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TEN-THOUSAND IN EDUCATION, FINALLY PAYING OFF
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TEN-THOUSAND IN EDUCATION, FINALLY PAYING OFF

  #221 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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bobbyacim View Post
Yes, I see you your point buddy. I only have 2 setups, hidden divergence and my little 3 pin price action setup and i only take the H.D. when it is so clear that it screams out to me (ever since I lost 2 k trading it) and as you can see on the chart, this one was yelling!!!!

This one was my FAULT, for being chessy with my S.L. (perhaps fear)
I am keeping my intregrity, traded with 1 contract only.

Any critique on the setup itself??

In an objective approach, no matter how much a setup is yelling, it does not hold any more weight then any other occurrence of that setup. If my historically determined expectant win rate for that setup is 70%, that setup is considered to have a 70% chance to win, not 75, not 90, no matter how much it yells, no matter how gorgeous it is. It will be traded exactly like any other occurrence, same risk, same contract sizing, same trade management.

I could not really critique the setup itself since I don't trade it, never researched it, never backtested it, so, I don't know it intimately enough to critique. Now, if you were trading basic divergence, then I might have had a thought or two

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  #222 (permalink)
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bobbyacim View Post
NICE!!!

What ever happened to paying it back?
This "anticipated" move takes 10-20 years of chart time to discern.
the rest of us have to rely on something called A CONFLUENCE OF EVIDENCE.

I took the trade at 1330 when I saw a confluence of evidence, but it was not good enough.

You might want to focus on other instruments than the ES. Although my views are diametrically opposite of most on this board, I find CL to be a much easier instrument to trade.

One last piece of advice: If I were you, I'd probably watch the markets for some time instead. Take (mental) notes of how the instrument behaves, gather statistics on the average fluctuations etc. Then try to develop a trading plan from the information you have gathered...

Have you considered taking a step back and try to swing trade instead?

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  #223 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
In an objective approach, no matter how much a setup is yelling, it does not hold any more weight then any other occurrence of that setup. If my historically determined expectant win rate for that setup is 70%, that setup is considered to have a 70% chance to win, not 75, not 90, no matter how much it yells, no matter how gorgeous it is. It will be traded exactly like any other occurrence, same risk, same contract sizing, same trade management.

I could not really critique the setup itself since I don't trade it, never researched it, never backtested it, so, I don't know it intimately enough to critique. Now, if you were trading basic divergence, then I might have had a thought or two

This H.D. setup is a Classic Felton move, of course without his Proprietary custom designed indicators and has a 79% win rate. My Risk to reward was 1/4, because my risk was 2ticks(based on A.T.R calc.) PLUS SLIPPAGE and my TP was the far side of the kelter channel, since trend was up.

If I had given it a extra tick to breath, it would have been a winner.


Last edited by bobbyacim; July 25th, 2011 at 02:21 PM.
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  #224 (permalink)
Market Wizard
virginia
 
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bobbyacim View Post
...I usually try to avoid the S&P...

its so congested. this is only thing I can come up with, keep piling it up for 2t target.

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  #225 (permalink)
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bobbyacim View Post
This H.D. setup is a Classic Felton move, of course without his Proprietary custom designed indicators and has a 79% win rate. My Risk to reward was 1/4, because my risk was 2ticks(based on A.T.R calc.) PLUS SLIPPAGE and my TP was the far side of the kelter channel, since trend was up.

If I had given it a extra tick to breath, it would have been a winner.

I don't know how a 2 tick stop generally behaves on the ES, but I know I can't get away with that on the instrument I am familiar with like CL, GC. When you say the hidden divergence you trade has a 79% win rate, how did you arrive at that number? Did you measure that win rate on the ES itself? with a 2 tick stop and keltner target? or another instrument altogether? Did you yourself backtest the setup and derived the win rate? I hope you are not taking Felton's word for it

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  #226 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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bobbyacim View Post
This H.D. setup is a Classic Felton move, of course without his Proprietary custom designed indicators and has a 79% win rate. My Risk to reward was 1/4, because my risk was 2ticks(based on A.T.R calc.) PLUS SLIPPAGE and my TP was the far side of the kelter channel, since trend was up.

If I had given it a extra tick to breath, it would have been a winner.

