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Anyone use Daytradetowin and their attempts to hide the truth


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Anyone use Daytradetowin and their attempts to hide the truth

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  #21 (permalink)
Richard
Dallas TX/USA
 
 
Posts: 154 since Jun 2009
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Boonja View Post
I couldn't figure out why at the end of Sept I had 6 losing trades and only 3 winners.

I have no opinion of this particular method, but this part is important in a general sense. You can't figure it out any more than you can figure out why a coin will come up tails 6 times in a row sometimes. In some sense, that's what random means: you can't figure it out.

Whenever theoretical probability and reality come face to face, reality kicks theory in the nuts and runs away laughing. If the theoretical number is correct, then over time you can expect to converge on it with diminishing variance. In any short run, though, you can have incredibly painful "anomalies" (just like flipping a coin). And that's with any method, free, paid-for, or otherwise.

So, when you have a trading idea that you expect to work with high probability, you simply can't be swayed by small strings of results. Even with the coin toss, after a couple hundred trials, you can have 60% tails. It doesn't mean the coin is bad.

By the same token, you can look at a short run of results and it will look phenomenally good (like if you get heads 9 times out of 10). This is how you can advertise a worthless indicator without much trouble... you just show people the good runs and let them assume the rest. But it's also one of the reasons why supposedly "smart" backtesters fall down. If you consider the relatively small amount of data most retailers have available to backtest with, the average underdog backtesting trader is screwed before he/she starts. And they usually blame curve fitting! LOL

(not that curve fitting isn't another big problem)

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  #22 (permalink)
monkeypuzzle
Olympia, WA
 
 
Posts: 2 since Jan 2010
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Earlier this evening, I had my wallet out in preparation for buying the DayTradeToWin Ebook. I won't be a customer after all, but I am going to research the 'Opening Range Breakout' concept.

Thanks for the heads up...

Monkeypuzzle

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  #23 (permalink)
 David_R 
Legendary Market Wizard
San Jose, Ca
 
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I admit that I got suckered into buying the ebook, course, or whatever you want to call it. It is an opening range BO system, but he has modified it for days when price trends real hard and never comes back to the entry. Oddly enough he calls that the "chase the trade" trade. Something I need to not do. I don't trade the method, but did try a few times and made money. Of course its the long haul we need to be concerned about and not 1 or 2 trades or days. The 5 point stop in my opinion is crazy and that alone made me abandon the method. My advice to anyone contemplating buying the ebook or any method for that matter is to not do it. Everything anyone needs is here on futures.io (formerly BMT) and as Mike would say, "With in us".

David

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  #24 (permalink)
 Dragon 
Bellingham, WA
 
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I am not going to chase any trends thanks. If it doesn't pullback, forget it. This is something I have really been working on. I don't care if it moves 100 ticks. No way, not for me.

5 point stop? Really?!? I guess it would have to be that way if you are trading ORB's. Not for me.

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  #25 (permalink)
 zulutrader 
NY, NY
 
 
Posts: 9 since May 2010

Without a doubt, I'm at +32 points for this month of May so far using John Paul's ATO method and recently bought the Atlas too.

And obviously I'm not the only one doing well since his forum is full of his students and his webinars are always packed with satisifed traders.

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  #26 (permalink)
 timefreedom 
Indianapolis, IN USA
 
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*smile, chuckle*

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  #27 (permalink)
 Dragon 
Bellingham, WA
 
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zulutrader View Post
Without a doubt, I'm at +32 points for this month of May so far using John Paul's ATO method and recently bought the Atlas too.

And obviously I'm not the only one doing well since his forum is full of his students and his webinars are always packed with satisifed traders.

Start a journal and we will all welcome your progress as you go through this method. One of the coolest ways to evaluate a vendor's product to track your success with it as you trade it's signals in a journal. I would love to be proven wrong.

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  #28 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Dragon View Post
Start a journal and we will all welcome your progress as you go through this method. One of the coolest ways to evaluate a vendor's product to track your success with it as you trade it's signals in a journal. I would love to be proven wrong.


Well said Dragon....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #29 (permalink)
 YulinYao 
Washington Crossing, PA
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 6 since Jun 2010
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Would you please tell your setup win and lose %?

You use pre market hour and post market hour together is very interesting. As most people use the first 30 minutes range that would the range of the day for 1/3 chance. If we use first 60 minutes range, the chance as the day range is 60%, anf 80% if we use the first 90 minutes's range.

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  #30 (permalink)
 emini_Holy_Grail 
Dallas,TX
 
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I use OpenRangeBreakOut_SharkyPkg and dont see ES.
is there an updated version that has ES? or do I have wrong OR indicator?

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