as well.

That'll be $180 for this session

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  #217 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
That statement is the reason why you should not have been in that trade. It is the classic psychological greed complex that pushed you to try to trade an instrument you are not intimately familiar with. Don't try to trade 17 setups on 9 different instruments, or try to trade random targets of opportunity. Concentrate on 1 (maybe 2) setups on 1 instrument, especially at this stage. Check out cjbooth's thread (the winner of the last futures.io (formerly BMT) thread contest) on trading the 6E as an example.

I have been trading full time for 6 years, I have never, even once placed a trade on the ES. My method was not designed for the ES, I have never tested it on the ES, I have no business trading the ES. That would apply for 99% of the other instruments out there as well.

That'll be $180 for this session

Yes, I see you your point buddy. I only have 2 setups, hidden divergence and my little 3 pin price action setup and i only take the H.D. when it is so clear that it screams out to me (ever since I lost 2 k trading it) and as you can see on the chart, this one was yelling!!!!

This one was my FAULT, for being chessy with my S.L. (perhaps fear)
I am keeping my intregrity, traded with 1 contract only.

Any critique on the setup itself??

by the way, you say you've been trading 6 years FULL-TIME, are you profitable?

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  #218 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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Have you come back to offer more combative verbage, or are you going to offer some valuable input?

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  #219 (permalink)
 Lornz 
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bobbyacim View Post
Yes, I see you your point buddy. I only have 2 setups, hidden divergence and my little 3 pin price action setup and i only take the H.D. when it is so clear that it screams out to me (ever since I lost 2 k trading it) and as you can see on the chart, this one was yelling!!!!

This one was my FAULT, for being chessy with my S.L. (perhaps fear)
I am keeping my intregrity, traded with 1 contract only.

Any critique on the setup itself??

On the ES you usually have to scalp for a few ticks or leave point or two of wiggle room for larger moves. It can easily chop you to death otherwise...

Look at your ES chart. You should have gotten in at the (anticipated) double bottom at 1329. The key is, of course, to know whether to fade those levels or not. Focus on major S/R and leave the randomness to others....

This advice was free, but it was also my last...

Good luck!

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  #220 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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Lornz View Post
On the ES you usually have to scalp for a few ticks or leave point or two of wiggle room for larger moves. It can easily chop you to death otherwise...

Look at your ES chart. You should have gotten in at the (anticipated) double bottom at 1329. The key is, of course, to know whether to fade those levels or not. Focus on major S/R and leave the randomness to others....

This advice was free, but it was also my last...

Good luck!

NICE!!!

What ever happened to paying it back?
This "anticipated" move takes 10-20 years of chart time to discern.
the rest of us have to rely on something called A CONFLUENCE OF EVIDENCE.

I took the trade at 1330 when I saw a confluence of evidence, but it was not good enough because my stoploss was not right.
This game is SSSOOOO tough, cause you have to get the entry, trade management and exit right,... all at the same time!

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  #221 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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bobbyacim View Post
Yes, I see you your point buddy. I only have 2 setups, hidden divergence and my little 3 pin price action setup and i only take the H.D. when it is so clear that it screams out to me (ever since I lost 2 k trading it) and as you can see on the chart, this one was yelling!!!!

This one was my FAULT, for being chessy with my S.L. (perhaps fear)
I am keeping my intregrity, traded with 1 contract only.

Any critique on the setup itself??

In an objective approach, no matter how much a setup is yelling, it does not hold any more weight then any other occurrence of that setup. If my historically determined expectant win rate for that setup is 70%, that setup is considered to have a 70% chance to win, not 75, not 90, no matter how much it yells, no matter how gorgeous it is. It will be traded exactly like any other occurrence, same risk, same contract sizing, same trade management.

I could not really critique the setup itself since I don't trade it, never researched it, never backtested it, so, I don't know it intimately enough to critique. Now, if you were trading basic divergence, then I might have had a thought or two

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  #222 (permalink)
 Lornz 
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bobbyacim View Post
NICE!!!

What ever happened to paying it back?
This "anticipated" move takes 10-20 years of chart time to discern.
the rest of us have to rely on something called A CONFLUENCE OF EVIDENCE.

I took the trade at 1330 when I saw a confluence of evidence, but it was not good enough.

You might want to focus on other instruments than the ES. Although my views are diametrically opposite of most on this board, I find CL to be a much easier instrument to trade.

One last piece of advice: If I were you, I'd probably watch the markets for some time instead. Take (mental) notes of how the instrument behaves, gather statistics on the average fluctuations etc. Then try to develop a trading plan from the information you have gathered...

Have you considered taking a step back and try to swing trade instead?

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  #223 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
In an objective approach, no matter how much a setup is yelling, it does not hold any more weight then any other occurrence of that setup. If my historically determined expectant win rate for that setup is 70%, that setup is considered to have a 70% chance to win, not 75, not 90, no matter how much it yells, no matter how gorgeous it is. It will be traded exactly like any other occurrence, same risk, same contract sizing, same trade management.

I could not really critique the setup itself since I don't trade it, never researched it, never backtested it, so, I don't know it intimately enough to critique. Now, if you were trading basic divergence, then I might have had a thought or two

This H.D. setup is a Classic Felton move, of course without his Proprietary custom designed indicators and has a 79% win rate. My Risk to reward was 1/4, because my risk was 2ticks(based on A.T.R calc.) PLUS SLIPPAGE and my TP was the far side of the kelter channel, since trend was up.

If I had given it a extra tick to breath, it would have been a winner.

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  #224 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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bobbyacim View Post
...I usually try to avoid the S&P...

its so congested. this is only thing I can come up with, keep piling it up for 2t target.

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  #225 (permalink)
 monpere 
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bobbyacim View Post
This H.D. setup is a Classic Felton move, of course without his Proprietary custom designed indicators and has a 79% win rate. My Risk to reward was 1/4, because my risk was 2ticks(based on A.T.R calc.) PLUS SLIPPAGE and my TP was the far side of the kelter channel, since trend was up.

If I had given it a extra tick to breath, it would have been a winner.

I don't know how a 2 tick stop generally behaves on the ES, but I know I can't get away with that on the instrument I am familiar with like CL, GC. When you say the hidden divergence you trade has a 79% win rate, how did you arrive at that number? Did you measure that win rate on the ES itself? with a 2 tick stop and keltner target? or another instrument altogether? Did you yourself backtest the setup and derived the win rate? I hope you are not taking Felton's word for it

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iTrade2golf
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bobbyacim View Post
This H.D. setup is a Classic Felton move, of course without his Proprietary custom designed indicators and has a 79% win rate. My Risk to reward was 1/4, because my risk was 2ticks(based on A.T.R calc.) PLUS SLIPPAGE and my TP was the far side of the kelter channel, since trend was up.

If I had given it a extra tick to breath, it would have been a winner.

You have much fear in your trading, which if you have read any of my posts, then you should identify this as a personality weakness, and you should now start learning to cope with this or trade around it.

If someone has developed a system with methods that multiply their strengths and understand their weaknesses, and you have done your due diligence then why is a stop loss so close to your entry needed. I do not use any more than a critical stop loss. I use conditions to exit my trade whether it be a profitable or loosing trade, no stop loss is needed if you have confidence in your system.

I am not in the business of doing peoples work for them, but you seem to be struggling with the advice you are given about learning about yourself and putting in the hard work of developing a system that works for yourself so I will give you my method of exiting a trade.

I use a close below/above (depends on if I am short or long the market I am trading) a price level with increased volume to take me out of a trade. So I can't be whipsawed out of a trade by a few ticks or even a few bars and then the trade go in my favor.

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 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
I don't know how a 2 tick stop generally behaves on the ES, but I know I can't get away with that on the instrument I am familiar with like CL, GC. When you say the hidden divergence you trade has a 79% win rate, how did you arrive at that number? Did you measure that win rate on the ES itself? with a 2 tick stop and keltner target? or another instrument altogether? Did you yourself backtest the setup and derived the win rate? I hope you are not taking Felton's word for it

The 2 tick stop was derived by way of calculation of an A.T.R X 1.5 StOPLOSS
I LISTENED to BIG MIKE'S advice a few posts back and scraped my arbitrary stoploss for one determined by the MARKET ITSELF!

And yes, I took feltons word on this one, But on my 3 pin setup I PERSONALLY did manual backtesting to determine the win-rate.

Hey, the guy was head trader for T.I. for a long time and he has been around even longer.

MONPERE, you can not check-out every single thing on your own, he have to "accept somethings, sometimes on faith!.

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 monpere 
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bobbyacim View Post
The 2 tick stop was derived by way of calculation of an A.T.R X 1.5 StOPLOSS
I LISTENED to BIG MIKE'S advice a few posts back and scraped my arbitrary stoploss for one determined by the MARKET ITSELF!

And yes, I took feltons word on this one, But on my 3 pin setup I PERSONALLY did manual backtesing to determine the win-rate.

Hey, the guy was head trader for T.I. for a long time and he has been around even longer.

MONPERE, you can not check-out every single thing on your own, he have to "accept somethings, sometimes on faith!.

The thing about statistical analysis in trading is it has to be pretty specific. Felton may have determined the 79% win rate on a daily chart of the Japanese Yen with a 250 tick stop, and a 5 tick target. That 79% win rate no longer holds water when applied to a 6 tick range of the ES with a 2 tick stop, because then it becomes comparing apples to chickens, that's why I asked the questions. Any stat you use has to come from your own backtesting of the exact method (instrument/entry/stop/exit/trade managemnet) you are trading.

BTW, not trying to ruffle any feathers with my posts.

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 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
The thing about statistical analysis in trading is it has to be pretty specific. Felton may have determined the 79% win rate on a daily chart of the Japanese Yen with a 250 tick stop, and a 5 tick target. That 79% win rate no longer holds water when applied to a 6 tick range of the ES with a 2 tick stop, because then it becomes comparing apples to chickens, that's why I asked the questions. Any stat you use has to come from your own backtesting of the exact method (instrument/entry/stop/exit/trade managemnet) you are trading.

