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Ten-thousand in Education and still not profitable!


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Ten-thousand in Education and still not profitable!

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  #101 (permalink)
 ThatManFromTexas 
Houston,Tx
 
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farmer55 View Post
Monpere

I give up trying to explain to him that he is looking in the wrong place. The original post was about spending $10,000, and not getting what he payed for. But he's still trying these same ideas. Give up already and throw all that stuff away. But that is not what he wants to hear.

It's kinda like losing at poker. You know should cut your losses and walk away from the table, but you want to stay and "Get My Money Back" . So you stay and continue losing only now you're angry and scared. Eventually you can't Ante Up and they make you leave the table . So you go to the bar and have a few drinks to calm down and then you start thinking that the game must be rigged and you've been hood winked and no one every really wins at poker it's all a farce to cheat small guys like you out of your money. So you rail at anyone within listening distance in the bar about what a frickin scam Las Vegas is ... until everyone gets tired of listening to you and security throws you out and the Casino bans you.

The next morning you start looking for a better Casino.

Or maybe that's just me...

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #102 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
Not recently... he died in 1997.

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  #103 (permalink)
 Jigsaw Trading  Jigsaw Trading is an official Site Sponsor
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I have just read the OP.

It seems everyone thinks it's his fault.

It isn't.

There's a combination of 2 factors at play. Them & Him.

Them - well, they are mostly a bunch of charlatans. That includes people like Elder, Link, Carter, Slater, Darvas, Nison etc. etc. etc. This certainly includes 99.999% of trading web sites.

It's all bunk. Total nonsense. Absolute bloody rubbish.

I know 4 people that make a living from day trading:

1 - Trades stocks on earnings & runs fund money to the tune of about $40M. It's sort of borrowed fund money. They trade stocks on/ahead of earnings. They also trade reactive to news. They trade anything. Will trade 30+ stocks a day. 1 trader supported by 3 analysts.
2 - Trades 40 or so stocks based on watching them every day for years. He knows the stocks like old friends. Trades his own account. Trades alone.
3 - Trades futures based on many years of experience & with extensive use of Tape & DOM. Uses a combination of price action & tape reading to get in on larger day moves. Trades alone - 1 or 2 trades a day.
4 - Trades news stocks based on L2 & Tape. Goes for sustained moves but with extremely tight exit criterias. Trades 8-10 times a day, many break even trades looking for an extended move.

The one thing about these people is that although they have different styles, they stick with what they do. They are experts at it. If they taught you everything tomorrow, you'd not be as good as them at what they do. It takes months and maybe even a year or more to get there.

So therein lies the problem. If you learn something from any web site called "e-mini" something - it is SURE to be bunk. Even if you focused on that for a decade, you'd still be trying to polish a turd. On the other hand, you will inevitably doubt your teacher even when taught something solid because you will never be good at it until it becomes second nature.

So - learn off someone that is profitable. Stick with what they teach. Journal the results & make it your own.

I can't see any other way. I do wholeheartedly believe in getting trained - just not by a monkey.

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  #104 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
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DionysusToast View Post
So - learn off someone that is profitable. Stick with what they teach. Journal the results & make it your own.
.

I agree 100%.. issue is, no-one wants to do hard work.. which is why all those sites with emini make more money from subscriptions than from actual trading about 90% of the time... everyone just wants traffic light solutions..


DionysusToast View Post
I can't see any other way. I do wholeheartedly believe in getting trained - just not by a monkey.

I agree 100% again... but as usual, the monkey will make it seem easy.. so most people will go with it because of the antics... and shun away from the difficulty of the real master... at the same time, because no-one wants to put the time and effort, those real masters just dont care to teach given their expectations are that you wont do the hard work.. unless you prove them otherwise

both things, learning and getting trained take time... most traders just like to go about it the easy way...

all the monkeys get the attention because they are claiming that you can make $1MM a year on an hour a day with minimal risk and investment.. which in reality is not a lie... just that it would require at least a $250K account and averaging 2%-3% net every single day.. which is of course not realistic for a new trader with $5K account and no idea of how to trade.. considering that is hard to be net possitive every single day.

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  #105 (permalink)
 kctpac 
Auburn ma
 
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I am a newbie and I 've learned 3 things about trading to be profitable good technicals
Know the market
the right mindset
______________

= profit -ability

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  #106 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
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Things that always seem to ruin me and my success is taking others advice or system or any other small detail that I am not able to test myself and blindly use. Not only in trading.

Things like Stop Loss. It is a whole science to where one should put it. This phrase you won't find that often in forums. They will just tell you "SL behind the last swing" and I tell you, it's bullshit! Don't listen to them! Stop listening! To anything. Just look at the chart and look yourself where you put it. The idea of stoploss: to put it as close as possible but where it is least likely reached! That's it!

I don't want to call myself profitable even though I start having consistent success. A year from now, if I am success, I will tell you here in this very thread. I will also tell you, if I had no success.

Small exercise: Look at EURUSD H1 chart from February 13 until today. Tell me, on what days would you short the pair?

Waiting for your answer.

Sorry I had to use larger letters (my eyes)


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  #107 (permalink)
 Slipknot511 
Springfield,Missouri, USA
 
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The OP's question assumes that education and trading success are related to each other. I don't believe they are.
success has much less to do with education and much more to do with discipline and the right mindset.
Discipline will lead to consistency. With even a modicum of consistency, patterns in your behavior can be identified and adjusted. Without some sort of consistency, it is impossible to improve as a trader since your results will essentially be random. If your results are random, you can't even identify problems much less correct them.
This is why everyone says you must keep a trade journal & log all of your trades. But I can tell you, if you don't stick with one method and trade it consistently, that trading journal is useless.
Most all traders want instant success or they have unrealistic goals. This leads them to "system search". They will try a system for a few days or weeks and if their expectations aren't met, they will move on, assuming that the system is the reason they are not making money. The reality is that poor behavior patterns are the reason they fail. But without sticking with one system long enough, those patterns never have a chance to reveal themselves.
Sooner or later you have to admit that the only common denominator in all of the failed systems you tried is you. Once you can fully embrace this, then you can stick with one system, even if you consistently lose, long enough to start seeing the behavior patterns that are causing you to lose. Only then can you stand a chance at correcting the true weak link in your trading... and it has nothing to do with how much you have spent on education.

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  #108 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
new york
 
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Dear Folks,,
I have finally thrown in the towel, -I quit this fools game of thinking I can anticipate the behavior of thousands of traders in the span of a few minutes, and do it consistantly day in and day out. Hey if George Soros admited that his trade of the century was a one-in-a-life-time occurance; then who am to think I can do that day-in and day-out.

I am going back to working on constructing a convential business or opening a franschise where according to the department of commerce, I will have at least a 30-40% chance of success for at least the first 5 years!!!

It's so funny that over 6,000 have viewed this post and no one has been able to sqash this topic by offering any kind of proof of long term sustained profitability.

Thank you for all the input and I wish everyone eventual success.

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  #109 (permalink)
 MetalTrade 
 
 
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bobbyacim View Post
Dear Folks,,
I have finally thrown in the towel, -I quit this fools game of thinking I can anticipate the behavior of thousands of traders in the span of a few minutes, and do it consistantly day in and day out. Hey if George Soros admited that his trade of the century was a one-in-a-life-time occurance; then who am to think I can do that day-in and day-out.

I am going back to working on constructing a convential business or opening a franschise where according to the department of commerce, I will have at least a 30-40% chance of success for at least the first 5 years!!!

It's so funny that over 6,000 have viewed this post and no one has been able to sqash this topic by offering any kind of proof of long term sustained profitability.

Thank you for all the input and I wish everyone eventual success.

I wish you all the best in your business.

You know what Bobby, I'm sure you will run your business better because of your trading ordeal. No really, you will be harder and more consistent, hence even more active on number crunching.

Just go for it buddy, grab the market by the balls and shake all the money out of it, you deserve it. Remember 1 thing : PROFIT, make sure you don't just do business, do business only when you got the profit. There are too much people going into business grabbing deals and working on them without earning enough.

May the force be with you!

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  #110 (permalink)
 Slipknot511 
Springfield,Missouri, USA
 
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This raises another point: Trading cannot just be about making money. You MUST have a passion for trading. The markets place traders under some of the most adverse psychological stress possible. If it's only about money for you, there are easier ways to do it. Trading is without a doubt the hardest way of making easy money.
I trade because I can't do anything else. I love it. I'm addicted to it. Doing anything else for the rest of my life would be a death sentence. I love the game that much.

I appreciate Bobby's honesty and openness. Never, ever, ever give up and you will find your passion. And it has nothing to do with money. Do what you love and you will never work another day in your life. If you find your passion & it also pays the mortgage and groceries, then you'll be the luckiest man on earth.

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  #111 (permalink)
 Paul L 
New York City
 
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It is interesting that no one will provide a profitable track record.

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  #112 (permalink)
 itrade2win 
New York
 
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Slipknot511 View Post
This raises another point: Trading cannot just be about making money. You MUST have a passion for trading. The markets place traders under some of the most adverse psychological stress possible. If it's only about money for you, there are easier ways to do it. Trading is without a doubt the hardest way of making easy money.
I trade because I can't do anything else. I love it. I'm addicted to it. Doing anything else for the rest of my life would be a death sentence. I love the game that much.

I appreciate Bobby's honesty and openness. Never, ever, ever give up and you will find your passion. And it has nothing to do with money. Do what you love and you will never work another day in your life. If you find your passion & it also pays the mortgage and groceries, then you'll be the luckiest man on earth.


I couldn't have said it any better!

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  #113 (permalink)
 Deucalion 
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Paul Lemke View Post
It is interesting that no one will provide a profitable track record.

Okay, I'll bite - why is it interesting?

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  #114 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
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I still haven't decided which is more difficult - trading on the floor or electronic trading. In some ways it's an apple and oranges kind of comparison, where the advantages vs. disadvantages of each trading environment offset each other, and in some ways there are a lot of similarities.

If you want to talk about pressure, just think about standing in the midst of 700 other traders competing for the same dollar in a zero sum game. Also consider, that if you didn't own your membership, your seat lease may have been $10,000 mo., the cost of a clerk to check your trades another $1000.00 mo., and the minimum account size $50,000.00. That's a relatively high barrier to entry for almost anybody. And if making money wasn't difficult enough, you had to live with the very real fear of a debilitating or career ending out-trade


On the other hand, your commissions were capped at $20,000 for the year, and you were where the market was being made...there was an edge to be gained when trading on the floor, but there was also a very steep price to pay for enjoying that edge.


So don't be surprised when I tell you that the attrition rate at the futures exchanges was as high as the attrition rate allegedly is with e-trading. In fact, there was a veritable revolving door at the CBOT, and during my tenure there, I saw literally thousands of traders come-and-go. Their reasons for failing were as varied as their backgrounds; not capitalized sufficiently, unable to cope with the stress and competition, not disciplined, not committed to succeeding, etc.

Interestingly, any one fault can contribute to your failure as trader. But when it comes to what is required for success, you must possess
every attribute or you will fail. Only one needed to cause you to fail, and probably 10 that are needed for you to succeed. That's a pretty bad risk to reward ratio. For those that succeeded and endured; the reason is universal and certainly complex. It is a combination of a lot of factors, and the integration of various traits that are required for success. From a probability standpoint, we have a pretty good idea what the odds are, for that success.

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  #115 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Deucalion View Post
Okay, I'll bite - why is it interesting?

Yes, I agree, it is interesting. Not saying it isn't done, but if you asked 6,000 business owners if they would publish their Quickbooks P&L for the month on a forum then that could be an issue as well. I personally would if asked and it could be as anonymous as trading. For some reason, traders don't feel the comfort, or truly there are no profitable traders to do so? Or, the profitable traders just don't want to?

We had a few threads on this and I think some traders seeing a profitable trader in action is a nice thing. But the reality is that few will truly hit the 2,000% per month returns that many claim throughout the trading world.

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  #116 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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bluemele View Post
Yes, I agree, it is interesting. Not saying it isn't done, but if you asked 6,000 business owners if they would publish their Quickbooks P&L for the month on a forum then that could be an issue as well. I personally would if asked and it could be as anonymous as trading. For some reason, traders don't feel the comfort, or truly there are no profitable traders to do so? Or, the profitable traders just don't want to?

We had a few threads on this and I think some traders seeing a profitable trader in action is a nice thing. But the reality is that few will truly hit the 2,000% per month returns that many claim throughout the trading world.

Please don't take this the wrong way, but I am not sure why there are those on this thread, that are so preoccupied with seeing other peoples' P&L. You either believe in yourself, or you don't. Trying to motivate yourself by seeing someone else's positive P&L, isn't going to be the difference between your success or failure, but believing in yourself will.

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  #117 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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tigertrader View Post
Please don't take this the wrong way, but I am not sure why there are those on this thread, that are so preoccupied with seeing other peoples' P&L. You either believe in yourself, or you don't. Seeing someone else's P&L, isn't going to be the difference between someone's success or failure, but believing in yourself will.

I will interpret it to the best of my ability from your own context. Per my context, I disagree.

I believe I will fly to mars on my own ability some day as much as I want, but I have a feeling that most people believe the odds are a bit stacked against me. Not saying that I can't fly to mars on my own, but knowing what I know now and seeing what I see in my current reality sure limits that. NOW, if I saw someone do it, it sure would re-energize my interest in accomplishing that!!!!

You have traders who claim (not saying you or anyone else on this thread) 200% returns per day 365 days per year etc. but nobody can show it. When you see the guys who 'have to' show it you see it is nothing close to the reality.

I do believe I can be a profitable trader, otherwise I would have given up by now. However, the FACT that so few will actually show proof lends itself to the imaginary world.

STATEMENTS = REALITY.

I have spent 10's of K's on self-help guru courses and lessons on expanding your beliefs and connecting with them etc...

