The profits look great, if the profits are for real, what questions should I ask the vendor? If I say is this using real money, Im pretty sure there going to say "Yes".
I took a trial when it was free, and the fact it now isn't free tells me more about the system (and the developers' need for income), most of which I already surmised before running it in SIM.
Suffice it to say, the results posted on the website are purely hypothetical based on NT backtest results. I couldn't get close replicating them historically, let alone in realtime. Please note they are based on Range bars, which are not accurate on NT's backtest engine.
The latest marketing email claims a 2011 YTD profit of $27,129.50 profit. Fantastic by any measure, right? Why, then, are they asking $50 for a trial and a measly $249/month for this ATM?
The following user says Thank You to Tundi for this post:
I too was/am very interested in their Breakout autotraders. So yesterday I took the chance and got the trial.
First, I ran into a problem: Their indicators and strategies are already for the new NinjaTrader .3 beta version, and as I own other stuff I had to create a virtual machine (on my Mac), with the newest NinjaTrader on it. Then importing the package was no problem. Support of SMD was very friendly, they also gave me their Skype-ID, so if I run into problems I am welcome to chat with them via Skype: Nice! At least one of the SMD-guys also sit here in Germany, so if I really run into problems, that would help too!
Then today is the first day I run the strategies. There are 4 strategies available: For 6E, EMD, CL and FDAX. I setup four charts with the strategies in their standard settings. Important is that you ready the instructions about settup up the charts carefully, this is mandatory (as I have seen with backtesting). Then in the morning (CET, Germany) I let the strategies loose :-) Again: I use the standard setting, also for trading times, no change is applied, I simply attached them to the charts and turned them active.
I was away for the last 5 hours, but I wished I had run them with my live account :-) :-)
The FDAX-strategy is up $212.50, and the 6E is up $1,025.00.... :-) Nice start for a first day!
So lets see how the EMD and the CL will perform later!
I really have to say that I am VERY impressed, ok, I know, its the first day, but anyway: It looks EXTREMELY promising :-)
I will post the remaining results for today and Fridays results tomorrow then.
Many greetings from Germany,
Oliver
The following user says Thank You to ostadler for this post:
As for the post of Dionysus: From where do you know that those guys don't trade their own system? Do you know them? And more important: Why do you think that such a strategy won't work in the long term (given a proper money management)?
Oliver - it clearly states on their site that they do not trade the system and that all results are simulated.
Of course, many people dream of finding an automated system like this which is why they will pay hundreds of dollars a month. The value of such a system would be millions of dollars a month and the owner of such a system would not need to rent it out for paltry sums as they'd be making millions too.
The search for a working automated system that takes directional positions and can be left to its own devices each day is a little like the search for a perpetual motion machine.
The question shouldn't be "why does Pete think this can't work" the question should be "why does Oliver think it would?". Seriously - what leads you to believe that this is possible? Hope?
hello, I know someone that tried this product some weeks back...they ran it live with their broker and it kept losing money, which was pretty much different than their stated results on the same backtested data feed. So I really wonder how the Live results can be so different from the backtested results.
They would never run this program live again by the way.
I think we need to discount if not dismiss posts by new futures.io (formerly BMT) members (who have a very low post count) who tout and praise the SMD system. Here's why. SMD has now linked this thread into its email marketing. Attached is the copy of a SMD email received yesterday evening. Notice the link to this thread.
Clearly, they aren't doing this to draw potential subscribers to a place where their products will receive negative reviews; after all, that's not good marketing or business. So don't be surprised if more new one or two post members come here to either defend or simply rave about SMD. They may very well be shills for the vendor.
The following 4 users say Thank You to Tundi for this post:
sorry if I sounded like I am in any way connected to SMD-trading. Thats clearly not the case!
My name is Oliver Stadler, and I am a veterinary from Munich, Germany (google me if you like). Trading is purely a "hobby" of me (which btw. does not mean that I dont try making money with it).
I tried some automated systems for NinjaTrader before, but SMD-autotraders are the first I can see some success even without heavily finetuning. Last friday I ran them again (CL, FDAX and 6E in Sim, EMD in my live account for three hours while beeing monitored). On the EMD-script the first trade was a looser (because the trailing stop was adjusting too fast), but the second was a winner, leaving me with a small win.
I have just arrived in Las Vegas for a seven day holiday, but believe me I will stay with the SMD-autotraders for now and use at least the first month to check them out further.
Last week, their CL script got its butt handed to it and the vendor has sent out email instructing clients to not trade it until further notice. SMD is a breakout system--and CL is a market where the pros suck in the breakout players and then reverse the market on them. I think this is what sharky was touching on.
Also, there is a new optimized version (the 6th!) for the other scripts as well. I think these scripts are now over-optimized (curve fitted) which is not a good thing.
This thread caught my eye since I have been following the SMD website for awhile now. And, in fact, I found this thread through the vendor's marketing email just as mentioned in this thread. I have not traded this system yet nor am I affiliated with this website but I take issue with some of the comments here.
