For anyone interested in Fibs on the price and time axis there is a webinar by Carolyn Boroden (fibonacci queen) in early Aug. I think Aug 7. Its $39.00. Not free, but reasonable. I'm not associated with her in any way. Just putting this out there for the fib fans. I've attended one of these and thought it had benefit.
Yes, you can get the books instead or as well. I have both of them myself, but sometimes seeing someone talk through the methodology is helpful. I found Carolyn's book to be very good as well. Its easy to read and she explains things clearly.
I don't know which book is better. Miner gets into Elliot wave albeit a simplified form. Personally, I think EW complicates things. I think the book is good and worth reading if you like fibs etc. I also felt that the book was geared towards the Dynamic Trader software even though he does mention indicators that can take the place of the DT Osc.
I've been considering getting a Kindle 2. I'd like to hear feedback from you guys if you own one, specifically the Kindle 2 (but even the first one), please reply.
How do you find the book availability to be? Specifically trading related books?
Found this on the www.harmonictrader.com Website. It is a book by Scott Carney, which he offers as a free download, so it is not an illegal copy. It has 300 pages, and I just read the first 200 in 10 minutes. The information content is not very dense. I might take some more time for the last 100 pages, as they present harmonic patterns, and I am interested in his views. In my opinion the book does not favorably compare with the books of Carolyn Boroden and Robert Miner.
Scott Carney has also recently published two books on Harmonic Trading with FT press, so it should not be crap.
Attached: PDF-File. I had to zip it, because it exceeds the allowed 20 MByte for PDF files.
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Certainly not miles better but close to identical. Seems that Mark Braun worked for Carolyn Boroden, who herself learned her trades from Robert C. Miner. Robert C. Miner is the original, and I think his work is superior, as he points out the importance of combining fibonacci methods with momentum trading.
I saw that Mark Braun uses the CCI as a supplementary tool. Makes sense.
Just to clarify something. The original post was regarding a webinar on Fibs on the Price and Time axis done in the way that Carolyn does it. It wasn't an endorsement regarding her trading room or her. It wasn't meant to start a debate as to who is better or whatever. Many methods work and the same methods fail. What works for some may not work for others. This was an inexpensive way to learn something that may be of interest. That's all.
David
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I went ahead and bought it at that price and will just download it on the PC until I get a Kindle. I am guessing that is a typo and is suppose to be $34.96...
David, I appreciate your pointing that out and I'm sorry if I have taken this thread off at a tangent, I just don't believe learning from a saleswoman is the best policy, most of her videos are concerned with trying to sell TTM stuff (as she is now owned by them) I didn't want anyone (newbies esp) getting sucked in by some one as genuine as a 20$ rolex made in asia.
Don't apologize. The thread so far has proved quite useful. I had not heard of Mark Braun and Scott Barney before, so this will give me some new ideas.
If somebody is running a trading room or a website, she probably is a saleswoman, so let it be. TradeTheMarkets has a flashy website, the services and indicators they sell are ways overpriced. But the book John Carter has written is a no-nonsense book, which is an excellent introduction to trading for beginners.
Marketing does not a-priori exclude substance. But again, we are adults, so let everybody decide whether it is worth listening to Carolyn or not.
yes, no need to apologize and I understand the concern of her relationship with TTM. I would have never suggested the webinar if I felt that what would be presented was a sales pitch or not useful. I didn't want to get into the garbage of the trading education business when I suggested the webinar. I was just putting something out there that I thought may be useful, helpful or of interest to some.
I don't benefit in any way shape or form by recommending her webinar. My only two purposes on futures.io (formerly BMT) forum is to help myself and to help others.
I think perception is a funny thing. I bought the Carter book, but felt different than fat tails did. I felt that there was some useful information in the book, but for the most part was just a way for Carter to get people interested in his indicators.
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Perception is indeed a funny thing. Maybe your perception changes, if we go into details.
Let us first have a closer look at Carter's book. Chapters 1 to 5 are about general trading rules, psychology, hardware and software, market mechanics, gauges for sentiment. Chapters 6 to 16 describe eleven different setups. Out of these only pivots (chapter 7), scalper (chapter 8) and squeeze plays (chapter 10) use indicators offered by TradeTheMarkets. Carter gives all details on the indicators and settings, so you can easily build your own squeeze indicator within a few minutes. Chapters 17 to 21 are again general information.