BTW, not trying to ruffle any feathers with my posts.

Monpere,
My friend, I truly appreciate and WELCOME your input, As well as everyone elses, maybe in the process we can all pickup something from this dialog!!

As Spock said in one of the StarTrek episodes "The needs of the many, outweight the needs of the one"

Please bring it on!if it can help improve my(our) skills.

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 Big Mike 
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bobbyacim View Post
I LISTENED to BIG MIKE'S advice

Sorry, but you may have heard me but I don't think you really were listening... at this point Bobby, I really feel you are simply one of the individuals who is not cut out for trading. Do not get upset about it, after all, it is just my opinion and even more than that, trading simply is not for everyone. There are a lot of professions that are not for "everyone", it takes the right kind of person sometimes to really excel in a profession.

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 bobbyacim 
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Big Mike View Post
Sorry, but you may have heard me but I don't think you really were listening... at this point Bobby, I really feel you are simply one of the individuals who is not cut out for trading. Do not get upset about it, after all, it is just my opinion and even more than that, trading simply is not for everyone. There are a lot of professions that are not for "everyone", it takes the right kind of person sometimes to really excel in a profession.

Mike

Thank you SO much BIG Mike for your honest opinion, I did say 'bring it on"

And you want to know something, it even carries more weight, when it is said by someone who has Proven that they are consistantly profitable at this game, cause even I have occasional winners!
As I I recall, you have re-vamped your trade setup a few times.Why?

So I hope you are one of these, but until I know for sure if you are, I will continue.... if its o.k. with you?

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 eudamonia 
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bobbyacim View Post
I will continue.... if its o.k. with you?

Your last sentence reveals a lot of the reason why you are struggling with trading. A successful trader doesn't rely on anyone or anything that they haven't proven to themselves. Do you know the statistics of your method? Have you tested it? What is the expectancy, the MAE, MFE, win ratio, etc. Do you have the capital to trade it? Do you have the emotional wherewithal to trade it?

The most successful trader I know (who works for a hedge fund in London) told me - you must know what you are doing. Do you know what you are doing when it comes to trading Bobby? Or are you relying on faith/luck/gambling machismo? What Mike is suggesting is that you don't know what you are doing (and he's probably right). Put in the hard time (20-30 hours a week on the simulator for several months) and come back with some statistics. Then you will know the right questions to ask. And you probably won't need Mike's or my opinion - because you will know what you are doing.

P.S. As I guy who trades the ES everyday I can tell you that your "method" for trading the ES is gonna end in sadness. I use Market Profile to identify levels, look for TICK divergences, and verify my feel for the level using Bid/Ask Vol at price. I'm not even sophisticated compared to the guys who really trade this market well.

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 bobbyacim 
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eudamonia View Post
Your last sentence reveals a lot of the reason why you are struggling with trading. A successful trader doesn't rely on anyone or anything that they haven't proven to themselves. Do you know the statistics of your method? Have you tested it? What is the expectancy, the MAE, MFE, win ratio, etc. Do you have the capital to trade it? Do you have the emotional wherewithal to trade it?

The most successful trader I know (who works for a hedge fund in London) told me - you must know what you are doing. Do you know what you are doing when it comes to trading Bobby? Or are you relying on faith/luck/gambling machismo? What Mike is suggesting is that you don't know what you are doing (and he's probably right). Put in the hard time (20-30 hours a week on the simulator for several months) and come back with some statistics. Then you will know the right questions to ask. And you probably won't need Mike's or my opinion - because you will know what you are doing.

SORRY, I thought everyone knew from the inception of this thread that I have put in 6 years, over 5000 chart hours, weekends replaying the markets on my ninjatrader, sim trading until my fingers trembled. Lost my last girlfriend to trading, I Am on my 2nd 15k account, that has taken me a lifetime to save.

And, I 'm extremely sorry that I have no control over people that talk out of their A_ _ H_ _ _ s !!!!!!!

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iTrade2golf
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bobbyacim View Post
SORRY, I thought everyone knew from the inception of this thread that I have put in 6 years, over 5000 chart hours, weekends replaying the markets on my ninjatrader, sim trading until my fingers trembled. Lost my last girlfriend to trading, I Am on my 2nd 15k account, that has taken me a lifetime to save.

I 'm sorry that I have no control over people that talk out of their A_ _ H_ _ _ s !!!!!!!


6 years and over 5000 chart hours and you still are unable to get a consistently profitable system

That should tell you either of two things

1. That you are not capable of being a trader either by you personal traits, patience, focus, discipline, work ethic, intelligence

2. Or you have been doing it absolutely incorrect and you should listen to experienced veteran traders who make a very good living doing this and know how to guide someone to success if they have the ability to succeed in this game.


P.S. Please stop being so pretentious by asking for Proof, because you are the one that has spent $10K on someone else doing your work for you, people do not buy success, they achieve it

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 bobbyacim 
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iTrade2golf View Post
6 years and over 5000 chart hours and you still are unable to get a consistently profitable system

That should tell you either of two things

1. That you are not capable of being a trader either by you personal traits, patience, focus, discipline, work ethic, intelligence

2. Or you have been doing it absolutely incorrect and you should listen to experienced veteran traders who make a very good living doing this and know how to guide someone to success if they have the ability to succeed in this game.


P.S. Please stop being so pretentious by asking for Proof, because you are the one that has spent $10K on someone else doing your work for you, people do not buy success, they achieve it

If it is true that approx 95% of the people who try this fail within 1 year, I hope many of them are on this forum and read your words and heed your warning. Because if this happens, you will have saved alot of souls out there from economic self distruction. Thank you

Oh, by the way, I suppose you are one of those who "walks the talk"
So congrats on being a succesful and profitable trader!

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bobbyacim View Post
If it is true that approx 95% of the people who try this fail within 1 year, I hope many of them are on this forum and read your words and heed your warning. Because if this happens, you will have saved alot of souls out there from economic self distruction. Thank you

Oh, by the way, I suppose you are one of those who "walks the talk"
So congrats on being a succesful and profitable trader!


Put everything that is said on this thread away for now and realize one thing because you don't get it. This thread is about YOU and helping YOU and all you are making it about is other people doing your work and other people proving themselves and other people this and other people that, stick to what this thread is and that is helping YOU find your way and your way may not be to trade and it is definitely not to trade the way you have been doing for the last 6+ years and when you get back on that track and listen and learn you may get to where you need to be, where ever that is...

You should read about Paul in the Bible and what it tells you about yourself, that would be my recommendation at this time, since my first one was ignored, you are no closer to knowing yourself TOTALLY than when I first opened and read this thread only because of the title, at first you finally had it and now you are searching yet again

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 eudamonia 
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bobbyacim View Post
SORRY, I thought everyone knew from the inception of this thread that I have put in 6 years, over 5000 chart hours, weekends replaying the markets on my ninjatrader, sim trading until my fingers trembled. Lost my last girlfriend to trading, I Am on my 2nd 15k account, that has taken me a lifetime to save.

And, I 'm extremely sorry that I have no control over people that talk out of their A_ _ H_ _ _ s !!!!!!!

And yet you are trading the ES like a person who has less than 2 months of experience!? You really have only learned to use CCI divergences with a retail (crappy) entry and an arbitrary stop after all that time? It is no wonder you are losing money. And I'm the one talking out of my nether region? ORLY?

The market doesn't care that you put in hard work or spent X hours on the charts. The market doesn't care what your situation is with your girlfriend. The market certainly is happy to take your money. The only thing that matters in the market is the ability to perform. Either you can trade well (positive expectancy) or you can't. Clearly you've proven to yourself that you can't right? So quit. Or perhaps you haven't worked nearly as hard as you let on. You haven't tracked your statistics. You haven't done your homework. You don't know what you are doing. Or you do and you should quit. Seems pretty straight forward.

Now will you actually do the work required to prove it to yourself that trading is possible/impossible? Or won't you? Asking an anonymous poster on the internet (no matter what their answer) is about as relevant to your trading as praying to a Mayan god for salvation. No one can prove it to you. No one else's results will ever matter. You've proven you can lose money consistently right? That money has to go somewhere right? Now can you turn that around and be the taker rather than the takee?

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 bobbyacim 
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iTrade2golf View Post
Put everything that is said on this thread away for now and realize one thing because you don't get it. This thread is about YOU and helping YOU and all you are making it about is other people doing your work and other people proving themselves and other people this and other people that, stick to what this thread is and that is helping YOU find your way and your way may not be to trade and it is definitely not to trade the way you have been doing for the last 6+ years and when you get back on that track and listen and learn you may get to where you need to be, where ever that is...

You should read about Paul in the Bible and what it tells you about yourself, that would be my recommendation at this time, since my first one was ignored, you are no closer to knowing yourself TOTALLY than when I first opened and read this thread only because of the title, at first you finally had it and now you are searching yet again

Itrade2golf,

You are missing my point because you are too wrapped up in yours.
This thread is not about me as you state.
It is about the us! Otherwise, there would not have been 12,000 views on my first thread and almost 10,000 on this one! And over 30,000 laments in one form or another on this entire forum. take a look around my brother....

I think it was Henry Thoreau who once said the Most people lead lives of quiet desperation. It may appear that most struggling traders do too. If you take a look around at the hundred or so threads on this forum and the countless number of other trading forums, you might come to the conclusion that my current reality of my trading results IS NOT UNIQUE TO ME ALONE.

I know you mean well and from the bottom of my heart I really do appreciate the critique and the bible reference as well cause I too have read it TWICE in my lifetime.
All I am saying is STOP coming across like you know all the answers and then going about defining a set of reasons why I am not succesful in my trading.
Because unless you are definitively successful and profitable in your trading, you stand on weak ground to JUDGE conclusively why I or any of the other 30,000 readers on the forum are still struggling.