The person on this thread just asked for a simple, please show me as I have not been able to slam dunk the basketball from the free throw line. If it can be done, I can aspire to it and if I see you do it then I will find it much more easily.

We can't all be the 4 minute mile breaker. There is some logic to that one.

When talking to traders, I suggest them to BE REAL, SHOW REALITY, the world has enough fuzzy stuff w/ whip cream on it.

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  #118 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
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bluemele View Post
I will interpret it to the best of my ability from your own context. Per my context, I disagree.

I believe I will fly to mars on my own ability some day as much as I want, but I have a feeling that most people believe the odds are a bit stacked against me. Not saying that I can't fly to mars on my own, but knowing what I know now and seeing what I see in my current reality sure limits that. NOW, if I saw someone do it, it sure would re-energize my interest in accomplishing that!!!!

You have traders who claim (not saying you or anyone else on this thread) 200% returns per day 365 days per year etc. but nobody can show it. When you see the guys who 'have to' show it you see it is nothing close to the reality.

I do believe I can be a profitable trader, otherwise I would have given up by now. However, the FACT that so few will actually show proof lends itself to the imaginary world.

STATEMENTS = REALITY.

I have spent 10's of K's on self-help guru courses and lessons on expanding your beliefs and connecting with them etc...

The person on this thread just asked for a simple, please show me as I have not been able to slam dunk the basketball from the free throw line. If it can be done, I can aspire to it and if I see you do it then I will find it much more easily.

We can't all be the 4 minute mile breaker. There is some logic to that one.

When talking to traders, I suggest them to BE REAL, SHOW REALITY, the world has enough fuzzy stuff w/ whip cream on it.


I'm sorry, but I can't buy into your explanation -your analogies seem out of context on almost any level.

You are obviously an intelligent person, who is more than capable of distinguishing between fact and fantasy. If something appears to-be-too-good-to be-true, then it probably is. That's your first clue!

I do agree with you however, that if you are considering taking a course from a vendor who is making certain claims, you should have access to his track record. That make perfect sense.

Beyond that, it's ludicrous to assume that there are not any individuals in the trading universe that are profitable. What is even more ludicrous is that that you believe invalidating that statement will provide you with the hope that is needed to continue trading.

IMO, you attitude is textbook cognitive dissonance.

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  #119 (permalink)
 Linds 
Victoria, Australia
 
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Im also kind of intrigued at the lack of forthcomingness ( is that a word?) about 'proof'. There is a lot of smoke, mirrors and dreams in trading land and it would be of some value to see a concrete example of long term retail trader profitability. It wouldnt be an earth shattering event but just kind of nice. The intriguing part for me is the lengths people go to to argue that it has no value whatsoever. But thats just me..............

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  #120 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
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Linds View Post
Im also kind of intrigued at the lack of forthcomingness ( is that a word?) about 'proof'. There is a lot of smoke, mirrors and dreams in trading land and it would be of some value to see a concrete example of long term retail trader profitability. It wouldnt be an earth shattering event but just kind of nice. The intriguing part for me is the lengths people go to to argue that it has no value whatsoever. But thats just me..............


I am sorry your experience with trading has conflicted with your expectations, but the burden of proof does not rest on the shoulders of profitable traders - it's your problem, not ours. Stop trying to justify your inability to make money by challenging whether it can be accomplished, and then putting the onus on others to disprove your doubts and criticisms. It's a destructive behavior that in no way lends itself to becoming a better trader.


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  #121 (permalink)
 Linds 
Victoria, Australia
 
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Pretty defensive and unecessary response - adds to my intrigue. I dont doubt there are some long term profitable traders or that long term profitbility is possible for me...Sure I would have liked my own trajectory to be faster than it has been but that isnt the point of my comment. Disagree that it is a 'destructive behaviour' - I understand that you have a long history in trading including in the 'pit'? Did you never wonder about the profitability of your peers? Did you never seek out any evidence anecdotal or otherwise about the kind of profitbaility that successful others had achieved?

regards

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  #122 (permalink)
 Xeno 
UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
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I think some people on this thread need to make a distinction between traders trying to sell you some training and profitable traders who have no desire to either train you or publish their private financial records just so that a few strangers can be encouraged to keep looking to others for their own trading success.

It's really quite simple - the clever ones have already worked out how useful the thousands they spent on training really is. You answered your own questions. If you want a thread about how those sellers never proved anything then feel free but don't include the other type of traders I mentioned.

And the bottom line is this. It is possible to be a consistently profitable private retail trader. But no one is likely to prove it to you. If you believe it, then carry on, you don't need proof. If you don't, then really, why don't you give up now? Your attitude is all wrong. It's all about yourself, not others. Sorry to sound so harsh, but honestly, you'd be happier in the long run doing something else and giving up on trading if your whole thing is to keep harping on about people proving it to you.

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  #123 (permalink)
 Xeno 
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Linds View Post
- I understand that you have a long history in trading including in the 'pit'? Did you never wonder about the profitability of your peers? Did you never seek out any evidence anecdotal or otherwise about the kind of profitbaility that successful others had achieved?

regards

I never worked in the pit, but I imagine the evidence of rough profitability of many people around you was pretty prevalent without much looking.

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  #124 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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Linds View Post
Did you never seek out any evidence anecdotal or otherwise about the kind of profitbaility that successful others had achieved?

I could care less what the guy next to me was making - I only cared about what I was making and how I was trading. It was considered presumptuous to ask another trader what he made, whether it was for the day, the week, the month, or the year. If you did he would just answer, "I had a good day", or "At least I got my health", but actual amounts were rarely discussed. It's nobody's business.

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 tigertrader 
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Xeno View Post
I never worked in the pit, but I imagine the evidence of rough profitability of many people around you was pretty prevalent without much looking.

Of course...good news travels fast, bad news travels even faster. Very much a locker room mentality, but nevertheless P&Ls were a relatively, closely guarded secret. It was usually traders' clerks or clearing firm employees that leaked the info, not the traders themselves.

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  #126 (permalink)
 Linds 
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tigertrader View Post
Of course...good news travels fast, bad news travels even faster. Very much a locker room mentality, but nevertheless P&Ls were a relatively, closely guarded secret. It was usually traders' clerks or clearing firm employees that leaked the info, not the traders themselves.

Thanks
It seems to me then that you developed as a trader in an environment where you felt, saw and heard ( ie not just on a screen) about the real stories of how other traders were going? You probably had some rumour quality information and other info that you trusted the sources of that was much better than rumour. Of course the most important thing is how you were trading BUT I would argue that that kind of contextual information assisted with you with your goal setting and helped with sustaining motivation. It also provided you with pretty clear ( good enough for you) evidence that some traders were very successful - yes?

The modern day retail trader gets the vast majority of info on line via 'anonymous' others. There is a difference in the level of information here. It could be argued that the modern retail trader must sustain a higher level of faith because of the fact that a lot of online info cant be verified and I dont think anyone would dispute that there are enough dodgy claims made out there.

So I think these 'requests' for 'proof' are coming from that place in the retail traders psyche that would like to not rely quite so much on faith especially while in the early stages of development.

You and others argue it is a fruitless and even destructive quest to see the proof of another retail traders profitability - that may be the case - but I think the sentiment is easy enough to understand.

Anyway thanks for that insight Tigertrader.

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Tundi
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bobbyacim View Post
Myself as well as others I personally know have been dupped by the "Dream Merchants" of the trading world which includes Educators, System Vendors, Ebook Authors, Private Mentorship programs and even home spun system developers selling their wares on sites like ebay and Lulu.com- all claiming to be consistantly profitable!
My personal experience has been that none can offer any kind of PROOF OF ACTUAL PROFITABLITY when they are called out on it!! YOU JUST HAVE TO TAKE THEIR WORD FOR IT, WHY????

Oh, yes some can offer proof of OCCASIONAL PROFITS INTERMIXED WITH LOSSES,
BUT NO ONE IN THE LAST 6 YEARS OF MY EXHAUSTIVE SEARCH CAN OFFER PROOF THAT THEY CONSISTANTLY ARE PROFITABLE AND THEREFORE LIVE SOLEY OFF OF THEIR TRADING RESULTS!

For those who still cling to the mantra that the key to profitable trading is Education, Education, Education, let me give you a sample of the trading education I have participated in over the past 6 years and at an approx. cost of over $10,000

Eminiacademy $5,000
Eminitradingstrategies $1,500
4xmadeeasy $600
Teachmetotrade $999
E=MC2 trading method $500
and a slew of hardcover, ebooks and 10 page trading instuctional downloads

I have also clocked over 5,000 hours between metatrader and ninjatrader in sim mode.

Still not consistantly profitable, but as I said earlier, I can not find anyone else who is either, at least not with ACTUAL PROOF!!!

+4 stars. Bingo, Jackpot and Home Run.

I'm going to read the rest of this thread and keep an open mind; however, if I smell a raccoon, I'll set the trap.

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Tundi
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Big Mike View Post
I've been reading your posts the last few days.

To me, it seems very clear. You are searching externally for reasons why you are unprofitable. You are now even demanding proof someone else is profitable. Someone elses earnings have nothing to do with your own.

Stop looking externally, stop buying new methods, stop searching for something that is tangible that is going to change your trading. The problem is within, you need to focus on within to solve it.

Read my signature for steps you can take to start to become profitable.

Mike

Hope springs eternal. In between, your account evaporates.

Okay, Mike, time to revoke my membership for taking a contrary or negative position.

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Tundi
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bobbyacim View Post
First, something I would like to say to BIG MIKE;
Mike, I respect and greatly admire what you have built here, solely for the purpose of exchanging ideas, techniques and methodologies for the betterment of others like myself who are struggling with their trading, and for a lot longer than 6 years! Extremely Commendable Sir!

HOWEVER, wheather a method that I could devise myself would suit me better or wheather looking internally for answers is the solution, etc, etc..
I remain true to the main reason for starting this thread

IN 6 YEARS OF EXHAUSTIVE SEARCHING, I HAVE NOT FOUND ANY RETAIL DAYTRADER WHO UPON CLAIMING TO BE CONSISTANTLY PROFITABLE, CAN OFFER ANY CONCRETE PROOF OF SUCH. WHY?

Please understand I am strictly speaking about daytrading. Because swing trading and longer term is different, with these longer timeframes, you are rising above the so-called noise. Although if prices are fractal, then it can be argued that the longer term charts are just a greater amount of noise.

ENJOY YOUR HOLIDAYS EVERYONE AND GOD BLESS.

+3

Daytraders are an overly optimistic crowd and grossly undercapitalized. They believe in the marketing pitch of the NY Lottery--"All it takes is a dollar and a dream." I think the odds of winning for both groups are the same. The difference is the Lottery players don't get sucked into books, webinars, schools, forums, trading rooms, systems and indicators. At the end of their lives, Lottery players probably less than traders.

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  #130 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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Linds View Post
It seems to me then that you developed as a trader in an environment where you felt, saw and heard ( ie not just on a screen) about the real stories of how other traders were going? You probably had some rumour quality information and other info that you trusted the sources of that was much better than rumour.

Rumors weren't necessary, I had friends that flew their own Cessna Citations and had 8 figure years. But being there, cuts both ways. I was standing next to Tom Baldwin when he dropped $10MM in 60 seconds, and witnessed 95% of the people that walked into the CBOT and CME, walk right back out, after having lost their life savings. In the final analysis, neither scenario was a realistic option for me. I was neither well capitalized enough, nor risk tolerant enough, to achieve the former status, and unwilling to accept the latter. So whatever motivated me came from within, irrespective of any outside influence.

BTW: I think Xeno couldn't have put it any better, than he did - so over and out on this topic.

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  #131 (permalink)
 plethora 
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I haven't read this entire thread from the beginning so pardon me if what I say is out of context.

Step back for a moment and imagine that trading is a business that does not involve money, like medicine, for instance. Do the injured demand to see doctors' P&Ls as evidence that they are competent surgeons? Or are mechanics asked to show their P&L when a customer needs a new radiator? Do you go to a shrink and ask to see his bank account before determining if he can help you? Trading is a profession like any other. Some folks are going to be better at it than others for so many different reasons. But because the commodity happens to be the exchange of money no one should be expected to show their P&L to anyone. But you can still ask. I asked a prospective trading room operator today if I could see her P&L for a couple of days and was eloquently declined.

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  #132 (permalink)
 Linds 
Victoria, Australia
 
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Hi
No we dont ask a surgeon about his pnl, or a mechanic..but we would do well to find out if they are competent at their game if we are going to entrust our bodies or cars or whatever to anyone. The competency to be measured with a surgeon is probably survival rates of patients or some measure of successful recovery without relapse or complication. For a mechanic it is reliability of the repaired car and timely completion of the job. But for a trader it is ultimately the pnl - any other measure is probably just fluff.... Is it really possible to be a 'successful trader' and not make some money over time? So maybe not the most robust of analogies?

All in good fun..

L

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  #133 (permalink)
 plethora 
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Linds View Post
Hi
No we dont ask a surgeon about his pnl, or a mechanic..but we would do well to find out if they are competent at their game if we are going to entrust our bodies or cars or whatever to anyone. The competency to be measured with a surgeon is probably survival rates of patients or some measure of successful recovery without relapse or complication. For a mechanic it is reliability of the repaired car and timely completion of the job. But for a trader it is ultimately the pnl - any other measure is probably just fluff.... Is it really possible to be a 'successful trader' and not make some money over time? So maybe not the most robust of analogies?

All in good fun..

L

It's a dilemma, Linds. As the saying goes, "Those who can, do; those who can't, teach." But that doesn't stop us from obtaining a formal education from folks who can be considered losers in their professions. And it doesn't prevent someone who obtains an education from a "loser" to do something positive for him or herself with that training or someone who doesn't obtain an education to something big with his life. All the answers under the sun are inside.

This is fun, isn't it!

