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Larry Williams 2016 forecast


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Larry Williams 2016 forecast

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 Volt 
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I was wondering if anyone could tell me how Larry did on his 2016 forecast for the stock market ? Thank You

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 forgiven 
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he had a service called Larry TV i took a trail on 7 years ago, if you day trade he is no help. he is a swing trader, if you have a very large account an stayed with the program you might be ok. but he has big draw downs now and then,,he is honest he will tell you that. as for long term for the year,,, i do not know...

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 Volt 
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ok, so u can't tell me how his forecast went this year......perhaps someone can...thanks for the bump !
forgiven View Post
he had a service called Larry TV i took a trail on 7 years ago, if you day trade he is no help. he is a swing trader, if you have a very large account an stayed with the program you might be ok. but he has big draw downs now and then,,he is honest he will tell you that. as for long term for the year,,, i do not know...


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 inshacornea 
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Volt View Post
ok, so u can't tell me how his forecast went this year......perhaps someone can...thanks for the bump !

I think it did pretty good. It tells you approximate dates of peaks and bottom.
No use for day traders at all. But if someone hold position for 2-10 days , it could be very profitable.
It coincided very well with brexit and election drops.
Oil forecast was amazing.

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 Tymbeline 
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forgiven View Post
he has big draw downs now and then


That's putting it mildly.

He's been doing similar things for decades.

The NFA has previously fined him for not reporting to potential clients that, while his personal account in a promotional contest was very profitable, his managed accounts for clients lost substantial funds (this was held to constitute "deceptive and unbalanced promotional material and disclosure statements"). In July 1988, the Larry Williams Financial Strategy Fund was launched, followed in March 1989 by the World Cup Championship Fund, managed by Larry Williams, Jake Bernstein and two others. The 1988 fund lost more than 50% of its clients' equity in barely a year; the 1989 fund also lost more than half of its original equity by May 1990. It seems to me that there's an inordinate amount of "hype" around this guy. Be careful what and whom you choose to believe.

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Pedro40
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Here it is: (you need to get subscribed to scribd, but cancelable)

https://www.scribd.com/doc/314834107/Larry-Williams-2016-Forecast-Report

If you roll a bit down, you can see his 2016 Dow forecast:

https://www.ireallytrade.com/forecast2017/

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 Volt 
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Thanks Pedro...I know the Gann folks bash him a lot. Looks like the 2016 forecast did well at times . He now promotes a recorded seminar from 2015 as a stock course . Was told some of it was similar to dow darlings with a 20% average annual return over 28 years or so . You bring up valid points. How can anyone be sure if his current methods will stand the test of time ? Seems any method promoted would need to be back tested thoroughly before one plunks down their money. Perhaps he has learned from the mistakes of almost 30 years ago.

Anyone else have experiences with Williams?

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 Volt 
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Looks like he may have lawsuits with scribd.........maybe he lets the good forecasts get posted after the fact as a means of marketing. Strange that there aren't many different years of forecasts on that site....I'm staying away from it myself
Pedro40 View Post
Here it is: (you need to get subscribed to scribd, but cancelable)

https://www.scribd.com/doc/314834107/Larry-Williams-2016-Forecast-Report

If you roll a bit down, you can see his 2016 Dow forecast:

https://www.ireallytrade.com/forecast2017/


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Pedro40
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Volt View Post
Looks like he may have lawsuits with scribd.........maybe he lets the good forecasts get posted after the fact as a means of marketing.

Yeah, that was uploaded only in June, so just when the new forecast was coming out. (he does it twice a year)

I personally like him and use his Williams indicator, but I think he stretches himself too thin. Futures, stocks, forecasts, videos, everything. I was looking for a real account result on his website (after all he really trades) but couldn't find any...

Personally I don't think you can predict markets and stocks (and specially not a bunch of them) 4-6 months ahead. But there is seasonality and election years are usually bullish, so one can make educated guesses... But if we would sum all of his predictions the results were probably all over the place....

