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Ten-thousand in Education and still not profitable!
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Ten-thousand in Education and still not profitable!

  #171 (permalink)
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jstnbrg View Post

That being said, like the OP, I find it interesting that nobody in in this community has posted statements online. It can't be the time required or a general unwillingness to help others, because some members clearly are willing to invest a great deal of time providing other members with advice, code development, argumentation, etc. It is either privacy concerns, or that success is very rare. In my own case it is that while I am slightly profitable, my success trading online does not rise to the level of proof any reasonable person would require.

In the interest of helping shine a light on this subject, I'm starting a trading journal where I will post my p/l per contract. https://futures.io/trading-journals/8903-jstnbrgs-log.html

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #172 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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thatguy View Post
Lots of good stuff in your post, but also a few things that just don't add up and don't make sense.



This doesn't make sense. Neither your stop nor target is certain. All that is certain is that one of them will get hit. To reverse your logic, if your stop is 20 and target is 40 and the trade goes 19 against you, does this mean you actually risk less than 20? If it goes 20 against you, you lose 20. If it gains 40, you make 40. What it does in between, i.e. gaining 39 and reverse to stop you, or going against you 19 and reverse to hit your target is irrelevant to your risk:reward. That doesn't change.



Simply not true. Running simulations is not proof. And no offense, but I won't you believe you just because you say you did simulations. I have a system with the same stop and target and average around 60% profitable which contradict what you are saying.



Again, this is not proof that you need to move to an higher TF. This is true that percentage wise your commission will be lower percentage on larger targets, but this is not proof that you will be successfull only on 1 hour bars and above. This is your opinion. Not fact nor proof.

You also need to look at opportunity. Many trades on a small timeframe can result in more overall profits over a monthly basis than just a handful of trades a month on a larger timeframe.



What do you base this calculation on? How do you know that you will get stopped 10 times in a row before making a profit? Are you saying then that you cannot get a better than 1:1 Risk:Reward because no matter what you do, over a series of trades it will still equate to 1:1?

As I said, many good points in your post, but a few things I don't agree with.

You did not quite understand me. If your SL is 20 pips and TP 40 pips, your SL has a 66% chance to get hit and TP 33%. A break even, assuming there is no spread. You can remove spread in your simulator and try it. I targeted the way people think on the largest forex forums and that they are wrong. Things like averaging up when you are proven right make you profitable or certain signals that will let you hold onto your position a lill longer.

If you don't believe simulations that were done specifically for that reason, then I don't know what else I have to contribute.

By the way your last lines: you said "better" RR, and this is not the way I think. There are traders who don't use stoploss, their R:R is infinite they risk everything to gain 2%, but they are profitable, because they have found a niche where they can squeeze a couple of pips there and there. 1:5 is not better than 5:1. How is it better? Because you like the 1 before 5?

You are talking about your system that has 60% win rate but I never talked about systems. Trading with the trend with 1:1 R:R gives you a higher win rate for example. But Ive never talked about it...

One has to isolate things and then look at what gives you the edge. Like in physics, you remove the friction and do experiments in vacuum.

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  #173 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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jstnbrg View Post
I Personally I would much rather hire a trader with a 60% win/loss ratio who trades 10 times a day than one who trades 10 times a month. There is a reason why the casinos' most profitable game is the slot machine.

10 times a day. The broker will be the casino then, not you.

I have about 15 valid signals each month and my account doubles in about 4-5 months. I would never be able to do it on 5 minute time frame. Experience tells me that. I always have 5 minute chart open, but I don't take signals from it, it is just to monitor the trade. Signals are H1 most of the time (and higher).

Price is not dependent on time frames, bars only show price in its typical way. But higher TF indicators are smoother and have less fake outs. Switching from M5 to M15 should give you 3-4% higher win ratio (signals are better) with the same strategy, switching to H1 from M15 about 3%. You have 6% higher win ratio (the numbers come from one strategy I tested on different TFs, you can dispute them I don't care).

I've been trading only a couple of years, and most of you have been in this business ten or more times longer and I respect every of your words.

What OP is asking for is whether someone is profitable or not and my answer is that it is easy to be profitable. I give him clues what would make him profitable: like not to listen to most of the things on forum, maybe take less trades (by going to higher TF and let time act as filter to overtrading).

I just went EURUSD long at 1.3927 let's see how it goes. Target 1.4000


Last edited by ReaM; March 15th, 2011 at 11:20 AM.
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  #174 (permalink)
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ReaM View Post
You did not quite understand me. If your SL is 20 pips and TP 40 pips, your SL has a 66% chance to get hit and TP 33%. A break even, assuming there is no spread. You can remove spread in your simulator and try it. I targeted the way people think on the largest forex forums and that they are wrong. Things like averaging up when you are proven right make you profitable or certain signals that will let you hold onto your position a lill longer.

