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Trading the Jam way
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Trading the Jam way

  #101 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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What happened to this thread?

Hi Mike, everyone,

I was doing a google search on Jam the trader trying to get opinions on JAM, and I wound up being directed here. I am already a member so was happy to try to read any reviews but Im so far not seeing any people who are happy with his free teachings here or whatever services he charges for as he has stated openly he has a paid for service as well. Was he banned? Can anyone tell me if they made money following his free posts here or his paid for service on his site? Very strange I dont see any continuation here. Even if he was banned can someone tell em their opinion of JAM or his website?

thanx.

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  #102 (permalink)
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Marc V View Post
Hi Mike, everyone,

I was doing a google search on Jam the trader trying to get opinions on JAM, and I wound up being directed here. I am already a member so was happy to try to read any reviews but Im so far not seeing any people who are happy with his free teachings here or whatever services he charges for as he has stated openly he has a paid for service as well. Was he banned? Can anyone tell me if they made money following his free posts here or his paid for service on his site? Very strange I dont see any continuation here. Even if he was banned can someone tell em their opinion of JAM or his website?

thanx.

Marc,

I am getting the rules down from Big Mike, I will give back free and don't expect anything from you or anyone. When I teach I learn and that is very valuable for me. With Big Mike's permission I will start teaching but do not want to cross any lines of self promotion.

JAM


Last edited by JamTheTrader; January 9th, 2012 at 08:02 PM.
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Bar Types


All right guys, I am going to start teaching again. The first topic that I will start with is bar types. Please feel free to step in and join as well as add any bar types that you feel are relevant. After Bar types we will move on to
  • · Gann Pivot Analysis (helps with trend and chop determination)
  • · Chart Patterns
  • · Entry Techniques
  • · Stop loss techniques
  • · building a trading plan
  • · And whatever else may help

You will not need any special indicators for these lessons. You simply need time in front of the screen, a solid profitable trading plan that you can follow and the ability to humble yourself very quickly

One quick note, there are thousands of ways to enter the market and many many trading systems, which will all go through draw downs. It is up to you to stop chasing the holy grail and embrace a system, learn its strengths and weaknesses and trade. Moving from room to room or forum to forum looking for that "someone" who will make you a trader is a losing proposition. If you are not willing to step up and take responsibility for your actions then you should not be trading period. Remember at the end of the day it is you, for you, about you, and only you when it comes to trading. Nobody on the other side gives a rats a** whether you win or lose!

JAM

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Chart types that I use most frequently


We will start with the bar types that I use most frequently first. Then add a couple more as time permits

I use mainly 3 types of bars

  • Tick Charts
  • Range Charts
  • Renko Charts
Tick Charts
Tick charts form a new price bar (or candlestick, line, etc.) every time a specific number of trades are completed. Popular numbers of ticks are 89 ticks, 144 ticks, and 233 ticks, which are all short term timeframes.
As tick based charts only form new bars when there have been enough trades, they adjust to the market, forming bars less often when the market is moving slowly. Some day traders believe that this gives tick charts an advantage over time charts, myself being one of them.

Range Bar Charts
Range charts form a new price bar (or candlestick, line, etc.) every time the price has moved a specific distance vertically. Popular short term price ranges are 5 ticks, 8 ticks and 13 ticks, and popular long term price ranges are 21 ticks, and 34 ticks.
As price range based charts only make new bars when there has been enough price movement, they adjust to the market, making bars less often when the market is stuck in a small range (i.e. not moving). Some day traders believe that this gives range charts an advantage over time charts, myself being one of them. Price range charts appear different from other types of charts, because each bar (or candlestick, line, etc.) has the same range (high - low), and therefore has the same size when displayed on a chart.

Renko
Bar Charts
Renko charts have a pre-determined "Brick Size" that is used to determine when new bricks are added to the chart. If prices move more than the Brick Size above the top (or below the bottom) of the last brick on the chart, a new brick is added in the next chart column. Hollow bricks are added if prices are rising. Solid bricks are added if prices arefalling. Only one type of brick can be added per time period, hollow or solid. Bricks are always with their corners touching and no more than one brick may occupy eachchart column.
It is important to note that prices may exceed the top (or bottom) of the current brick. Again, new bricks are only added when prices completely "fill" the brick. For example, for a 5-point chart, if prices rise from 49 to 54, the hollow brick that goes from 40 to 50 is added to the chart BUT the hollow brick that goes from 50 to 55 is not drawn. The Renko chart will give the impression that prices stopped at 50. It is also important to remember that Renko charts may not change for several time periods. Prices have to rise or fall "significantly" in order for bricks to be added.