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  #134 (permalink)
 Linds 
Victoria, Australia
 
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trading and learning generally is a hugely personal/subjective thing isnt it so what you say is true - I could learn to be a master trader by collecting various knowledge and skill from a collection of unprofitable trading coaches - it is possible. However knowledge from 'those that know' carries more weight to me and I attempt to get my core knowlegde from those sources if I can. If I am successful with this quality filter on what I expose myself to then my hypothesis is that my learning will be quicker with fewer unnecessary detours. Just a personal theory of mine....:-)

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 EDGE 
Saint Louis, Mo., USA
 
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I found this link to be very interesting reading:

Free Proprietary Trading Training

Be careful not to click on any of the adds, just scroll down to the article and follow the links for steps 1 thru 9.

It's no means to an end all.. But sure wish I would have started off on a path like this, rather than the clueless one I did.


Edge

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 plethora 
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Linds View Post
trading and learning generally is a hugely personal/subjective thing isnt it so what you say is true - I could learn to be a master trader by collecting various knowledge and skill from a collection of unprofitable trading coaches - it is possible. However knowledge from 'those that know' carries more weight to me and I attempt to get my core knowlegde from those sources if I can. If I am successful with this quality filter on what I expose myself to then my hypothesis is that my learning will be quicker with fewer unnecessary detours. Just a personal theory of mine....:-)

You are right, Linds. But unfortunately the great traders do not need to teach to make a living. That doesn't mean that learning to become a great trader is impossible.

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  #137 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
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We've been through the whole track record before. I even offered to do it, with my trades and account number wiped off, and the next post said that ," I bet its Photoshoped", and then there were 30 other replies after that saying that i'm just showing off or a fake.
So whoever that wanted that proof, its obvious that its not gonna matter.

Second, I don't know, and have never met a single person that makes 200% a day day trading. I have a decent sized account, by trading standards (not by the standards that people probably have in this forum, which is considerably small). I know my account is much bigger than most in here. I bet the average account size of 95% of the people in this forum is less than 25k.

There's no way you can make a living with an account that small.
You need to have money to make money. Im not saying this to brag, and im not gonna say how big my account is, but its the truth. There's too much risk involved with an account that small. All it takes is a few mistakes, which probably will wipe out 8% of your account, then the pressure mounts on.

The very fact that people have a hard time subscribing to a data feed like DTN( which is only $80/month) just shows how under-capitalized most people in here are. I personally don't believe you can even make 50k a year with a 25k account. Thats 200% a year!!!
IMO, you need to have at least 75k+ to day trade for a living(im talking about as a source of income, not investing or otherwise), and i mean a very modest living.

To trade one ES contract without margin, you need 50k. How is it that people are trading 3-4 cars with a 10k account( yes im aware of the $500 day trade margins)?
The whole point behind such aggressive margins are for brokers to get rich. That is a fact. People call forex bucket shops, well the futures market is a bucket shop as well with this aggressive margin requirements.
2k just to open an account with mirus? $500 to open an account with AMP ....lol
You need at least 25k to day trade stocks. And stocks in my opinion are easier to trade and less volatile. What makes you think you can do it with an account that small?

This is all my opinion of course, and personal experience. If anyone is willing to prove how then can make 50k+ a year with a 10k account, i would really like to meet that person, and let him trade my account. I will even split the profits with him.

Can you make a living day trading, absolutely. But like i said, I've never seen anyone make 200% a day.

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 Michael.H 
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I bet I will get slammed for my prior post i bet, saying im full of it. It really doesn't matter, and it won't affect me, because i know what i said is the truth, and the cold hard reality that people can't accept. I hope that answers your question. There's a bunch of posts about whether if its in you, or if you have the temperament for it. Yea that may be true, but the biggest factor is MONEY, and screen time. There's alot of inefficiency's in the market. Trust me its not that difficult to make money when you stop worrying about every little damn tick.

The problem with day trading is that most people want to do it because they're probably out of money, or not making enough money, which I hate to say it, puts you shit out of luck in this business. Its very rare for someone that has a large sum of money to start day trading. I would say probably less than 10% fit that bill. Those are the ones that are more likely to succeed in this game. Thats WHY you see so many people selling indicators, or selling some other load of crap, because they've realized that they just don't have the capital, or they're just full of crap.

Good luck on your new career. I'm confident that you've made the right decision.

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  #139 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Cognitive Dissonance example:
"
A classical example of this idea (and the origin of the expression "sour grapes") is expressed in the fable The Fox and the Grapes by Aesop (ca. 620–564 BCE). In the story, a fox sees some high-hanging grapes and wishes to eat them. When the fox is unable to think of a way to reach them, he surmises that the grapes are probably not worth eating, as they must not be ripe or that they are sour. This example follows a pattern: one desires something, finds it unattainable, and reduces one's dissonance by criticizing it. Jon Elster calls this pattern "adaptive preference formation."
"

I wonder if the fox had ever eaten grapes before, or if he had seen anyone eat grapes or he had a genetic predisposition or desire to eat the grapes in the first place.

I think different people need encouragement in different ways. To call someone 'sour grapes' is possibly correct, but the whole point of this thread in my opinion is to help this person along to get a conclusion as to what is possible or not. He was reaching out.

I believe all of us always reach out to find others who have prevailed, and choose to 'model' that success. Standing on the shoulders of giants is an important concept and key in the growth of all forms of "professionals".

All of us have compared or analyzed our own actions against those of others and it is perfectly normal in my opinion and it doesn't mean you have poor thinking. I typically only hear it though from people who always have something to sell to others that it of course is an 'issue' in their thinking and the fact that they can't do it is just a 'mental' leap away. I agree, everything is just a mental leap away including your coach or mentor or whatever.

I think Bobby is smart to move on because he already exuded that feeling when he typed the original post. However, I still bring up the point that if you never saw anyone slam dunk a basketball from the free throw line, and you have dozens upon dozens of people that claim to do it but they don't want to show you because it is YOUR problem, then that logic makes me giggle inside.

Money is money. We don't take it with us, it doesn't make our d*ck's any bigger or make us better human beings. It simply is an idea or means to exchange. Of course we all want more, all for different reasons, but at the end of the day, take the money making part out of the intra-day trading and I think few people would do it for no money or no POSSIBILITY of making any money.

Anyone here trade for no money? If so, and if you are profitable, please send me where to deposit the funds and I will keep all the profits. Well, I guess I could give you a few duckets left over because I am a nice guy and wouldn't want you to starve.


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 plethora 
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bluemele View Post
Cognitive Dissonance example:
"
A classical example of this idea (and the origin of the expression "sour grapes") is expressed in the fable The Fox and the Grapes by Aesop (ca. 620564 BCE). In the story, a fox sees some high-hanging grapes and wishes to eat them. When the fox is unable to think of a way to reach them, he surmises that the grapes are probably not worth eating, as they must not be ripe or that they are sour. This example follows a pattern: one desires something, finds it unattainable, and reduces one's dissonance by criticizing it. Jon Elster calls this pattern "adaptive preference formation."
"

I wonder if the fox had ever eaten grapes before, or if he had seen anyone eat grapes or he had a genetic predisposition or desire to eat the grapes in the first place.

I think different people need encouragement in different ways. To call someone 'sour grapes' is possibly correct, but the whole point of this thread in my opinion is to help this person along to get a conclusion as to what is possible or not. He was reaching out.

I believe all of us always reach out to find others who have prevailed, and choose to 'model' that success. Standing on the heads of giants is an important concept and key in the growth of all forms of "professionals".

All of us have compared or analyzed our own actions against those of others and it is perfectly normal in my opinion and it doesn't mean you have poor thinking. I typically only hear it though from people who always have something to sell to others that it of course is an 'issue' in their thinking and the fact that they can't do it is just a 'mental' leap away. I agree, everything is just a mental leap away including your coach or mentor or whatever.

I think Bobby is smart to move on because he already exuded that feeling when he typed the original post. However, I still bring up the point that if you never saw anyone slam dunk a basketball from the free throw line, and you have dozens upon dozens of people that claim to do it but they don't want to show you because it is YOUR problem, then that logic makes me giggle inside.

Money is money. We don't take it with us, it doesn't make our d*ck's any bigger or make us better human beings. It simply is an idea or means to exchange. Of course we all want more, all for different reasons, but at the end of the day, take the money making part out of the intra-day trading and I think few people would do it for no money or no POSSIBILITY of making any money.

Anyone here trade for no money? If so, and if you are profitable, please send me where to deposit the funds and I will keep all the profits. Well, I guess I could give you a few duckets left over because I am a nice guy and wouldn't want you to starve.


Very nice post. I like you.

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  #141 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Michael.H View Post
We've been through the whole track record before. I even offered to do it, with my trades and account number wiped off, and the next post said that ," I bet its Photoshoped", and then there were 30 other replies after that saying that i'm just showing off or a fake.
So whoever that wanted that proof, its obvious that its not gonna matter.

Yes, I thought that was poor thinking.

Your comments are spot on and I agree 100%. If you don't have a large amount of 'reserves' you will put yourself in a situation like many of us that requires daily living allowances to accommodate your large screen time etc. and if you fall into the trap of buying this and buying that and losing 100K here and 100K there, before you know it, you need JOB! haha...

I can tell that certain people have different levels of experience and I have to tell you Michael that your posts are awesome.

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  #142 (permalink)
farmer55
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I see the OP has decided to stop. He is doing the right thing. Hopes and desires are hard to let go. I liked his honest questions.

Basically it was two questions. How in the world does anyone figure this trading stuff out? and If no one is willing to tell me how to do it, will someone at least show me a Profit and loss statement so at least I know someone is doing it.

I made an absolute fortune in 1983, and to this day I still do not know how people found out about it. But find out they did. How do you do it was all they wanted to know.

In the earrly 90's I entered a national trading contest and did not win it but did very well. But I learned my lesson. Refco wanted me to move to Chicago and run an account. But anything I did for them was going to be their property, so I declined.

I just got out of a second in lifetime trade in the grains last week. But everyone that knew I traded years ago thinks that I no longer trade, and I will keep it that way.

As for daytrading, you have to do the math. How many winners do you have, how many losers? That's it.

Take last Friday for example. There were over 30 trades that i saw, in just one commodity, on just one day! All I want is 2 of them. It's like that almost every day.

By the way, that fotune I made in '83. I lost all of it and more. I did that one more time after that too. And over the yrs I have quit trading vowing to totally give it up, 3 times.

So, no, I will never ever give a clue as to what I know. The dues for gaing the knowledge were too high.

Here's real pain. My wife found me in a corner of the basement once and I had to tell her that I lost everything. Pork bellies. Swiss Franc, sugar, I hate them.

This has been a diversion for me. As I never read or listen to anything having to do with the markets. I was however gratefull for the posts in theNinja Trader forums.

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  #143 (permalink)
 Xeno 
UK
 
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Linds View Post

So I think these 'requests' for 'proof' are coming from that place in the retail traders psyche that would like to not rely quite so much on faith especially while in the early stages of development.

You and others argue it is a fruitless and even destructive quest to see the proof of another retail traders profitability - that may be the case - but I think the sentiment is easy enough to understand.

The sentiment is easy to understand, yes, but the reason the reaction to it is quite strong is that the desire for proof is utterly wrong (and I'm not talking about trading trainers here, as I mentioned earlier - that's a separate topic)

Let me explain why it's wrong.

1. Many traders requiring proof would not know how to interpret it. It would be meaningless.
2. If you get proof, you'll probably want to just copy the method. This will greatly delay your advancement as a trader
3. Getting proof will prove to you that trading can be profitable for others. This is a bad thing. If you find this out it could well cost you a lot of money trying to be profitable in the wrong way
4. Getting proof that it's possible will tell you nothing about whether or not you can be profitable, which is the real question.

That last one is really important. People are tempted to say - well at least I know it's possible. Well clearly it's possible - just read market wizards. But whether it's possible for you is a much more important question than whether it's profitable in general.

So, my advice is, work out how you could determine whether a trading method is consistently possible. Have a little read about error and statistics. Have a read about luck, drawdown, sharpe ratios and risk of ruin. Find out about testing and in/out sample data. Then develop your own methods, and test them. Make them your own. You will be so much closer to being a profitable trader.

That's just my advice. There are other approaches, but I've found if you don't treat it somewhat as a science you're just surfing on the ups and downs of luck.

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  #144 (permalink)
 kctpac 
Auburn ma
 
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I have read alot here over the last couple of months. Some comments really bother me like traders saying we are your competition, Find what works for yourself I understand about self reliance however speaking for myself I come here because they are tired of getting screwed by the institutional PLAYERS and looked for help to approach trading . You think there would be more help since us small timers would band together. I would think that people would lend more of a helping hand so the learning curve wouldn't be so steep. I for one would like to put together an algorthym for trading. Surely at least the technicals would be more easily shared. I know there are alot of techniques and some like different ones But there still should be some consensus on what is a good approach like how many time perids to use beginning with 1,3,5days etc followed by 1,5, 15 min. then followed by the best ticks to select and when they all line up you have a higher success of a profitable trade. Input for what works best for what your trading like ES, CL, etc would be helpful as well.
One still has to learn to understand the marketand be aware of the geopoloitical events as well how the economic calender effects trading or not. No one give give you the right personality for trading some people will be good at this some others not. So far I have made 1588$ since Jan 10th but that has been just on intuition and use of a forecastesing service for 6 weeks. I have not traded knowing full well I need better understanding of set ups. So if there is anyone who wants to lend a hand I am listening. Thanks

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  #145 (permalink)
 MetalTrade 
 
 
Posts: 1,081 since May 2010

Bobby, BTW: you need proof ? Here's your proof :



You can see all his trades AND his account statement.

Ok it's not live, but who cares, you just have to do what he does with live trades and you're in the money !!!

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  #146 (permalink)
 Deucalion 
Calgary, Canada
 
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bluemele View Post
Yes, I agree, it is interesting. Not saying it isn't done, but if you asked 6,000 business owners if they would publish their Quickbooks P&L for the month on a forum then that could be an issue as well. I personally would if asked and it could be as anonymous as trading. For some reason, traders don't feel the comfort, or truly there are no profitable traders to do so? Or, the profitable traders just don't want to?