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 Volt 
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yeah, Pedro..it's seems like does cover a lot of ground. I'm still working to try and find a good data source that can do the following :

Lets me see a price chart of the spx in years ending in 0- 9 so if I want to see 60 years worth of data for example of years ending only in 9, for example like 2009, 1999, 1989, 1979 etc, etc then I could plot it...for this year we'd only look at years ending in 7. I know some sites do this for the election year cycles so I assume somebody graphs out the separate years of the decade too. Williams is doing this as part of his forecast. At least he did that in 2015.

I'm also trying to simulate and back test the dow darlings from his old active trader magazine articles but haven't found good data yet but I appreciate the ideas given on my other thread.

thanks for the input

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 Tymbeline 
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Volt View Post
Thanks Pedro...I know the Gann folks bash him a lot.


A lot of people who lost a lot of money in his various ventures also tend to bash him quite a bit.

You can understand why, given that the regulator on multiple occasions found clear evidence of "deceptive and unbalanced promotional material and disclosure statements".

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 Volt 
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Perhaps you can post some links of the others who are bashing him. The only thing that jumps out at me is the school of gann people..so I'd enjoy seeing what else is out there
Tymbeline View Post
A lot of people who lost a lot of money in his various ventures also tend to bash him quite a bit.

You can understand why, given that the regulator on multiple occasions found clear evidence of "deceptive and unbalanced promotional material and disclosure statements".


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 Tymbeline 
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Volt View Post
Perhaps you can post some links of the others who are bashing him.


I don't want to turn the thread into a "bash-fest". I just wanted to say, in effect, "Let's not pretend that this is one of the good guys, or one of the reliable guys". (The information I referred to above came from Futures magazine and from William Gallacher's book Winner Take All.)

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 Volt 
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that sounds fair and a wise choice
Tymbeline View Post
I don't want to turn the thread into a "bash-fest". I just wanted to say, in effect, "Let's not pretend that this is one of the good guys, or one of the reliable guys". (The information I referred to above came from Futures magazine and from William Gallacher's book Winner Take All.)


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Tymbeline View Post
the regulator on multiple occasions found clear evidence of "deceptive and unbalanced promotional material and disclosure statements".

That doesn't mean anything about his predicting abilities. That is what the thread is about. Also, you assume people never change.

Last year's Dow prediction chart was pretty impressive...



He got the January bottom, the Sept top and the November bottom all correct. 11 months in advance.... Not to mention the Brexit drop...

In 2015 he predicted the August drop and recovery.... So instead of bringing up old things from the past, why don't we judge him by the current record?

And just for the record, he predicts a market crash for this year....

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 Volt 
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Yes, people can change... my guess would be that crash is coming in july to go with decennial pattern and post election year pattern....but I'm a newbie and only have his book from years ago......I think he is trying to do much more with fundamentals now too.....now that darlings of the dow method from years ago would be nice to back test . I need data !!!!

so we can't crucify him for the errors of the past regardless if they are proven or not and so far it seems the forecast for 2016 was very good on some markets based on the feedback here...after all, that is the title of the thread

Pedro40 View Post
That doesn't mean anything about his predicting abilities. That is what the thread is about. Also, you assume people never change.

Last year's Dow prediction chart was pretty impressive...



He got the January bottom, the Sept top and the November bottom all correct. 11 months in advance.... Not to mention the Brexit drop...

In 2015 he predicted the August drop and recovery.... So instead of bringing up old things from the past, why don't we judge him by the current record?

And just for the record, he predicts a market crash for this year....


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 Volt 
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I've had a chance to go back through about 4 - 5 years of his forecasts and while they are very good I think you could probably do it yourself. I only looked at the stock forecasts.