Since you are a student of the bible, I would like to quote Matthew 7.3

"Why do you look at the speck of saw dust in your brothers eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?"

Please keep the "positive" crtiques coming and hold off on the implications of "bobby you don't have what it takes"
until the curtain call. Believe me, time will tell if it really is true.

My personal feeling is that Big Mike was a little pre-mature in saying this to me, but at least he qualified it by saying "it was only his opionion".

God bless you, and keep those good tradeS coming, maybe I can learn something.



Don't you get it!!!

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 bobbyacim 
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eudamonia View Post
And yet you are trading the ES like a person who has less than 2 months of experience!? You really have only learned to use CCI divergences with a retail (crappy) entry and an arbitrary stop after all that time? It is no wonder you are losing money. And I'm the one talking out of my nether region? ORLY?

The market doesn't care that you put in hard work or spent X hours on the charts. The market doesn't care what your situation is with your girlfriend. The market certainly is happy to take your money. The only thing that matters in the market is the ability to perform. Either you can trade well (positive expectancy) or you can't. Clearly you've proven to yourself that you can't right? So quit. Or perhaps you haven't worked nearly as hard as you let on. You haven't tracked your statistics. You haven't done your homework. You don't know what you are doing. Or you do and you should quit. Seems pretty straight forward.

Now will you actually do the work required to prove it to yourself that trading is possible/impossible? Or won't you? Asking an anonymous poster on the internet (no matter what their answer) is about as relevant to your trading as praying to a Mayan god for salvation. No one can prove it to you. No one else's results will ever matter. You've proven you can lose money consistently right? That money has to go somewhere right? Now can you turn that around and be the taker rather than the takee?

Sincerely and NOT Sarcastically, THANK YOU for your perspective.
I may be fragile and sometimes easily bruised by what I may percieve to be insensitive remarks, but I am not stupid, I can see the forest between the trees (I think...LOL)

Well, if I blow my account, I WILL PUBLICLY COME ON HERE AND APOLOGIZE TO YOU AND THE OTHERS FOR TRYING TO SAVE ME FROM POVERTY. IF I TRADE MY WAY INTO THE BLACK, I EXPECT YOU GUYS TO JOIN ME IN A BEER HERE IN NEW YORK CITY, WHAT DO YOU SAY?

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iTrade2golf
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bobbyacim View Post
Itrade2golf,

You are missing my point because you are too wrapped up in yours.
This thread is not about me as you state.
It is about the us! Otherwise, there would not have been 12,000 views on my first thread and almost 10,000 on this one! And over 30,000 laments in one form or another on this entire forum. take a look around my brother....

I think it was Henry Thoreau who once said the Most people lead lives of quiet desperation. It may appear that most struggling traders do too. If you take a look around at the hundred or so threads on this forum and the countless number of other trading forums, you might come to the conclusion that my current reality of my trading results IS NOT UNIQUE TO ME ALONE.

I know you mean well and from the bottom of my heart I really do appreciate the critique and the bible reference as well cause I too have read it TWICE in my lifetime.
All I am saying is STOP coming across like you know all the answers and then going about defining a set of reasons why I am not succesful in my trading.
Because unless you are definitiively succesful and profitable in your trading, you stand on weak ground to JUDGE conclusively why I or any of the other 30,000 readers on the forum are still struggling.

Since you are a student of the bible, I would like to quote Matthew 7.3

"Why do you look at the speck of saw dust in your brothers eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?"

Please keep the "positive" crtiques coming and hold off on the implications of "bobby you don't have what it takes"
until the curtain call.

My personal feeling is that Big Mike was a little pre-mature in saying this to me, but at least he qualified it by saying "it was only his opionion.

God bless you, and keep those good trader coming, maybe I and the others can learn something.



Don't you get it!!!

I have read your thread and I see the desperation in your words and I offered to you for free what was given to me for free, by someone who I knew personally face to face not on a forum. He mentored and guided me to being a successful trader in my own way.

I have in no way said I have all the answers, quite the contrary I merely said to try something different that was given to me from a proven professional as you wanted.

If you were trying to find help for yourself and other who came across this thread then you would listen and explore alternative approaches than the masses since the masses are 95% and they fail.

As for the Matthew 7:3 reference I am in no way judging you of your sins, I am merely telling you that you may need to look at another profession or change you approach.

bobbyacim I wish you well in your journey and I am at this time done with this thread and will not allow it to take any more of my time

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 Big Mike 
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bobbyacim View Post
Thank you SO much BIG Mike for your honest opinion, I did say 'bring it on"

And you want to know something, it even carries more weight, when it is said by someone who has Proven that they are consistantly profitable at this game, cause even I have occasional winners!
As I I recall, you have re-vamped your trade setup a few times.Why?

So I hope you are one of these, but until I know for sure if you are, I will continue.... if its o.k. with you?

I've revamped as I've gained experience, really as simple as that. And for the most part, each successive "revamp" is simplified the methodology more and more, and focused more and more on risk and money management and order execution (psychology).

Bobby, I believe everyone has the power to change. If you watched my 3 hour webinar "An afternoon with Big Mike" you'll see I've gone through major life changes in order to be successful at trading. So the question I believe is not whether someone has the ability to change or to become a good trader through that change, but rather they really want to.

Self-sabotage is very real and a frequent problem in the trading world. And of course you don't intend to do yourself harm on purpose, on a conscious level... which is why it is so crucially important to get all your surroundings in order so that even your subconscious can remain focused on positive trading

Mike

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 bobbyacim 
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iTrade2golf View Post
I have read your thread and I see the desperation in your words and I offered to you for free what was given to me for free, by someone who I knew personally face to face not on a forum. He mentored and guided me to being a successful trader in my own way.

I have in no way said I have all the answers, quite the contrary I merely said to try something different that was given to me from a proven professional as you wanted.

If you were trying to find help for yourself and other who came across this thread then you would listen and explore alternative approaches than the masses since the masses are 95% and they fail.

As for the Matthew 7:3 reference I am in no way judging you of your sins, I am merely telling you that you may need to look at another profession or change you approach.

bobbyacim I wish you well in your journey and I am at this time done with this thread and will not allow it to take any more of my time

Sorry you are DONE with this thread, I really think I could have learned much from seeing you post some of your trades.

Well, I guess I can surf around and find them. I really believe every little nugget of info can be helpful. Cause someone here recently said that succesful trading is nothing more than a good dose of intuition, then they defined intuition as nothing more than "more experience"

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 bobbyacim 
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Big Mike View Post
I've revamped as I've gained experience, really as simple as that. And for the most part, each successive "revamp" is simplified the methodology more and more, and focused more and more on risk and money management and order execution (psychology).

Bobby, I believe everyone has the power to change. If you watched my 3 hour webinar "An afternoon with Big Mike" you'll see I've gone through major life changes in order to be successful at trading. So the question I believe is not whether someone has the ability to change or to become a good trader through that change, but rather they really want to.

Self-sabotage is very real and a frequent problem in the trading world. And of course you don't intend to do yourself harm on purpose, on a conscious level... which is why it is so crucially important to get all your surroundings in order so that even your subconscious can remain focused on positive trading

Mike

Dear Big Mike,

Everytime I think I have you figured out, you subsequently prove me wrong about you.

Please forgive me for saying this in upper case letters (I know you hate it)

-YOU TRULY ARE A MAN OF GREAT WISDOM!!!!!

Thank you for allowing this lug to participate in this GREAT forum of yours!!!!!

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 jstnbrg 
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timefreedom View Post
. Before being promoted to a "Market Wizard" here on the forum, it would be nice if there was a requirement to provide some evidence of successful trading.

@bigmike: I agree there should be some sort of ranking for members who have been able and willing to prove their profitability with statements.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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 jstnbrg 
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monpere View Post
I would say here be cautious not to trade with the goal of recovering your losses, but rather with the goal of trading well, and let the money take care of itself. The moment you start thinking about recovering your losses, psychologically it will affect your trading, most likely by pushing you to take profits too early, or taking on additional risk, to satisfy the subconscious goal of reducing the recovery amount in order to achieve that goal.

Forget about your losses. They are history. Money you earn in the future will not be money you get "back" but money you earn for the first time. I knew a CBOE options trader with 4 consecutive years of profitability under his belt who lost his year, about $400,000, in a single day in November. He told me he needed to get back his losses, and I told him to take the rest of the year off. He kept trading, and within a few months he had lost his entire account and was out of business.

You can't trade well with visions of losses in your head. Getting back your losses is another form of "revenge trading", and you know how that works out.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #246 (permalink)
 Rayzor 
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jstnbrg View Post
@bigmike: I agree there should be some sort of ranking for members who have been able and willing to prove their profitability with statements.

If it's a statement you want so I can earn a badge that pays and means nothing I guess I will have to pass. All this talk of proving yourself to complete strangers that you are profitable is ridiculous. If anyone that needs proof of my profitability I will be more than happy to provide it when you start paying my bills or even cutting my grass. Trading is a solo sport and I have no need to prove anything to anyone. I have plenty of local trader friends that are far more profitable than me and knowing this has not made me a better trader; I make me a better trader. This "proof argument" is the equivilent of a stranger peering over the mensroom wall while you are using the toilet. Go ahead peanut gallery, lemme' have it.

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  #247 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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jstnbrg View Post
Forget about your losses. They are history. Money you earn in the future will not be money you get "back" but money you earn for the first time. I knew a CBOE options trader with 4 consecutive years of profitability under his belt who lost his year, about $400,000, in a single day in November. He told me he needed to get back his losses, and I told him to take the rest of the year off. He kept trading, and within a few months he had lost his entire account and was out of business.

You can't trade well with visions of losses in your head. Getting back your losses is another form of "revenge trading", and you know how that works out.

WOW, that is extremely powerful and CONSTRUCTIVE advice.
Thank you, Thank you and please keep it coming......

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 bobbyacim 
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Have you been reading the wave of naysayers?
Ironically, they may be right.

