@phantomtrader "In any case, if you can't test your ideas, you're wasting your time in this business."
Like you I like quantifiable edges as this fits my believe system, and keeps me going when thing gets rough. But other people trade more out more fundemental reasons which are less testable, but believe in these fundementals keeps them going.
There are many ways of making money in the markets. I like to think there is no one right way in trading.
Do you prefer scalping or intraday swing trade, or even daily swing trading? If you want to scalping, And want to learn orderflow, I recommend Kevin Toch’s one on one DOM trading mentoring, and Walter’s ttwatrader’s Bookmap master class. I can also recommend you good course for intraday or daily swing trading course, you can PM me for more details.
I am doing micros now learning that profit is profit and not just looking for a trade of 100's every time. A 20$ profit on a trade is good on a micro and would be good on a Emini. Say NQ or ES , those are the ones I like the best. MNQ and MGC would be my 2 that I would want to trade. I have tried moving averages and cant seem to get a solid pattern with them, the VWAP is confusing as i have found so many that say what works for them is not the same for others. The VWAP bounce seems to never work for me, it dont bounce and hits my SL. I think reading the charts would be the best, looking at what is happening and having a very good indication of what its going to do.
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You can use any system that has an edge for you.
The reason I suggested a mostly empty chart with just moving averages is because the exercise is to get screentime in the market of your choice. If you put moving averages on a chart you should understand their purpose. They are to show how extended from the 'average' price is. They give you and idea of the way the market moves above and below average and then returns. (rhythm).
I personally don't take trades from standard moving averages. My trading chart uses anchored VWAP mostly but I have at least one ema/sma on my charts.
Here is a chart I posted in a different thread.
I posted it to show how I was thinking short but the market was saying ??? You are going short when the market keeps bouncing from the 50. What are you thinking.
As you can see, the average shows the market is in a uptrend and shorting was not wise unless it was a scalp at the top of the rhythm waves. (there was more risk to be short)
It seems to me that indeed a good solid foundation is missing. As long as you don't have a good foundation all the trying will cost you till someday you may accidentally stumble across something which resonates with you.
So the question is where to get a good foundation? That's where someone with a lot of experience, call it a mentor, can help. Someone who studied the market for a long time and paid his dues. Someone who walk the talk. Preferable someone who has written down his knowledge so it can be studied. How do you know this person is a trader and not an educator without real successful experience? How do you know his methods work? You look at their track record.
For example Peter L. Brandt, trading commodity futures for the intermediate- & longer term. He runs his own hedge fund successfully since long and published his trading record in his book "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading".
Or Mark Minervini who won the US championship and is featured in Jack Schwager's Market Wizards together with Pit Bull Marty Schwartz, Linda Raschke and others.
Now Peter Brandt may not resonate with you because of the longer term trading and Mark Minervini not because he trades stocks. Because of these reasons I don't recommend them in particular for you. Nevertheless one will pick up valuable things from their books which one can use in developing one's own personal foundation and trading method. And that's what it's all about, a personal style in tune with one's temperament.
I will name a few "mentors" (with a real trading background, not educators or brokers) who will give you a good foundation for what I think is your preferred way of trading, that is intraday trading using chart reading / price action:
1. Linda Raschke, more than 40 years of experience with a consistent approach (foundation). Traded on the floor (verifiable). Focus on the LBR310 indicator. Watch her videos here on FIO and on YouTube. Search for "Professional Trading Techniques" by Linda Bradford Raschke pdf.
2. Richard Wyckoff developed a great foundation based on support and demand rules. He spent his whole life studying and describing the markets.
He left us with a great legacy (in the form of his books and a course) which, when studied, will make you aware of important eye opening (at least for me) aspects of trading like:
"There are those who think they are studying the market -- what all they are doing is studying what someone said about the market -- not what the market said about itself"
or
"Listen to what the market is saying about others, not what others are saying about the market"
This requires a lot of work & screen time (and the guts to take responsibility). How to analyze a market is one thing. To trade it is something completely different.
One can make a living by only trading springs and upthrusts (David Weis in "Trades About to Happen: A Modern Adaptation of the Wyckoff Method").
3. Bob Volman wrote "Forex Price Action Scalping: an in-depth look into the field of professional scalping" on chart reading with clearly defined setups and in-depth view on scalping & price action. He has no verified track record but wrote only two books and doesn't sell anything else so I regard him as a professional trader.
4. Lance Beggs (YourTradingCoach) offers a course with clearly designed setups. He writes a lot on different aspects of intraday trading on his blog. He has no verified track record but offers a clear, understandable and useful trading approach.
His setups are more or less described in the free e-book "Trading Decision Points" and in the corresponding blog "NiftyNirvana" (see e-books at the bottom). I think the setups in this free e-book can provide a consistent income when trained long enough and it suits one's personality.
At last there is this remarkable fellow under the name Verniman who calls out his ES trades in real time (verifiable but maybe sim). You can follow him every day via Twitter for $30 a month or for free via https://twitter.com/verniman (see blog link there). I think he is a good example of someone who trades his own developed specific method. Maybe difficult to replicate (that should not be the goal) but there is something to learn nevertheless (for example discipline).
Focus on one instrument only, be it MES or MNQ. No internet and no e-mail during trading. Trade live and analyze your trades thoroughly. Think about starting a journal here on FIO for feed back. Good luck.
-Mich
p.s. I am not affiliated with either one mentioned.
Last edited by Mich62; May 10th, 2020 at 11:02 AM.
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I highly recommend Randall Hudgens as a trading coach and mentor. He loves options but also trades futures. He teaches daytrading, but also swing trading and longer term trading. He is the real deal and also works with a trading mindset coach (who I also highly recommend.) You can see him on Twitter @stkoptioncoach or his website https://www.stockoptioncoach.com/. He is a great guy and the real deal.
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Along with what @DavidHP said, I think @kevinkdog should get you on the right path. Don't overthink this. You have two very successful traders offering up advice that you should stop, think and take it to heart.
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before any further real money trading, you ‘d better evaluate what kind of trader you are : your personal/mental strength/weakness, Long term/short preference. Large/small draw down tolerance. From that point : find/search most suitable indicator/signal and build up rule based method (for me it is automatic signal/trading in MultiChart, I develop my own signal). It really doesn’t matter what kind of system/indicator/signal you use, any methods have pros/cons (For the one I use, I always use program to go through all possible outcome in certain time frame to validate first). Trading is Just a game if you took that as a result of probability!
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It appears to me that your focus seems to be on making money rather than learning to trade. Imagine someone wanting to earn a living from tennis going on tour trying to win matches. They will fail miserably. Their focus should be on learning learning how to play tennis and getting fit, etc. Then after learning the process of playing tennis, they can start playing matches and they will lose at first. But all the time they will be learning and getting better at the process of playing tennis.
There are no low hanging fruit in trading any more. Every time you step on to the field you are going against professionals that have exemplary trading processes. Unless you are aligned with them....you will lose.
If I were you I would learn how to trade, which means developing a really good trading system. I think these are very difficult to do starting from scratch. So you need to find a suitable one that fits in with your ideas about trading (of which you seem to have some strong opinions) and then adapt it to your personality.
I would start here https://www.vantharp.com/ and go through all the free stuff of which they have a lot.
At the end of that process you will have a different idea of trading than you have now. It will also help you in your search for a suitable system.
You will also need to let go of all your opinions otherwise you will not find truth which is what you are missing.
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