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EOT Automated System
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EOT Automated System

  #21 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.tradingstudies.com 
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: TF, ES, CL
 
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cunparis View Post
We have. I have one. Do I use it? No. Why? Doesn't work consistently.

For one they're often wrong. Second, they can split orders so they don't appear to be a big trader. They have different goals, timeframes, etc. On a daily someone sees a setup and buys 1000 contracts. He doesn't care that the market goes down 8 ticks in the next second. But for a scalper it's really important, cause he doesn't care what the market will do tomorrow.

if you use a volume splitter you assume:

1 - big traders are right
2 - they're trading like you

another example, they could be hedging a stock porfolio. They could be playing a spread, buying ES and selling something else.

Overall I couldn't find any edge there. Doesn't mean one doesn't exist.

Just my 2 cents:

Most data feed providers are stacking ticks in order to save bandwith.
Even CME itself (I believe CME only recently decided not to stck ticks any more)

Volume is very very important, but all these "volume splitters" does not make a sense at all.

You might see a "block of 100 es contracts at ask price" and think: oh well... someone
"big and smart" is buying and I am going to be a smart boy and go with the flow.

And there is a huge possibility, that 100 contracts at ask price were nothing else, but 100 trades (stacked by CME) made by "small dumb" traders and you are joining the "dumb crowd"

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  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
virginia
 
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roonius View Post
Just my 2 cents:

....
And there is a huge possibility, that 100 contracts at ask price were nothing else, but 100 trades (stacked by CME) made by "small dumb" traders and you are joining the "dumb crowd"

so back to the question which crowd is this?

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  #23 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.tradingstudies.com 
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cory View Post
so back to the question which crowd is this?


I don't care, but crowd is always dumb

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  #24 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
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roonius View Post
I don't care, but crowd is always dumb

the fine black line in panel 2 are trades bigger than 100 contracts. as you can see one could say it's helpful. I'm not using it to see if there's a big buyer or seller. I like it to identify if there's program buying or selling. that's what makes the market move fast in a short time. I'm looking for something better, but not there yet.

I guess sometimes it's good to be dumb.

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  #25 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.tradingstudies.com 
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Silvester17 View Post
the fine black line in panel 2 are trades bigger than 100 contracts. as you can see one could say it's helpful. I'm not using it to see if there's a big buyer or seller. I like it to identify if there's program buying or selling. that's what makes the market move fast in a short time. I'm looking for something better, but not there yet.

I guess sometimes it's good to be dumb.


My apologies - I did not mean to offend anyone.
My point is strictly that "large blocks" absolutely does not mean a SINGLE trade

It only tells you, that there is a pressure.
Your fine black line in panel 2 ABSOLUTELY does not mean "trades bigger than 100 contracts",
it only means that volume was 100 contracts or more from trades which occured at the same price and were at bid or at ask consequently within predetermined period of time.
It could be 100 single contract trades, or 1 trade of 100 contracts or 4 trades 25 contracts each.

In any case it shows buying or selling pressure and your indicator "predicted" the upmove.

On my chart sometimes Moving Averages crossover predicts that too.:yield:

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  #26 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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roonius View Post
My apologies - I did not mean to offend anyone.
My point is strictly that "large blocks" absolutely does not mean a SINGLE trade

It only tells you, that there is a pressure.
Your fine black line in panel 2 ABSOLUTELY does not mean "trades bigger than 100 contracts",
it only means that volume was 100 contracts or more from trades which occured at the same price and were at bid or at ask consequently within predetermined period of time.
It could be 100 single contract trades, or 1 trade of 100 contracts or 4 trades 25 contracts each.

In any case it shows buying or selling pressure and your indicator "predicted" the upmove.

On my chart sometimes Moving Averages crossover predicts that too.:yield:

sorry can't agree to that.

cme does not bundle trades together. on my chart those are "trades bigger than 100 contracts". checked it with time and sales. if it would be the way you say, it would be a much bigger value.

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  #27 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.tradingstudies.com 
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Silvester17 View Post
sorry can't agree to that.

cme does not bundle trades together. on my chart those are "trades bigger than 100 contracts". checked it with time and sales. if it would be the way you say, it would be a much bigger value.

What is time and sales? Same data from the same feed

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  #28 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Silvester17 View Post
sorry can't agree to that.

cme does not bundle trades together. on my chart those are "trades bigger than 100 contracts". checked it with time and sales. if it would be the way you say, it would be a much bigger value.

As of October 2, CME does bundle trades together. What roonius says is true. It is not possible to know if it was one trader or several. All we can know is x number of shares were traded at a specific price (bid or ask). That's it. But I think it's enough to be useful.

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  #29 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.tradingstudies.com 
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cunparis View Post
As of October 2, CME does bundle trades together. What roonius says is true. It is not possible to know if it was one trader or several. All we can know is x number of shares were traded at a specific price (bid or ask). That's it. But I think it's enough to be useful.

Nobody exactly knows, but I believe CME is more granular now.
here is a quote from eSignal officials:


Quoting 
As of Sunday 10/4, we are seeing a signifcant increase in the # of ticks being sent by the CME on contracts like ES. There was a change announced by the CME for last Sunday but the behavior change doesn't match the description in that announcement.

As an example, we compared a period of time from 9/29 vs 10/6 on ES #F. The overall volumes were within 10-20% of each other (indicating fairly similiar activity) but the amount of ticks on 10/6 was more than double what we saw on 9/29. We are in contact with the CME and will post further information this week.

This is mostly a heads-up for those that look closely at tick counts or use tick bars (200T for ex) and follow contracts like the e-mini. The aggregrate volumes match the CME's site so we don't believe there's any overall issue. It just appears that where they were combining trades in the past, they are now sending more granual precision.

More to come.

Thanks.


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  #30 (permalink)
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I'm putting the webinar available again. The indicators cost $233 monthly. you can also check my blog at fialhotrading.com

Keep up!

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