I just feel that if I were to send at least 50-100 trade screenshots to a really profitable trader(proven) cause as we we know sooo many people exaggerate their accomplishments; And I was told I can not do this, then I could take this advice seriously.

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  #249 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
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I looked over your trade on the ES Bobby. What you call a "hidden divergence" I've learned to call a "positive reversal" from another school of thought. With this kind divergence, price should be expected to go at least to or above the high at 4:48. (of course , just higher odds. doesn't always work) Then, you had at 7am , the small bar with tail and spike, then a really small doji on the next bar. So pretty much a consolidation pause then, on the Keltner central line. And the big uptrend bar before the last one showed that it had passed the previous high. What clues the pause at the central keltner line had a good probability it was a continuation? Well your stochastic was still on an upslope just passing or having passed the 50 level. Your CCI indicator had also just crossed the 0 level. And you had a very good positive reversal , or "hidden divergence". Why the pause and tails and spikes? Some scalpers were probably getting out at the 1330.50 or with partial profits. However the bulls stayed in control. No single red bar, or strong trendline break. Plus a good trend up through the keltner bands combined with your indicators made it more likely price would continue on through the KB to the other end. Plus the reversal at 6:38 seemed to have finished testing the previous lowest low(at least what can be seen on this chart).

I don't know about your stop indicator, but moving your stop up so soon may not have been the best. Mainly the stop should be used to keep a runaway trade from depleting your account. You just probably need more practice on the ES. Maybe a hundred more trades, or thousands, and try doing a journal either by yourself, or on the forum. And then every week see how many ticks you got. the ES has lots of liquidity and lots of institutional trading. A lot of "trading range" type of trading. So it may tend to test previous entries and exits more. Did you see Al Brook's presentation here on June 29th? If not, I recommend very much to watch it. The best down to earth discussion on how the ES is traded you can probably find publicly.

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  #250 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
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Rayzor View Post
If it's a statement you want so I can earn a badge that pays and means nothing I guess I will have to pass. All this talk of proving yourself to complete strangers that you are profitable is ridiculous. If anyone that needs proof of my profitability I will be more than happy to provide it when you start paying my bills or even cutting my grass. Trading is a solo sport and I have no need to prove anything to anyone. I have plenty of local trader friends that are far more profitable than me and knowing this has not made me a better trader; I make me a better trader. This "proof argument" is the equivilent of a stranger peering over the mensroom wall while you are using the toilet. Go ahead peanut gallery, lemme' have it.

Rayzor, you are free to post or not to post whatever you want. Anything anyone posts on a blog is voluntary. I was responding to a point someone had made that the title "Market Wizard" should be reserved for people who have actually made money trading.

As for trading being a solo sport, at the top levels today (high frequency trading and hedge funds) and historically (futures pits and hedge funds) that is not true. I guess futures pits, which is where I come from, are technically solo but solo within a large group of traders, some of whom are obviously extremely profitable. High frequency trading is a group activity, with programmers, quants, traders, and IT professionals all playing a part.

I never would have gotten into the futures business if I hadn't known for certain that it was possible to make a lot of money doing it. I had plenty of career choices open to me. That's why I am sympathetic to all those "loners" out there who have not yet made it and are looking for proof. I had my proof and it resulted in a very fortuitous career choice. It took me three years in the pits before I really "made it" and there is no way I would have stuck out that career choice in the prime of my life if I hadn't had many many examples of success both to show me that it is possible and how it is done.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #251 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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jstnbrg View Post

I never would have gotten into the futures business if I hadn't known for certain that it was possible to make a lot of money doing it. I had plenty of career choices open to me. That's why I am sympathetic to all those "loners" out there who have not yet made it and are looking for proof. I had my proof and it resulted in a very fortuitous career choice. It took me three years in the pits before I really "made it" and there is no way I would have stuck out that career choice in the prime of my life if I hadn't had many many examples of success both to show me that it is possible and how it is done.

I think for me this sums it up nicely. That is exactly the point, and the whole point is that showing your statement isn't 'for you'. And in my opinion you have a right to not do anything just like you have a right not to contribute.

For instance, there are a couple journal/trade threads that are throwing out numbers and saying, "I did this trade" and or "I am doing that trade etc.." without knowing if these people are legit or just like to bullshit themselves along with everyone else. Not that knowing would then make you say, "hell yah, I am in!" but maybe a "well, this guy seems to be consistent and truly profitable which is inspiring and maybe I can glean something here."

I realized we have had this conversation at least 5 times over the last several months. Obviously we should agree to disagree, but for me, trading can also be a spectator sport. If a trader put on a trade and made $1M from that trade, I would want to watch. Am I following that method, NOPE, do I intend to learn that method, NOPE, but it sure is fun to watch, much like any sport or performance that shows mastery.

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  #252 (permalink)
adaseb
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bobbyacim View Post
Here are 6 screen shots of a live trade I took this A.M. on the emini S&P around 7:30 EST , I usually try to avoid the S&P, but I saw a clear Hidden divergence between the price and BOTH indicators. There is a double bottom (see if you can spot it) and a lower low on the Stoch as well as a lower low on the CCI. This may have been a sign that a slightly larger SL may be in order.

.
Looked like a good trade:

1. Trend was up- but not too strong as evidenced by the top keltner channel was FLAT also notice a first lower low on price.
2. Stoch D & K turned up from the oversold area and ready to cross- in hindsight I should have waited for a solid cross from the K above the D
3. CCI curled up from the oversold area - maybe should have waited for CCI cross of zero line??
4. The ATR Stoploss appeared ONLY 2 ticks BELOW the Trigger bar; very low risk trade!!!!!!

ENTERED at 1330, keep an eye on the TP at 1332 until screen shot #6!

Took the buy, but not with my usual 5 tick arbitrary stop, NO; I used the A.T.R. stoploss indicator I recently added
Well, kept using the A.T.R stoploss, but I got stopped out anyway.
And, as you can see the price did reach 1332 and above. So if my stoploss was slightly larger, I could have walked with 2 points.

LESSON LEARNED: I have just increased the ATR settings from 1.5 to 1.7 on the emini S&P

Any/all critiques are welcomed on this trade...

1) I hope those $80 you lost wasn't real money. Next time trade demo/sim or if you insist trading with live money trade mini/micro lots of ES using CFDs. I know one broker is AVA where you can trade $0.125/$1.25 per tick. You will lose a whole lot less and remain in the game longer this way. Practising trading $50 per point is too expensive for a beginner unless you're a millionaire.

2) The 6E and ES are quite possibly one of the most brutal trading instruments especially if you are trying to earn a living day trading them. People tear each others to shreds in those markets. You get the most liquidity and lowest spreads but you get 2 instruments that rarely perform well on technicals alone. In my opinion Crude Oil and Silver are much much easier to trade.

3) I don't know anyone who trades solely based on divergence, cci, atr, etc. Use that maybe as a confirmation.

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  #253 (permalink)
 monpere 
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bluemele View Post
I think for me this sums it up nicely. That is exactly the point, and the whole point is that showing your statement isn't 'for you'. And in my opinion you have a right to not do anything just like you have a right not to contribute.

For instance, there are a couple journal/trade threads that are throwing out numbers and saying, "I did this trade" and or "I am doing that trade etc.." without knowing if these people are legit or just like to bullshit themselves along with everyone else. Not that knowing would then make you say, "hell yah, I am in!" but maybe a "well, this guy seems to be consistent and truly profitable which is inspiring and maybe I can glean something here."

I realized we have had this conversation at least 5 times over the last several months. Obviously we should agree to disagree, but for me, trading can also be a spectator sport. If a trader put on a trade and made $1M from that trade, I would want to watch. Am I following that method, NOPE, do I intend to learn that method, NOPE, but it sure is fun to watch, much like any sport or performance that shows mastery.

Here's a question, what would be the result if every member on futures.io (formerly BMT) just showed their broker statement, instead of sharing their method, or gave any advice? Just a string of threads with broker statements proving they or are or are not profitable. Wouldn't that be inspiration * 1000, but learning * 0.

Ok, let's make it more practical. What if, Bike Mike changed the rules of the forum and said only people who provide their statements can post? What would happen then? Do you think the amount of what you learn from futures.io (formerly BMT) would increase, decrease or remain the same? Do you think that proof would change the path of your trading career? Do you think 1000 profitable broker statements is going to motivate you enough to change your counter trend strategy with a 200 tick stop and 2 tick target to become profitable? I assume if proof is that important the answer to that question would be yes.

Well, I would suggest that, if we got 1000 profitable broker statements posted tomorrow, all the people asking for proof of profitability would be very satisfied and very inspired, but they would be exactly in the same place in their trading, they would just have tired eyes from reading 1000 broker statements.

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  #254 (permalink)
 Xeno 
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bobbyacim View Post
Because unless you are definitively successful and profitable in your trading, you stand on weak ground to JUDGE conclusively why I or any of the other 30,000 readers on the forum are still struggling.

Ah, is that the reason you ignore so much of the advice on this thread? And then back the ridiculous proposal to have your forum status linked to your profitability. I can imagine profitable traders running a mile from this site, because the result would be people continually badgering them to be 'taught' their system, and people obsessed with greed hanging off their every word.

6 years experience and you think learning a lesson is increasing your stop from 1.5 atr to 1.7 atr (this is two pages after deciding to stop looking for the holy grail)

Until you know why that absolutely is the wrong way to learn, I guarantee you 99% you will never be consistently profitable. But of course feel free to completely ignore me since I'm uninterested in some macho, hero elevating, stamp of approval from my profit statements.

Truth is truth, and rubbish is rubbish, whoever writes it, and I don't need a piece of paper to be able to argue the point properly.

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  #255 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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adaseb View Post
1) I hope those $80 you lost wasn't real money. Next time trade demo/sim or if you insist trading with live money trade mini/micro lots of ES using CFDs. I know one broker is AVA where you can trade $0.125/$1.25 per tick. You will lose a whole lot less and remain in the game longer this way. Practising trading $50 per point is too expensive for a beginner unless you're a millionaire.