This is definitely not a commercial book!
Now look at the book of Robert C.Miner: He clearly advertizes his software package Dynamic Trader and the Detrended Oscillator (DTOSC) without disclosing how it works - a huge difference with Carter, who does not hide the details and settings. Carolyn Boroden's book also contains a full chapter "Using Dynamic Trader Time Projections Reports and Histograms".
Actually Carter's book compares to the books of Carolyn Boroden and Robert Miner like a virgin to a fancy lady.
Rassi is not entirely wrong talking about a sales woman. Who else would call herself Fibonacci Queen. I don't think that this is what Fibonacci had in mind, when writing his book "Liber Abaci", and that he'd rather not have that queen.
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That's exactly what I am doing all the time. Downloads just to preview.
-> If the book is good, I will purchase. I am not going to read 300 pages on my computer screen, and I do not print out 300 pages and then go to the next copy shop to get a binding.
-> If the book is bad, I delete the file.
Very easy and effective. Since I am doing this, my failure rate in purchasing books has gone close to zero.
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A few years ago before Carolyn went for the big money I spent some time in her room. Mark often hosted and I found him to be a better instructor. Carolyn was reasonable. She cut me a deal for the room, a fraction of what she charges now. She seemed a bit bored with trading. She used "FibTrader" then DTI, which is more expensive and complicated.
I didn't find Fibs very useful in the long run and have spoken to someone who has tested them over time, deciding that at least on their own, there is no edge in using them. If you can find a confluence of price support or resistance I would say that would give you a better edge.
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I have run some probability distributions on fibs. They give you a moderate edge. If you use confluence zones you can combine the smaller edges into larger edges. Just scan the chart for all sorts of lines including classic support and resistance zones (= 100% retracements), retracements, expansions, projections, measured moves.
The other way to apply fibs is to look at the 38% and 50% on a 60 minute chart (3-day-period) and the 76% on intraday charts for ES. These levels give you an edge. The 50% level over a 3-day-period /balance point) will also add a bullish or bearish note to the price action.
Examples: I trade TF, so the examples below are for TF. The first chart shows confluence zones, the second one the bullish bias show by the balance point with a fib retracement overlay. Note that the price action never stopped exactly at the 38% or the 50% line, but that these levels confirm the bullishness. Of course you can also use 37.5% (3/8) 50% (4/8) and 62.5% (5/8), etc. This would barely make a difference, but fibs are more fashionable.
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I'd echo Tomasito's experience above, "Mark often hosted and I found him to be a better instructor:". Anyone who has a fib interest I'd refer them to Mark's site and/or room before CB's.
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There is a big distinction between: 1. they didn't work for you, and 2. they don't work. Fibs have stood the test of time and are still an excellent tool in knowledgeable hands.
On the topic of Boroden - her webinars are simply teasers. Buy the book if you want to really learn her methods.
After months of having it. This book is not a book you want on kindle. Too many things you need to mark up and constantly reference. So far I would rank this as one of the best trading books around. Im curious why she discontinued her full time chat room, though. I think she now just has a newsletter service, right guys? Maybe she made so much money she doesnt want to trade all day. If you look at her, this woman is definitely a party person. Cute too. Hey, I make 2 or 3 million I dont know if I would want to be stuck in a chat room all day either. Anyway, buy her book in paper. Forget the trees this one time. -)
Guys, if you have read my past posts here and on other boards you know I am trying to make fibs my key analysis tool. I made a big mistake last month by not trying Carolyns daily newsletter service because 2 or 3 times a week she has been sending me posts in advance! And I havent seen her with a loser all month. Im not just talking Visa, Apple and other stocks but ES and GOLD futures as well. I instead got involved with a very "long to learn: harmonics trading method which is based a lot on the 2 step pattern which Carolyn loves anyway. It features Gartley, Butterfly patterns ,etc. Just follwing fib clusters was more fun but Im not doing too bad wirth this so I will keep you guys posted. Too bad cAROLYN doesnt have free trials in the room anymore. And whomever posted back in 2010 they werent that impressed with her, maybe she has really come into her own now. Well, if harmonic trading doesnt work for me, I an either going to be in her room or get her newsletter. Anyone else here working with Harmonic trade patterns or Carolyn Borodens work?
daytrader50
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First, it is pretty sad that my post was the last post on this thread....a year ago. Guess we can have people too interested in Harmonics or Fibs, at least in the context we were talking about it.
