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Fibonacci Queen
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Fibonacci Queen

  #41 (permalink)
KNOXVILLE TN.
 
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fib.queen

i have been through most of her work and miners work too.. if i wanted to advance my fib. education i would go to e-mini addict.. i think you would save a lot of time.. you can get what you need with out spending tons of hours of study on stuff that will have very limited value..

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  #42 (permalink)
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dawntrader View Post
I have been using the software for 9 years. It's really the best and it really does work. I made about 33 percent today with 38.11 profit factor and 86% accuracy (lost one trade). It has proven itself to me over and over---but it isn't everything that you need to have in your toolbox. Besides experience, you need a few more tools in combination, IMHO. Have you already spoken to Nexgen? If not I can save you about 5 to 10k.

It always pays to understand more than the program, (e.g. Nexgen) but it does give you an edge, and that is what you need.

@bigmike

dont listen to him

https://futures.io/trading-reviews-vendors/5652-nexgen-indicators-review-www-nexgent3-com-23.html

Posting the same thing over and over. Fake

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  #43 (permalink)
south africa
 
 
Posts: 170 since Dec 2018


fibonacci in trading is seriously one the dumbest things I have ever encountered in my life. They have stood the test of time because people are suckers when it comes to statistical analysis and easily fooled. Of course if you anchor yourself to these magical numbers they will seem like they have meaning.

If you are going to actual bet money with them you probably want to get a himalayan salt lamp to put on your desk so you are more in tune with "the force" and calm your mind down.
How can 12,000 positive reviews on amazon be wrong? It must work!

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  #44 (permalink)
south africa
 
 
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Fat Tails View Post
I have run some probability distributions on fibs. They give you a moderate edge.

Distributions of what? Distributions for any market for all time? Distributions for any time series regardless of the generating process?

Or you mean distributions that fit what you were looking to find while ignoring evidence that did not?

Nonsense. I don't think this is testable to prove in any real sense that fib levels are better than random levels when talking about data generated by a non-ergodic, non-stationary dynamic system like markets.

I am surprised an inventive con artist hasn't used this fact to come up with their own "better" set of fib levels.

Just have to have a nice pseudo science name that lends itself to a narrative and you could make a ton of money selling such a product to suckers.

Even better, say you found the levels from training deep neural networks for good measure. "Deep Fibonacci Levels, on sale for $49.95 this month".

How about if price is attracted to Fib levels are there price levels that are unattractive and repel price in all times, all markets, all time series, all generating data process?
Or is that too ridiculous an idea? lol


Last edited by centaurer; May 4th, 2019 at 09:56 AM.
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  #45 (permalink)
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centaurer View Post
Distributions of what? Distributions for any market for all time? Distributions for any time series regardless of the generating process?

Or you mean distributions that fit what you were looking to find while ignoring evidence that did not?

Nonsense. I don't think this is testable to prove in any real sense that fib levels are better than random levels when talking about data generated by a non-ergodic, non-stationary dynamic system like markets.

I am surprised an inventive con artist hasn't used this fact to come up with their own "better" set of fib levels.

Just have to have a nice pseudo science name that lends itself to a narrative and you could make a ton of money selling such a product to suckers.

Even better, say you found the levels from training deep neural networks for good measure. "Deep Fibonacci Levels, on sale for $49.95 this month".

How about if price is attracted to Fib levels are there price levels that are unattractive and repel price in all times, all markets, all time series, all generating data process?
Or is that too ridiculous an idea? lol

I like your comment, as it shows that you are not following any religion. Definitely Fibonacci levels have no scientific foundation when it comes to trading. The fact that Fibonacci pattern are omnipresent in nature is linked to optimal space utilization. Another argument in favor of Fibonacci levels: Wave patterns that follow Fibonacci ratios would exhibit the same behavior as fractals, when comparing lower and higher timeframe waves. Nice idea, but not convincing, as non-linear systems do not care much about Fibonacci ratios and their potential suitability for developing self-containing fractals.

When Fibonacci levels provide a small edge, this can only explained by mass behavior. Traders love story telling (Fibonacci is a good story), pseudo-scientific concepts and all sorts of occult ideas (Gann was a numerologist, much worse than followers of the Fibonacci religion). A religion - as arbitrary as it may be - starts working as a self-fulfilling prophecy, once it has attracted a sufficiently large number of followers. The same is true for fads. A fad is a short-lived religion.

Trend following was the religion of the Nineties. The Turtles were followed by the Turtle Soup strategy. Fibonacci levels in trading are a little bit more long-lived. Also they come close to eights so that you can use them as a degree of latitude for navigating the markets.