We had a few threads on this and I think some traders seeing a profitable trader in action is a nice thing. But the reality is that few will truly hit the 2,000% per month returns that many claim throughout the trading world.

They wanted to burn Galileo at the stake because he said some so heretical that he was considered either mad or evil or both. Then, as now, truth was/is stranger than fiction. You can believe what your mind has been bullied into believing. At this point, the truth won't even matter.

Then there is the concept that if such profitable traders existed, I doubt anyone could ever convince them of truly simply coming up with their PNL for the sake of convincing someone with an internet logon of their ability. They would gladly accept anonymity, silence and derision.

Does that sound completely alien and unrealistic? If it does, you are simply not open minded enough....yet.

BTW - who is claiming 2000% a month?

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  #147 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Deucalion View Post
They wanted to burn Galileo at the stake because he said some so heretical that he was considered either mad or evil or both. Then, as now, truth was/is stranger than fiction. You can believe what your mind has been bullied into believing. At this point, the truth won't even matter.

Then there is the concept that if such profitable traders existed, I doubt anyone could ever convince them of truly simply coming up with their PNL for the sake of convincing someone with an internet logon of their ability. They would gladly accept anonymity, silence and derision.

Does that sound completely alien and unrealistic? If it does, you are simply not open minded enough....yet.

BTW - who is claiming 2000% a month?

Open minded. Hmmmm. What does that mean? I can't open my mind long enough to question myself.

And, per your question. YES, it does sound alien that people will buy Lamborghini's, multi-million dollar mansions, private jets, box seats at sporting events, blah blah blah and yet, they are concerned that an anonymous trading statement would bankrupt them.

In a world that relishes materialism and scoffs at people who 'just don't get it' (materialism and the greed or fascination of money money money) then it is hard to believe they will pay for all those items, but 'don't want to be noticed' by others for their ability to build wealth.

Look, I have made a few million, I was lucky enough to do it somewhat young. I had learned that I am cool and poor people suck and they just don't 'get it' and it is a lack of 'hard work' and diligence and perseverance etc.. I am the best, others aren't or my class of people are better than your class of people or I can buy things that you can't, blah blah blah.... The only person who can see my financial statement is my CPA because because because...

I don't want to see anyone's statements, well, yes I do if they claim something. If I was on a real estate side and some new developers said, I want to see your balance sheet or financial statement, I would balk. No doubt. But, I think it is a bit different game as I can show ownership of an asset and you can quickly surmise what reality is within that investment within about 5 seconds if you have any experience.

With trading, beginning traders are reaching out saying, can someone show me some profitability because I have given it my all and I am coming up short. Some NEED to see that glimmer of hope as that is what drives them to move forward. You can say, 'well, those people are weak, and that would just be more trouble for everyone'....

I agree that too much negativity is cast out and saying well, you can't prove it, but this is the only profession I know that is so guarded in secrecy that you can't actually figure out what someone has done. To some, following is a way to get started, to others, it isn't and we all have different paths. I have seen vendors that start with something, and a student takes it to a whole new level beyond the original.

I love when people use the words 'right' and 'wrong'. or 'should'. I used it in a post last night and I laugh everytime I am so RIGHT and everyone should do what I tell them and believe what I believe etc.. We are all wrong. Every time, wrong. In some dimension, in some way, but we are also right. Just a matter in my opinion of the context one can see when making that decision.

Done w/ this conversation for now. We are all too smart for our own good.

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  #148 (permalink)
 rtrade 
Paradise, USA
 
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Michael.H View Post

What makes you think you can do it with an account that small?

This is all my opinion of course, and personal experience. If anyone is willing to prove how then can make 50k+ a year with a 10k account, i would really like to meet that person, and let him trade my account. I will even split the profits with him.

Are you SERIOUS? But then again, I'll take your word that you're an accomplished Trader/Master.

If I accomplish this, how do you propose trading your account and splitting profits?

And if I build up my trading account to 50k, what incentive do I have in trading your account....more Leverage?

thanks

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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  #149 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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Once upon a time a student desparately wishing to attain self-realisation asked his master, what is GOD ? His master replied... that's something you must experience by yourself. End of discussion

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  #150 (permalink)
farmer55
Minneapolis+ MN / USA
 
 
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kctpac

I'll lend a helping hand. It will be something you will not want to hear. And others will say "If you can't say something constructive, don't say anything." But it will be the best advice you will get.

I for one would like to put together an algorthym for trading. Surely at least the technicals would be more easily shared. I know there are alot of techniques and some like different ones But there still should be some consensus on what is a good approach like how many time perids to use beginning with 1,3,5days etc followed by 1,5, 15 min. then followed by the best ticks to select and when they all line up you have a higher success of a profitable trade.

Forget all that stuff you just wrote! Not one of those things is going to make you money! It's all the same worthless stuff. It's unending. It just doesn't work.

You've already bought into the notion that new and better indicators are all that stand between you and success.

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  #151 (permalink)
 thatguy 
New Brunswick, NJ
 
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farmer55 View Post
kctpac

I'll lend a helping hand. It will be something you will not want to hear. And others will say "If you can't say something constructive, don't say anything." But it will be the best advice you will get.

I for one would like to put together an algorthym for trading. Surely at least the technicals would be more easily shared. I know there are alot of techniques and some like different ones But there still should be some consensus on what is a good approach like how many time perids to use beginning with 1,3,5days etc followed by 1,5, 15 min. then followed by the best ticks to select and when they all line up you have a higher success of a profitable trade.

Forget all that stuff you just wrote! Not one of those things is going to make you money! It's all the same worthless stuff. It's unending. It just doesn't work.

You've already bought into the notion that new and better indicators are all that stand between you and success.

Just because something doesn't work for you, doesn't mean it doesn't work.

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  #152 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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Linds View Post
I understand that you have a long history in trading including in the 'pit'? Did you never wonder about the profitability of your peers? Did you never seek out any evidence anecdotal or otherwise about the kind of profitbaility that successful others had achieved?

regards

Like TigerTrader, I am a long term veteran of the trading pits. The profitability of many pit traders is obvious; anyone who started out trading 1 lots and is now trading 500 lots is obviously very profitable. The pit is a real as opposed to a virtual community so the success of some of its' members is visible to all. Online communities lack that transparency.

I am sympathetic to the position of the OP (but not to his hostility to the community). For many years, academic orthodoxy had it that beating the market was statistically impossible because they thought prices moved in a "random walk". This did not mean that an individual couldn't beat the market, only that for those who did it was not the result of skill but rather of luck: if enough people constantly flip a coin, a very few people will flip a long string of heads or tails.

It would be nice for people new to the community to see long term results of online traders for exactly the reasons various posters here have enumerated, namely to have evidence that success is possible. The problem is that those in the community who are successful have no obligation to provide that evidence, and some disincentives for doing so. Among the disincentives are that increasing the population of successful traders creates competition that may hurt your own results, and that providing online evidence of wealth may make you susceptible to attack (no one wants their children kidnapped).

That being said, like the OP, I find it interesting that nobody in in this community has posted statements online. It can't be the time required or a general unwillingness to help others, because some members clearly are willing to invest a great deal of time providing other members with advice, code development, argumentation, etc. It is either privacy concerns, or that success is very rare. In my own case it is that while I am slightly profitable, my success trading online does not rise to the level of proof any reasonable person would require.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #153 (permalink)
 rtrade 
Paradise, USA
 
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jstnbrg View Post
... anyone who started out trading 1 lots and is now trading 500 lots is obviously very profitable. The pit is a real as opposed to a virtual community so the success of some of its' members is visible to all. Online communities lack that transparency.


Wow, 1 lot to 500 lots....that gives me hope...the secret I believe is, Do You Believe?

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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  #154 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
CA
 
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Can someone just post a damn statement and get this over with?
I don't understand why people are still continuing this thread.

PM your email.. ill send you one if you want.

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  #155 (permalink)
 Slipknot511 
Springfield,Missouri, USA
 
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The reason people don't post their statements is for the exact same reason people don't disclose their salaries. Sex used to be the ultimate taboo in our society. Now that any and all things sexual are out of the closet, that phobia has moved over to money. I wouldn't even consider telling my closest friends what my salary is. Only my wife and my closest friend(who is in the same line of work as me) know my annual income. Even my kids don't know.
In my experience, people will discuss what happens in their bedroom more readily than what happens in their checkbook. It has less to do with trading, per se, than it does with popular psychology about money.
We all know that the vast majority on this site have careers besides trading. If I were to start a thread asking people to disclose their salaries, there would be very few, if any takers.

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  #156 (permalink)
 MetalTrade 
 
 
Posts: 1,081 since May 2010


Slipknot511 View Post
The reason people don't post their statements is for the exact same reason people don't disclose their salaries. Sex used to be the ultimate taboo in our society. Now that any and all things sexual are out of the closet, that phobia has moved over to money. I wouldn't even consider telling my closest friends what my salary is. Only my wife and my closest friend(who is in the same line of work as me) know my annual income. Even my kids don't know.
In my experience, people will discuss what happens in their bedroom more readily than what happens in their checkbook. It has less to do with trading, per se, than it does with popular psychology about money.
We all know that the vast majority on this site have careers besides trading. If I were to start a thread asking people to disclose their salaries, there would be very few, if any takers.

I never told anybody my income, not even my wife/GF's. (fortunately)

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  #157 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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jstnbrg View Post
Like TigerTrader, I am a long term veteran of the trading pits. The profitability of many pit traders is obvious; anyone who started out trading 1 lots and is now trading 500 lots is obviously very profitable. The pit is a real as opposed to a virtual community so the success of some of its' members is visible to all. Online communities lack that transparency.

I am sympathetic to the position of the OP (but not to his hostility to the community). For many years, academic orthodoxy had it that beating the market was statistically impossible because they thought prices moved in a "random walk". This did not mean that an individual couldn't beat the market, only that for those who did it was not the result of skill but rather of luck: if enough people constantly flip a coin, a very few people will flip a long string of heads or tails.

It would be nice for people new to the community to see long term results of online traders for exactly the reasons various posters here have enumerated, namely to have evidence that success is possible. The problem is that those in the community who are successful have no obligation to provide that evidence, and some disincentives for doing so. Among the disincentives are that increasing the population of successful traders creates competition that may hurt your own results, and that providing online evidence of wealth may make you susceptible to attack (no one wants their children kidnapped).

That being said, like the OP, I find it interesting that nobody in in this community has posted statements online. It can't be the time required or a general unwillingness to help others, because some members clearly are willing to invest a great deal of time providing other members with advice, code development, argumentation, etc. It is either privacy concerns, or that success is very rare. In my own case it is that while I am slightly profitable, my success trading online does not rise to the level of proof any reasonable person would require.

Wow, another real person. An honest, straight from the gut! WOW WOW WOW.... I can tell that you are well balanced just from your post, that you have left your EGO at the door which so few people these days are capable of. I applaud your post!

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  #158 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Michael.H View Post
Can someone just post a damn statement and get this over with?
I don't understand why people are still continuing this thread.

PM your email.. ill send you one if you want.

Sure. On it's way! I am not scared to review a profitable trader! It inspires me just like watching a surfing video before ya go surf!

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  #159 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
CA
 
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OK, i think i got about 15 private messages since last night alone asking for it. I think ill just post an old statement on this forum if it helps you guys to get this over with. I don't know how you guys are bringing topics about sex into this.
I'll even give you a general idea on how I used it and what i was looking for when i was trading this at that time.

I no longer use this, so its not gonna hurt me.

Would that really help you guys? Would that be sufficient?

What i found really funny is that there are people on this thread claiming that im a fake, its photoshopped, im showing off and they would never post a statement since it would never help anyone, but even they sent me private messages asking to see it. I thought that was interesting.

Just hit the thanks button on the bottom, I don't want to get another 30 private messages.

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  #160 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
OK, i think i got about 15 private messages since last night alone asking for it. I think ill just post an old statement on this forum if it helps you guys to get this over with. I don't know how you guys are bringing topics about sex into this.
I'll even give you a general idea on how I used it and what i was looking for when i was trading this at that time.

I no longer use this, so its not gonna hurt me.

Would that really help you guys? Would that be sufficient?

What i found really funny is that there are people on this thread claiming that im a fake, its photoshopped, im showing off and they would never post a statement since it would never help anyone, but even they sent me private messages asking to see it. I thought that was interesting.

Just hit the thanks button on the bottom, I don't want to get another 30 private messages.

Go for it Michael

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  #161 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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rtrade View Post
Wow, 1 lot to 500 lots....that gives me hope...the secret I believe is, Do You Believe?

Belief (really, proof, in the form of successful traders we worked with daily) is what motivated most of us to keep at it when the going was tough. As Tigertrader has pointed out, pit trading is a business with high fixed costs even if you're a small trader. Without the absolute knowledge that it was possible to make serious money in the pit, there's no way I could have stuck with it through the three years it took me to learn the business.

But pit trading is different. Pit traders had advantages not available to screen based traders, such as the ability to evaluate the net position of the crowd based on how it responds to order flow (for example, if a big offer comes into the pit and traders are extremely vocal and aggressive bidding for it one tick lower, it's a pretty good sign they're short), the ability to evaluate who is buying and selling and how much based on who is filling the order (Goldman's Five Year Note broker's eyes get real big as he screams "What's bid?" and I think to myself, "Less than before you went into panic mode"), and the most important advantage, the ability to sell the offer and buy the bid even if you joined an existing bid and/or offer (the real meaning of the phrase "getting the edge"). Personal relationships were very important in the pits. Also, cheating was not unknown. I used to think it was rare in Chicago, especially at the CBOT (common in New York), but now I'm not so sure.