Volume
Volume charts form a new price bar (or candlestick, line, etc.) every time a specific number of contracts have been traded. This is different from tick charts because a single trade can consist of several contracts. For example, a single trade for 10 contracts would be 1 tick on a tick chart, but would be 10 contracts on a volume chart.
Popular volume charts are 500 contracts and 1000 contracts, but any number of contracts might be suitable depending upon the market being traded. Volume charts also adjust to the market, and make price bars less often when the market is moving slowly, as there are less contracts being traded.



Last edited by JamTheTrader; January 10th, 2012 at 03:19 PM.
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Gann Swing Analysis

The next important topic will be on Gann Swing Analysis as I believe this is all you need to determine market structure.

Choppy Market
A choppy market is defined as a market without any clear direction. Choppy markets can present themselves after an extended bull or bear market has been in place. When identifying choppy
markets, a trader must first locate the highest high and lowest low over a number of sessions. These two swing points will give you your range. The next thing to look for is how well the market
trades within this given range. If the market puts up little fight when attempting to break through support or resistance, odds are the market is in a choppy period.

Change Your Mindset
Traders must change their mindsets in a choppy market. Many day traders in the late 90’s had grown accustomed to 25% gains intra-day. This of course changed as the market environment shifted
from boom to bust. Hence, traders should not get greedy and will have to adhere to the rule that ”small gains equals big profits”.

Gann Swing Analysis is one of my favorite techniques to help determine market direction and when the market is not in a direction. While Gann Swing Analysis is not new, I believe the way that we use it for staying out of chop is. Lets get to the basics of Gann Swing Analysis and then we will look at our interpretation of chop using this tool.

We will start by defining Gann Swing Analysis and its forms

There are 4 types of basic
  • UpSwing
  • DownSwing
  • UpTrend
  • DownTrend


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Upswing: From Down to Up.
The swing direction can only change to up if the market makes two consecutive highs.
Looking at the figure above, you can see that bar number 1's high is the first consecutive
high, and the bar number 2
is the second consecutive high. The placement of the lows is
not
important.


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Downswing: From Up to Down.
The downswing direction can change to down only if the market makes two
consecutive lower lows. Looking at the
figure to the above, you can see that
bar number 1's low
is the first consecutive low, and the bar number 2 is the
second consecutive low. The placement
of the highs is not important.


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UPTREND: Trend Change from Down to Up.
To change from a downtrend to an uptrend, the trend must have been down,
as indicted by the magenta line.
A peak is formed by an upswing (1) followed
by a down swing.
If this peak is passed on the upside, the trend changes from
down to up.


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DOWNTREND: Trend Change from Up to Down.
To change from an uptrend to a downtrend, the trend must have been up,
as indicted by the solid line. A valley is formed (1) by a downswing
followed by an upswing. If this valley is passed on the downside the
trend changes from up to down.

Defining your Trend:
Defining your trend using pivot points is one of the easiest and
most effective ways of trend determination. With this method,
you do not have a need for any indicators. In the example below,
you will notice that we have higher high pivots and higher low
pivots denoting an uptrend.

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In the example below, you will notice that we have lower high
pivots and lower low pivots denoting a downtrend.

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Using Gann swing to determine trend and possible trend change is only one
way to use them. In fact, Gann Swing analysis can be very helpful in
determining chop.

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Notice in the figure above, we have Gann swings going in and out of each
other denoting a sideways choppy market. As a trader we have two choices
here, stay out, or scalp. In my experience, scalping is a very difficult endeavor
and one that on this side of the computer, we are not well equipped to play.
I would prefer to go for the easy money and stay out of chop. Remember,
you do not have to catch every move, let the markets come to you.


Last edited by JamTheTrader; January 10th, 2012 at 04:01 PM.
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  #106 (permalink)
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Importance of news

In this next section, I am going to teach on the importance of news as a catalyst to drive market action.
Importance of News
It's not enough to only know technical analysis when you trade. It's just as important to know what makes the market move.

Behind every major market move, there is a fundamental force behind it. This force is called the news!

To understand the importance of the news, imagine this scenario.
Let's say, on your nightly news, there is a report that the biggest software company that you have stock with just filed bankruptcy.
What's the first thing you would do? How would your perception of this company change? How do you think other people's perceptions of this company would change?
The obvious reaction would be that you would immediately sell off your shares. In fact, this is probably what just about everyone else who had any stake in that company would do.

The fact is that news affects the way we perceive and act on our trading decisions. It's no different when it comes to trading futures and currencies.


Why Trade the News
The simple answer to that question is "To make more money!"
But in all seriousness, as we learned in the previous section, news is a very important part to the market because it has the potential to make it move!

