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Track records of Tastytrade Traders, especially Pete Mulmat
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Track records of Tastytrade Traders, especially Pete Mulmat

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Incline Village + NV or elsewhere in the world
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: E*Trade, TOS, IB & T'wrks
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Track records of Tastytrade Traders, especially Pete Mulmat

I have done a lot of day-trading in stocks and a little in futures; swing trading in stocks, ETFs and options; plus a lot of long term investing. I have had many successes and failures.

I continue to look for one or more successful traders to emulate, not to copy their trades/strategies blindly, but to help narrow my focus to the most crucial factors in trading. I have made some very expensive mistakes, described below, in following the wrong traders.

Before I spend more time watching Tastytrade, I am curious about the real profitability of their traders, especially Pete Mulmat, their futures guru. I tried to get information about the track record of the TT Traders directly from Tastytrade. They said that several people had requested that information and they were working on it.

Has anyone on Futures.io done or seen any good reviews of the actual P/L results of those TT Traders? Please let the Futures.io audience know if you have some valuable information to share on that topic.

LESSONS LEARNED

My father said that a smart man/woman learns from the mistakes of others rather than learning those lessons the hard way by making those same mistakes personally.

During my trading journey, I looked for some shortcuts and made some mistakes you should avoid.

Several years ago, I bought one lifetime option trades service for a few hundred dollars from what I understood was a well established, more conservative trader, but I lost money after several trades. I asked for a recent track record. They sent me an 18 month record showing a profit of $72,000 from a $45,000 starting balance after several months of trading. Then only 2 months later, that big profit became a $5,400 loss. Three months afterwards they showed $15,000 profit on a mark to market basis on the $45,000 balance. However, 3 of their last 4 trades ultimately tanked before closing out, so the realized profit was less than $7,000 over 18 months from 81 trades only if you were able to get the same trade prices as they did. A few years later on a website called Investimonials: Broker Reviews, Newsletter Reviews, Financial Reviews, I belatedly read that 22 of 24 people experienced nothing but losses using that service.

Before I tried options trading, I had explored futures trading in 2008 with a course costing $3,000 from a team that appeared to be successful, but I could not make a profit using their strategies. Years later, I discovered why on the internet. I saw a link to a CFTC order against them in May 2000 with the following summary:

"From November 1998 until the present, ... (those traders) ... committed solicitation fraud while acting as commodity trading advisors. (Those traders) offered a trading course and methodology based on misrepresentations made on the internet and in a brochure that they traded Standard & Poors 500 equity index futures contracts successfully for their own accounts using that methodology.

However, neither (of those traders) was a successful commodity trader. (One trader) consistently suffered net trading losses in each of the six years he traded, and (the other trader) made only an insignificant profit ($55) in one of several years he traded."

Maybe those traders learned to trade profitably after May 2000. It is more likely they just kept taking money from naive traders like me, until that CFTC information was posted on the internet and they disappeared.

So try to avoid learning the hard way and learn from others mistakes when you can. Happy and Prosperous Trading!

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  #3 (permalink)
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You cannot see the specific size of their trades, but you can see enough to calculate success over history if you sit down to figure it out. The benefit in that is you learn as you go. I don't know how much history pete has in the follow section of the platform... but the other have quite a bit. It's interesting.

Nate
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  #4 (permalink)
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Looking for a longer term track record

Hi Nate,

When I look on the "Follow" page for the each of the main traders on Tastyworks, I only see a few days to a couple of months of trades, not enough detail to show consistent profitability. I am looking for a longer term track record, at least a year or so. Do you know where I can find that data?

I have seen a few comments on the internet that Tom Sosnoff has been incurring substantial losses due to his apparent bearishness and that the account of one of the new trader-students in an early tastytrade show was blown up with poor trades. I won't rely on such random comments on the internet, so I am looking for really credible information.

Have you or anyone you know actually calculated the returns of any of the traders? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

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  #5 (permalink)
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mscholder View Post
Hi Nate,

When I look on the "Follow" page for the each of the main traders on Tastyworks, I only see a few days to a couple of months of trades, not enough detail to show consistent profitability. I am looking for a longer term track record, at least a year or so. Do you know where I can find that data?

I have seen a few comments on the internet that Tom Sosnoff has been incurring substantial losses due to his apparent bearishness and that the account of one of the new trader-students in an early tastytrade show was blown up with poor trades. I won't rely on such random comments on the internet, so I am looking for really credible information.

Have you or anyone you know actually calculated the returns of any of the traders? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Tom used to have a segment with his daughter but he blew up her account. Bat used to have a segment with Katie, but he blew up her account. Bat's son has been doing abit better by "going against the family" but I think even he's down now.

I doubt anyone on the show has made any money in recent years. Sosnoff has been short since TT first started.

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
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  #6 (permalink)
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Incline Village + NV or elsewhere in the world
 
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What are the odds ????

Hi Neo1,

I truly appreciate that information. I do not go to casinos because the odds are in the house's favor. One may have a lucky streak and walk away a winner occasionally, but eventually the casino should take your money since the odds are clearly in their favor.

I am trying to determine the odds for selling options premium and figure out whether the odds are against me or not.

After my own independent review and acceptance, I have done a few of the trade ideas from "Bob the Trader", clearly not a statistically valid sample. Based on my limited results, I would re-name the service, "Bad, the Trader".

Anyone else have a perspective to share?

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  #7 (permalink)
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mscholder View Post
I am looking for a longer term track record, at least a year or so. Do you know where I can find that data?

I think you have to follow them and track it real time, no historical data. You can watch the full segments of the "students" in the video archives. I haven't seen any of them blow up an account. *I haven't watched them all, I did watch Tom and his daughter I don't recall them blowing up her account?

I don't think THe follow page or Bob the trader are for shadow trading, and thus the design of limited details and history. They talk a lot about using the services more like a way to keep active and stay engaged... FWIW.

Nate
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  #8 (permalink)
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mscholder View Post
Hi Neo1,

I truly appreciate that information. I do not go to casinos because the odds are in the house's favor. One may have a lucky streak and walk away a winner occasionally, but eventually the casino should take your money since the odds are clearly in their favor.

I am trying to determine the odds for selling options premium and figure out whether the odds are against me or not.

After my own independent review and acceptance, I have done a few of the trade ideas from "Bob the Trader", clearly not a statistically valid sample. Based on my limited results, I would re-name the service, "Bad, the Trader".

Anyone else have a perspective to share?

Casino odds are static, they don't change. If you bet on a double 00 roulette wheel, you have a 1 in 38 chance of picking the right number on each and every spin, regardless of what has happened on previous spins. With options, the odds are dynamic, constantly changing based upon the particular mathematical model used to generate them. At the time you place your trade, based on a particular model, you can determine that you have a "60% chance of realizing 50% max profit prior to expiration". The part I don't hear discussed much is that those odds change constantly.

Said another way, playing blackjack (without counting) you will play against the same house disadvantage on every hand you play, today, tomorrow, and always. With trading, your odds change constantly due to market volatility and the passage of time (as options get closer to expiration.)

Last, anyone can look at a chart and see what the S&P has done since 2008. If you've been biased short, you have had the wrong bias. Selling premium in a high volatility market just might work but when the VIX is low the market is steadily grinding higher, that strategy is not optimal. Good luck.

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