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Fibonacci Queen
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Fibonacci Queen

  #51 (permalink)
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AnyM View Post
Im not from the USA, Im not a USA citizen. I dont think the picture above is apporpriate and has nothing to do with the discussion. It can also be interpreted as crosshairs of a scope.



It's a picture of the president of the United States with the fib sequence this thread about fibs so I would say it is relevant... just because you don't agree with something doesn't mean it shouldn't be posted.

Crosshairs ?? Have out ever looked down a scope before ?? Because if yours looks like that your probably doing it wrong.

-P


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  #52 (permalink)
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MiniP View Post
then explain this...

fib's are not only good for trading but also good for saving the country haha

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-P

Haha! I don't use fibs. I prefer measured moves using the width of my cowlick!

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  #53 (permalink)
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LOL that's hilarious... now I need to figure out how to implement Tribs into my trading...

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Sorry for the off topic

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  #54 (permalink)
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Here is my fav use of fibs and trading. Wonderful market fiction.


I forget how obsessed I was with this movie 20 years ago.

In the real world I just find it intellectually offensive to believe you can model human behavior with 4 lines of code:

 
Code
                            
def fib(n):
    if 
2:
        return 
n
    
return fib(n-2) + fib(n-1


Last edited by centaurer; May 6th, 2019 at 06:39 PM.
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  #55 (permalink)
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@centaurer

Dug through my github repos to find some old SICP exercises, this one is mostly "borrowed" I sure didn't come up with the mathematical derivation, and I didn't write any tests ><. Its a neat way to do the computation fast though.

 
Code
;;
;; Exercise-1.19
;;
;; There is a clever algorithm for computing the Fibonacci numbers in a logarithmic
;; number of steps. Recall the transformation of the state variables 'a' and 'b' in
;; the fib-iter process of section 1.2.2: (a <- a+b) and (b <- a). Call this transformation 'T',
;; and observe that applying 'T' over and over again 'n' times, starting with 1 and 0, produces
;; the pair Fib(n+1) and Fib(n).
;; In other words, the Fibonacci numbers are produced by applying T^n, the nth power of the
;; transformation T, starting with the pair (1,0). Now consider T to be the special case of p = 0 and
;; q = 1 in a family of transformations Tpq, where Tpq transforms the pair (a, b) according to
;; (a <- bq + aq + ap) and (b <- bp + aq). Show that if we apply such a transformation Tpq twice,
;; the effect is the same as using a single transformation Tp'q' of the same form, and compute p' and q'
;; in terms of p and q.
;;
;; This gives us an explicit way to square these transformations, and thus we can compute T^n using
;; successive squaring, as in the fast-expt procedure. Put this all together to complete the following
;; procedure, which runs in a logarithmic number of steps:
;;
;; (define (fib n)
;;   (fib-iter 1 0 0 1 n))
;;
;; (define (fib-iter a b p q count)
;;   (cond ((= count 0) b)
;;         ((even? count)
;;          (fib-iter a
;;                    b
;;                    (??)    ; compute p'
;;                    (??)    ; compute q'
;;                    (/ count 2)))
;;         (else (fib-iter (+ (* b q) (* a q) (* a p))
;;                         (+ (* b p) (* a q))
;;                         p
;;                         q
;;                         (- count 1)))))
;;

;; ----------------------------------
;;
;; When transformation is applied two times and equations formed to be
;; the same for 1st and 2nd application it gets obvious that 
;;
;; p' = p^2 + q^2
;; q' = 2pq + q^
;;
;; @see http://www.kendyck.com/archives/2005/05/13/solution-to-sicp-exercise-119/
;;
;; when replaced the solution is following.
;;
(ns sicp.ch01 (:use clojure.test))

(defn fib
  [n]
  (defn fib-iter
    [a b p q cnt]
    (cond
      (zero? cnt) b
      (even? cnt) (fib-iter
                    a
                    b 
                    (+ (square p) (square q))
                    (+ (square q) (* 2 p q)) (dv cnt 2))
      :else (fib-iter 
              (+ (* b q) (* a q) (* a p)) 
              (+ (* b p) (* a q)) p q (dec cnt))))
  (fib-iter 1 0 0 1 n))

;; unit-tests

trendisyourfriend View Post
This discussion belongs to the past. It has been discussed at length on this forum. People are using tools which speak to them. It can be VWAP, Fibonacci retracement and extentions levels, Volume profile with its Low/High volume nodes or Pivot points and finally Moving average like the 50 EMA or 200EMA often mentionned to gauge price action.