You have much fear in your trading, which if you have read any of my posts, then you should identify this as a personality weakness, and you should now start learning to cope with this or trade around it.

If someone has developed a system with methods that multiply their strengths and understand their weaknesses, and you have done your due diligence then why is a stop loss so close to your entry needed. I do not use any more than a critical stop loss. I use conditions to exit my trade whether it be a profitable or loosing trade, no stop loss is needed if you have confidence in your system.

I am not in the business of doing peoples work for them, but you seem to be struggling with the advice you are given about learning about yourself and putting in the hard work of developing a system that works for yourself so I will give you my method of exiting a trade.

I use a close below/above (depends on if I am short or long the market I am trading) a price level with increased volume to take me out of a trade. So I can't be whipsawed out of a trade by a few ticks or even a few bars and then the trade go in my favor.

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  #227 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
I don't know how a 2 tick stop generally behaves on the ES, but I know I can't get away with that on the instrument I am familiar with like CL, GC. When you say the hidden divergence you trade has a 79% win rate, how did you arrive at that number? Did you measure that win rate on the ES itself? with a 2 tick stop and keltner target? or another instrument altogether? Did you yourself backtest the setup and derived the win rate? I hope you are not taking Felton's word for it

The 2 tick stop was derived by way of calculation of an A.T.R X 1.5 StOPLOSS
I LISTENED to BIG MIKE'S advice a few posts back and scraped my arbitrary stoploss for one determined by the MARKET ITSELF!

And yes, I took feltons word on this one, But on my 3 pin setup I PERSONALLY did manual backtesting to determine the win-rate.

Hey, the guy was head trader for T.I. for a long time and he has been around even longer.

MONPERE, you can not check-out every single thing on your own, he have to "accept somethings, sometimes on faith!.


Last edited by bobbyacim; July 25th, 2011 at 06:09 PM.
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  #228 (permalink)
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bobbyacim View Post
The 2 tick stop was derived by way of calculation of an A.T.R X 1.5 StOPLOSS
I LISTENED to BIG MIKE'S advice a few posts back and scraped my arbitrary stoploss for one determined by the MARKET ITSELF!

And yes, I took feltons word on this one, But on my 3 pin setup I PERSONALLY did manual backtesing to determine the win-rate.

Hey, the guy was head trader for T.I. for a long time and he has been around even longer.

MONPERE, you can not check-out every single thing on your own, he have to "accept somethings, sometimes on faith!.

The thing about statistical analysis in trading is it has to be pretty specific. Felton may have determined the 79% win rate on a daily chart of the Japanese Yen with a 250 tick stop, and a 5 tick target. That 79% win rate no longer holds water when applied to a 6 tick range of the ES with a 2 tick stop, because then it becomes comparing apples to chickens, that's why I asked the questions. Any stat you use has to come from your own backtesting of the exact method (instrument/entry/stop/exit/trade managemnet) you are trading.

BTW, not trying to ruffle any feathers with my posts.

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  #229 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
The thing about statistical analysis in trading is it has to be pretty specific. Felton may have determined the 79% win rate on a daily chart of the Japanese Yen with a 250 tick stop, and a 5 tick target. That 79% win rate no longer holds water when applied to a 6 tick range of the ES with a 2 tick stop, because then it becomes comparing apples to chickens, that's why I asked the questions. Any stat you use has to come from your own backtesting of the exact method (instrument/entry/stop/exit/trade managemnet) you are trading.

BTW, not trying to ruffle any feathers with my posts.

Monpere,
My friend, I truly appreciate and WELCOME your input, As well as everyone elses, maybe in the process we can all pickup something from this dialog!!

As Spock said in one of the StarTrek episodes "The needs of the many, outweight the needs of the one"

Please bring it on!if it can help improve my(our) skills.

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  #230 (permalink)
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bobbyacim View Post
I LISTENED to BIG MIKE'S advice

Sorry, but you may have heard me but I don't think you really were listening... at this point Bobby, I really feel you are simply one of the individuals who is not cut out for trading. Do not get upset about it, after all, it is just my opinion and even more than that, trading simply is not for everyone. There are a lot of professions that are not for "everyone", it takes the right kind of person sometimes to really excel in a profession.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

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