2) The 6E and ES are quite possibly one of the most brutal trading instruments especially if you are trying to earn a living day trading them. People tear each others to shreds in those markets. You get the most liquidity and lowest spreads but you get 2 instruments that rarely perform well on technicals alone. In my opinion Crude Oil and Silver are much much easier to trade.

3) I don't know anyone who trades solely based on divergence, cci, atr, etc. Use that maybe as a confirmation.

Thanks for the input. I have 5 years at this and over 5000 hours. Thats why I've been trading at 12.50 per tick.
I was trading 3 contracts, until after 15 trades, I incurred a string of losses. so after 21 trades I am down 2K.

FYI, Traders international award winning setup is pure divergence
Roger Felton is divergence
several other big name courses also teach it.

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  #256 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
Here's a question, what would be the result if every member on futures.io (formerly BMT) just showed their broker statement, instead of sharing their method, or gave any advice? Just a string of threads with broker statements proving they or are or are not profitable. Wouldn't that be inspiration * 1000, but learning * 0.

Ok, let's make it more practical. What if, Bike Mike changed the rules of the forum and said only people who provide their statements can post? What would happen then? Do you think the amount of what you learn from futures.io (formerly BMT) would increase, decrease or remain the same? Do you think that proof would change the path of your trading career? Do you think 1000 profitable broker statements is going to motivate you enough to change your counter trend strategy with a 200 tick stop and 2 tick target to become profitable? I assume if proof is that important the answer to that question would be yes.

Well, I would suggest that, if we got 1000 profitable broker statements posted tomorrow, all the people asking for proof of profitability would be very satisfied and very inspired, but they would be exactly in the same place in their trading, they would just have tired eyes from reading 1000 broker statements.

Put in the most simplest of terms; I feel a lot more comfortable taking advice about money and life from someone who has proven his reasoning in live situations. I.E.
If he's flying the plane I'm on, I'd like to know he has actual air time.
If he is giving me financial advice, he has actually made someone money with it.
If he is pulling my wisdom tooth, he has done it live.
It he's operating on me, he has actually operated on live bodies and NOT JUST ON A CADAVOR!

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  #257 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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Xeno View Post
Ah, is that the reason you ignore so much of the advice on this thread? And then back the ridiculous proposal to have your forum status linked to your profitability. I can imagine profitable traders running a mile from this site, because the result would be people continually badgering them to be 'taught' their system, and people obsessed with greed hanging off their every word.

6 years experience and you think learning a lesson is increasing your stop from 1.5 atr to 1.7 atr (this is two pages after deciding to stop looking for the holy grail)

Until you know why that absolutely is the wrong way to learn, I guarantee you 99% you will never be consistently profitable. But of course feel free to completely ignore me since I'm uninterested in some macho, hero elevating, stamp of approval from my profit statements.

Truth is truth, and rubbish is rubbish, whoever writes it, and I don't need a piece of paper to be able to argue the point properly.

Dear Xeno,

Could you share with us, what you consider a better derived Stoploss than basing it on the prior candles Average true range. Maybe, even what has worked for you my dear friend.

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  #258 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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bobbyacim View Post
Dear Xeno,

Could you share with us, what you consider a better derived Stoploss than basing it on the prior candles Average true range. Maybe, even what has worked for you my dear friend.

I'm not Xeno, but I already told you what I believe is the best way to do it. Based on what price is doing. I call it price action. I suggest you read everything here, probably several times, so it sinks in:



Watch the videos. Read all the shared charts and mark up. Then participate with your own charts and questions, and people will help you.

Mike

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  #259 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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Xeno View Post
Ah, is that the reason you ignore so much of the advice on this thread? And then back the ridiculous proposal to have your forum status linked to your profitability. I can imagine profitable traders running a mile from this site, because the result would be people continually badgering them to be 'taught' their system, and people obsessed with greed hanging off their every word.

6 years experience and you think learning a lesson is increasing your stop from 1.5 atr to 1.7 atr (this is two pages after deciding to stop looking for the holy grail)

Until you know why that absolutely is the wrong way to learn, I guarantee you 99% you will never be consistently profitable. But of course feel free to completely ignore me since I'm uninterested in some macho, hero elevating, stamp of approval from my profit statements.

Truth is truth, and rubbish is rubbish, whoever writes it, and I don't need a piece of paper to be able to argue the point properly.

I see you oversimplyfy when it fits your needs. Yes increasing my stoploss was a very valuble lession for me the other day, only becouse that aspect of the trade alone, cost me the trade!!

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  #260 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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bobbyacim View Post
Put in the most simplest of terms; I feel a lot more comfortable taking advice about money and life from someone who has proven his reasoning in live situations. I.E.
If he's flying the plane I'm on, I'd like to know he has actual air time.
If he is giving me financial advice, he has actually made someone money with it.
If he is pulling my wisdom tooth, he has done it live.
It he's operating on me, he has actually operated on live bodies and NOT JUST ON A CADAVOR!

Well given that you are still not profitable after 6 years and $10k, then every person you learned from, and every advice you have ever gotten must have been from un-profitable traders. Someone, just posted their broker statement on another thread which you referred to here. So, you finally got your proof. Why are you not closing this thread, and go learn from that guy, and him alone, since he is the only one who has shown you a statement. Everything else from anyone else on this site is rubbish. Am I way of base, or am I looking at things too logically.

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  #261 (permalink)
 forrestang 
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I personally don't believe much of anything from someone I read online. That's not to say I don't look @ other people's ideas myself, because I do. Not trying to be accusatory or anything, it's just the realization I had come to a while back.

But with regards to who does what, and who is who, psssssh. The trading community is full of cliches, blind leading the blind etc.

Real-time trading talk, never happens. Anyone can mark up a dead chart.

There was a huuuuuge thread a while back over on TL, called "Trading in Real-Time," where a guy literally posted hundreds of trades on the right edge, prior to the trade being triggered, and discussed why and what he was seeing. That was something refreshing to see for once in the online trading community.

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  #262 (permalink)
 Xeno 
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bobbyacim View Post
Dear Xeno,

Could you share with us, what you consider a better derived Stoploss than basing it on the prior candles Average true range. Maybe, even what has worked for you my dear friend.

With pleasure. With this question, you've summed up the crux of what I'm saying. You think I'm having a go at ATR stop losses, as maybe being too simple or something. Far from it. I think ATR based stoplosses are an excellent type of stop loss, along with prior candles, fixed risk, support/resistance, price action etc. But they are always part of the overall system.

But that is not the point at all. The point is why you think increasing your stop loss to 1.7atr from 1.5atr will improve your profitability, based on observing a few trades that it would work on. I'll tell you what it will do. It will arbitrarily increase your percentage win. It will arbitrarily increase your average loss. It may increase or decrease your profitability. In all likelihood it will change a loss making strategy into another loss making strategy.

Now, if you'd said you had tested your overall already promising strategy over hundreds of trades and were fine tuning the stop loss, and had plotted a graph of average profit per trade against stop, and 1.7atr was surrounded by other data points like 1.5atr 1.6atr and 1.8atr, which were all promising, but 1.7 looked the best. And then you'd calculated your max drawdown, put it into a risk formula, calculated your necessary capital requirement, and were happy with that amount. I'd have said you were well on the path to being profitable.

Do you see the difference? You don't have to be a automated backtester, but you do have to have some idea how to evaluate and test your strategies over and above trying a few trades and seeing what could have worked better.

I also think you are far too emotional and excited about this. You actually said something like imagine being able to just create money for yourself anywhere in the world. I'm afraid that is just the attitude that people are talking about on this thread. I don't mean this in an unkind way, but it sounds like greed or gambling. If you really want to listen to the top traders, do so, and they'll mostly all tell you you'll fail with that attitude. You need hard work, rational learning, calm emotion, and to stop trying to buy or borrow someone else's system.

Your analogies are wrong. There is pretty much a textbook way to fly a plane. If you're sitting on a plane, you don't need to know it, and if you're learning, of course it makes sense to listen to people who have done it. (However, there are psychologists who can't fly who have plenty of important advice to give to pilots. You wouldn't be listening to them though...)

Trading profitably is not a textbook persuit. I hope it's obvious why.

You know, I think a lot of people on this thread genuinely would like to see you work this out. You're kind of symbolic on this site now.

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  #263 (permalink)
 monpere 
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Xeno View Post
With pleasure. With this question, you've summed up the crux of what I'm saying. You think I'm having a go at ATR stop losses, as maybe being to simple or something. Far from it. I think ATR based stoplosses are an excellent type of stop loss, along with prior candles, fixed risk, support/resistance, price action etc. But they are always part of the overall system.

But that is not the point at all. The point is why you think increasing your stop loss to 1.7atr from 1.5atr will improve your profitability, based on observing a few trades that it would work on. I'll tell you what it will do. It will arbitrarily increase your percentage win. It will arbitrarily increase your average loss. It may increase or decrease your profitability. In all likelihood it will change a loss making strategy into another loss making strategy.

Now, if you'd said you had tested your overall already promising strategy over hundreds of trades and were fine tuning the stop loss, and had plotted a graph of average profit per trade against stop, and 1.7atr was surrounded by other data points like 1.5atr 1.6atr and 1.8atr, which were all promising, but 1.7 looked the best. And then you'd calculated your max drawdown, put it into a risk formula, calculated your necessary capital requirement, and were happy with that amount. I'd have said you were well on the path to being profitable.

Do you see the difference? You don't have to be a automated backtester, but you do have to have some idea how to evaluate and test your strategies over and above trying a few trades and seeing what could have worked better.

I also think you are far to emotional and excited about this. You actually said something like imagine being able to just create money for yourself anywhere in the world. I'm afraid that is just the attitude that people are talking about on this thread. I don't mean this in an unkind way, but it sounds like greed or gambling. If you really want to listen to the top traders, do so, and they'll mostly all tell you you'll fail with that attitude. You need hard work, rational learning, calm emotion, and to stop trying to buy or borrow someone else's system.