When news comes out, especially important news that everyone is watching, you can almost expect to see some major movement. Your goal as a trader is to get on the right side of the move, but the fact that you know the market will most likely move somewhere makes it an opportunity definitely worth looking at.

Dangers of trading the news
As with any trading strategy, there are always possible dangers that you should be aware of.

Here are some of those dangers:
Because the market is very volatile during important news events, spreads and fills can be wide and difficult to get. This increases trading costs and could hurt your bottom line.

You could also get "locked out" which means that your trade could be executed at the right time but may not show up in your trading station for a few minutes. Obviously this is bad for you because you won't be able to make any adjustments if the trade moves against you!
Imagine thinking you didn't get triggered, so you try to enter at market... then you realize that your original ordered got triggered! You'd be risking twice as much now!



Economic Indicators
It is an amazing process that happens each morning that major statistics are to be released in the US. A group of global reporters go into a dingy government building with orange plastic chairs, this room and time is referred to as “lockdown”. All communication with the outside world is now shut off, no cell phones, lap tops are checked to make sure no connection is available to the outside world. Clocks are set to match the atomic time. Why such tight secrecy? Because in the next few seconds these journalists will be the first to lay their eyes on the country's most sensitive economic data. Then 30 minutes before the rest of the world hears about the news, the reporters are briefed so they have time to be ready when the news is “officially released to the world”. 2 minutes before the news is released, the television reporters are told they can leave under escort to prepare for their live broadcast of the report. The remaining reporters and journalists in the room are told “Two minutes left”, then again “one minute left” they are allowed to open their telephone lines but not to transmit. With ten seconds to go, an official countdown begins, then the word everyone is waiting for “TRANSMIT” and all of the reporters simultaneously hit the enter keys on their computers to sent the information.




Employment Situation
Market sensitivity - High
What is it: The most eagerly awaited news on the economy. Are jobs being created? AKA Non Farm Payrolls and Non Farm Employment Change
Release time: 8:30 a.m. (ET); Generally announced on the first Friday of each month and covers the month just concluded.
Source: Bureau or Labor statistics, Department of Labor.
Revisions: Can be major. Revisions can go back two months with each release.

Why is it important?

This is the big one! No single economic indicator can jolt the market as much as the jobs report. Why? To begin with, the employment news is very timely. Second the report is rich in detail about the job market and household earnings, information that can help forecast future economic activity. Third, we are talking about the American worker and their well being. Wages and salaries from employment make up the main source of household income. The more workers earn, the more they buy and propel the economy forward.

How is it computed?

Household survey
It's from the household survey that we derive the widely reported unemployment rate. Each month the government contacts 60,000 homes, a population that included farm as well as non-farm workers, self employed, domestic helpers, and U.S. residents who commute to jobs in Canada and Mexico.
Weekly Claims
Market sensitivity - High
What is it? Tracks new filings for unemployment insurance benefits.
Release time: 8:30 a.m. (ET) every Thursday; covers the week ending the previous Saturday.
Source: Employment and Training Administration , Department of Labor.
Revisions: Minor

Why is it important?
Experts have paid closer attention to this indicator even though it has been around since 1967. Improved monitoring by the labor department has made the series more accurate in gauging labor market conditions. The main appeal is its timeliness. Figures on new filings for unemployment benefits are released every week and are based on actual reports from state agencies around the country. As a result, analysts view this statistic as a good coincident indicator, meaning it accurately reflects what is presently going on in the economy. However, its greatest value is how first time claims for unemployment insurance can influence future economic activity. If a large number of people are losing their jobs every week and applying for unemployment compensation, this will eventually dampen consumer spirits, slash their spending, and cause business to pare back spending. For this reason, the weekly claims report for unemployment benefits is one of the components in the forward-looking index of leading economic indicators.

How is it computed?
Every state including the District of Columbia, offers jobless insurance programs that must conform set down by federal law. The states count all first time filers for a given week ending on Saturday and then transmit the data to the Labor Department in Washington, which releases the figures to the public the following Thursday. Information on “insured unemployment” –m that is, the total number of unemployed currently receiving benefits is published with a two-week lag.



ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Market Sensitivity: High
What it is: A new and timely report that can serve as a preview of the government's monthly employment change.
Release Time: 8:15 a.m. (ET); published just two days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out the Employment Situation report.
Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) and Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC.
Revisions: Each release will contain minor revisions in payroll numbers for just the prior month.

Why is it important?
For space scientists, the ultimate goal is to find life elsewhere in the universe. For biblical archeologists, the supreme achievement may be to recover the Ark of the Covenant. For traders, the great aspiration is nothing less than to accurately predict monthly employment numbers by the bureau of Labor Statistics. Money managers have for years been scrambling to devise a statistical measure that accurately forecasts the governments jobs report. The endeavor has proven to be quite difficult. Well, now there is a measure that is proving to be a very good prelude to Fridays Payroll report.