He uses the presidential pattern and the decennial pattern along with a two year pattern. Thrown into the mix is also a 4 year pattern as mentioned in his book " The right Stock at the right time" so you can count every 4 years. In the book he uses 2002. He mentions that the math is so easy a child could do it so you can expect good lows to form every 4 years...so we get 2008 , 2012, 20016, 2018 etc...you get the idea. I am told that now he counts 4 years from significant lows but haven't verified this. All these lows seem to fall around the October - November time frame it seems to me. These are just approximations. Many are aware that he is big on fundamentals too so he isn't just blindly buying or selling at these forecast turning points. He likes the yield curve and the Anxious index found here

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/anxious-index/

The reports also include some trading methods/systems mostly designed around trading days of the month which seem to be solid performers. Unless you follow many markets and commodities I think it is probably better to look at the work of the Stock Traders almanac folks found here ( hey wait, can I do this without being called a shill ?) - Almanac Trader


They are doing the same types of things with some refinements and don't give much power to the decennial pattern anymore. Today's post was a good one and addresses some conflicts in different forecasting ideas too. They know each other I think as they are mentioned by Williams so perhaps they use the same data and are buddies.

As much as I like the current persona that Larry gives off, I think you would have more benefit from the Almanac ideas if you are looking for forecasts and then create your own. I heard his current stock trading offering is good and in his youtube videos he seems passionate about the markets and wanting to teach people. It sure doesn't seem easy to be a vendor but he's been around a long time and I think if he really was a true fraud as some suggest then he probably would have been shut down years ago like so many others. My only point here is that many vendors that are still alive that were popular in the 70's and 80's are no longer in business. Williams has survived the transition to the internet age.

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 Volt 
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for those looking for a good seasonal site this one provides lot of cool and good stuff....it's also free



Time-Price-Research: Presidential Cycle

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 dk27 
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He is not a fraud, he honestly lost millions to his investors, but who cares.


Volt View Post
I've had a chance to go back through about 4 - 5 years of his forecasts and while they are very good I think you could probably do it yourself. I only looked at the stock forecasts.

He uses the presidential pattern and the decennial pattern along with a two year pattern. Thrown into the mix is also a 4 year pattern as mentioned in his book " The right Stock at the right time" so you can count every 4 years. In the book he uses 2002. He mentions that the math is so easy a child could do it so you can expect good lows to form every 4 years...so we get 2008 , 2012, 20016, 2018 etc...you get the idea. I am told that now he counts 4 years from significant lows but haven't verified this. All these lows seem to fall around the October - November time frame it seems to me. These are just approximations. Many are aware that he is big on fundamentals too so he isn't just blindly buying or selling at these forecast turning points. He likes the yield curve and the Anxious index found here

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/anxious-index/

The reports also include some trading methods/systems mostly designed around trading days of the month which seem to be solid performers. Unless you follow many markets and commodities I think it is probably better to look at the work of the Stock Traders almanac folks found here ( hey wait, can I do this without being called a shill ?) - Almanac Trader


They are doing the same types of things with some refinements and don't give much power to the decennial pattern anymore. Today's post was a good one and addresses some conflicts in different forecasting ideas too. They know each other I think as they are mentioned by Williams so perhaps they use the same data and are buddies.

As much as I like the current persona that Larry gives off, I think you would have more benefit from the Almanac ideas if you are looking for forecasts and then create your own. I heard his current stock trading offering is good and in his youtube videos he seems passionate about the markets and wanting to teach people. It sure doesn't seem easy to be a vendor but he's been around a long time and I think if he really was a true fraud as some suggest then he probably would have been shut down years ago like so many others. My only point here is that many vendors that are still alive that were popular in the 70's and 80's are no longer in business. Williams has survived the transition to the internet age.


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In 2011, Larry Williams discussed his methodology for several markets. WD Gann, Delta Society...offered intelligent and thoughtful truths. The Egyptians also used similar models for farming, travel, fishing.

The great Law is the Law... interacting forces both near and historic converging and de-merging.
It's not something we actually take to heart...yet in fact, astronomers did, if they had truly studied.

Not everyone will work sufficiently to test, retest, and mature the skill, yet history is filled with Wise Souls who were very disciplined, honorable, and accurate...few and far between. Yet it does not invalidate the presence of the reality that is true.

It's easy to criticize what you don't understand clearly. Chalk it up to lunacy...and you limited your ability and the universe around you.

Why do some think so small when the galaxy you exist in = 100 million light years in width and 100 + million galaxies moving thru the universe... existing billions of light years in distances apart, perfectly balanced without your ability to make them so perfect?