You analogies are wrong. There is pretty much a textbook way to fly a plane. If you're sitting on a plane, you don't need to know it, and if you're learning, of course it makes sense to listen to people who have done it. (However, there are psychologists who can't fly who have plenty of important advice to give to pilots. You wouldn't be listening to them though...)

Trading profitably is not a textbook persuit. I hope it's obvious why.

You know, I think a lot of people on this thread genuinely would like to see you work this out. You're kind of symbolic on this site now.

That's great advice... but it's rubbish, since I haven't seen your brokerage statements

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  #264 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Bobby's homework:
  • Stop trading cash.
  • Create a public journal on futures.io (formerly BMT) and post to it at least daily. At the end of each week, go back and read the prior two weeks of journal entries and ask yourself if you are moving forward, or if you are going in circles.
  • Spend the next few months creating and testing your own methodology.
  • The method is created by you. You come up with it. Others can influence you, but you do not copy others.
  • After you have a hundred or more trades taken in sim and have analyzed the data every way you know how, and it has positive expectancy, then you can go back to cash.
  • When ready to go back cash, open a mini or micro forex account and trade at maximum $1/pip size until you have another 100 trades to analyze in cash mode.
  • Analyze those, and compare them to your sim trades.
  • Identify differences and come up with detailed plans to account for and minimize the differences going forward.
  • If your 100 trades at $1/pip were net profitable, you can increase to $2/pip for the next 100 trades.

Mike

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  #265 (permalink)
 Xeno 
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Big Mike View Post
Bobby's homework:
  • Stop trading cash.
  • Create a public journal on futures.io (formerly BMT) and post to it at least daily. At the end of each week, go back and read the prior two weeks of journal entries and ask yourself if you are moving forward, or if you are going in circles.
  • Spend the next few months creating and testing your own methodology.
  • The method is created by you. You come up with it. Others can influence you, but you do not copy others.
  • After you have a hundred or more trades taken in sim and have analyzed the data every way you know how, and it has positive expectancy, then you can go back to cash.
  • When ready to go back cash, open a mini or micro forex account and trade at maximum $1/pip size until you have another 100 trades to analyze in cash mode.
  • Analyze those, and compare them to your sim trades.
  • Identify differences and come up with detailed plans to account for and minimize the differences going forward.
  • If your 100 trades at $1/pip were net profitable, you can increase to $2/pip for the next 100 trades.

Mike

Excellent advice Mike. Only thing I'd add, at step 2, is "Learn exactly what positive expectancy means and why it's so important" ;-) ;-)

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  #266 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
Well given that you are still not profitable after 6 years and $10k, then every person you learned from, and every advice you have ever gotten must have been from un-profitable traders. Someone, just posted their broker statement on another thread which you referred to here. So, you finally got your proof. Why are you not closing this thread, and go learn from that guy, and him alone, since he is the only one who has shown you a statement. Everything else from anyone else on this site is rubbish. Am I way of base, or am I looking at things too logically.

NICE.....

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 bobbyacim 
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Xeno View Post
With pleasure. With this question, you've summed up the crux of what I'm saying. You think I'm having a go at ATR stop losses, as maybe being too simple or something. Far from it. I think ATR based stoplosses are an excellent type of stop loss, along with prior candles, fixed risk, support/resistance, price action etc. But they are always part of the overall system.

But that is not the point at all. The point is why you think increasing your stop loss to 1.7atr from 1.5atr will improve your profitability, based on observing a few trades that it would work on. I'll tell you what it will do. It will arbitrarily increase your percentage win. It will arbitrarily increase your average loss. It may increase or decrease your profitability. In all likelihood it will change a loss making strategy into another loss making strategy.

Now, if you'd said you had tested your overall already promising strategy over hundreds of trades and were fine tuning the stop loss, and had plotted a graph of average profit per trade against stop, and 1.7atr was surrounded by other data points like 1.5atr 1.6atr and 1.8atr, which were all promising, but 1.7 looked the best. And then you'd calculated your max drawdown, put it into a risk formula, calculated your necessary capital requirement, and were happy with that amount. I'd have said you were well on the path to being profitable.

Do you see the difference? You don't have to be a automated backtester, but you do have to have some idea how to evaluate and test your strategies over and above trying a few trades and seeing what could have worked better.

I also think you are far too emotional and excited about this. You actually said something like imagine being able to just create money for yourself anywhere in the world. I'm afraid that is just the attitude that people are talking about on this thread. I don't mean this in an unkind way, but it sounds like greed or gambling. If you really want to listen to the top traders, do so, and they'll mostly all tell you you'll fail with that attitude. You need hard work, rational learning, calm emotion, and to stop trying to buy or borrow someone else's system.

Your analogies are wrong. There is pretty much a textbook way to fly a plane. If you're sitting on a plane, you don't need to know it, and if you're learning, of course it makes sense to listen to people who have done it. (However, there are psychologists who can't fly who have plenty of important advice to give to pilots. You wouldn't be listening to them though...)

Trading profitably is not a textbook persuit. I hope it's obvious why.

You know, I think a lot of people on this thread genuinely would like to see you work this out. You're kind of symbolic on this site now.

Nice post, THANK YOU!, Yea, I know; I've become kinda the symbol of the struggling trader(like a poster child...LOL)

I am in harmony with most of what your saying, only thing I can not wrap myself around is the statement " there are psychologists who can't fly who have plenty of important advice to give to pilots"
YES, JUST DON"T GIVE THE PILOT ADVICE ON FLYING!!!

But overall, very sound, healthy advice. I appreciate the NUGGETS of wisdom Xeno.

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 bluemele 
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monpere View Post
Here's a question, what would be the result if every member on futures.io (formerly BMT) just showed their broker statement, instead of sharing their method, or gave any advice? Just a string of threads with broker statements proving they or are or are not profitable. Wouldn't that be inspiration * 1000, but learning * 0.

Ok, let's make it more practical. What if, Bike Mike changed the rules of the forum and said only people who provide their statements can post? What would happen then? Do you think the amount of what you learn from futures.io (formerly BMT) would increase, decrease or remain the same? Do you think that proof would change the path of your trading career? Do you think 1000 profitable broker statements is going to motivate you enough to change your counter trend strategy with a 200 tick stop and 2 tick target to become profitable? I assume if proof is that important the answer to that question would be yes.

Well, I would suggest that, if we got 1000 profitable broker statements posted tomorrow, all the people asking for proof of profitability would be very satisfied and very inspired, but they would be exactly in the same place in their trading, they would just have tired eyes from reading 1000 broker statements.

Haha... I disagree. I do believe in surrounding yourself with those you choose to emulate. I think that is why traders reach out wishing to be a part of a community etc..

We had this discussion with a few others. I don't want to re-hash it all again, and I think when you take examples to the extreme then it isn't a valid argument.

My brain perks up when I know someone is profitable and when EF HUTTON talks, I listen. When jo blow trader talks, I don't listen. My own fault... I am to blame for that.

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 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
That's great advice... but it's rubbish, since I haven't seen your brokerage statements

Now, Now. Monpere and Bluemele,

Slowly I am starting to come around, hey I might even take the leap of faith someday and get on a plane knowing FULL well that the pilot has only SIM time under his belt, would you care to join me?

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 Xeno 
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bobbyacim View Post
I am in harmony with most of what your saying, only thing I can not wrap myself around is the statement " there are psychologists who can't fly who have plenty of important advice to give to pilots"
YES, JUST DON"T GIVE THE PILOT ADVICE ON FLYING!!!

There's no reason why they would, because flying is a textbook discipline. Trading isn't.

Trading is initiating the buys and sells. Anyone can do that and most lose. The wider topic known as trading may include maths, stats, psychology, business skills, analysis etc.

If you want help with calculating a sharpe ratio, better ask a finance professor who has never traded than a trader who has never done it. But what you really mean, is you want advice about actual successful trading itself, which is the thing everyone is telling you to forget about.

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  #271 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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Xeno View Post
There's no reason why they would, because flying is a textbook discipline. Trading isn't.

Trading is initiating the buys and sells. Anyone can do that and most lose. The wider topic known as trading may include maths, stats, psychology, business skills, analysis etc.

If you want help with calculating a sharpe ratio, better ask a finance professor who has never traded than a trader who has never done it. But what you really mean, is you want advice about actual successful trading itself, which is the thing everyone is telling you to forget about.

And if they did, I'm sure the pilots might say something thats not very polite.
However with trading live money, you prefer I toss caution to the wind and integrate whatever any Joe-blow trader says to my repertoire of trading knowledge, how dandy......

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 bobbyacim 
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I agree with several reasonable people here that it might give credibility to some serious advice despensed if there was a bench-mark catagory for someone who is actually profitable at this game, hey some of us are starting to ask this of vendors. Why not of supposed succesful traders who are dispensing tactical advice on trading.

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 Xeno 
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bobbyacim View Post
And if they did, I'm sure the pilots might say something thats not very polite.
However with trading live money, you prefer I toss caution to the wind and integrate whatever any Joe-blow trader says to my repertoire of trading knowledge, how dandy......

No!! I'm telling you to educate yourself - you know, from books, articles, the web etc and get to the stage where you can decide for yourself what is decent advice and what isn't. You can decide whether to ignore that, and only really value advice from proven traders, when trading with your live money, but tell me, who's ten thousand down in this process already? I assume a good chunk of that money was paid to 'proven' traders...

My education cost me my time and effort, and about 350 in literature. All that time I had no problem working out what was good and bad advice on web forums. Let's face it, most good advice about trading is already online, and has extensive threads backing it up. As Mike said, put the time in and read some of those threads. I didn't even need to read to not buy systems. It's common sense!! You want to hear it all from proven traders?? Buy Market Wizards. It's all in there. Apart from the holy grail system.