If markets were completely non-stationary and non-ergodic, nobody could possibly trade them. Did ever come to your mind that mass behavior might impose temporary patterns? Or what you recommend to shut down this forum, because discussing trading concepts is a waste of time anyhow?

For deeper understanding of how this works, I would recommend the reading of Robert Axelrods "The Evolution of Cooperation". This book - which is not about markets - has much contributed to my understanding of how markets work.

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  #46 (permalink)
south africa
 
 
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Fat Tails View Post
If markets were completely non-stationary and non-ergodic, nobody could possibly trade them. Did ever come to your mind that mass behavior might impose temporary patterns? Or what you recommend to shut down this forum, because discussing trading concepts is a waste of time anyhow?

For deeper understanding of how this works, I would recommend the reading of Robert Axelrods "The Evolution of Cooperation". This book - which is not about markets - has much contributed to my understanding of how markets work.

So fib levels work because there are so many people using them?
Come on. The amount of money being bet using fib levels is absolutely nothing in 2019 as % of all capital bet.

You dodge the question though as far as distributions of what. You said "I have run some probability distributions on fibs. They give you a moderate edge."

So you are saying then that fib levels have a property that a set of random levels do not. I was thinking about this after I posted the response driving around and I don't think this is testable. What are we even saying fib lines do exactly to start with to sample from and have a distribution of what? Is price attracted to them? Is price repelled by them? Does price bounce off them like a bouncing ball hitting a concrete floor? Then we would have to test whatever that is against random sets of retracement lines.

Then we are saying this works the same on monthly real estate prices in Chile, Corn futures data from 1985-1990 AND tick data of the cryptocurrency TRON? Every market displays this because of human psychology and crowd behavior no matter how different the market?

Nonstationary and non ergodic doesn't mean 100% random and unpredictable. A time series doesn't have to be stationary in order to trade it.

Actually, if markets were always stationary and ergodic we would not be able to trade because pricing then would be a simple statistical process. It is not a problem for trading, it is a problem though when talking about comparing a fib level to a random level variable and comparing two distributions across all time and all markets.

I will check out that book, it sounds interesting. To me "Sapiens" by Yuval Noah Harari explains much of what we are talking about here.
We cooperate in large numbers because of our ability to invent fictional narratives. Fib lines are just random lines with a nice backstory.

To me it is one of the most obvious examples of being fooled by randomness.

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  #47 (permalink)
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This discussion belongs to the past. It has been discussed at length on this forum. People are using tools which speak to them. It can be VWAP, Fibonacci retracement and extentions levels, Volume profile with its Low/High volume nodes or Pivot points and finally Moving average like the 50 EMA or 200EMA often mentionned to gauge price action.

Despite your arguments @centaurer people are making money using them because they worked on their price action reading skills. I would encourage you to look at Damian Castilla's youtube channel to educate yourself on how a profitable trader uses the Fibonnaci tool.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCy5Zq25cFK3FZeF26wn4m0w

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  #48 (permalink)
south africa
 
 
Posts: 170 since Dec 2018


trendisyourfriend View Post
This discussion belongs to the past. It has been discussed at length on this forum. People are using tools which speak to them. It can be VWAP, Fibonacci retracement and extentions levels, Volume profile with its Low/High volume nodes or Pivot points and finally Moving average like the 50 EMA or 200EMA often mentionned to gauge price action.

Despite your arguments @centaurer people are making money using them because they worked on their price action reading skills. I would encourage you to look at Damian Castilla's youtube channel to educate yourself on how a profitable trader uses the Fibonnaci tool.

Profitability is not the litmus for a trading system or rule IMO.
You have to beat buy and hold or short and hold over the same time period or what is the point of trading? Trading off random lines and under performing a buy and hold strategy has no point. It is trivial to create profitable systems that enter at random, hold for a random or fixed length of time and exit then at some random time. You just have to run into the right data and market regime.

The fact someone has a youtube channel increases the probability to me they have no real signals.

I placed my first trade in 2004 and use to trade off pivots(more random arbitrary lines) for years. It is not as if I don't understand the other side of this.

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  #49 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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then explain this...

fib's are not only good for trading but also good for saving the country haha

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  #50 (permalink)
Perth + WA/Australia, Sydney and Manila
 
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Im not from the USA, Im not a USA citizen. I dont think the picture above is apporpriate and has nothing to do with the discussion. It can also be interpreted as crosshairs of a scope.

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