What I'm saying is that while there were definitely many pit traders able to make substantial fortunes, that ability does not necessarily translate to the screen. Most pit traders I know have given up even trying, and I'm talking about guys who made millions in the pits, guys who have the risk tolerance, the capital, the experience, everything but today's "edge". I'm afraid that edge may be reserved for corporate sized money with the resources to employ teams of mathematicians and programmers and 7 to 8 figure budgets for IT infrastructure.

Sorry to be such a downer, but we have to accept the possibility that all the advantages reside with the pros just as they always have, and it may in fact have gotten worse. At the same time, the penalty for trying has also gotten less; retail commissions are much lower, quality historical data can be had for free, quality trading platforms and analysis software are cheap or free, you can hone your skills in sim, and even the smallest futures trader has equal access to market data and a place in the queue. I'm not yet sure there is a "secret" available to the retail trader.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #162 (permalink)
 rtrade 
Paradise, USA
 
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jstnbrg View Post
Sorry to be such a downer, but we have to accept the possibility that all the advantages reside with the pros just as they always have, and it may in fact have gotten worse. At the same time, the penalty for trying has also gotten less; retail commissions are much lower, quality historical data can be had for free, quality trading platforms and analysis software are cheap or free, you can hone your skills in sim, and even the smallest futures trader has equal access to market data and a place in the queue. I'm not yet sure there is a "secret" available to the retail trader.

Your not a downer, you're real as a breath of fresh air...thanks

I guess I'll just have to trade in the direction of the PRO's and just get a small piece of the move.

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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  #163 (permalink)
 Anagami 
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jstnbrg View Post
Belief (really, proof, in the form of successful traders we worked with daily) is what motivated most of us to keep at it when the going was tough. As Tigertrader has pointed out, pit trading is a business with high fixed costs even if you're a small trader. Without the absolute knowledge that it was possible to make serious money in the pit, there's no way I could have stuck with it through the three years it took me to learn the business.

But pit trading is different. Pit traders had advantages not available to screen based traders, such as the ability to evaluate the net position of the crowd based on how it responds to order flow (for example, if a big offer comes into the pit and traders are extremely vocal and aggressive bidding for it one tick lower, it's a pretty good sign they're short), the ability to evaluate who is buying and selling and how much based on who is filling the order (Goldman's Five Year Note broker's eyes get real big as he screams "What's bid?" and I think to myself, "Less than before you went into panic mode"), and the most important advantage, the ability to sell the offer and buy the bid even if you joined an existing bid and/or offer (the real meaning of the phrase "getting the edge"). Personal relationships were very important in the pits. Also, cheating was not unknown. I used to think it was rare in Chicago, especially at the CBOT (common in New York), but now I'm not so sure.

What I'm saying is that while there were definitely many pit traders able to make substantial fortunes, that ability does not necessarily translate to the screen. Most pit traders I know have given up even trying, and I'm talking about guys who made millions in the pits, guys who have the risk tolerance, the capital, the experience, everything but today's "edge". I'm afraid that edge may be reserved for corporate sized money with the resources to employ teams of mathematicians and programmers and 7 to 8 figure budgets for IT infrastructure.

Sorry to be such a downer, but we have to accept the possibility that all the advantages reside with the pros just as they always have, and it may in fact have gotten worse. At the same time, the penalty for trying has also gotten less; retail commissions are much lower, quality historical data can be had for free, quality trading platforms and analysis software are cheap or free, you can hone your skills in sim, and even the smallest futures trader has equal access to market data and a place in the queue. I'm not yet sure there is a "secret" available to the retail trader.

That's why squawk box might be a good idea if you trade S&P. You can't see their eyes... but you do hear the excitement at different points.

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  #164 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
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Anagami View Post
That's why squawk box might be a good idea if you trade S&P. You can't see their eyes... but you do hear the excitement at different points.

True. All different sorts of information can be helpful. Remember, however, that the real game is no longer being played in the pits.

I can't think of a reason why anyone places orders in the S&P pit these days, it was always a cesspool anyway. My wife worked for a discount futures broker 20 years ago. She said that when a customer got a good fill in the S&Ps, it was a sure sign the trade was really bad.

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 Anagami 
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jstnbrg View Post
True. All different sorts of information can be helpful. Remember, however, that the real game is no longer being played in the pits.

I can't think of a reason why anyone places orders in the S&P pit these days, it was always a cesspool anyway. My wife worked for a discount futures broker 20 years ago. She said that when a customer got a good fill in the S&Ps, it was a sure sign the trade was really bad.

Thanks for sharing that. Good fill bad trade applies to most instruments.

I cannot imagine why anyone would trade S&P period, pit or electronic (ok, it has huge volume). Back in the days when I would program and test a variety of systems, they would always always have the worst performance on ES out of all the instruments. In any case, I suppose that the way ES acts might appeal to some personalities (I was gonna say anal retentive types, but then I thought it would be too inflamatory )... but certainly not to me.

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ReaM
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bobbyacim View Post
Dear Folks,,
I have finally thrown in the towel, -I quit this fools game of thinking I can anticipate the behavior of thousands of traders in the span of a few minutes, and do it consistantly day in and day out. Hey if George Soros admited that his trade of the century was a one-in-a-life-time occurance; then who am to think I can do that day-in and day-out.

I am going back to working on constructing a convential business or opening a franschise where according to the department of commerce, I will have at least a 30-40% chance of success for at least the first 5 years!!!

It's so funny that over 6,000 have viewed this post and no one has been able to sqash this topic by offering any kind of proof of long term sustained profitability.

Thank you for all the input and I wish everyone eventual success.

nobody is gonna post you his account balance or wins. My win ratio is 56%, but my wins are twice as large as my loosers.

Yeah, forget Soros. He made only 10%, even I make more

I must disagree with slipknot. I think, it is because people forget that forex is about money. They start playing with all the beautiful indicators and forget what it really is about. Money management threads have most of the time 4-5 pages while some crappy heiken ashi system have millions of views. This is the problem with all the forums, especially the larger ones (ffactory).

This is a business and treat it as such! It is about money and everything you do while learning forex has to be about money, not indicators.

The only thing I can do is give you couple of signals and tell you how I trade, but there are always losses and some month go by with no profit.

There is too much bullshit in forums: For example, you will find opinions about Risk to Reward and people saying that having larger SL than TP is bad. Those who say it they had D minus in math.
While you risk 20 pips, you are not gaining 40. There is no such thing as 1:2 RR. There is Risk vs. Expectations. You risk 20 pips and you expect to gain 40. Now. You will certainly lose 20 pips if it goes against you. But will you gain 40 if goes the other way? What if it goes 39 pips and reverses? Your SL is something certain, your TP is not. At least not in the way forum people think.
The true Risk to Reward is calculated like this:

You have 50% chance to win and 50% to lose if your SL and TP are of the same value and there is no spread. I have done many simulations. Just believe me on that one. Now add speard. You do the math, and it will eat your account. Spread and spread only is what we should be fighting at first. Spread is what eats away profits. It is the edge of your broker. The house always wins.
True RR is mathematical, not user defined. It is calculated by (Pips-Spread)/Pips.

So, if your SL is 10 pips and TP 10 and spread 1, your true RR is 0.9. This is something sure, it is mathematically correct. The 10% of your win is what your broker gets paid. The brains must ring now: don't take trades that have SL of 10! Which means, move to higher TF! Here I gave you a mathematical reason to use times frames H1 and above! Take signals from these time frames only! It is still daytrading.
Your SL is 30, TP 29, your true RR is 0.96666. Your broker still gets some, but not as much! (percentage wise). Your goal is to keep that number as close as possible to 1.

It is very important to understand:
R:R does not really matter, because, if you target 100 pips with 10pip SL, you gonna get stopped out 10 times in a row before you make a profit. It is still about 1:1 RR in the definition that you know.


There is a lot of cowsh*t in forums. It is like a filter of good information, like someone is holding your from knowing the truth.
Forget the moving averages, the Elliot theory, news... you don't need them. They only cloud your way of thinking. Good news for USD!!! EU WILL GO SOUTH AND BAM, it flies north. Your have been just fooled by the big boys who needed your money (liquidity). Just look at price and see what it does. Don't think what it will do, see what it does. Don't imagine things, don't think at all. Just know, that when there is news, there will be chance to fool little investors and steal their money. This is how you must think. Greedy. But not greedy out of being desperate that you need to recover losses. Not greedy of hoping your trade will make even more pips. That's newbiness. Be greedy by taking every pip out of others. Remove fear completely, turn on your ego and fight for those pips. Be greedy by squeezing every pip out of market. Buy at valleys, sell on spikes. You see a larget spike after a trend has been going long for a while, this is where you close your position. This is big boys buying so that they can sell higher. This is them averaging up before taking profits. Do the freaking same!

Words worth tons of gold and they don't come from me:
The road to success is to use what others don't. Something that gives you the edge.

Find something that works. Like pin bars. Look at today, USDCHF and EURUSD (both H1) had nice pin bars today. They work, but very few people really trade them. Forget the moving averages and mechanical systems, they are meant to strip you of your money. Find that one thing and specialize in it. Learn everything about it and that's freaking it.

I spent maybe 1000 hours just to find what works. I went puking after spending 20+ hours at computer a day and next day it is the same. You need time and patience looking for what will give you your edge. It is not something special...no. It is something small that is easily overlooked and it is there, on the chart and everyone is looking at it.

ok, text getting long, i am starting to lose the overview. Sorry I was fast typing it...

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 jstnbrg 
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Anagami View Post
Thanks for sharing that. Good fill bad trade applies to most instruments.

I cannot imagine why anyone would trade S&P period, pit or electronic (ok, it has huge volume). Back in the days when I would program and test a variety of systems, they would always always have the worst performance on ES out of all the instruments. In any case, I suppose that the way ES acts might appeal to some personalities (I was gonna say anal retentive types, but then I thought it would be too inflamatory )... but certainly not to me.

Not my favorite instrument, but there are times I trade it, or YM (I get lower fees because I'm a CBOT member).

There is more information available to the stock index trader, namely market internals. E.g., the index is making a new high but fewer issues are making new highs than the previous swing high. This is real information, much as volume is real information, as opposed to the number massaging of indicators such as MACD, etc. I personally have not made much of an effort yet to incorporate this type of data into my trading, so I can't tell you from personal experience how useful it is.

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  #168 (permalink)
 cignal 
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I skipped reading a lot of the posts but if you want to see some real records just join velocity futures and look at their leader board. It refreshes every 3 minutes and there's a guy named "m a x" usually making $100,000+ net a day on a couple thousands trades a day. It doesn't look like he's trading today but I see him at the top all the time. He by far makes the most but u can see a lot of other traders that opt in to the program to publish their results to the leaderboard.

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 thatguy 
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Lots of good stuff in your post, but also a few things that just don't add up and don't make sense.


ReaM View Post
While you risk 20 pips, you are not gaining 40. There is no such thing as 1:2 RR. There is Risk vs. Expectations. You risk 20 pips and you expect to gain 40. Now. You will certainly lose 20 pips if it goes against you. But will you gain 40 if goes the other way? What if it goes 39 pips and reverses? Your SL is something certain, your TP is not. At least not in the way forum people think.

This doesn't make sense. Neither your stop nor target is certain. All that is certain is that one of them will get hit. To reverse your logic, if your stop is 20 and target is 40 and the trade goes 19 against you, does this mean you actually risk less than 20? If it goes 20 against you, you lose 20. If it gains 40, you make 40. What it does in between, i.e. gaining 39 and reverse to stop you, or going against you 19 and reverse to hit your target is irrelevant to your risk:reward. That doesn't change.


ReaM View Post
The true Risk to Reward is calculated like this:

You have 50% chance to win and 50% to lose if your SL and TP are of the same value and there is no spread. I have done many simulations. Just believe me on that one.

Simply not true. Running simulations is not proof. And no offense, but I won't you believe you just because you say you did simulations. I have a system with the same stop and target and average around 60% profitable which contradict what you are saying.


ReaM View Post
So, if your SL is 10 pips and TP 10 and spread 1, your true RR is 0.9. This is something sure, it is mathematically correct. The 10% of your win is what your broker gets paid. The brains must ring now: don't take trades that have SL of 10! Which means, move to higher TF! Here I gave you a mathematical reason to use times frames H1 and above! Take signals from these time frames only! It is still daytrading.
Your SL is 30, TP 29, your true RR is 0.96666. Your broker still gets some, but not as much! (percentage wise). Your goal is to keep that number as close as possible to 1.

Again, this is not proof that you need to move to an higher TF. This is true that percentage wise your commission will be lower percentage on larger targets, but this is not proof that you will be successfull only on 1 hour bars and above. This is your opinion. Not fact nor proof.

You also need to look at opportunity. Many trades on a small timeframe can result in more overall profits over a monthly basis than just a handful of trades a month on a larger timeframe.


ReaM View Post
It is very important to understand:
R:R does not really matter, because, if you target 100 pips with 10pip SL, you gonna get stopped out 10 times in a row before you make a profit. It is still about 1:1 RR in the definition that you know.

What do you base this calculation on? How do you know that you will get stopped 10 times in a row before making a profit? Are you saying then that you cannot get a better than 1:1 Risk:Reward because no matter what you do, over a series of trades it will still equate to 1:1?

As I said, many good points in your post, but a few things I don't agree with.

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 jstnbrg 
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thatguy View Post
Lots of good stuff in your post, but also a few things that just don't add up and don't make sense.

I'm not exceptional at math, but I think most of his points were examples, not hard and fast rules.




Quoting 
This doesn't make sense. Neither your stop nor target is certain. All that is certain is that one of them will get hit. To reverse your logic, if your stop is 20 and target is 40 and the trade goes 19 against you, does this mean you actually risk less than 20? If it goes 20 against you, you lose 20. If it gains 40, you make 40. What it does in between, i.e. gaining 39 and reverse to stop you, or going against you 19 and reverse to hit your target is irrelevant to your risk:reward. That doesn't change.

Actually, it is not certain that either will be hit. I've often had trades where the market just died at some point after I put the trade on, and I either got out at the end of the day or just got out because the reason for putting on the trade had disappeared.