Despite your arguments @centaurer people are making money using them because they worked on their price action reading skills. I would encourage you to look at Damian Castilla's youtube channel to educate yourself on how a profitable trader uses the Fibonnaci tool.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCy5Zq25cFK3FZeF26wn4m0w

I quite like this discussion! It demonstrates how we are all unique and bring different ideas, concepts, and personal beliefs to the market. Thus, I don't think we should bury it in the past, the market is always evolving and so are we!


centaurer View Post
So fib levels work because there are so many people using them?
Come on. The amount of money being bet using fib levels is absolutely nothing in 2019 as % of all capital bet.

...

So you are saying then that fib levels have a property that a set of random levels do not. I was thinking about this after I posted the response driving around and I don't think this is testable. What are we even saying fib lines do exactly to start with to sample from and have a distribution of what? Is price attracted to them? Is price repelled by them? Does price bounce off them like a bouncing ball hitting a concrete floor? Then we would have to test whatever that is against random sets of retracement lines.

Then we are saying this works the same on monthly real estate prices in Chile, Corn futures data from 1985-1990 AND tick data of the cryptocurrency TRON? Every market displays this because of human psychology and crowd behavior no matter how different the market?

Have you not seen this happen? I'm quite surprised! One interesting quirk I have found is if you plot out the pHOD/pLOD and set the retracements between those high/low levels (I wrote a simple python script to compute them and round them off to the nearest 0.25 tick for /ES for example), you might, from time to time, see an amusing phenomenon where price surges and then bounces off the "golden ratio" as if it were made of titanium.

All of it works and None of it works, that is one of the mysteries of trading.

Cheers!

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  #56 (permalink)
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snax View Post

Have you not seen this happen? I'm quite surprised! One interesting quirk I have found is if you plot out the pHOD/pLOD and set the retracements between those high/low levels (I wrote a simple python script to compute them and round them off to the nearest 0.25 tick for /ES for example), you might, from time to time, see an amusing phenomenon where price surges and then bounces off the "golden ratio" as if it were made of titanium.

All of it works and None of it works, that is one of the mysteries of trading.

Cheers!


I was going to ask if that was LISP then seen the SICP mention. I tried to get through that book when I was in college but wasn't driven enough to get through it. I really wish I had.

The most interesting lines I ever plotted was a long time ago and I don't even remember what software it was. I had figured some pivots for a stock using a new method I found online then I couldn't believe how well they were working. Price bouncing right off and up then bouncing right down off the next level.

Then I realized I had typed in the wrong ticker and so I basically figured out levels for this stock using prices from a different stock.

I have done the same thing with a random number generator to pick out support and resistance/pivot lines as an exercise. Price bounces off those too just as nicely. Why? Because we haven't defined what "bounce" really means. You just ignore all the other levels and all the violations of your own level. I think it is a big part because of how good we are at visually matching something to a horizontal line.

IMO you can't draw a horizontal level that doesn't "work". No one ever defines what "bounce" or "work" means precisely enough to prove that the line doesn't "work".

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  #57 (permalink)
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Myself, I can see them somewhat useful in the overall scheme of things, but I generally look for a confluence of factors and would not take a trade strictly based on a fib level.

Not to take away from the topic of discussion @centaurer, but since you're obviously a staunch opponent, I am legitimately interested in what you, personally, think works or outweighs the effectiveness of fibs in the market

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  #58 (permalink)
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centaurer View Post
... I realized I had typed in the wrong ticker and so I basically figured out levels for this stock using prices from a different stock.

I have done the same thing with a random number generator to pick out support and resistance/pivot lines as an exercise. Price bounces off those too just as nicely. Why? Because we haven't defined what "bounce" really means. You just ignore all the other levels and all the violations of your own level. I think it is a big part because of how good we are at visually matching something to a horizontal line.

IMO you can't draw a horizontal level that doesn't "work". No one ever defines what "bounce" or "work" means precisely enough to prove that the line doesn't "work".



Similar topic here: https://futures.io/traders-hideout/7364-random-line-theory.html

This doesn't prove fibs, etc., don't work, but it sets a fairly high bar. Not everything is actually a random line, but random lines can look very good in hindsight. But only there.

Maybe someone has some actual trading experience (not hindsight analysis of a chart) that will add to this discussion?

Bob.

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  #59 (permalink)
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Rrrracer View Post
LOL that's hilarious... now I need to figure out how to implement Tribs into my trading...

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Sorry for the off topic

I think I need this chart. It looks exactly like so many I have drawn....



Bob.

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  #60 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
I think I need this chart. It looks exactly like so many I have drawn....



LOL yes but... did you take the trade?!

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