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I find OUTSIZED losses are account destroying. They are not only devastating to your account balance they are psychologically devastating! And that can be far worse especially since your MORE likely to do it again!
I have only one ABSOLUTE rule and its at least kept me from losing so much that I can't trade anymore and its NEVER moving my stop away from where I decided before the trade!
Also taking many small losses has another benefit in that it enables you to be able to think more objectively again once you exit each trade.
You are correct on all points, except I think when he looks at probability, he is also considering actual trades. And it does make sense. I said in a previous post that all traders have different objectives, so it is entirely possible that those on both sides of the trade can make money with their obectives and time frames.
Fear, greed, FOMO, all of that wrapped in one shitty package.
My strategy is simple....... price action, S/R levels, trend following.... a monkey could do it.
My fear of losing money or losing out on a trade.
OR more importantly my ADHD telling me I need to trade on impulse without even thinking about whether the setup is really good or not.
And this is what makes me a losing trader.
I'm working on it however, and I have enough determination to tell myself I will get through all of these psychological hurdles.
And if not I don't know... some people aren't meant to trade?
I'm not stupid.
But the market has eaten many intelligent people alive for the factors I've listed above.
Airsoftor, I can relate to your dilemma.
I suffered with that same insecurity until decided to "not place stop trails"
Instead, I chose the closest logical S/R level and placed my target a couple of ticks before it.
The reason for me to use Trail Stops was to "maximize" the profit in that run but, in deed, that only happened in a minority of cases. Most of the time my trade was taken out at the trailing stop, whether it was large or small after long painful waiting periods. Much aggravation was the certain outcome of that strategy; profit? not so much.
I also studied that had I targeted and earlier S/R level I would be about financially equal to be taken out with the pull back on the trailing stop and I would have avoided all the uncertainty and aggravation of being waiting on a trade that did not happened my way. So, I decided to get my "bird in hand" instead, and let the rest of the flock fly away by targeting closest S/R levels.
Best decision I ever made.
Yes, I make more trades than I would have made otherwise but my blood pressure is pretty much low level all the time. And, I finish the day green.
I share this just as food for thought. After all, this is what this venue is all about.
Different days and different answers and wish consistent problems..... would be simpler to seek solutions. One only.... emotions have too much power in trading futures.
Using various option chances, impatient for results to have a chance.
gary
For me it's over trading, I trade a PATs strategy and my goal is to try and wait for the one or two strongest set ups each day. However, in practice once I start watching the market rather than waiting for these set ups I tend to start micro analyzing the price action and forcing my trades onto the market rather than waiting for it to come to me.
I keep telling myself I need to be the hunter and not the prey - putting that to the test over the next two weeks with a Leeloo express evaluation.
I can't say I don't do that as well, but it's gotten a lot better once I started automating my setups. I still enter many of them manually, but the automation often chooses the setups.
Also, I have begun trading the Breakout of the 30 min opening range of the ES. That first trade is always automated, and it gives me more time to analyyze market conditions as to whether I want to trade long, short, or sideways the rest of the day.
And, I finish the day green.