Quoting 
Simply not true. Running simulations is not proof. And no offense, but I won't you believe you just because you say you did simulations. I have a system with the same stop and target and average around 60% profitable which contradict what you are saying.

Again, I don't think he's saying that R/R is always 50%, he's just using that as an example.


Quoting 
Again, this is not proof that you need to move to an higher TF. This is true that percentage wise your commission will be lower percentage on larger targets, but this is not proof that you will be successfull only on 1 hour bars and above. This is your opinion. Not fact nor proof.

I think I agree with @thatguy. I was confused by this part of the post.


Quoting 
You also need to look at opportunity. Many trades on a small timeframe can result in more overall profits over a monthly basis than just a handful of trades a month on a larger timeframe.

And in fact, if the expected value of your trade is positive, you have much more stable returns the more trades you can make. Personally I would much rather hire a trader with a 60% win/loss ratio who trades 10 times a day than one who trades 10 times a month. There is a reason why the casinos' most profitable game is the slot machine.



Quoting 
As I said, many good points in your post, but a few things I don't agree with.

I particularly liked the parts about trading being a business, and not getting too wrapped up in indicators. (An aside: I have come to disagree to some extent with those on this forum who disdain all indicators. In a discussion with @Fat Tails about how I may have been the only pit trader who totally ignored Floor Pivots, he replied that this was my loss, because they are important. He's a very bright guy and much more mathematically sophisticated than I am, so I took a look at them, and he appears to be correct. PP, S2, and R2 very often are both support/resistance, and what I call "attractors", prices that, when approached, get traded at least once, which makes them good targets. The same is true for the opening range, the first five minutes of RTH: it is important S/R later in the trading session.

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  #171 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
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jstnbrg View Post

That being said, like the OP, I find it interesting that nobody in in this community has posted statements online. It can't be the time required or a general unwillingness to help others, because some members clearly are willing to invest a great deal of time providing other members with advice, code development, argumentation, etc. It is either privacy concerns, or that success is very rare. In my own case it is that while I am slightly profitable, my success trading online does not rise to the level of proof any reasonable person would require.

In the interest of helping shine a light on this subject, I'm starting a trading journal where I will post my p/l per contract.

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ReaM
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thatguy View Post
Lots of good stuff in your post, but also a few things that just don't add up and don't make sense.



This doesn't make sense. Neither your stop nor target is certain. All that is certain is that one of them will get hit. To reverse your logic, if your stop is 20 and target is 40 and the trade goes 19 against you, does this mean you actually risk less than 20? If it goes 20 against you, you lose 20. If it gains 40, you make 40. What it does in between, i.e. gaining 39 and reverse to stop you, or going against you 19 and reverse to hit your target is irrelevant to your risk:reward. That doesn't change.



Simply not true. Running simulations is not proof. And no offense, but I won't you believe you just because you say you did simulations. I have a system with the same stop and target and average around 60% profitable which contradict what you are saying.



Again, this is not proof that you need to move to an higher TF. This is true that percentage wise your commission will be lower percentage on larger targets, but this is not proof that you will be successfull only on 1 hour bars and above. This is your opinion. Not fact nor proof.

You also need to look at opportunity. Many trades on a small timeframe can result in more overall profits over a monthly basis than just a handful of trades a month on a larger timeframe.



What do you base this calculation on? How do you know that you will get stopped 10 times in a row before making a profit? Are you saying then that you cannot get a better than 1:1 Risk:Reward because no matter what you do, over a series of trades it will still equate to 1:1?

As I said, many good points in your post, but a few things I don't agree with.

You did not quite understand me. If your SL is 20 pips and TP 40 pips, your SL has a 66% chance to get hit and TP 33%. A break even, assuming there is no spread. You can remove spread in your simulator and try it. I targeted the way people think on the largest forex forums and that they are wrong. Things like averaging up when you are proven right make you profitable or certain signals that will let you hold onto your position a lill longer.

If you don't believe simulations that were done specifically for that reason, then I don't know what else I have to contribute.

By the way your last lines: you said "better" RR, and this is not the way I think. There are traders who don't use stoploss, their R:R is infinite they risk everything to gain 2%, but they are profitable, because they have found a niche where they can squeeze a couple of pips there and there. 1:5 is not better than 5:1. How is it better? Because you like the 1 before 5?

You are talking about your system that has 60% win rate but I never talked about systems. Trading with the trend with 1:1 R:R gives you a higher win rate for example. But Ive never talked about it...

One has to isolate things and then look at what gives you the edge. Like in physics, you remove the friction and do experiments in vacuum.

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ReaM
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jstnbrg View Post
I Personally I would much rather hire a trader with a 60% win/loss ratio who trades 10 times a day than one who trades 10 times a month. There is a reason why the casinos' most profitable game is the slot machine.

10 times a day. The broker will be the casino then, not you.

I have about 15 valid signals each month and my account doubles in about 4-5 months. I would never be able to do it on 5 minute time frame. Experience tells me that. I always have 5 minute chart open, but I don't take signals from it, it is just to monitor the trade. Signals are H1 most of the time (and higher).

Price is not dependent on time frames, bars only show price in its typical way. But higher TF indicators are smoother and have less fake outs. Switching from M5 to M15 should give you 3-4% higher win ratio (signals are better) with the same strategy, switching to H1 from M15 about 3%. You have 6% higher win ratio (the numbers come from one strategy I tested on different TFs, you can dispute them I don't care).

I've been trading only a couple of years, and most of you have been in this business ten or more times longer and I respect every of your words.

What OP is asking for is whether someone is profitable or not and my answer is that it is easy to be profitable. I give him clues what would make him profitable: like not to listen to most of the things on forum, maybe take less trades (by going to higher TF and let time act as filter to overtrading).

I just went EURUSD long at 1.3927 let's see how it goes. Target 1.4000

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 thatguy 
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ReaM View Post
You did not quite understand me. If your SL is 20 pips and TP 40 pips, your SL has a 66% chance to get hit and TP 33%. A break even, assuming there is no spread. You can remove spread in your simulator and try it. I targeted the way people think on the largest forex forums and that they are wrong. Things like averaging up when you are proven right make you profitable or certain signals that will let you hold onto your position a lill longer.

If you don't believe simulations that were done specifically for that reason, then I don't know what else I have to contribute.

Based on what you are saying here it that you never will have more winners than losers when your profit target is bigger than your stop loss and that you will always be a break even, unless you do something else like averaging up. This is simply not true and your similations are severely flawed.

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  #175 (permalink)
 thatguy 
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ReaM View Post
10 times a day. The broker will be the casino then, not you.

I have about 15 valid signals each month and my account doubles in about 4-5 months. I would never be able to do it on 5 minute time frame. Experience tells me that. I always have 5 minute chart open, but I don't take signals from it, it is just to monitor the trade. Signals are H1 most of the time (and higher).

Price is not dependent on time frames, bars only show price in its typical way. But higher TF indicators are smoother and have less fake outs. Switching from M5 to M15 should give you 3-4% higher win ratio (signals are better) with the same strategy, switching to H1 from M15 about 3%. You have 6% higher win ratio (the numbers come from one strategy I tested on different TFs, you can dispute them I don't care).

I've been trading only a couple of years, and most of you have been in this business ten or more times longer and I respect every of your words.

What OP is asking for is whether someone is profitable or not and my answer is that it is easy to be profitable. I give him clues what would make him profitable: like not to listen to most of the things on forum, maybe take less trades (by going to higher TF and let time act as filter to overtrading)

I just went EURUSD long at 1.3927 let's see how it goes. Target 1.4000

Doubling your account every 4 to 5 months and being trading for a few years, means your account should be worth several millions by now and you can look forward to a billion soon. Congratulations on your success.

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  #176 (permalink)
ReaM
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thatguy View Post
Based on what you are saying here it that you never will have more winners than losers when your profit target is bigger than your stop loss and that you will always be a break even, unless you do something else like averaging up. This is simply not true and your similations are severely flawed.

nope, I never said that the number of winner will never be bigger than losers when TP>SL.

Trading with the trend for example will do that, but again, I did not address that...

Any billionairs here who could give EU a little push? Just a little


Oh, nono, I am not a millionair, and I was not profitable from beginning on, so not there yet.
I've read too many stories, I know that when market changes, I will lose it all. For example when I look back at 2008 where I began, I still don't know how I would have traded there.
The luck will end and I might become poor once again, I am aware of that.

And if I have a little more luck, I will lower my risk over time so not to lose it all (currently 2% per trade). A billion has never been the goal. 10% a year on 1 mil is more than enough to me and I am not there yet and if I will, I will let you know...

EDIT:
Sorry I need to add, because it is of utter importance: Those who calculate fixed R:R are doomed to fail. It is just wrong. Look EURUSD spot today. I went short 1.3871, because I like to sleep a little longer. Open 5m chart to see the detail. I entered where it was still falling strong.

I went short
  • because my system told me to
  • I swore to take every valid signal
  • because I assumed EU might fall further.
Now the market gave me about 20 pips only before it headed back and turned into range. This is where I was proven wrong that I assumed EU will fall.

I closed my position with a small loss:

  • I was proven wrong that EU will continue falling
  • Average daily range was reached
  • the Pair went into bullish range (higher highs, higher lows)

Then a BUY signal came what is very rare on one single day (usually in ranging market) and I went long and currently +1.3% in profit on my account risking 2% targeting whatever the market gives me (I expect it to be around 1.4000). The market will fall into range and this is where I will look for a spike with good price to take profit. It might be way before 1.4000 so I just take my profits when it is time to.

I never think about RR at all. I just look at what market does and if EU continued falling there wouldve never been a buy signal and I wouldve reentered short.

I think what I write might help the OP, because I have no idea what he has been taught to do for 10 grand that he spent on education. I simply write how I think and how I make profit, and if it is any help I am happy.

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  #177 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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ReaM View Post

I've read too many stories, I know that when market changes, I will lose it all. For example when I look back at 2008 where I began, I still don't know how I would have traded there.
The luck will end and I might become poor once again, I am aware of that.

And if I have a little more luck, I will lower my risk over time so not to lose it all (currently 2% per trade). A billion has never been the goal. 10% a year on 1 mil is more than enough to me and I am not there yet and if I will, I will let you know...

A couple of comments both for you and for @thatguy. You will not necessarily lose it all when the market changes if being prepared for change is part of your business plan. I've had a rule for many years that if I have three consecutive losing trades, step back and take stock, maybe take the rest of the day off or at least enough time to evaluate what's going wrong, and the same if you have three consecutive losing days (take off at least one day and possibly more). Maybe after a string of n losing days, you trade in Sim until you're back on track. Also, you have to stick to that 2% rule: if you start to lose money, you have to cut your size appropriately to your reduced account size. I'm guessing you're doing well now because markets are trendy, and you're concerned about what happens when markets become less so. Try to find a mean reversion system that works in low volatility periods, or try to figure out now some other strategy appropriate to less volatile, trendy markets.

Concerning your account growth, I say, f_cking awesome! and keep it up. Ignore @thatguy's sarcasm, he's just never met someone who did what you are currently doing. I am someone who did exactly that: account growth at a geometric pace with a constant account size per unit traded. I started out trading 1 lots in the Municipal Bond pit with $5,000 in net worth and wound up being well enough capitalized to trade 1000 lots in the Five Year Note pit, although I rarely traded that large because the market wasn't liquid enough. I did trade 500 lots every day for a couple of years, however. It is possible, and I'm not the only one who has done it. Unlike most of the people on this forum, as someone who traded on the CBOT floor I was exposed to literally thousands of traders over a 25 year career. I've seen quite a few traders who grew their accounts that way. There will be bumps that slow your account growth (for me, it was a home addition followed by having a child followed by building a new home) but if you have a true edge over the market and are patient, there's no reason why you can't build a $10,000 account into millions. This is especially true if you are young and have few outside obligations, such as supporting a family. PM me if you have questions along the way. I have a lot of thoughts on how to conduct this sort of career and life. I've seen a lot.

I get the impression from your comments that you may be trading cash FX. While I don't have personal experience trading through FX dealers, be aware that their interests may not be aligned with yours. If they are taking the opposite side of your trades, are they making a fair market? If you use stops, might they attempt to trigger them? If liquidity breaks down, will they make you a market at all when you need it? This will become a bigger problem the larger you get. If you are not trading on a futures exchange, consider doing so.

10% on a million is an insufficient goal, both as a total level of income and as a return for trading. 100% on a million is more like it, and being able to retire and earn 5% low risk on $5-10 million is what you should be looking to do in the long run. Think big, but think patient.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #178 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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ReaM View Post
10 times a day. The broker will be the casino then, not you.

I was responding to this earlier while trading but Firefox crashed on me and I lost the post. I was assuming a positive return including transaction costs. If your return is negative after transaction costs, then you should stop trading now. It's possible your broker is charging too much, especially if it's an FX dealer, see my previous post.

When the expected value of a bet is positive, the way to maximize returns is to make a long string of small bets relative to capital. That's why slot machines are the casinos' biggest revenue producers even though the casinos' edge is small (I think it's small in the slots, but I could be wrong). If the expected return of a bet is negative, the way to maximize expected value relative to your risk capital (other than not making the bet) is to make a large bet once. Odds are you will still lose money, but at least you have a chance of making money. In both scenarios, the more bets you make, the higher probability your revenue stream will converge to the expected return of the bet, and if the expected value is negative and you have finite capital, you will eventually lose all of your capital. I'm not by any means a stats whiz, I learned this in the book "Commodity Market Money Management" by Fred Gehm many years ago. He laid out the math better than I can, so I refer you to that source.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #179 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
CA
 
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Here you go. One full months statement. I only did one contract only at the time, one trade a day average. It was purely a tape reading method i was testing and I used to get in and out based on price ladder data and CD order flow transition. I don' like to scalp anymore, so i don't use this. I do use techniques i learned trading of the ladder to help time my entries when i try to catch bigger swings, thats my main method to trade. Less stress, very simple.Hope this helps.