First off, IMHO, although fibs are used, there is no similarity between Scott Carneys harmonic setups "who made up that word harmonic for this system anyway?" Sells a lot of books. Second just because(and he denies it!) Mark Braun worked for Carolyn Boroden years ago is no telling who is the better trader. I would say that Mark sticks with SPY and DIA futures 80% with a bit of Forex analysis done as a courtesy more for his chat room members than anything else. When i was a paid for member, the guy was blazing. Same with Carolyn, could just be luck but everything she put out either never got triggered or hit its target. BOTH AMAZING TRADERS! Scott you can keep as you have no idea the work youll be doing to get these harmonics in line to find setups and so many times they dont trigger. And he gives no free trials away as last i checked.
I dont know what one poster was talking about Carolyn 'going for the big money". If that means she is being more commercial, she deserves it. Because she still gives a pick away every day! My frustration with all of the above is that when I try to see how I can make a living using either of their signals......they just dont trigger often enough or....waddle around for many days before hitting their tgt or going nowhere. Also Mark likes shorter time frames like the 15 min with the 3 min to confirm and I cant ever make a living on such short time frames. Carolyn however gives both. But what good does it do to sit in her chatroom when you havbe a day trade from the day before on, and it is not going to hit tgt or get stopped out that day in 100 yrs. So too much time wasted in both of their rooms. I wish they both had a bib scanner that could show us what stock or future is triggering NOW!
As for Rober Miner who Carolyn claims is her mentor, I wouldnt give you $150 let alone $1500 for his software that depends way, way too much on time analysis which i admit I dont understand hiow to put in in the chart and have no patience for it and nobody has proved it works. I was hoping by 2013 , a few peoplwe would tell us they are making a living or at least some money with Mark and Carolyn which for paid rooms, Id put them UP AGAINST ANYONE AND THEIR ROOM! Im just not seeing if doing figures on 22 different stocks or instruments isnt worse than actually going to a job. And if you havent read Carolyns only Fib Book...its the best $16-$20 I ever spent. Again, its soooooo complicated and I wish both her and Mark had a simple 2 page checklist. I respect them both.
Oh yes...show me one guy who is even excited about Miners $1500 software. I will bet anyone who buys it is so embarrassed to say so, they wont mention it. Thats just my opinion. I personally would love to start a Fib club or Fib Forum like Mike has here, but just with Fib trading. You all have to admit that Mark and Carolyns theory of having 3 fib numbers all line up within 1/2 inch of each other gives them a lot more strength than when taken alone.
Me personally, Im trying to use a co. called Ratio trading which specialized in taking trades that bounce of the .618. Imagine making your own system juts on that one bounce/action???? He too has a system too complicated for me!
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I am sure that the post could be helpful if you had taken some time to frame your thoughts.
Its so disjointed, I had to double check if Del Ray Beach was in the US.
Is Carolyn good but too expensive? Method has an edge or not? They are all different therefore not worth looking into?
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I have admitted I bought Miner's DT5 on the sticky "Admit what products have you spent on " thread.
Really nothing new which can't be done on NT. and it was old school software written for Windows 9x.
Doesn't pick the elliot waves either. One still has to pick the pivot points.
Fibs, Miner and Borodin style may have worked 15 years ago, but I hadn't seen any sign of consistent results today. Today's market has a lot more big money participants wise to the old multiple projections and multiple retracements that they can easily whiplash those retailers who are still trying to do so that way. A perfect 5 wave or even 3 wave is like an extinct species now. It's more like Fat Tails said, stick to a couple of fibs like 38% 68% on the longer time frame, and mainly 68% 100% on the short time frame. I do that with my choice of oscillators and MA's and it's the best fib success with those simple fib ratios I've ever had.
