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Ten-thousand in Education and still not profitable!
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Ten-thousand in Education and still not profitable!

  #221 (permalink)
Elite Member
hilo ,hawaii
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja trader and think or swim
Favorite Futures: 6E and eur/usd
 
Posts: 17 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 242 given, 9 received

well where to start ?
what do you trade ? the 6E . great insturment to trade.
when do you trade ? you should be looking to trade from an hour before the london open through about an hour after the london open and an hour before the u.s. open through an hour after the u.s. open .sometimes 2 hours after either .
what is your daily goal? mine is 10 to 20 tics a day .if i catch a runner great and if not great the goal is met .a realistic goal .. last week i took 27 trades had 25 winners and 2 losers first loser was 8 tics lose and the second was 5 tics lose .
what do you use to enter a trade? i use first time of day , second chart patteren, third candle patteren , fourth are we trending on the smaller time frames if so are we coming into support or resistence ?
what kind of risk/trade managment do you use? i typicly use a 14 to 20 tic stop upon entry depending on how wide of a range we are trading in or if its trending or not ,, but as soon as the trade go,s in my favor plus 5 tics im moving my stop to plus 2 tics at plus 10 ill move it to plus 4 or 5 tics ,,until im stoped out or it takes off then ill just trail it and exit.. if the trade go,s against me a few tics ill give it a little time but if it just lingers just below my entry 3 or 5 or 8 tics and i was obviously wrong at least for the time being ill gladly take a 5 or 8 tic loss to clear it and wait for the next set up .
what is your over all trading plan ?
did you write it out ?
i would reccomend reading ,profitable candlestick trading second edition,by Stephen w. Bigalow .
chart patterens and candlestick patterens are in my opinion a great way to trade and throw in the right times of day to trade and avoid the rest of the day and or night, stick to your plan and goals and your off to a great start .

Do not over trade it or over think it ,,,,i do love to check out all the latest indicators and such but i will never take a trade based on any signal that go,s against the chart patterens and candle patterens or isnt in my trading window of time no matter what the indicators say ! Because just like countless others in the trading game iv taken alot of lumps over the last 7 years iv only been consistly profitable the last 2 but it can be done ,.. not sure this helps much but i hope it helps a little ... oh and i agree with big mike ,,,the changes that i had to make were in me ,,,my emotions and disipline were the key to turning it around from lose after lose to profitable ,,im not getting rich off of it just yet but i do win more then i lose ,,,cosistantly ,,,,,,but anyway Happy huladays .........

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  #222 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL. USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IRT
Broker/Data: Stage5/IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 32 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 22 given, 67 received

Stat's / Probabilities / Simple Mind

I have seen the software that some members have created and it doesn't quite accomplish for me what I need... I am a descretionary trader but I do follow specific mechanical setups but can't program it in IRT (My limitation probably).

I find the meticulous record keeping an excruciating exercise timewise. However, it shows me the optimal sizing and scaling. I can see my edge and then just execute.

Analysis lets you see the patterns of trade execution and how to manage size, understand typical drawdown, scaling probabilities. How to manage trailing stops, etc.

Once you can answer those questions and have a consistent process for your specific set-up or set-ups then it requires the focus and discipline to execute unless of course you are running on auto-pilot - lucky you..an ATM

One must identify their "edge" and maximize it.. For example what is the highest probaility in the ES (for me) 1 pt or 1.5 pts on a paticular set-up?

What are the probabilities of getting to 2 pts?

On a 3 contract unit Is it better to scale 2 @ 1 pt or scale 2 @ 1.5pts. When do I move my stop? How much? Do I take the 3rd lot off at 2 pts vs a B/E stop, etc. What are the probabilites. What are the probabilities of being stopped out before 1 pt scale or 1.5 pt scale, etc.

I do not think we have software that can define all of this. If there is something than please let me know.. This part of the work is mind numbing and takes days for me to do manually...

