Beware of system results based on market replay - Trading Reviews and Vendors | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Beware of system results based on market replay
Updated: Views / Replies:1,569 / 2
Created: by Jaguar52 Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Beware of system results based on market replay

  #1 (permalink)
 Vendor: protradered.blogspot.com 
NY + NY/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures- Rithmic
Favorite Futures: CL, 6E
 
Posts: 236 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 11 given, 1,267 received

Beware of system results based on market replay

There are a lot of chart pics and videos about system performance results floating around all over many vendor websites. Many of the reported replay results are phenomenal. It seems every video you see is a winner. For some magical reason the sensitivity setting was just perfect for that day, the money management was perfect for that day, and the results were just perfect for that day.

Funny though, the day before the results in replay were just as phenomenal, the money management perfect. even the chart time or bar size was perfect.

The most amazing thing is that on each day the settings for sensitivity were different. The range chart size was different. The target and stops were different but it was still the same instrument. Gee...how did the system know which sensitivity to use for each day, and how did it know to adjust the targets, and how did it know to change the range bar size? Intriguing questions. Simple honest answer is that the system did not make these decisions, the user (vendor) did. So, how did the user know? Simple honest answer is the user did not know. But Market Replay is a wonderful thing. With it you already know what kind of day is was, so all you need to do is adjust the sensitivity, adjust the targets, adjust the range bar chart size and viola! you have another perfect day.

Do not be so naive and gullible to believe that a system that has $1500 to $2000 winning days trading a 2 lot is a consistently real thing. It is a hindsight result, with a lot of adjusting gone into the settings to make it work perfectly. Also, do not ignore the part about the $500 intra day draw down? Remember you are trading a 2 lot. Do you think such a draw down is a realistic amount for the number of contracts you are trading? since that draw down is way over 2% of any reasonable 2 contract trading account. Ask yourself that if at 11am you are up $300, and then at 1:30 you are down $500, would you still be able to continue? Would you trust the market to give it all back to you, and get you back into profit when all you have to go by is hindsight results? So, unless you are a hindsight trader, market replay results are almost completely useless. I say almost, because it is good for study if you just set it to record and do not look at it beforehand.

What you need to know you will never know. You can not know in advance what kind of day it will be. You can guess. Or, you can have a stable consistent sensitivity setting, use a consistent range bar chart size time, use a consistent risk reward plan, and then run the system day in and day out and see how it performs.

Look for real time results posted in real time, the same day before any replay was possible. Or better yet, look for long term consistent results with the same instrument, same sensitivity settings, same range chart size, same risk reward plan. Then you can gauge the realistic potential, the realistic intra day draw down, and the realistic performance over time, in real time.

Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to Jaguar52 for this post:
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Favorite Futures: ES,TF,OIL
 
Posts: 5 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received


you are right most of these sits are making us fool

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Beware of system results based on market replay

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

July Journal Challenge w/$1100 in prizes from TopstepTrader

July
 

An Afternoon with FIO member Softsoap

Elite only

Battlestations: Show us your trading desks and win $750 in prizes

August
 

Extended Ask Me Anything w/Brett Steenbarger

Elite only

Prototyping Python Strategies (part 3) w/Ran Aroussi

Elite only

Brannigan Barrett w/Axia Futures

Elite only

Introduction to Phillip Capital futures brokerage services

Aug TBD

How Monte Carlo Analysis Can Help Your Trading w/Kevin Davey

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Market Based Stops sysot1t Psychology and Money Management 1 January 12th, 2011 11:15 AM
Market Replay iwannatoscript NinjaTrader 1 February 15th, 2010 07:25 PM
Market Replay keepdchange NinjaTrader 3 November 17th, 2009 04:16 PM
Please help me evaluate my system results sharp2be NinjaTrader Programming 6 November 17th, 2009 01:11 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:53 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-07-24 in 0.08 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.146.1.178