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i have been through most of her work and miners work too.. if i wanted to advance my fib. education i would go to e-mini addict.. i think you would save a lot of time.. you can get what you need with out spending tons of hours of study on stuff that will have very limited value..
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After 2 weeks of training and recording sections of NexGen T3, I was in complete sticker shock. I am going to purchase Ninja Trader and open an account at Mirus Futures. I think the only thing I am lacking is indicators. Does anyone have similar indicators …
Posting the same thing over and over. Fake
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fibonacci in trading is seriously one the dumbest things I have ever encountered in my life. They have stood the test of time because people are suckers when it comes to statistical analysis and easily fooled. Of course if you anchor yourself to these magical numbers they will seem like they have meaning.
If you are going to actual bet money with them you probably want to get a himalayan salt lamp to put on your desk so you are more in tune with "the force" and calm your mind down.
How can 12,000 positive reviews on amazon be wrong? It must work!
Distributions of what? Distributions for any market for all time? Distributions for any time series regardless of the generating process?
Or you mean distributions that fit what you were looking to find while ignoring evidence that did not?
Nonsense. I don't think this is testable to prove in any real sense that fib levels are better than random levels when talking about data generated by a non-ergodic, non-stationary dynamic system like markets.
I am surprised an inventive con artist hasn't used this fact to come up with their own "better" set of fib levels.
Just have to have a nice pseudo science name that lends itself to a narrative and you could make a ton of money selling such a product to suckers.
Even better, say you found the levels from training deep neural networks for good measure. "Deep Fibonacci Levels, on sale for $49.95 this month".
How about if price is attracted to Fib levels are there price levels that are unattractive and repel price in all times, all markets, all time series, all generating data process?
Or is that too ridiculous an idea? lol
I like your comment, as it shows that you are not following any religion. Definitely Fibonacci levels have no scientific foundation when it comes to trading. The fact that Fibonacci pattern are omnipresent in nature is linked to optimal space utilization. Another argument in favor of Fibonacci levels: Wave patterns that follow Fibonacci ratios would exhibit the same behavior as fractals, when comparing lower and higher timeframe waves. Nice idea, but not convincing, as non-linear systems do not care much about Fibonacci ratios and their potential suitability for developing self-containing fractals.
When Fibonacci levels provide a small edge, this can only explained by mass behavior. Traders love story telling (Fibonacci is a good story), pseudo-scientific concepts and all sorts of occult ideas (Gann was a numerologist, much worse than followers of the Fibonacci religion). A religion - as arbitrary as it may be - starts working as a self-fulfilling prophecy, once it has attracted a sufficiently large number of followers. The same is true for fads. A fad is a short-lived religion.
Trend following was the religion of the Nineties. The Turtles were followed by the Turtle Soup strategy. Fibonacci levels in trading are a little bit more long-lived. Also they come close to eights so that you can use them as a degree of latitude for navigating the markets.
If markets were completely non-stationary and non-ergodic, nobody could possibly trade them. Did ever come to your mind that mass behavior might impose temporary patterns? Or what you recommend to shut down this forum, because discussing trading concepts is a waste of time anyhow?
For deeper understanding of how this works, I would recommend the reading of Robert Axelrods "The Evolution of Cooperation". This book - which is not about markets - has much contributed to my understanding of how markets work.
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So fib levels work because there are so many people using them?
Come on. The amount of money being bet using fib levels is absolutely nothing in 2019 as % of all capital bet.
You dodge the question though as far as distributions of what. You said "I have run some probability distributions on fibs. They give you a moderate edge."
So you are saying then that fib levels have a property that a set of random levels do not. I was thinking about this after I posted the response driving around and I don't think this is testable. What are we even saying fib lines do exactly to start with to sample from and have a distribution of what? Is price attracted to them? Is price repelled by them? Does price bounce off them like a bouncing ball hitting a concrete floor? Then we would have to test whatever that is against random sets of retracement lines.