How: I literally go through my tic chart bar by bar on the right side of the screen, write down the time, take the worst execution price @ entry, write down my stop. I then move it one bar at a time and see the MFE and if I get any scales. If I get scales I bring sop to B/E on last.. If I get stopped out or B/E then I write MFE.. SO I can see what the highest probability scales are and the probability for getting my longer target with a B/E stop and if that helps my net considering the additional initial risk for that additional contract and fees.. Time of day.. do my stat's deteriorate at consistent times of day? Lunch? DO the probabilities get skewed? YOu need to know...

I'm probably not telling anybody here what they don't already know.. but once you identify a repeatable pattern/set-up you must do this so you can execute with discipline and not keep changing the recipe... IMHO, if you do not know these answers you are just a gambler and waiting to become a statistic..

The short time frame for me puts my risk in an area I am comfortable with.. that's me.. if I'm wrong another bus comes by fairly quickly..

If I want to expand my timeframe I have to increase my risk per lot.. I used to trade for longer swings: doubles, triples, homeruns and got my share but now I am hitting singles and bunts with a higher probability of getting on base.. Psycologically it fells better to get a winner quickly after a loser..

The downside is the need for focus and the high volume of trades 40 ish per day.. trading units of 3 lots. Nothing sexy. But if it works for 1 unit of 3 cars it works for 5 units or 10. If you get my drift.

I've traded most markets over the years at one time or another... I trade the ES because of liquidity - obviously you can trade anything if the numbers work for you.. It's all relative.

BTW, one thing that I had to change - strictly for me was the rigid concept of a specific risk/reward ratio that many believe is necessay to succeed. 3/1, 2/1, etc. How about a neutral skewed R/R.. with a high probability of hitting my first scale.. just better than 1/1.. Seems counterintuitive @ first unless the probability of getting the scale is better than 50% and the 3rd scale with a B/E stop is 30%. roughly 65% win ratio first scale @ 1pt, 55% @ 1.5 pts which gives the higher yield? Need to know that answer on 2 lot -2pts @1 vs 3 pts @ 1.5... huge... on first scale. Then probabilities for second scale at 2 pts for a total of either 4 or 5pts.. proft on a 3 lot unit. Risk 3.75 pts on 3 lot + fees. The edge is in the probabilities. This is ballpark just to make a point.. but close enough..

If I didn't do the numbers I wouldn't have found the money management that maximzed my yield.. May sound crazy but it is about squeezing the blood from a turnip.. I really don't care how I get it - just that I do...

That's what I do.. and yes, I yell at the computer and cheer on my position and curse when my stop gets hit - them bums..

If you have found something similar I'd appreciate hearing from you... especially in ES...

Love this business..... (most of the time)

"I have met the enemy and it is me"

Tom


Last edited by roztom; December 4th, 2011 at 11:28 AM.
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  #223 (permalink)
Elite Member
desert CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, TOS
Broker/Data: AMP/wCQG, TDA
Favorite Futures: CL,YM
 
Posts: 2,027 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,211 given, 1,551 received



roztom View Post

BTW, one thing that I had to change - strictly for me was the rigid concept of a specific risk/reward ratio that many believe is necessay to succeed. 3/1, 2/1, etc. How about a neutral skewed R/R.. with a high probability of hitting my first scale.. just better than 1/1.. Seems counterintuitive @ first unless the probability of getting the scale is better than 50% and the 3rd scale with a B/E stop is 30%. roughly 65% win ratio first scale @ 1pt, 55% @ 1.5 pts which gives the higher yield? Need to know that answer on 2 lot -2pts @1 vs 3 pts @ 1.5... huge... on first scale. Then probabilities for second scale at 2 pts for a total of either 4 or 5pts.. proft on a 3 lot unit. Risk 3.75 pts on 3 lot + fees. The edge is in the probabilities. This is ballpark just to make a point.. but close enough..

Sorry, I don't quite get what you mean by scale. Could you put it in a table format? Sounds like a useful interesting money management strategy.

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  #224 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL. USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IRT
Broker/Data: Stage5/IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 32 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 22 given, 67 received

Scaling

Sorry I was not clear..this is more of a conceptual exercise and it is totaslly dependent on the distribution of data. Ex..Based on each of your set-ups, what is the probability of it getting to any specific profit target before hitting your stop?