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  #274 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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bobbyacim View Post
And if they did, I'm sure the pilots might say something thats not very polite.
However with trading live money, you prefer I toss caution to the wind and integrate whatever any Joe-blow trader says to my repertoire of trading knowledge, how dandy......

WRONG AGAIN! If what Joe Blow says seems sound and resonates with you then, YOU take it, and YOU backtest it, and YOU prove it to YOURSELF, before YOU put a DIME behind it !!!

YOU do the same if that advice comes from Borsellino himself !!!

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  #275 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
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Xeno View Post
No!! I'm telling you to educate yourself - you know, from books, articles, the web etc and get to the stage where you can decide for yourself what is decent advice and what isn't. You can decide whether to ignore that, and only really value advice from proven traders, when trading with your live money, but tell me, who's ten thousand down in this process already? I assume a good chunk of that money was paid to 'proven' traders...

My education cost me my time and effort, and about 350 in literature. All that time I had no problem working out what was good and bad advice on web forums. Let's face it, most good advice about trading is already online, and has extensive threads backing it up. As Mike said, put the time in and read some of those threads. I didn't even need to read to not buy systems. It's common sense!! You want to hear it all from proven traders?? Buy Market Wizards. It's all in there. Apart from the holy grail system.

Hey, XENO, I ALMOST got duped by another vendor on this very site. (would have been another 4 k course)
However, trading maturity is setting in. Thanks buddy!

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 bluemele 
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Anybody that has been around a while also will share with you that what worked 6 months ago, or even 2 years ago, doesn't still work. That is especially true of mechanical system whether it be a structural change @ CME or just a cyclical change.

A lot will disagree, but the key is to be a profitable trader for the long term. Some will say, a forward test is the only way to go, etc.. Yah, until it proves it isn't viable. You can spend the rest of your life doing that!

That is why of course probabilities makes sense, but you have to build it yourself because WHEN (not if) conditions change, then you will no how to adapt and overcome!

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 bobbyacim 
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bluemele View Post
Anybody that has been around a while also will share with you that what worked 6 months ago, or even 2 years ago, doesn't still work. That is especially true of mechanical system whether it be a structural change @ CME or just a cyclical change.

A lot will disagree, but the key is to be a profitable trader for the long term. Some will say, a forward test is the only way to go, etc.. Yah, until it proves it isn't viable. You can spend the rest of your life doing that!

That is why of course probabilities makes sense, but you have to build it yourself because WHEN (not if) conditions change, then you will no how to adapt and overcome!

I'm hearing you, so with that said, its possible that once upon a time, systems that these vendors are pushing, may have honestly worked? its just that the market structure has changed?

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 bobbyacim 
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Xeno View Post
There's no reason why they would, because flying is a textbook discipline. Trading isn't.

Trading is initiating the buys and sells. Anyone can do that and most lose. The wider topic known as trading may include maths, stats, psychology, business skills, analysis etc.

If you want help with calculating a sharpe ratio, better ask a finance professor who has never traded than a trader who has never done it. But what you really mean, is you want advice about actual successful trading itself, which is the thing everyone is telling you to forget about.

Exactly! and it stands to reason, anyone exhibiting(not just talking like one) succesful trading would be a successful trader.

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 eudamonia 
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Except for a very few ultra simple mechanical systems nearly every mechanical system will need to be reoptimized intelligently (i.e. OOS walk forward process) periodically. How often, how much, and what fitness function you should be using is the art of mechanical trading (yes there is art in mechanical trading). The problem with most (but not all) vendors selling a mechanical system is that they don't teach you the hard part (the occasional re-optimization). And if you know how to reoptimize a system intelligently you are already sophisticated enough to design your own system - better. I will reiterate what Mike has said on these forums. Strictly mechanical trading is far far harder than discretionary trading and you still need to know how to trade discretionarily! That being said if you can't consistently recreate and analyse your discretionary setups you have no chance is gaining an edge in the market.

One interesting experience I had early in my trading career was watching (live) a successful discretionary trader consistently beat the EUR/USD over a two month period. Interestingly enough even though this trader explained to me his reasoning for each trade I did not have the sophistication to implement it myself. This reminded me of the experience of watching many John Petruci videos (a famous and brilliant guitarist) when I was younger. Watching the videos was fun but ultimately didn't make me a better guitarist/bassist. What did? Thousands of hours of practice.

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 Surly 
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There is some great advice on this thread! Unfortunately I don't think it will be taken advantage of by Bobby or any of the other struggling traders reading this thread. The reason is that the advice given actually requires that the recipient of the advice do lots of WORK. The problem (at least IMHO) is that those being given the advice give the impression that they simply want to be told how to trade rather than figure out how to trade for themselves. The gap between these two approaches is one you could drive the entire CME through.

In general people will not take advice that is not the advice they want to hear - unsuccessful traders are often (not always mind you) attracted to trading because of the easy profits that it seems to promise - that is their fantasy. If you take away this fantasy, it looks a whole lot more like a real job and thus many would rather maintain their fantasy rather than face reality and get to work.

Ed Seykota was asked by Jack Schwager how a losing trader could turn themselves into a winning trader. Ed replied A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That's the kind of thing winning traders do.

I can't think of a quote in the english language that seems more relevant to this thread. If you want to succeed at trading then STOP READING THIS THREAD and get back to your screen and start collecting statistics on a consistent, disciplined trading approach. I, at least, believe you'll learn more from that exercise than anything you could learn from anyone on this forum. If you can't do that, you have no hope of overcoming the barriers on the way to successful trading.

surly

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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Big Mike View Post
Bobby's homework:
  • Stop trading cash.
  • Create a public journal on futures.io (formerly BMT) and post to it at least daily. At the end of each week, go back and read the prior two weeks of journal entries and ask yourself if you are moving forward, or if you are going in circles.
  • Spend the next few months creating and testing your own methodology.
  • The method is created by you. You come up with it. Others can influence you, but you do not copy others.
  • After you have a hundred or more trades taken in sim and have analyzed the data every way you know how, and it has positive expectancy, then you can go back to cash.
  • When ready to go back cash, open a mini or micro forex account and trade at maximum $1/pip size until you have another 100 trades to analyze in cash mode.
  • Analyze those, and compare them to your sim trades.
  • Identify differences and come up with detailed plans to account for and minimize the differences going forward.
  • If your 100 trades at $1/pip were net profitable, you can increase to $2/pip for the next 100 trades.

Mike

Excellent advice. To make the task less daunting, you don't even have to start from scratch. The current method you are trading is hidden divergence, and it seems to resonate with you. Ok, start from there. You said someone told you it has a 79% win ratio, well we proved earlier that number (a part of expectancy) means nothing unless you derive it yourself specifically in your own method. So apply all that BigMike suggests, using this hidden divergence setup as your base, and develop an entry, stop, exit, and trade management systematic process around it. The composite of all these things together developed through the process BigMike suggests will become you own personal method. You will realize at the end of this process that you will have gotten further then you ever have before.

Here's an explanation of expectancy https://www.tradermike.net/2004/05/trading_101_expectancy/
Here's an Excel expectancy calculator

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 bobbyacim 
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monpere View Post
Excellent advice. To make the task less daunting, you don't even have to start from scratch. The current method you are trading is hidden divergence, and it seems to resonate with you. Ok, start from there. You said someone told you it has a 79% win ratio, well we proved earlier that number (a part of expectancy) means nothing unless you derive it yourself specifically in your own method. So apply all that BigMike suggests, using this hidden divergence setup as your base, and develop an entry, stop, exit, and trade management systematic process around it. The composite of all these things together developed through the process BigMike suggests will become you own personal method. You will realize at the end of this process that you will have gotten further then you ever have before.

Here's an explanation of expectancy Trading 101: Expectancy ? TraderMike.net
Here's an Excel expectancy calculator

Monpere,

Sometimes we all assume someone knows far less than he really does, and sometimes we assume he knows more than he really does. Guess its just human nature.
Thanks. I do know about positve expectancy for some time. Thats how I was able to weed out a lot of those systems I looked at.
Hey the expectancy on the trade I posted was 2 ticks risk, 8 ticks reward(1/4) I calc'ed it BEFORE taking the trade, including commish.

Really nice feedback in the last 1/2 dozen posts!

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 Jeff Castille 
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Let's see........one year of tuition at Harvard $37,000.00...........Bobby's investment in trading education $10,000.00......so you've gone to trading school the equivilent of 1/4 year......not including room and board books health insurance fees etc. So....realistically.....how much money do you expect to make with the equivilent 1/4 year of trading college under your belt?

Jeff

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 bluemele 
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Surly View Post

I can't think of a quote in the english language that seems more relevant to this thread. If you want to succeed at trading then STOP READING THIS THREAD and get back to your screen and start collecting statistics on a consistent, disciplined trading approach. I, at least, believe you'll learn more from that exercise than anything you could learn from anyone on this forum. If you can't do that, you have no hope of overcoming the barriers on the way to successful trading.

surly

A great many would disagree with your post. They feel it is more about letting go then it is about 'gaining knowledge'.

I don't know which is 'right' and don't believe there to be the 'right' way. Screen time is definitely needed, but like you hinted at. The 'force' is in each of us, will we ever tap it? Good question.

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 bluemele 
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monpere View Post
Excellent advice. To make the task less daunting, you don't even have to start from scratch. The current method you are trading is hidden divergence, and it seems to resonate with you. Ok, start from there. You said someone told you it has a 79% win ratio, well we proved earlier that number (a part of expectancy) means nothing unless you derive it yourself specifically in your own method. So apply all that BigMike suggests, using this hidden divergence setup as your base, and develop an entry, stop, exit, and trade management systematic process around it. The composite of all these things together developed through the process BigMike suggests will become you own personal method. You will realize at the end of this process that you will have gotten further then you ever have before.

Here's an explanation of expectancy Trading 101: Expectancy ? TraderMike.net
Here's an Excel expectancy calculator

@monpere do you know a good post on hidden divergence? I know I have seen it, but figured you would know the best or most 'real'.

