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Larry Williams 2016 forecast
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Larry Williams 2016 forecast

  #11 (permalink)
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yeah, Pedro..it's seems like does cover a lot of ground. I'm still working to try and find a good data source that can do the following :

Lets me see a price chart of the spx in years ending in 0- 9 so if I want to see 60 years worth of data for example of years ending only in 9, for example like 2009, 1999, 1989, 1979 etc, etc then I could plot it...for this year we'd only look at years ending in 7. I know some sites do this for the election year cycles so I assume somebody graphs out the separate years of the decade too. Williams is doing this as part of his forecast. At least he did that in 2015.

I'm also trying to simulate and back test the dow darlings from his old active trader magazine articles but haven't found good data yet but I appreciate the ideas given on my other thread.

thanks for the input

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  #12 (permalink)
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Volt View Post
Thanks Pedro...I know the Gann folks bash him a lot.


A lot of people who lost a lot of money in his various ventures also tend to bash him quite a bit.

You can understand why, given that the regulator on multiple occasions found clear evidence of "deceptive and unbalanced promotional material and disclosure statements".

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Perhaps you can post some links of the others who are bashing him. The only thing that jumps out at me is the school of gann people..so I'd enjoy seeing what else is out there
Tymbeline View Post
A lot of people who lost a lot of money in his various ventures also tend to bash him quite a bit.

You can understand why, given that the regulator on multiple occasions found clear evidence of "deceptive and unbalanced promotional material and disclosure statements".


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Volt View Post
Perhaps you can post some links of the others who are bashing him.


I don't want to turn the thread into a "bash-fest". I just wanted to say, in effect, "Let's not pretend that this is one of the good guys, or one of the reliable guys". (The information I referred to above came from Futures magazine and from William Gallacher's book Winner Take All.)

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that sounds fair and a wise choice
Tymbeline View Post
I don't want to turn the thread into a "bash-fest". I just wanted to say, in effect, "Let's not pretend that this is one of the good guys, or one of the reliable guys". (The information I referred to above came from Futures magazine and from William Gallacher's book Winner Take All.)


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  #16 (permalink)
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Tymbeline View Post
the regulator on multiple occasions found clear evidence of "deceptive and unbalanced promotional material and disclosure statements".

That doesn't mean anything about his predicting abilities. That is what the thread is about. Also, you assume people never change.

Last year's Dow prediction chart was pretty impressive...

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He got the January bottom, the Sept top and the November bottom all correct. 11 months in advance.... Not to mention the Brexit drop...

In 2015 he predicted the August drop and recovery.... So instead of bringing up old things from the past, why don't we judge him by the current record?

And just for the record, he predicts a market crash for this year....


Last edited by Pedro40; January 4th, 2017 at 03:02 PM.
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Yes, people can change... my guess would be that crash is coming in july to go with decennial pattern and post election year pattern....but I'm a newbie and only have his book from years ago......I think he is trying to do much more with fundamentals now too.....now that darlings of the dow method from years ago would be nice to back test . I need data !!!!

so we can't crucify him for the errors of the past regardless if they are proven or not and so far it seems the forecast for 2016 was very good on some markets based on the feedback here...after all, that is the title of the thread

Pedro40 View Post
That doesn't mean anything about his predicting abilities. That is what the thread is about. Also, you assume people never change.

Last year's Dow prediction chart was pretty impressive...

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He got the January bottom, the Sept top and the November bottom all correct. 11 months in advance.... Not to mention the Brexit drop...

In 2015 he predicted the August drop and recovery.... So instead of bringing up old things from the past, why don't we judge him by the current record?

And just for the record, he predicts a market crash for this year....


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  #18 (permalink)
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I've had a chance to go back through about 4 - 5 years of his forecasts and while they are very good I think you could probably do it yourself. I only looked at the stock forecasts.

He uses the presidential pattern and the decennial pattern along with a two year pattern. Thrown into the mix is also a 4 year pattern as mentioned in his book " The right Stock at the right time" so you can count every 4 years. In the book he uses 2002. He mentions that the math is so easy a child could do it so you can expect good lows to form every 4 years...so we get 2008 , 2012, 20016, 2018 etc...you get the idea. I am told that now he counts 4 years from significant lows but haven't verified this. All these lows seem to fall around the October - November time frame it seems to me. These are just approximations. Many are aware that he is big on fundamentals too so he isn't just blindly buying or selling at these forecast turning points. He likes the yield curve and the Anxious index found here

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/anxious-index/

The reports also include some trading methods/systems mostly designed around trading days of the month which seem to be solid performers. Unless you follow many markets and commodities I think it is probably better to look at the work of the Stock Traders almanac folks found here ( hey wait, can I do this without being called a shill ?) - Almanac Trader


They are doing the same types of things with some refinements and don't give much power to the decennial pattern anymore. Today's post was a good one and addresses some conflicts in different forecasting ideas too. They know each other I think as they are mentioned by Williams so perhaps they use the same data and are buddies.

As much as I like the current persona that Larry gives off, I think you would have more benefit from the Almanac ideas if you are looking for forecasts and then create your own. I heard his current stock trading offering is good and in his youtube videos he seems passionate about the markets and wanting to teach people. It sure doesn't seem easy to be a vendor but he's been around a long time and I think if he really was a true fraud as some suggest then he probably would have been shut down years ago like so many others. My only point here is that many vendors that are still alive that were popular in the 70's and 80's are no longer in business. Williams has survived the transition to the internet age.

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for those looking for a good seasonal site this one provides lot of cool and good stuff....it's also free



Time-Price-Research: Presidential Cycle

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He is not a fraud, he honestly lost millions to his investors, but who cares.


Volt View Post
I've had a chance to go back through about 4 - 5 years of his forecasts and while they are very good I think you could probably do it yourself. I only looked at the stock forecasts.

He uses the presidential pattern and the decennial pattern along with a two year pattern. Thrown into the mix is also a 4 year pattern as mentioned in his book " The right Stock at the right time" so you can count every 4 years. In the book he uses 2002. He mentions that the math is so easy a child could do it so you can expect good lows to form every 4 years...so we get 2008 , 2012, 20016, 2018 etc...you get the idea. I am told that now he counts 4 years from significant lows but haven't verified this. All these lows seem to fall around the October - November time frame it seems to me. These are just approximations. Many are aware that he is big on fundamentals too so he isn't just blindly buying or selling at these forecast turning points. He likes the yield curve and the Anxious index found here

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/anxious-index/

The reports also include some trading methods/systems mostly designed around trading days of the month which seem to be solid performers. Unless you follow many markets and commodities I think it is probably better to look at the work of the Stock Traders almanac folks found here ( hey wait, can I do this without being called a shill ?) - Almanac Trader


They are doing the same types of things with some refinements and don't give much power to the decennial pattern anymore. Today's post was a good one and addresses some conflicts in different forecasting ideas too. They know each other I think as they are mentioned by Williams so perhaps they use the same data and are buddies.

As much as I like the current persona that Larry gives off, I think you would have more benefit from the Almanac ideas if you are looking for forecasts and then create your own. I heard his current stock trading offering is good and in his youtube videos he seems passionate about the markets and wanting to teach people. It sure doesn't seem easy to be a vendor but he's been around a long time and I think if he really was a true fraud as some suggest then he probably would have been shut down years ago like so many others. My only point here is that many vendors that are still alive that were popular in the 70's and 80's are no longer in business. Williams has survived the transition to the internet age.


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