If you don't believe simulations that were done specifically for that reason, then I don't know what else I have to contribute.

Based on what you are saying here it that you never will have more winners than losers when your profit target is bigger than your stop loss and that you will always be a break even, unless you do something else like averaging up. This is simply not true and your similations are severely flawed.

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  #175 (permalink)
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ReaM View Post
10 times a day. The broker will be the casino then, not you.

I have about 15 valid signals each month and my account doubles in about 4-5 months. I would never be able to do it on 5 minute time frame. Experience tells me that. I always have 5 minute chart open, but I don't take signals from it, it is just to monitor the trade. Signals are H1 most of the time (and higher).

Price is not dependent on time frames, bars only show price in its typical way. But higher TF indicators are smoother and have less fake outs. Switching from M5 to M15 should give you 3-4% higher win ratio (signals are better) with the same strategy, switching to H1 from M15 about 3%. You have 6% higher win ratio (the numbers come from one strategy I tested on different TFs, you can dispute them I don't care).

I've been trading only a couple of years, and most of you have been in this business ten or more times longer and I respect every of your words.

What OP is asking for is whether someone is profitable or not and my answer is that it is easy to be profitable. I give him clues what would make him profitable: like not to listen to most of the things on forum, maybe take less trades (by going to higher TF and let time act as filter to overtrading)

I just went EURUSD long at 1.3927 let's see how it goes. Target 1.4000

Doubling your account every 4 to 5 months and being trading for a few years, means your account should be worth several millions by now and you can look forward to a billion soon. Congratulations on your success.

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  #176 (permalink)
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thatguy View Post
Based on what you are saying here it that you never will have more winners than losers when your profit target is bigger than your stop loss and that you will always be a break even, unless you do something else like averaging up. This is simply not true and your similations are severely flawed.

nope, I never said that the number of winner will never be bigger than losers when TP>SL.

Trading with the trend for example will do that, but again, I did not address that...

Any billionairs here who could give EU a little push? Just a little


Oh, nono, I am not a millionair, and I was not profitable from beginning on, so not there yet.
I've read too many stories, I know that when market changes, I will lose it all. For example when I look back at 2008 where I began, I still don't know how I would have traded there.
The luck will end and I might become poor once again, I am aware of that.

And if I have a little more luck, I will lower my risk over time so not to lose it all (currently 2% per trade). A billion has never been the goal. 10% a year on 1 mil is more than enough to me and I am not there yet and if I will, I will let you know...

EDIT:
Sorry I need to add, because it is of utter importance: Those who calculate fixed R:R are doomed to fail. It is just wrong. Look EURUSD spot today. I went short 1.3871, because I like to sleep a little longer. Open 5m chart to see the detail. I entered where it was still falling strong.

I went short
  • because my system told me to
  • I swore to take every valid signal
  • because I assumed EU might fall further.
Now the market gave me about 20 pips only before it headed back and turned into range. This is where I was proven wrong that I assumed EU will fall.

I closed my position with a small loss:

  • I was proven wrong that EU will continue falling
  • Average daily range was reached
  • the Pair went into bullish range (higher highs, higher lows)

Then a BUY signal came what is very rare on one single day (usually in ranging market) and I went long and currently +1.3% in profit on my account risking 2% targeting whatever the market gives me (I expect it to be around 1.4000). The market will fall into range and this is where I will look for a spike with good price to take profit. It might be way before 1.4000 so I just take my profits when it is time to.

I never think about RR at all. I just look at what market does and if EU continued falling there wouldve never been a buy signal and I wouldve reentered short.

I think what I write might help the OP, because I have no idea what he has been taught to do for 10 grand that he spent on education. I simply write how I think and how I make profit, and if it is any help I am happy.


Last edited by ReaM; March 15th, 2011 at 12:05 PM.
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  #177 (permalink)
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ReaM View Post

I've read too many stories, I know that when market changes, I will lose it all. For example when I look back at 2008 where I began, I still don't know how I would have traded there.
The luck will end and I might become poor once again, I am aware of that.

And if I have a little more luck, I will lower my risk over time so not to lose it all (currently 2% per trade). A billion has never been the goal. 10% a year on 1 mil is more than enough to me and I am not there yet and if I will, I will let you know...