First, I cannot find on the vendor's website any statement that they do not trade the system. The only thing I can think of is that you are misinterpreting their disclaimer.
Second, the lease fee for this particular system is in line with many similar type systems - that is, many cost in the neighborhood of a few hundred dollars per month. I'm not sure why you think such a system would be worth millions of dollars.
Third, computer-driven, algorithmic systems are not new. It is a fact that such systems have been around for quite some time and some or many have been very profitable. Just to give one example - it is quite well known that John Henry, the owner of the Boston Red Sox, made a fortune from mechanical systems.
Finally, I still cannot "vouch" for the SMD product - I can just continue to evaluate like everyone else but to come out and dismiss the product simply because it is computer driven is just unacceptable.
The disclaimer clearly states that all results published on their site are hypothetical, that they are simulated and not the results of trading real money. How would you propose I interpret this?
The simple fact is that all systems of this type are for the naive. None of them work. The fact that one company selling dubious systems to the gullible charges a similar rate to another does not make them work. The fact is thats the pricing is directly related to what the common man in the street can afford to pay. Most people can afford to pay $300-$500 a month. Get to $3000 a month and you will find very few wise people that can afford this and would actually fall for the scam. Price elasticity is what drives the price of these systems. The price is simply a price that fools will pay to be proved fools.
Now - let's say you had a hedge fund with $2 billion in it. How much do you think they would pay for a system that would make them 10% per month? A bit more than $300, right?
So why is the pricing of this system aimed at fools and not hedge funds with $2 billion? Perhaps an altruistic streak on the back of the vendor? Or perhaps the hedge fund would only buy a system that actually worked...
Correct - but how many of these are placing directional bets based on technical analysis? Why do you think that so much money has gone into co-location infrastrucure for HFT systems? Why are they front running pennies when they can just use technical analysis to predict the future direction of the market? Well - quite simply - the world of algos is not what you think it is. It is a world of arbitrage, not MA crossovers.
You don't actually know what the algos do, so you don't know how ludicrous this argument is.
Cool. Whilst you are at it - be sure to check the end of every rainbow you see because there might be a pot of gold at the end of one of them.
On the other hand, you could stop wasting money on pipe dreams and actually take responsibility for you own trading, then you will get somewhere.
I just ordered the Breakout indicator from SMD, it cost $14.99 for a week, so what the heck! Firstly, it is not the same as Dorian Channel.
I overlayed it with my existing charts and it follows the Swing Indicator pretty clostly, although the swing indicator give you more buy/sell options. If you only followed the indicators this morning CL, from 8:00CST to 9)CST, it would have given you 6 buy/sell indicators. Mostly all winners of 2-20 ticks. One would have been a big reversal if you did not have a stop in quickly.
I always enjoy listemting to new ideas, and sales people cause I've beed a sales guy all my life and a good salesman enjoys a good sales presentation!
I will add to this thread after 7 day trial is up...Houston Out.
Even you state that the pricing is directly related to what the common man can afford to pay. If you ask me, that makes perfect business sense. I guess you would rather see them charge $25K / month? I don't know. And your logic seems to be that since they are priced to the common man that somehow it means that none of them work. I'm not agreeing with your logic. You seem to think that if the systems really worked, then they would be selling at much higher prices - really? Then who would buy them? These systems are not an easy sell. The astute trader knows that these algos are risky and go through draw downs - not every one has the stomach for this.
Are there a lot of crappy algos out there? Of course! Let the buyer beware as they say. But I'm not ready to dismiss them all.
As far as hedge funds and marketing these systems to hedge funds, systems like SMD don't scale to the sort of profits that a $2 billion hedge fund is looking to make. So what if a given hedge fund makes $20K off SMD for the year - a hedge fund is on a completely different scale. Having said that, I have come across some "cross-over" systems that are marketed to hedge funds but price increases as volume increases.
Too much of the former and not enough of the latter in your thinking on this issue.
Many traders start off looking for automation. Fear and a certain amount of laziness are involved in this decision. Certainly, the decision is not made because their peers are making money this way.
The trading journey can only truly begin when you take responsibility for your trading decisions and you acknowledge that you need to make a decision in the face of uncertainty. People find this hard to tackly psychologically and that is why they go to scammers like this looking for absolution.
Whilst people are searching and implementing systems like this - they are also paying money for software and putting money into the market with their losses. The market needs people that buy and implement systems like this.
Systems like this simply don't work. People want to believe so much that they ask for no evidence, they don't seek other people making a living this way and they believe that someone will effectively sell them $10,000 for $300.
It would be nice to have a comment from Oliver, since now he should be using SMD Autotader for more than one month. Still using it with good results ? What are your comments and feedback ?
The first trade was a great winner hitting the target of 21 ticks exactly but for some weird reason the system let it be a huge loser
Total for the day
-$774
The following 2 users say Thank You to tamerrashdan for this post:
I tried this system last year....looks like the exact same donchian channel breakout method.....lost QUITE A BIT OF REAL MONEY........was not anything like what they said.
I tried their demo. It is dynamcSR with their own indicator called smd fast.
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