Let's assume that the shorter the distance to your target the higher the probability that you will achieve it before the market hits your stop..

Tjhe key then is what is the optinal target and optimal stop based on the specific set-up.

The scaling is about having a fixed sequence of targets based again on the probabilities of the market hitting your second profit target...

In the ES, I have a very close target, only 1.25 pts but with my set up I have a better than 60% probability of hitting it.. ... What I found is that instead of chasing the long ball with wider stops I could accomplish my objective with aggressive profit targets and stop management and a higher probability target..

What makes this work for me is the higher probability of hitting the target. The R/R is essentially just less than 1/1 with the trading commision but the profit factor offsets that..

The other downside is the frequency of trading and the conscentration required but it does work... Even if I hit a rough patch during the day I usually get it back by the close... like everything else it is volatile but I can put losses behind me very quickly.. Hope this helps...tom

Regards,

Tom

Nothing To It But To Do It
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  #225 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
Oslo, Norway
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: CQG, Excel
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Lornz's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,198 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 500 given, 1,235 received

@roztom That sounds strangely similar to what I do with my discretionary trading. For me it's just basic logic to perform this sort of analysis, but I haven't seen much discussion of it.
I would also add that the market is not static, and therefore it might be beneficial to build a volatility model to adjust the stops and targets.

It is tedious doing it all by hand, but there isn't any platform doing this out of the box that I know of. I eventually caved in and started to learn to program earlier this year. I'm not quite there yet, but I'm getting closer...

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  #226 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL. USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IRT
Broker/Data: Stage5/IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 32 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 22 given, 67 received

The Analysis

Agree: Doing the analysis by hand is the only way I can do it. I suspect it could be done on a Tradestation type platform if you could program your setup...

It takes me several days to analyze one day of trading.. excrusiating but the onlt way to know if it works... The other area to analyze is stop management... Now this is all very specific to my market ES and I cannot say this is appropriate for anyone else but I find that most trades in the setup I am refering to work very quickly with very little MAE... so

IMHO: There are 2 places to "profit" in a trade: 1. hit your target, 2. reduce or eliminate your risk.

#2 refers to trailing a stop and getting to breakeven.. what are the probabilities of getting stopped out after a trade has X tick MFE? I use a 5 tick initial stop in ES so if I have a 3 tick MFE I reduce my risk by 3 ticks.. When I get 4 ticks my stop goes B/E.. The analysis to do this is mind numbing but it allows me to follow a consistent plan...

Tom

Regards,

Tom

Nothing To It But To Do It
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  #227 (permalink)
Elite Member
hilo ,hawaii
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja trader and think or swim
Favorite Futures: 6E and eur/usd
 
Posts: 17 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 242 given, 9 received

volatility model for stops


Lornz View Post
@roztom That sounds strangely similar to what I do with my discretionary trading. For me it's just basic logic to perform this sort of analysis, but I haven't seen much discussion of it.
I would also add that the market is not static, and therefore it might be beneficial to build a volatility model to adjust the stops and targets.

It is tedious doing it all by hand, but there isn't any platform doing this out of the box that I know of. I eventually caved in and started to learn to program earlier this year. I'm not quite there yet, but I'm getting closer...


if you dont mind paying for the software i think this be along the lines you are looking for. i do not have the software . but it works with ninja traders dom and stratigies .
Welcome to Order Flow Analytics
and heres their youtube channel OrderFlowAnalytics's Channel - YouTube if you watch all of their video,s ,they do have exactly what you mentioned for the stops/trade mamegment looks pretty impressive hope this helps

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  #228 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL. USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IRT
Broker/Data: Stage5/IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 32 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 22 given, 67 received

Analytics

Thanks for the heads up on the software..unfortunately I use IRT and my set ups are really not programmable at least I would have no clue..

I use volume analysis, VB along with Volume Nodes, etc, Market Profile and some fairy dust so I can't imagine it being programmed so I believe I am stuck doing it by hand...