Yet the universe tells you about eternity...and how things function.
Where do you think math came from? Souls studied the stars and creation. If man remained close minded, we would not have any flight, communications, fuels, or vehicles, medicines...as we do today. All we actual learn thereby, already exists. Yet our eyes are to discover what is.

Williams used cycles of 10 years...and averaging them monthly, weekly, daily...data mined historicals.
20, 40, 50-year cycles. Its a lot of work and with some merit, just not extremely accurate perfection.
WD Gann was more accurate than Williams because of his math and study of numerology and astronomy.
T.Bukowski explains Williams technique in general and provides a forecast model of DJIA.

https://thepatternsite.com/Forecast.html#NOB28

So don't give up on learning and keep an open mind. You just might discover an edge you formerly ignored thru personal dis-acceptance of things you were not ready for at the time.

"It is the glory of God to conceal a matter. And the honor of a king is to search it out."


We are grateful to the true spiritual and mental pioneers.

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 Volt 
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This is a fun read but Williams debunked Gann and there is no actual documented evidence of Ganns consistent success. Anyway, the bottom line is just looking at the Presidential and decennial patterns will be enough for most. You naturally have to put all these things in context. So a turn date means nothing unless you get some fundamental or technical reason ( preferably both) to get long or to be short. Even Williams will agree with this. For example, the folks at the Stock traders almanac are looking for a technical reason to get out of stocks in the April - May time frame because it begins a seasonally weak period. So while projections are fun and all that you shouldn't trade them alone.

I NEVER met or heard of anyone who actually trades from astrology and makes money although I see many newsletters over the years that have been trying to call a top based on some astro cylce. So if you or someone you know can do it then please start a thread with your journal showing these great ideas in action . I have a feeling no thread will come. I'm not looking for an argument here so please don't make this into some gann- astro thread. Just start a new one. Thanks
Kowabunga View Post
In 2011, Larry Williams discussed his methodology for several markets. WD Gann, Delta Society...offered intelligent and thoughtful truths. The Egyptians also used similar models for farming, travel, fishing.

The great Law is the Law... interacting forces both near and historic converging and de-merging.
It's not something we actually take to heart...yet in fact, astronomers did, if they had truly studied.

Not everyone will work sufficiently to test, retest, and mature the skill, yet history is filled with Wise Souls who were very disciplined, honorable, and accurate...few and far between. Yet it does not invalidate the presence of the reality that is true.

It's easy to criticize what you don't understand clearly. Chalk it up to lunacy...and you limited your ability and the universe around you.

Why do some think so small when the galaxy you exist in = 100 million light years in width and 100 + million galaxies moving thru the universe... existing billions of light years in distances apart, perfectly balanced without your ability to make them so perfect?

Yet the universe tells you about eternity...and how things function.
Where do you think math came from? Souls studied the stars and creation. If man remained close minded, we would not have any flight, communications, fuels, or vehicles, medicines...as we do today. All we actual learn thereby, already exists. Yet our eyes are to discover what is.

Williams used cycles of 10 years...and averaging them monthly, weekly, daily...data mined historicals.
20, 40, 50-year cycles. Its a lot of work and with some merit, just not extremely accurate perfection.
WD Gann was more accurate than Williams because of his math and study of numerology and astronomy.
T.Bukowski explains Williams technique in general and provides a forecast model of DJIA.

https://thepatternsite.com/Forecast.html#NOB28

So don't give up on learning and keep an open mind. You just might discover an edge you formerly ignored thru personal dis-acceptance of things you were not ready for at the time.

"It is the glory of God to conceal a matter. And the honor of a king is to search it out."


We are grateful to the true spiritual and mental pioneers.


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 Tymbeline 
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dk27 View Post
he honestly lost millions to his investors, but who cares.


Not "honestly": the regulators said he was dishonest, and they cared enough to say that on multiple occasions they'd found clear evidence of "deceptive and unbalanced promotional material and disclosure statements" (their words).

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 Volt 
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his 2017 stock forecast was a disaster........my 9 year old did much better...perhaps 2018 will swing his way

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 Volt 
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anyone know how he did in 2018 ? I wonder if his service is on an upswing or going through another drawdown...just curious about the stock forecast only

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