I hope I also answered the other guys claim that said i never made a dime in this business, or i don't know anything about trading. Im the only one in the entire forum that posted an actual( not sim) pnl. I wiped out my order ID and other info that i think is important, so its not gonna hurt me to put this up. If he claims he's profitable, then i encourage him to show me a months statement. Just one single month.

I don't know how this is going to help you guys, but you wanted it, so here it is.

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  #180 (permalink)
 Michael.H 
CA
 
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Actually, big mike is right. This isn't about a pissing contest. I don't want to see anybody's statement, because that will just lead to more arguments which i don't have time for. People wanted proof to see if its doable, so i provided proof. I don't want anything from anybody else. I think that this should put everything to rest about if it can be done or not. Also remember, I don't have a trading blog ,I'm not selling anything or promoting anything ( unlike most vendors), and im providing proof (unlike most vendors). I won't be tracking this thread anymore, so if anybody has a general question( please don't ask me personal information like account size... etc) then shoot a PM.

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  #181 (permalink)
 Xeno 
UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
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ReaM View Post
[/B]Find something that works. Like pin bars. Look at today, USDCHF and EURUSD (both H1) had nice pin bars today. They work, but very few people really trade them. Forget the moving averages and mechanical systems, they are meant to strip you of your money. Find that one thing and specialize in it. Learn everything about it and that's freaking it.

You make some good points. Then you go and do something that the bullsh1tters do and dismess SMA and mechanical out of hand. I use SMA and 100% mechanical and they work fine for me.

It's sweeping generalisations that are stupid.

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  #182 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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Xeno View Post
You make some good points. Then you go and do something that the bullsh1tters do and dismess SMA and mechanical out of hand. I use SMA and 100% mechanical and they work fine for me.

It's sweeping generalisations that are stupid.

Yes. Remember, HFT is mechanical, and that's the most profitable game out there.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #183 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
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Xeno View Post
You make some good points. Then you go and do something that the bullsh1tters do and dismess SMA and mechanical out of hand. I use SMA and 100% mechanical and they work fine for me.

It's sweeping generalisations that are stupid.

If they work for you then don't change it. There are people who never use charts and do better than me.
I would not need charts, if someone told me before official words that Blue Star Airlines has won a lawsuit And yes, nobody has an idea how much money is made that way.

If you specialize in SMA, good.

You know what I meant. Walk into forex factory and look into systems. RSI crossing 0, moving averages crossed, enter. This is not how you trade and this is what I target.

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  #184 (permalink)
 Xeno 
UK
 
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ReaM View Post

You know what I meant. Walk into forex factory and look into systems. RSI crossing 0, moving averages crossed, enter. This is now how you trade and this is what I target.

Sorry, I didn't quite now what you meant, and I still don't from the above (this is how I trade? you have no idea how I trade)

If you mean that most off the shelf or freely available indicator based systems will not work by themselves, then I agree.

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  #185 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
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jstnbrg View Post
...

I am 24.

To be honest, I don't even know what futures are. I know they are not open over night, but that's all.
I found what works for me and I don't think I will change that. I don't have patience, but I simply turn off my PC after I place the trade and that seems to work. Yesterday after I placed the EURUSD trade, I went jogging. Came back and take profit was not far away. Went to shower, came back, target hit, now looking for the next trade. It takes a lot to remove that fear of sitting and watching the position to go against you.

I trade with Oanda forex spot. Yeah, I must say, their platform crashes more often than not, but it works. My stops are far away from anyones jurisdiction (except Bernake's^^). Shame there is no photoshop or maya or final cut in forex, some sort of leading software.

Thanks for all these words. Who knows, maybe in 5 years I'll be the guy who opened that thread, broke and desperatly looking for help.

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  #186 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
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Xeno View Post
Sorry, I didn't quite now what you meant, and I still don't from the above (this is how I trade? you have no idea how I trade)

If you mean that most off the shelf or freely available indicator based systems will not work by themselves, then I agree.

aaah, it is NOT instead of NOW.
The sentence reads "This is not how you trade and this is what I target."

Or: This is not how one should be trading.

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  #187 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
new york
 
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aztrader9 View Post
Here is my two cents. You will never be successful until you have your blood sweat, tears and money in a method you design yourself. Yes you can borrow and steal from others, but until you understand it down to the nitty gritty details, you won't trust it. Thats why buying something from someone else almost never works. You don't trust it.

So quit trying. Take everything off the charts, and just trade price action. If you need something to show you support or resistance, you can find that stuff here on futures.io (formerly BMT).

If you can build something you believe in, you will make it to profitability. But stop chasing the gurus. Most of them trade something they built for themselves and I believe they make it work for themselves, but the likelihood of you emulating that success is very small.

Lastly, never ever ever blame anyone or anything for your success or failure. It is entirely your doing so stop blaming and start looking internally for the answers. I bet the $10K and 5000 hours are not looking at the same exact set up. Instead I bet you have 100 hours looking at 50 different set ups. You need 1000 hours looking at the same set up to really begin to understand, 5000 hours will get you really good and 10000 hours should put you into the realm of greatness. But it all has to be with the same set up, otherwise you are just spinning your wheels.

Have fun.

Took everyones Advice and decided to spend every waking minute burning my eyes reading, studing, implementing and finally practicing with Market Profile graphics. read everything I could about M.P. Analysis including a 6 part Course of study put out by CBOT back in the 80's about market profile, actually read it three times!!!!

Market profile uses statistical math and Standard deviation to get a deeper understanding of what is happening in the market between sellers and buyers. To show you if the market is trending or rotating, if it is reaching the final phase of an up or down move, etc...
Something I find inpossible with candlesticks and technical indicators alone!

But market profile in not easy to understand and implement, especially since live markets don't always reflect a "perfect" bell curve model of distribution(textbook) however, it is the most advanced tool I have come across in my 5 year journey. And Reza's Market profile Boot-camp really gave me a deep understanding of the subject. My trading is turning around as a result of learning this very valuable skill.

I invite you to see my new thread called" Ten thousand in education finally paying off"

GOD BLESS.......

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  #188 (permalink)
 lsmith 
Orinda CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading, to me at least, is both art and science, heavy on the art. It is a lot like sailing. Knowledge of oceanography, meteorology, navigation are helpful and in some cases very necessary. You need charts, compasses, GPSs, rader and the like. Still, not ending up on the shoals comes down to making judgements based upon what you know, what you measure, what you see and then taking action based on these judgements. To sail successfully knowledge, judgment and motor skills are need in at least equal supply. Everyday is different. You can't rely solely on one instrument like radar. You have to look with your eyes, think with your head and steer with your hands. If your are in the fog, you have to be doubly careful--or stop until the fog lifts. Good, safe sailing comes from experience at the helm, not from the next, best gadget. Seamanship is an art supported by science.

So it is with trading. You need experience. You have to feel the market you are trading and the tools and indicators you are using. If it was as simple as being mechanical then everybody would be doing it and doing it successfully; evidence abounds that they are not. You will know you are on the right track when it feels right. I know many won't agree with me but this has been my experience. Things start to go right with you feel good about your trading approach, you have confidence in it and you expect your trades to work out. Mathematical positive expectancy is one thing. Mental positive expectancy is another and makes all the difference in the world.

You have to synthesize all of the information for yourself and trade yourself, your way. I can teach you to drive a race car, but I can't teach you to win races. You have to work that out for yourself. You have to have the skills and experience. You need a good car. Then, you have to want to win. You have to see yourself as a winner. Otherwise all that expensive training and experience will be for naught.

Everybody is different. Different markets, systems and approaches work for different personalities and temperaments. The trick is finding an approach to the market that you feel positive about, that you can and will execute properly and that one way or another is "yours." You can come up with your own from scratch or you can borrow from others and make it your own. Either way, it's your money, your approach and you have to own it. You have to win with it; nobody can do it for you now matter how much you pay them for their system.

For me it was, and is, scalping the ES though I hate to use the term scalping as it means different things to different people. These are my own personal criteria. I want to be in and out--less the a minute and I'm ecstatic, no more than a small number of minutes or I get fidgety. I don't have the psychological staying power to hold a position much longer. On good days I want to be done for the day early and move on to other things. On tougher days I want to have enough trading opportunities to recover from a loss and end up at break even or better. I'm paranoid. I want excellent liquidity so I feel like I can get out in a crisis and not be stuck holding a losing position any longer than necessary. Although I am not the most patient person I am willing to discipline myself to wait for my setups and not over trade--this is tough for me and I constantly work on it.

So, I set a modest goal per trade, 5 ticks on the ES, all in/all out. I manage the trade very closely. I am very aggressive about not taking losses. If the trade doesn't feel right I scratch the trade or better yet take a tick or two profit. I'm not proud--ticks is ticks as they say. I automate the target and stop management to keep myself as honest as possible and reduce the thinking and fiddling required during a trade. I practice so that pulling the trigger is muscle memory--automatic. I see a setup; I pull the trigger with as little "thinking" as possible--this takes constant drilling for me. I'm fortunate to be able trade with enough size that when I book my 5 ticks I'm done. I specialize in hitting singles and leave the home runs to the big bats. This fits my personality, my financial situation and my lifestyle. It works for me.

I think it is helpful for anyone to think about these kinds of criteria before getting bogged down in trading systems. See yourself at your trading desk. What does your day look like? Do you want to up early and be done in an hour because you have another job or things to do? Can you trade all day? Do you want study the market in the evening and place swing or position trades but not sit at the desk during market hours? Do you want to make fewer, bigger trades or do you want to be active and make more, smaller traders? How will these approaches affect your stop loss tolerance? What are you willing to risk per trade and how long can you psychologically tolerate that risk? How much would you like to make from a single trade? How much money do you need to make to be done for the day, week, month, year?

Know yourself. Then you can develop or buy a trading approach that has the best chance of working for you. You can't trade somebody else's trading plan. Trade YOUR plan.

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  #189 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Good post@lsmith, to the forum!

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  #190 (permalink)
 Fu510n 
Suffield, CT
 
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Big Mike View Post
Good post@ lsmith, to the forum!

Mike

Mike - I just saw that quite a few (9) people clicked "Thanks" for lsmith, but his/her counter was only showing "1 received". Does this get updated daily?

Just curious (and wanted to let you know in case something was amiss).

-Guy

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  #191 (permalink)
KMTOPGUN
Sydney
 
 
Posts: 9 since May 2011
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I am a total newby and I am of the opinion that I will spend as little money as possible learning Forex but I will dedicate as mush time as I possibly can to finding my own Holy Grail. I have read hundreds of blogs about the fact that 95% or traders fail or do not make profits and to me this is simply a challenge as I firmly believe that I am as good as the 5% of successful traders because I am a winner, not a loser so this PMA will enable me to persist and persevere until I have reached that elite club.

My inspiration has come from one of my longest mates who is a motor mechanic and is almost totally illiterate but this guy has invested 10years of his life and I would estimate at least $80K, if not more in various tuitions, seminars and guaranteed winning strategies to only realise that it is soley up to him to find his own path which he is now doing. Although he is still not a millionair, actually not even a $10,000air in trading, he is now at last making more profitable trades than losses which I believe means he is now a successful Forex trader because he has found his own system that works for him.

My point is that $80K spent on Forex Education was a total waste of time and the ultimate fee required to become a successful trader is persistance, investing time and not worrying what anyonelse is doing.

My mate has been asking me to become involved in Forex for many years but it is only in the past couple of weeks that I have actually looked at this for the first time and it made me cry because I am now 53 years old and I now realise what opportunities I have missed if only I had looked at this sooner...well now I am on my way and my goal in life now is to make this work for me then share my success strategy with my best friend because he has always had me in mind when he started down this path.

My point is that unless you have the right motivation and desire to become a successfull Forex trader, get out of the game because the reality is there is no crystal ball and hynsight is a wonderful thing but the absolute reality is that there is not a single trade pair I have been watching that has done exactly the same today as it did yesterday, the week before or the month before so DO NOT think you will ever be able to find a foolproof indicator because all indicators are a result of the past and no indicator can tell you what the market will do on the next time frame so the only thing you can rely on is that a lot of the time you will be wrong so simply set your stop losses very short and ride your profit position as long as you can so that even if you have 10 losses of $100 = $1000, as long as you have 5 wins of $300 = $1500 then you have made a profit.

Well this is my humble opinion anyway and to you Mr $10K loss, my suggestion is stop looking for other winners and stop spending money on get rich Forex schemes and simply focus on your trading, perfecting your own indicators, following your indicators and not budging from your trading plan to get to the point of making more profits than losses and once you have come to realise this, I beleive you will have got rid of that monkey on your shoulder. Trading is you and you alone, nobody else. It is you against the market or should I say the market against you so do not try and conquer the market, simply be happy with taking little bites of it and be happy with those bites.

My spelling is not the best so please forgive me.......LOL

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  #192 (permalink)
 Jaguar52 
NY + NY/USA
 
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A few extra thoughts about this....Simple direct answer: WORK, WORK, and more WORK!

Trading strategies are not very hard to learn or devise. Keep the strategy signals obvious. Keep them simple.

What is not simple or easy is learning to understand the flow and movement of price, volume and momentum. While the strategy buy and sell signals fire within the perameters of their defined structures (rules and technical visual queues); the dynamic changes in the market immediately after entering the trade are not factored into the signals. The statistical probability of the next tick is about all that was considered in defining the signal beyond the precise moment, and it is because of this probability that we employ the strategies and take the signals (click the mouse to enter the trade).

After that, the success or failure of the trade is completely up to you. All you have to help you is the dynamic flow of current price action, evolving and accumulating volume, pace of price movement into and out of the market, and your own dicipline and experience.

Keep it simple, accept what is happening over what you want to happen, and act accordingly.