Then we are saying this works the same on monthly real estate prices in Chile, Corn futures data from 1985-1990 AND tick data of the cryptocurrency TRON? Every market displays this because of human psychology and crowd behavior no matter how different the market?
Nonstationary and non ergodic doesn't mean 100% random and unpredictable. A time series doesn't have to be stationary in order to trade it.
Actually, if markets were always stationary and ergodic we would not be able to trade because pricing then would be a simple statistical process. It is not a problem for trading, it is a problem though when talking about comparing a fib level to a random level variable and comparing two distributions across all time and all markets.
I will check out that book, it sounds interesting. To me "Sapiens" by Yuval Noah Harari explains much of what we are talking about here.
We cooperate in large numbers because of our ability to invent fictional narratives. Fib lines are just random lines with a nice backstory.
To me it is one of the most obvious examples of being fooled by randomness.
This discussion belongs to the past. It has been discussed at length on this forum. People are using tools which speak to them. It can be VWAP, Fibonacci retracement and extentions levels, Volume profile with its Low/High volume nodes or Pivot points and finally Moving average like the 50 EMA or 200EMA often mentionned to gauge price action.
Despite your arguments @centaurer people are making money using them because they worked on their price action reading skills. I would encourage you to look at Damian Castilla's youtube channel to educate yourself on how a profitable trader uses the Fibonnaci tool.
Profitability is not the litmus for a trading system or rule IMO.
You have to beat buy and hold or short and hold over the same time period or what is the point of trading? Trading off random lines and under performing a buy and hold strategy has no point. It is trivial to create profitable systems that enter at random, hold for a random or fixed length of time and exit then at some random time. You just have to run into the right data and market regime.
The fact someone has a youtube channel increases the probability to me they have no real signals.
I placed my first trade in 2004 and use to trade off pivots(more random arbitrary lines) for years. It is not as if I don't understand the other side of this.
Im not from the USA, Im not a USA citizen. I dont think the picture above is apporpriate and has nothing to do with the discussion. It can also be interpreted as crosshairs of a scope.
It's a picture of the president of the United States with the fib sequence this thread about fibs so I would say it is relevant... just because you don't agree with something doesn't mean it shouldn't be posted.
Crosshairs ?? Have out ever looked down a scope before ?? Because if yours looks like that your probably doing it wrong.
Dug through my github repos to find some old SICP exercises, this one is mostly "borrowed" I sure didn't come up with the mathematical derivation, and I didn't write any tests ><. Its a neat way to do the computation fast though.
I quite like this discussion! It demonstrates how we are all unique and bring different ideas, concepts, and personal beliefs to the market. Thus, I don't think we should bury it in the past, the market is always evolving and so are we!
Have you not seen this happen? I'm quite surprised! One interesting quirk I have found is if you plot out the pHOD/pLOD and set the retracements between those high/low levels (I wrote a simple python script to compute them and round them off to the nearest 0.25 tick for /ES for example), you might, from time to time, see an amusing phenomenon where price surges and then bounces off the "golden ratio" as if it were made of titanium.
All of it works and None of it works, that is one of the mysteries of trading.
Cheers!
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I was going to ask if that was LISP then seen the SICP mention. I tried to get through that book when I was in college but wasn't driven enough to get through it. I really wish I had.
The most interesting lines I ever plotted was a long time ago and I don't even remember what software it was. I had figured some pivots for a stock using a new method I found online then I couldn't believe how well they were working. Price bouncing right off and up then bouncing right down off the next level.
Then I realized I had typed in the wrong ticker and so I basically figured out levels for this stock using prices from a different stock.
I have done the same thing with a random number generator to pick out support and resistance/pivot lines as an exercise. Price bounces off those too just as nicely. Why? Because we haven't defined what "bounce" really means. You just ignore all the other levels and all the violations of your own level. I think it is a big part because of how good we are at visually matching something to a horizontal line.
IMO you can't draw a horizontal level that doesn't "work". No one ever defines what "bounce" or "work" means precisely enough to prove that the line doesn't "work".
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Myself, I can see them somewhat useful in the overall scheme of things, but I generally look for a confluence of factors and would not take a trade strictly based on a fib level.