How is it computed?
The manner in which the ADP National Employment Report is put together has intrigued the financial markets. ADP processes payrolls for more than 500,000 firms, spanning many different industries across the country. For its ADP National Report, however, the firm takes a sample payroll of about 350,000 private, non-farm companies that cover some 20 million workers. (In contrast, the BLS attempts to survey 400,000 establishments each month, representing roughly 50 million employees.) ADP then collects payroll information on those companies on a weekly basis, strips out all information that identifies these companies to maintain client confidentiality, and hands the data to Macroeconomic Advisers. Economists are focused specifically on the payroll data that includes the 12th of each month-the same week BLS carries out its survey. Experts from Macroeconomic Advisers crunch the numbers to correct for volatility and seasonal adjustments and then sort the job figures by key categories-total, good versus services, company size, and employment in manufacturing.

Bt tapping ADP’s wealth of payroll information and replicating some methods used by the government, the giant payroll firm and Macroeconomics Advisers believe they have come up with a jobs report that should closely correlate with the BLS’s “final” (net of revisions) figures for private, non-farm payrolls each month.



Personal Income and Spending
Market Sensitivity: High
What it is: Records the income Americans receive, how much they spend, and what they save.
Release Time: 8:30 a.m. (ET); data is made public four weeks after the end of the reported month.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce.
Revisions: After the initial release, data on income, spending, and savings undergoes revisions for the next several months as more complete information comes in.

Why is it important?
Consumers rule the economy, plain and simple. without their active participation, business activity would quickly come to a standstill. Consumer expenditures are the main driving force of sales, imports, factory output, business and investments, and job growth in the U.S. But to be able to spend, people need a reliable stream of income. As long as personal incomes rise at a healthy clip, so will spending. If income turns sluggish, consumers will curb their shopping.

Other News Events
While these are not the only news events to watch for they are some of the more important ones. You need to have a news source and watch for any news events that are high impact for the market you are trading. Personally, I use Forex Factory as my news provider and any events in red are the ones to watch out for. Here is a link to Forex Factory. Forex Factory

Source material is from "The Secrets of Economic Indicators" by Bernard Baumohl
I highly recommend this book as a part of your trading collection.

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  #107 (permalink)
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Tallahassee
 
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Looks good

Will have to follow along, thanks for the link.

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  #108 (permalink)
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Vouch for JAM the trader


Marc V View Post
Hi Mike, everyone,

I was doing a google search on Jam the trader trying to get opinions on JAM, and I wound up being directed here. I am already a member so was happy to try to read any reviews but Im so far not seeing any people who are happy with his free teachings here or whatever services he charges for as he has stated openly he has a paid for service as well. Was he banned? Can anyone tell me if they made money following his free posts here or his paid for service on his site? Very strange I dont see any continuation here. Even if he was banned can someone tell em their opinion of JAM or his website?

thanx.

One of the best ever evolving operations I've had an opportunity to be a part of Marc. He has a full service website that teaches discpline trading. Those guys make money. You should check it out when you get a chance. I would grab all the free advice here you can soak up. Much like myself he really likes what he is doing and enjoys sharing it with others....be thankful. Banned, that's pretty funny.

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  #109 (permalink)
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Juno Beach
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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JamTheTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 135 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 22 given, 116 received

KC,

I appreciate the Kudo's, but please redo your message. I do not want the promotion, just here to teach and get better myself. Please feel free to post and share some of your analysis, I have seen it and you have a lot to offer.

JAM

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  #110 (permalink)
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Juno Beach
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 135 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 22 given, 116 received

Higher Time Frames and Chart Patterns


In this next lesson we will spend some time going over chart pattern basics and will follow that up with Higher Time Frame analysis then Entry Techniques. We will look at some very easy to read chart patterns and keep the more complex ones out for now. It is my firm belief that one major reason that most traders fail, other than no plan, is a plan that is to complex to trade real time and real money with. It looks great when back testing, but you can not trade it real time because there are to many moving parts.

You need to understand market structure and what to look for on your higher time frame charts BEFORE taking any entries on your trading chart. Too many traders pick a set of rules start trading with no regard to what the higher time frame is doing and wonder why they get chewed up.

In my trading today, I look at many markets and choose what I am trading by my higher time frames. I dont care about what I miss on the smaller time frame I care about what I make. I refuse to fall in love with one market and could care less what market it is, as long as it bears a few good traits.

  • Good Liquidity
  • Reasonable Margins
  • Good volatility
JAM

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