A couple of comments both for you and for @thatguy. You will not necessarily lose it all when the market changes if being prepared for change is part of your business plan. I've had a rule for many years that if I have three consecutive losing trades, step back and take stock, maybe take the rest of the day off or at least enough time to evaluate what's going wrong, and the same if you have three consecutive losing days (take off at least one day and possibly more). Maybe after a string of n losing days, you trade in Sim until you're back on track. Also, you have to stick to that 2% rule: if you start to lose money, you have to cut your size appropriately to your reduced account size. I'm guessing you're doing well now because markets are trendy, and you're concerned about what happens when markets become less so. Try to find a mean reversion system that works in low volatility periods, or try to figure out now some other strategy appropriate to less volatile, trendy markets.

Concerning your account growth, I say, f_cking awesome! and keep it up. Ignore @thatguy's sarcasm, he's just never met someone who did what you are currently doing. I am someone who did exactly that: account growth at a geometric pace with a constant account size per unit traded. I started out trading 1 lots in the Municipal Bond pit with $5,000 in net worth and wound up being well enough capitalized to trade 1000 lots in the Five Year Note pit, although I rarely traded that large because the market wasn't liquid enough. I did trade 500 lots every day for a couple of years, however. It is possible, and I'm not the only one who has done it. Unlike most of the people on this forum, as someone who traded on the CBOT floor I was exposed to literally thousands of traders over a 25 year career. I've seen quite a few traders who grew their accounts that way. There will be bumps that slow your account growth (for me, it was a home addition followed by having a child followed by building a new home) but if you have a true edge over the market and are patient, there's no reason why you can't build a $10,000 account into millions. This is especially true if you are young and have few outside obligations, such as supporting a family. PM me if you have questions along the way. I have a lot of thoughts on how to conduct this sort of career and life. I've seen a lot.

I get the impression from your comments that you may be trading cash FX. While I don't have personal experience trading through FX dealers, be aware that their interests may not be aligned with yours. If they are taking the opposite side of your trades, are they making a fair market? If you use stops, might they attempt to trigger them? If liquidity breaks down, will they make you a market at all when you need it? This will become a bigger problem the larger you get. If you are not trading on a futures exchange, consider doing so.

10% on a million is an insufficient goal, both as a total level of income and as a return for trading. 100% on a million is more like it, and being able to retire and earn 5% low risk on $5-10 million is what you should be looking to do in the long run. Think big, but think patient.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #178 (permalink)
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ReaM View Post
10 times a day. The broker will be the casino then, not you.

I was responding to this earlier while trading but Firefox crashed on me and I lost the post. I was assuming a positive return including transaction costs. If your return is negative after transaction costs, then you should stop trading now. It's possible your broker is charging too much, especially if it's an FX dealer, see my previous post.

When the expected value of a bet is positive, the way to maximize returns is to make a long string of small bets relative to capital. That's why slot machines are the casinos' biggest revenue producers even though the casinos' edge is small (I think it's small in the slots, but I could be wrong). If the expected return of a bet is negative, the way to maximize expected value relative to your risk capital (other than not making the bet) is to make a large bet once. Odds are you will still lose money, but at least you have a chance of making money. In both scenarios, the more bets you make, the higher probability your revenue stream will converge to the expected return of the bet, and if the expected value is negative and you have finite capital, you will eventually lose all of your capital. I'm not by any means a stats whiz, I learned this in the book "Commodity Market Money Management" by Fred Gehm many years ago. He laid out the math better than I can, so I refer you to that source.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."

Last edited by jstnbrg; March 15th, 2011 at 07:40 PM. Reason: more complete response
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  #179 (permalink)
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Here you go. One full months statement. I only did one contract only at the time, one trade a day average. It was purely a tape reading method i was testing and I used to get in and out based on price ladder data and CD order flow transition. I don' like to scalp anymore, so i don't use this. I do use techniques i learned trading of the ladder to help time my entries when i try to catch bigger swings, thats my main method to trade. Less stress, very simple.Hope this helps.

I hope I also answered the other guys claim that said i never made a dime in this business, or i don't know anything about trading. Im the only one in the entire forum that posted an actual( not sim) pnl. I wiped out my order ID and other info that i think is important, so its not gonna hurt me to put this up. If he claims he's profitable, then i encourage him to show me a months statement. Just one single month.

I don't know how this is going to help you guys, but you wanted it, so here it is.

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  #180 (permalink)
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Actually, big mike is right. This isn't about a pissing contest. I don't want to see anybody's statement, because that will just lead to more arguments which i don't have time for. People wanted proof to see if its doable, so i provided proof. I don't want anything from anybody else. I think that this should put everything to rest about if it can be done or not. Also remember, I don't have a trading blog ,I'm not selling anything or promoting anything ( unlike most vendors), and im providing proof (unlike most vendors). I won't be tracking this thread anymore, so if anybody has a general question( please don't ask me personal information like account size... etc) then shoot a PM.

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