Not to take away from the topic of discussion @centaurer, but since you're obviously a staunch opponent, I am legitimately interested in what you, personally, think works or outweighs the effectiveness of fibs in the market
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I want to test something. It's simple. Place some random lines on your chart prior to the day opening, and see if at the end of the day you feel like those lines were important (try to imagine they weren't random, but some expensive or complicated …
This doesn't prove fibs, etc., don't work, but it sets a fairly high bar. Not everything is actually a random line, but random lines can look very good in hindsight. But only there.
Maybe someone has some actual trading experience (not hindsight analysis of a chart) that will add to this discussion?
Bob.
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Well if my questionable experience counts for your definition of "actual experience"...
I plot them out every day to map out price areas between prior high-of-day/low-of-day to give myself context and frame-of-reference for where price has been and where it seems to be going. I also map out the extensions as well as stuff like Overnight high/low, prior close,etc. I see price behaving significantly around these fib-levels all the time, perhaps as a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy as someone else put it, or perhaps as sort of checkpoints along the way to more significant levels like yesterday's high or something. I get value out of them, others might not. just my 2 cents! Cheers!
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I would honestly say anything else you can think of as long as it is not Elliot wave theory.. I put fibs pretty much last along with Elliot wave.
For sure just hand drawn support and resistance lines or pivots. At least with pivots or hand drawn lines there is not this metaphysical ridiculousness involved. You don't con yourself into thinking they are anything more than they are. Just an on the fly messy calculation to filter out things because you can't take every trade.
I was actually thinking of your journal posts when I wrote this. I was not saying no one uses them, nor that they do or don't work; I was interested in getting some reports of what people are actually using.
I don't know one way or another about fibs, and I am pretty agnostic, in a friendly way, toward these and many of the "proportionality" or "ratio" ways of finding or measuring levels. So it's not that I have a problem with any of them in the abstract, it's just that I think it is much more important not to be abstract, but to focus on some real trading experience. Like yours.
What works is a lot more important than what does or does not have a good explanation abstractly. (Not that making sense abstractly is not a good thing either.... but I'll take results over explanations any day.)
By the way, I don't know if the self-fulfilling prophesy argument is what is actually going on -- that would imply that a lot of people are looking at those levels, which may or may not be true, but which is also kind of hard to check (how would you know how many traders are or are not? Do you take opinion polls? Would anyone tell you? )
As a practical matter, whatever works is what is important, and not everything that works for one trader will work as well for another, for whatever reason.
Bob.
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All of technical analysis, at it's best, is of the same value. ALL derivative of the same 6 data points. Open, High, Low, Close, Volume and Time. Almost all of it is misunderstood or misinterpreted by the vast majority of people that look at it.
That said, if a specific data point on a chart as a visual waypoint gives someone the illusion of edge or after actually trading the "hallucination" with real money, provides an individual with measurable edge....to think that would be universal in design or application is pure nonsense.
You either make money or you dont. How each individual arrives at that binary and certain outcome cognitively is as different as the grains of sand on a beach.
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my rantish edict was not directed at you or any specific person. Rather, it was general in nature. The posts in the thread say more about the posters than the actual topic...IMO, of course.
Also , sorry for the $H!T grammar, I need to eat.
Dan
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@bobwest we're totally on the same page, your post was great! All these posts are fantastic.
I originally had a bunch more I wrote for my earlier post from yesterday with the code, and I removed it because I still don't really feel 100% comfortable with pushing my opinions out there as they're not really tested over long periods of live-trading. But I felt the urge to share that I didn't really consider using them in any mystical sense.
As for the self-fulfilling prophecy, I don't have any hard stats so its up to subjective opinion, but I do often see range-extension which would imply higher-timeframe institutional traders driving price up/down to these fib-levels where support/resistance is met and absorption occurs and it seems pretty common. These levels could be significant for totally different reasons and that is valid, I'm ok with the very real possibility that I drew a significant line accidently and for all the wrong reasons
The big light-bulb moment for me came when I found out I could get a handle on market context in a way that I couldn't before because I was ignorant to a lot of things (still am). That is what matters to me, the precise %s not so much.
anyway that's enough of my hubris for now!
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