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 monpere 
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bobbyacim View Post
Monpere,

Sometimes we all assume someone knows far less than he really does, and sometimes we assume he knows more than he really does. Guess its just human nature.
Thanks. I do know about positve expectancy for some time. Thats how I was able to weed out a lot of those systems I looked at.
Hey the expectancy on the trade I posted was 2 ticks risk, 8 ticks reward(1/4) I calc'ed it BEFORE taking the trade, including commish.

Really nice feedback in the last 1/2 dozen posts!

What you described is the reward/risk ratio for the trade. It is calculated on a trade by trade basis. Expectancy is calculated on the entire method based on a large sample of trades. That's why i requires some work on your part. Have to go through many trades (historically, or forward in real time) to get the numbers. Take a quick look at the links.

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 Cloudy 
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bobbyacim View Post
Now, Now. Monpere and Bluemele,

Slowly I am starting to come around, hey I might even take the leap of faith someday and get on a plane knowing FULL well that the pilot has only SIM time under his belt, would you care to join me?

Haha, funny that you mentioned this. Sure I would join, if i could be the pilot! I'm a MS flightsim nut and have played about 2500+ hrs on the various MSFS versions since the 90's. I recall a news story where they let a MS simmer fly a traffic pattern in a Cessna all by himself (with a pilot copilot monitoring of course, and journalist) and he did fine! a little hard landing but it was ok. In some way jetliners may be easier to fly with their FMC (flight management computer) and mostly autopilot controlled flightpaths. Other much more involved nuts at www.avsim.com and of course lots of videos and such of MSFS on youtube with searching.. And I'm sure there must be a few of you who are also MSFS nuts on here.

At first when there wasn't as much info on the net, I wouldn't know how to land at all. Then I read real pilot's tutorials for sim pilots , i.e. a whole navigation course and practiced vor , adf, circular vor landings, ils etc. Then on to dual-props then my favorite the heavys. In some ways, 747 is easier to "program"/fly than Airbus 320's , MD-11 and the CRJs/ERJs. Real 737 pilot who got 747 certified a couple of years ago has had his company make realistic looking simulations of the 747 and MD11. PMDG Simulations
they have been working on a new version of the 737 NG already for 3+ years! (update: omigosh, I just saw it, they plan to release their 737/700-900 for FSX in a week! after so many years of saying it's coming soon.. yay! 737-700/800 is my favorite on old pmdg NG for FS9 "Soon" defined.... - The AVSIM Forums)

That said, nope, it has not helped my trading any. If I do everything by the book simulated with correct procedures and specific aircraft procedures (which can take upwards of an hour to simulate), then my crash % is pretty much 0%. If I'm goofing off and skipping and cutting corners , (like not going around when bad approach) my crash % could be 2%. At highest "realistic" difficulty settings on FSX. It's a different discipline and a lot more structured and "safe" than trading. Even with abrupt weather changes, planes can adjust altitude or flightplan, help from traffic and approach/waypoint controllers etc. Probably the most important skills for a real pilot are dealing with emergencies which they have to get re-tested and certified on a plane type like every six-twelve months on real airliner physical cockpit simulators. On a normal routine, an airliner pilot would be worried about busting an altitude on approach and incurring a hefty fine. Please forgive the unrelated screenshots. Mostly for Bobbyaicm or anyone interested.

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 monpere 
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bluemele View Post
@ monpere do you know a good post on hidden divergence? I know I have seen it, but figured you would know the best or most 'real'.

Don't recall seeing any here. What I know about hidden divergence I learned from Felton, but as I said, I never was comfortable with the concept and the market phenomenon behind it, so I never tested it and never traded it. I trade basic divergence, I view the concept as the indicator showing that the momentum is decreasing, so the indicator starts decelerating faster then price and ultimately price follows it. But hidden divergence always seemed counter intuitive to me, because i.e. in an uptrend the indicator starts accelerating down in order to indicate a continuation up. I could never wrap my brain around that. It's totally the reverse of the previous idea. I'm sure the concept might work fine, but it never resonated with me as much as straight basic divergence. I don't believe anyone can trade a concept they don't fully understand or are not comfortable with, they will never have confidence in it.

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 Xeno 
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bobbyacim View Post
Hey the expectancy on the trade I posted was 2 ticks risk, 8 ticks reward(1/4) I calc'ed it BEFORE taking the trade, including commish.

Too funny. We just knew you didn't know what expectancy was ;-)

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 Lornz 
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I feel posting in this thread is a masochistic exercise, as I doubt you want to do the work required to be a successful trader. I think most profitable traders on this board, myself included, has spent countless hours researching the markets statistically and trying to conceptualize an approach to become profitable.

The markets are a lot like message boards; There is a lot of noise and it takes a while to figure out who/what to ignore, and what that actually is of importance. This can be strenuous and tedious work, thus most give up along the way. It seems you have spent a lot of time and effort, but you have exclusively been searching for a method to copy. Alas, vendors selling systems, do not have anything to sell... You are far better off taking some math/statistics classes at your local university...

As it seems that you do not possess the motivation to do self-directed analysis, maybe you should consider approaching a reputable prop firm? There you might get some direction, and you will also meet profitable traders, for which you so desperately yearn.

Good luck, I am unsubscribing now.

EDIT: I apologize if I came across a bit harsh, but you have been offered some decent in this thread. Yet you seem to neglect it and instead continue your search for a system to copy, while demanding broker statements from people offering help. That is not the way to achieve profitability. You might want reconsider your trading venture, but at least do not trade with real money until you have a rational approach. Expect to spend months on research and studying, do not waste your trading account on systems with negative expectancy....

Ok, now I'm out of here...

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 bobbyacim 
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Although I no longer post on this thread, I just happen to scan it and saw several entries.
I need to tell you that there is indeed hope. I am currently profitable!!!!!

All due to a gentleman on this web site who has a lenghy thread where he GIVES away a profitable system and actually setup a FREE trading room for us to watch him trade this amazing system make money.

Please look up cjbooth.



God bless you and YES, hope lives, his name is cjbooth!!

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 bobbyacim 
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Hi everyone,

I would like to share my C-P-B method (the initials in the method is to honor the giants whom I stand on their shoulders and me, Bobby..LOL) starting in the next 3 weeks if I can achieve the following:

Be consistantly profitable with it so that I can Post my live account trades directly from the broker statement(proof) on a new thread that I will start.

In the mean time, please mirror the same efforts and reference the works of the following two great traders I did in order to get to this point in my trading skill set refinement. So that when I share with you the method, you will hit the ground profitably from the start.

1. Read Charles manual at least twice; print it out and make annotations where something is not clear so you can reference it later.

2. Watch all the videos on his personal web site at least twice.

CJbooth has real power because remember, he is the only one who has ever claimed to be CONSISTANTLY profitable at daytrading, and allows you to see it right before your eyes!!!!


3. Read PerryG entire thread(there are two now, before is webineer and a new one after)

4. Watch his webineer at least twice, and don't hesitate to freeze and replay any area you not understand.

5 Finally, look and study my "C-P integration" post #1113 on Charles tread.

This is exactly what I did to get up to speed and in order to create this hybrid system I call the C-P-B method.

God willing, I will achieve my goals in a few weeks, after this, I will fully interact with you about where we are today...

Good Luck
Bobby

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 bobbyacim 
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Surly View Post
There is some great advice on this thread! Unfortunately I don't think it will be taken advantage of by Bobby or any of the other struggling traders reading this thread. The reason is that the advice given actually requires that the recipient of the advice do lots of WORK. The problem (at least IMHO) is that those being given the advice give the impression that they simply want to be told how to trade rather than figure out how to trade for themselves. The gap between these two approaches is one you could drive the entire CME through.

In general people will not take advice that is not the advice they want to hear - unsuccessful traders are often (not always mind you) attracted to trading because of the easy profits that it seems to promise - that is their fantasy. If you take away this fantasy, it looks a whole lot more like a real job and thus many would rather maintain their fantasy rather than face reality and get to work.

Ed Seykota was asked by Jack Schwager how a losing trader could turn themselves into a winning trader. Ed replied “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That's the kind of thing winning traders do.”

I can't think of a quote in the english language that seems more relevant to this thread. If you want to succeed at trading then STOP READING THIS THREAD and get back to your screen and start collecting statistics on a consistent, disciplined trading approach. I, at least, believe you'll learn more from that exercise than anything you could learn from anyone on this forum. If you can't do that, you have no hope of overcoming the barriers on the way to successful trading.

surly

This "do the work" advice may not apply to me?
Cause, as you can see I am relentless at this, thats why in spite of everyone telling me to "hang it up" I will continue....

I already have over 6000 hours of screen time, lets go for an even 10,000, shall we....LOL

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 Braulio 
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Congratulations! Looking forward to your charts and learning the C-P-B method

P.S. - you mean the #1133 post, right?

B

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 zoom 
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Jeff Castille View Post
Felton Trading..........what is free to futures.io (formerly BMT) elite members?

Lifetime access to the live trading room......AND......the elite indicator downloads.....these include: Felton Cycle, Felton Momentum, Felton Trigger, Felton Bands, Felton Bar Counter, Felton Trend MA.

What is not free.........to anyone.......personal mentoring AND the indicator that identifies Roger's 5 set ups in realtime.

Clear?

And where can i find the indicators ??????????????????????

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  #296 (permalink)
 Daytrader999 
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@zoom:
Just go to the Search function, use 'Search for Attachments instead', then type Felton in the field 'Search by keyword(s), press enter, and there you go...

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 BeachTrader 
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Actually, Roger was banned at futures.io (formerly BMT) so his indicators and webinars have been removed.

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  #298 (permalink)
 zoom 
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but somebody will have the indicators and can shere it maybe with us :-)))

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 Big Mike 
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zoom View Post
but somebody will have the indicators and can shere it maybe with us :-)))

The answer was given just a couple of posts up...

Mike

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 Cloudy 
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Thought this was a good thread to re-read. lots of advice.

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