Lorenz: I see you use CQG. I used it for years..it used to be called TQ 20/20 before it became System One in the mid-80's... 87ish I think.. It was "the" charting/analytical package... might still be... Back when I leased it, it cost apx $700./mo in the 80's!!!

Before internet, etc...

Regards, Tom

Regards,

Tom

Nothing To It But To Do It

Last edited by roztom; December 6th, 2011 at 09:58 PM.
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  #229 (permalink)
Elite Member
Washington, DC
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja and TOS
Broker/Data: Ninja
Favorite Futures: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 55 since Dec 2009
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Cloudy View Post
"I love Charles's style of determining Price structure on the 1508 chart with all its nuances for a Long trade, Short trade, Pick and roll, etc. However I found my trade entry determination and ultimately trade profitablilty slightly improved when I used Perry's entry stratagy on the 377 chart. I personally found it to be less ambigious than Charlies 377 entry setup/criteria, and after all isn't that what we are all striving for, less ambiguity and better entry selection?

Will test it "Live" next week with 1 contract."

Good point about mixing ideas from other systems Bobby. I've done the same with my old methods combined with CJ's methods. CJ's 6e for more of the major swings, and my mixed system modified from other methods I took ideas from, for the scalping "in-between" the CJ6e waiting, when there is no current or clear signal. Watching how CJ does it, showed it can be done with patiently waiting, sometimes even hours ,something I didn't quite see and experience while looking for the "big swing" move before. But just like that the entry could be missed before you know it even if caught asleep for a minute, so some degree of constant vigilance seems required. Yes, I would second thanks to Charles for all his full help and giving us hope.

Now , it's just worrisome the last two weeks hasn't been that great for the CJ6e method on the 6e. With the 6e going nowhere enough to make a clear signal for long stretches, or suddenly trending without a good trigger, or ruining a CJ6e setup right at the trigger point, or even stop running an entry before resuming. Which seems to have happened more than few times in the last two weeks. I hope this doesn't spell the beginning of the end of the edge of the CJ6e system.

I noticed CJBooth's website has been taken down - wonder if he still has a room.

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  #230 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
Oslo, Norway
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: CQG, Excel
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Lornz's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,198 since Apr 2010
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phasganon View Post
if you dont mind paying for the software i think this be along the lines you are looking for. i do not have the software . but it works with ninja traders dom and stratigies .
Welcome to Order Flow Analytics
and heres their youtube channel OrderFlowAnalytics's Channel - YouTube if you watch all of their video,s ,they do have exactly what you mentioned for the stops/trade mamegment looks pretty impressive hope this helps

Thanks for the tip, but I can't see that this does what I'm/@roztom is describing. I intend to spend next year on building a custom application, thus I will finally satisfy both the control freak in me and my practical needs.

Thanks anyway, though!


roztom View Post
Thanks for the heads up on the software..unfortunately I use IRT and my set ups are really not programmable at least I would have no clue..

I use volume analysis, VB along with Volume Nodes, etc, Market Profile and some fairy dust so I can't imagine it being programmed so I believe I am stuck doing it by hand...



Lorenz: I see you use CQG. I used it for years..it used to be called TQ 20/20 before it became System One in the mid-80's... 87ish I think.. It was "the" charting/analytical package... might still be... Back when I leased it, it cost apx $700./mo in the 80's!!!

Before internet, etc...

Regards, Tom

Wow, that is way back. Thanks for sharing!
I hadn't even heard of the TQ 20/20 before now. I was in kindergarten at the time, and, for some strange reason, they didn't offer CQG there..

I would argue that it's still "the" charting platform, I haven't tried any better. The price is still the same, at least for the basic package. Double it for the lot, and triple it to include the spreader.

I've used I/RT (or MarketDelta) for years (in fact, I still have it on my laptop), and it's a very powerful platform. I think it offers the best MP charts, and it also has a lot of interesting analysis tools.

If only I could get some of that fairy dust, I'd be set...

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