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  #193 (permalink)
RemoWilliams
Pine Bluff , Arkansas
 
 
Posts: 8 since Jun 2011
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I just saw this post and i feel your pain bobby. I first became interested in daytrading back in 98 when i ran across a website of "traders" that supposedly reached out to new traders to mentor them. After finding out the cost of this I was sort of put out. I tried to study on my own but at the time i didnt know what was good method vs. garbage. Somewhere along the way i gave up the dream.

A number of years later i was discussing investments with my father, (hes got bucks) and he always told me never trade but invest for the long term etc etc, well now things were different, he had found a company that teaches trading the market and options. Between him and my step mom they probabaly sunk 40k into training, thats just a guesstimate but im betting im on the low side. This was about 4 years ago and after sifting through all of his knowledge hes boiled it down to 3 or 4 indicators and a great understanding of options. He doesnt day trade but hes a fairly active trader and is making consistent money.

When he got started in this it inspired me to renew my efforts and i have been trying to find something that works for me as well. I am not the same as my dad and I cant just take his method and run with it. First off i dont have the capital to make money using his system, second off i like trading so my dream is day trading. At 38 years old i find myself a full time student again after 12 years at the railroad and my wife brings in the paychecks. Our debt is paid off except for the house and we drive 2 cars that arent exactly crown jewels. Its hard to save money at this time so I am trying to get back into education for my trading future.

I have about 3k left from my last trading disaster but it could be worse i suppose. Anyway im glad to be here with other people that have been in my shoes or are in them right now. What Id love to hear, is stories from you guys that were in my shoes and have since launched into a successful trading career. Thanks again for this site.

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  #194 (permalink)
KMTOPGUN
Sydney
 
 
Posts: 9 since May 2011
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Hi guys,

Well I am now 2 months into my trading and have learnt a lot...a lot of what not to do...LOL. This caper is certainly not for the faint hearted and if you are a person that is afraid to lose money, DO NOT become a Forex trader because it is inevitable you will lose some money even when you are the best of the best but if you reduce your losses and maximise your gains then this is this is worth persuing.

Biggest thing I have found is that there are literally hundreds if not thousands of amazing, beautiful, technical, mathematical and ultimately USELESS indicators to suck in us novices. There are probably even more brokers or traders trying to sell guaranteed trading systems and methodologies........tell them all to get lost. Bottom line is that a successfull trader does not need to make money selling trading systems so do not get suckered in. I have stuck to my guns of not spending any money on trading but spending huge amounts of time learning a system/strategy and it is starting to pay off. One must make ones own mistakes and find ones own system/strategy.

Jaguar, you made a mention of watching flow, volume, momentum and such well for those that are not familiar, do not waste your time with any type of volume indicator or volume trade analysis system offered because it is impossible to get accurate volume indicators for forex as currency is not traded through a central exchange so bottom line is simply throw away any volume indicator you are using because it is simply of no use.

One of the most important things to get your head around is Price Action so try and clean your charts of all the clutter (indicators) and start with a fresh clean chart with maybe a moving average line or 2 and also a resistance level indicator. The resistance level indicator allows you to judge potential trade opportunities and also set stop loss and take profit positions. I have also found a candle count down indicator useful.

Once you have these simple indicators, simply watch the charts and see what happens on particular resistance or support levels and you will gradually see a pattern. Also for thos that are not aware, the only chart to get an accurate indication of what the market is doing is the 1 hour chart as every platform, broker and trader on earth sees the identical information on a 1 hour chart. This does not mean you need to trade on a 1 hour chart, it simply means this is your most accurate time frame and you can then reference down or up in time according to your own preference.

I hope this has been of help to fast track your learning phase and reduce your time waste phase.

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  #195 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus, IB
Trading: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 300 given, 3,339 received

Good post, and by number of thanks in response, it appears to be quite inspiring to most. Allow me
make a couple of comments.


lsmith View Post
Trading, to me at least, is both art and science, heavy on the art.

You will find that the ratio of successful artists to artists waiting tables, is identical to the ratio of successful
traders to failed traders. The trader failure rate speaks for itself. If you believe in trading as an art, ask
yourself which group of artists will I most likely I fall in according to the failure rate. This may prompt you to investigate some other approaches to trading.


Quoting 
It is a lot like sailing...

Not sure how to parlay that into helping me pull the trigger.


Quoting 
You have to feel the market you are trading and the tools and indicators you are using...

Not sure how you feel the indicators you are trading? But I do think you need to understand them, know what they do best, and in which circumstances they do what they do best, and in which circumstances not to trust them.


Quoting 
You will know you are on the right track when it feels right...

I am a contrarian by nature, so going against the market feels right to me by nature, but it constantly draws down my account. I think you will know you are on the right track when you develop a method that is consistent.


Quoting 
I practice so that pulling the trigger is muscle memory--automatic. I see a setup; I pull the trigger with as little "thinking" as possible

100% agreed. This is also my philosophy. But, this is not in concert with your earlier statements about trading being an 'art', 'sailing' and trades 'feeling' right.


Quoting 
Know yourself. Then you can develop or buy a trading approach that has the best chance of working for you. You can't trade somebody else's trading plan. Trade YOUR plan.

100% agreed. I could not say it better myself, and I've said it many times

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  #196 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus, IB
Trading: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
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lsmith View Post
Trading, to me at least, is both art and science, heavy on the art. It is a lot like sailing. Knowledge of oceanography, meteorology, navigation are helpful and in some cases very necessary. You need charts, compasses, GPSs, rader and the like. Still, not ending up on the shoals comes down to making judgements based upon what you know, what you measure, what you see and then taking action based on these judgements. To sail successfully knowledge, judgment and motor skills are need in at least equal supply. Everyday is different. You can't rely solely on one instrument like radar. You have to look with your eyes, think with your head and steer with your hands. If your are in the fog, you have to be doubly careful--or stop until the fog lifts. Good, safe sailing comes from experience at the helm, not from the next, best gadget. Seamanship is an art supported by science.
...

Good post, and by number of thanks in response, it appears to be quite inspiring to most. Allow me
make a couple of comments.


Quoting 
Trading, to me at least, is both art and science, heavy on the art.

You will find that the ratio of successful artists to artists waiting tables, is identical to the ratio of successful
traders to failed traders. The trader failure rate speaks for itself. If you believe in trading as an art, ask
yourself which group of artists will I fall in. You may also want to investigate some other approaches to trading.


Quoting 
It is a lot like sailing...

Not sure how to parlay that into helping me pull the trigger.


Quoting 
You have to feel the market you are trading and the tools and indicators you are using...

Not sure how to feel the indicators I am trading. But, I do think you need to understand them, know what they do best, and in which circumstances they do what they do best, and in which circumstances not to trust them.


Quoting 
You will know you are on the right track when it feels right...

I am a contrarian by nature, so going against the market feels right to me by nature, but it constantly draws down my account. I think you will know you are on the right track when you develop a method that is consistent.


Quoting 
I practice so that pulling the trigger is muscle memory--automatic. I see a setup; I pull the trigger with as little "thinking" as possible

100% agreed. This is also my philosophy. But, this is not in concert with your earlier statements about trading being an 'art', 'sailing' and trades 'feeling' right.


Quoting 
Know yourself. Then you can develop or buy a trading approach that has the best chance of working for you. You can't trade somebody else's trading plan. Trade YOUR plan.

100% agreed. I could not say it better myself, although I've said it many times

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  #197 (permalink)
KMTOPGUN
Sydney
 
 
Posts: 9 since May 2011
Thanks: 4 given, 6 received

Another thing I wanted to mention as a new trader is that stop losses are double edge swords. Yes they are critical and anyone that trades without them would have to have rocks in their heads but one of the biggest mistakes I have made in most of my past losing trades is that I simply set my stop losses too tight. Based on my indicators I did ultimately pick the right swing or entry point but because I was so paranoid about not losing too much money in the case the market went against me, I set my stop loss way too tight which resulted in me getting kicked out time and time again on a good trade then unfortunately once I realised I was kicked out there was no point in me chasing my original direction decision, in other words I had already missed the boat so this also showed me that I should not worry about chasing a trend, simply count your loss and accept this loss as a learning fee.

I now trade by placing a stop loss at 2 to 3 resistance points above my entry point and if I am trading a volatile market I simply readjust my stop loss once I am in a profit position. I also take out a portion of profit at a certain resistance level then reset my stop loss to that takeout point so no matter what happens at least I have paid myself for my trade.

PS, another indicator I have on my chart is a spread indicator so I can time my take entry position at the lowest spread level to improve my chance of getting into a profit position quicker.

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  #198 (permalink)
 bobbyacim 
new york
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker: mb trading
Trading: 6e
 
bobbyacim's Avatar
 
Posts: 184 since Feb 2010


monpere View Post
Good post, and by number of thanks in response, it appears to be quite inspiring to most. Allow me
make a couple of comments.

You will find that the ratio of successful artists to artists waiting tables, is identical to the ratio of successful
traders to failed traders. The trader failure rate speaks for itself. If you believe in trading as an art, ask
yourself which group of artists will I fall in. You may also want to investigate some other approaches to trading.

Not sure how to parlay that into helping me pull the trigger.

Not sure how to feel the indicators I am trading. But, I do think you need to understand them, know what they do best, and in which circumstances they do what they do best, and in which circumstances not to trust them.

I am a contrarian by nature, so going against the market feels right to me by nature, but it constantly draws down my account. I think you will know you are on the right track when you develop a method that is consistent.

100% agreed. This is also my philosophy. But, this is not in concert with your earlier statements about trading being an 'art', 'sailing' and trades 'feeling' right.

100% agreed. I could not say it better myself, although I've said it many times

Hi Everybody!

I have not given up, yet.....maybe I am a gluten for pain.
Went back into it with the monies I have left(16k)
Wrote to Roger F. and asked if his offer for a futures.io (formerly BMT) member to participate in his trading room was still available. He wrote me a very nice email, basically said that me looking in was not going to be enough for turning my trading around.
And made a very attractive offer if I became a paying client of his course. I am considering....

Anyway, where are we today?
after much research on my own, I concluded that the best trade opportunities happen with the trend.
and I often observed good trades utilizing the phenomina called hidden divergence; where there is a discrepency between price and an indicator.

Traders international teaches it.
Felton teaches it.
and others, so I believe its not going away any time soon.

As of last week, I took 18 LIVE trades on the 6E, was slightly up until recently, when I incurred two sessions of 4 losing trades at a time. I was trading 3 contracts, with a SL of 5 ticks per; TP on the first 2 contracts was 7 ticks, letting the 3rd run for whatever additional monies i could get, of course I had a breakeven after 4 ticks and if my 3rd contract ran well, i incrementally moved it's stoploss. Well, with that lossing streak, I am down $1.6 k
Have considered throwing in the towel forever!!

However the Masochism has kicked in again!!!!
I just re-vamped EVERYTHING on my chart.

No longer concentrating on hiden Divergence,
I'm in recovery mode and I need to trade accordingly.

I now only have the following on my 555 tick chart:
1. keltner channel
2. PriceActionSwing indicator, set to only show me a double top/double bottom
3. felton Momentum

I am looking to NIBBLE my way back to Breakeven at least (God Willing )

Entry: Only going with the trend; take a trade at a pullback to 90% of the middle or opposite keltner channel AND the PriceActionSwing indicator has marked the pullback with a DT or DB mark AND the felton momentum has stopped moving in the pullback direction AND has started moving in TREND direction, PLUS I will enter on the last 40-50 ticks of the trigger price bar ONLY if it is going in the trend direction!!!!

Folks, I am at the edge of sanity with this thing

All I want to achieve is One trade a week for approx $300
and after 5 years and 5000 chart hours I feel i was just on a merry-go-round.

Today, I nibbled a $100

Forgot how to post a screen shot of my little trade today, I have in in a word document.

Much heartfelt thanks to BIG MIKE, JEFF C., Sharky, LongBoat, Exiledgoblin, Fattails, and a mountain of other dedicated traders on this site of which would require 10 pages of space to thank!!!!

I don't want to junks whatever happens from this point on with negative karma, so any posts I make from now one, I will make at the other thread I started when I thought MARKET PROFILE was the TICKET to MY SUCCESS!

Its appropretely called "ten Thousand In education and Finally profitable"


Thank you all for your interest, kind words, and incredible advice!!!!


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  #199 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,135 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,388 given, 1,727 received

Bobby has moved on to "ten thousand in education and finally profitable thread".

But I thought this was just hilarious. Picture of the book for "the serious trader"
beside the trader bum who lost his money. Up on the main page side by side:
(maybe this is a tad too much picking on poor Bobby?)

On the other hand Bobby is not alone. Al Brooks said in his futures.io (formerly BMT) presentation June 29th about 10 minutes
into the webinar that he lost $10k while hiring a mentor to teach him trading. Then chucked all education and spent the next 10 years and 20000 hours working on his PA methods... Mentoring can be expensive. Someone recommended to me for Sheridan mentoring via CBOE.com on how to adjust option spreads which costs $4k to $6k
for a mentoring package. Preston James group had a different person call me every other month offering mentoring "courses" for $8k to $10k for "deluxe". Many vendor "partners" of Ninjatrader offer indicators and mentorships or training courses that run the price range from hundreds of dollars to a couple of thousands or more. Be careful, read reviews. glta

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  #200 (permalink)
 sagi 
melbourne
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Trading: es
 
Posts: 13 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 3 given, 1 received

I couldnt agree more in respect to "look within" I am living prove...
I have also spent quite an amount on education etc...
I have learnt much and was even making profits quadrupling my account...
HOWEVER I am still not consistent because of ME not my trading system...
I have the psychological problem of moving my stops back when an order goes
against me to prevent me being stopped out...BIG TIME MISTAKE...
and the adverse effect it has of course, you end up loosing more and more to the
extent I have wiped out my account several times...
Trading is not that difficult being discipled IS...!
I keep telling myself being stopped out is part of trading....and yet only
a few days ago I wiped it out yet again...

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