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Thanks for your input. Please post some charts when you get a chance to see how the slope works.
Are you using an indicator to determine slope? If what we are trying to achieve can be refined it will be helpful to everyone.
Entries don't seem to be an issue looking at charts that have been posted. The various filters and setting look promising.
Trade management is key. But there are many variables that come into play with TM. Every trader has their own variables.
It would be beneficial to all traders if TM could be developed for small 1-2 lot traders because if you can trade successfully as a small lot trader you can always add contracts to trade if you are large lot trader.
I always like to focus on helping small lot and new traders as much as possible so they don't have to waste money buying stuff that we all can get for free. Its just a matter of talking to other traders who have been thru trading development and knowing where to find the tools necessary to become a profitable trader. Just my 2cents. Suggestions,comments and complaints are always welcome.
Posting of all ideas, charts and other helpful information is always welcome.
TM will make or break any method.
IMO the unirenko charts lend themselves to getting in on the mini trends.
But you could equally look at a mean revesion approach and trade back to the ma when it is flat(ie price is choppy)
Or both...but the TM approach for each would be different.
One way to think of it:
If we stick with the ‘catch a mini trend’ goal then a trade needs to be given a bit of room to get away from entry without being stopped at BE prematurely. Then there needs to be some rules for exiting the trade, that allow for the possibility of holding for an outlier move. This is very challenging for learning traders for psychological reasons.
A variation of this, to help with the psych aspect, not necessarily to improve expectancy (which is really what it is all about), is to enter with 2 lots and take one off at around 1R then go to BE at around 2R....then hold the remaining lot for the possible runner. These are just numbers out of my head and some kind of rigorous backtesting needs to be done to decide on actual TM approach.
Of course there needs to conditions defined to go long, and to go short.
Best way to test these ideas, best way to backtest them
*Strategy Builder NT8. ..then use strategy analyzer ?
I would love to see someone do this.. a bit out of my league tho...at least the strat builder part.
*Can always forward test for block of say 50 trades then review as rules are refined. The trick here is to not change anything until 50 trades have been done to the exact same rule set. Things have to be as objective as possible.
Then keep doing 50 trade blocks until results confirm variable stability of some kind.
*Manual backtest. Get your rule set, a spread sheet, and carefully record each entry and exit price for about 200 trades
Pull out the stats..and go from there. Once you have decided on some parameters then test them out of sample..ie outside of the data you used to develop them. Then forward test to verify performance before going live.
*Other? Visual inspection of historic charts is certainly not a reliable way to arrive at trading parameters..too much confirmation bias gets in and this is almost impossible to avoid. So dont waste too much time with that.
Once the development work is done you should have an understanding of the likely performance characterisics, including the win/loss distribution of the method. Then when it is traded live, you can see if it is performing within statistical expectations or not. This is very important. We need to know if we have a few losses if it is just a normal drawdown...or if the system is not performing as expected.
Just some thoughts on possible next steps.
May this post is too broad for what you are attempting here?
If so I can remove it.
FYI. Avis trader uses w and m formations for entries with other filters to refine entries. Also The setting they use are for CL unirenko 6/6/18 with TM of; 16 tics initial, 30tics T1. 60tics T2 10 tic profit stop to BE.
