Market System Analyzer MSA Adaptrade Fixed Fraction problem... - futures io
futures io

Market System Analyzer MSA Adaptrade Fixed Fraction problem...

Discussion in Trading Reviews and Vendors

    1. trending_up 1,397 views
    2. thumb_up 0 thanks given
    3. group 1 followers
    1. forum 2 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments

Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

Closed Thread
Search this Thread

Market System Analyzer MSA Adaptrade Fixed Fraction problem...

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
Malaga, Spain
Posts: 1 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received

I am a total noob in FX & MM and I am having difficulty with understanding Market System Analyzer 
Could you explain it to me as if I am 2 year old, step by step with examples?
Alpari FX, Margin 1:500, Margin per 0.01 Lot is 3 USD
USDJPY trades are

Historically max loss was -9.29 USD for Lot 0.01, but stoploss is possible -16 USD loss for 0.01 Lot
And according to Metatrader 4 trading charts, price on multiple occasions was very close to hitting stoploss -16 USD before bouncing back and closing in profits or less losses.
Thus, I put in MSA that maximum risk was -16 USD for each 0.01 LOT as my strategy dictates
Initial Balance in MSA 1000 USD
Max lot size 10 000, because Alpari FX allows max 100 Lots 100 /0.01 = 10 000 MSA lots
Initial Margin Per Contract 4$, in reality Alpari wants 2 USD margin for USDJPY if leverage 1:500
Just to be safe…
Monte Carlo 10 000 samples, F7 Optimize Position Size, Fixed Fraction from Equity
These are historical trades

Position Sizing: Fixed Risk
Fixed Fraction (%): 100.0 (Optimal)
Starting Equity: $1,000.00
Equity High: $1,542,937.19
Equity Low: $156.22
Net Profit: $1,541,937.19
Final Equity: $1,542,937.19
Return on Starting Equity: 154200.%
Number of Trades: 41
Percent Profitable: 73.17%
Max Contracts: 10,000
Largest Win: $227,900.00
Ave Win: $51,428.94
Max Consec Wins: 26
Largest Loss: ($334.44)
Ave Loss: ($84.63)
Max Consec Losses: 7
Win - Loss Ratio: 607.7
Ave Trade: $37,608.22
Ave Trade (%): 24.10%
Max Drawdown: $843.78
Max Drawdown (%): 84.38%
Profit Factor: 1657.
Return - Drawdown Ratio: 1827.
Modified Sharpe Ratio: 0.7725

100% or even 150% of equity Optimal Fixed Fraction, really?
What is it mean?
I have to risk 100% of my account on each trade?
How should I use MSA results then?

Here is answer from MSA creator
You’re not understanding how the program works. 100% fixed fraction doesn’t mean you risk 100%. It only risk up to the maximum position size. You could put a fixed fraction of 10000000%, and you wouldn’t be risking any more than the maximum size. That’s why you have a maximum size. The 100% result is just what the optimization gives you because you set a hard limit on the size. That’s why I suggested you use the Parameter Studies feature so you can see how the fixed fraction is related to the results.

MSA has been used by over 1000 traders for more than 10 years, including many professional money managers. The calculations have been fully verified. I’m sorry if the functionality of the program is not clearer.

I calculate lot size like this

double current_balance = 0;
   int nOrders = 0;    datetime OCTs[];
    for(int iPos=(OrdersHistoryTotal()-1); iPos >= 0; iPos--) if (
        OrderSelect(iPos, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_HISTORY)  // Only orders w/
    &&  OrderMagicNumber()  == Magic             // my magic number
    &&  OrderSymbol()       == Symbol()             // and my pair.
    &&  OrderType()         <= OP_SELL//Avoid cr/bal
     double True_Profit = OrderProfit()+OrderSwap()+OrderCommission();
     current_balance += True_Profit;
     if (debug) Print("True Profit="+True_Profit+";current_balance="+current_balance+";OrderProfit="+OrderProfit()+";OrderSwap()="+OrderSwap()+";OrderCommission()="+OrderCommission()+";OrderType()="+OrderType()+";OrderOpenPrice="+OrderOpenPrice()+";OrderClosePrice="+OrderClosePrice()+";OrderOpenTime()="+OrderOpenTime()+";OrderTicket()="+OrderTicket()+";OrderLots()="+OrderLots());
     // current_balance
         // double profit = (OrderClosePrice()-OrderOpenPrice())*OrderLots()*MarketInfo(OrderSymbol(),MODE_TICKVALUE)/Point;
   //if (debug) Print ("profit="+profit);
    current_balance += initial_deposit;
   if (debug) Print(Symbol() +";AccountFreeMargin()="+AccountFreeMargin()+";initial_deposit="+initial_deposit+"; current_balance="+current_balance); 

   double normalized_balance = NormalizeDouble(current_balance,2);
   double RiskDollars = (RiskPercent/100) *normalized_balance;
   RiskDollars = NormalizeDouble(RiskDollars,0);
   // slippage? spread?
   double RiskStopLoss = StopLoss*10 +Slippage*10+MarketInfo(Symbol(), MODE_SPREAD);
   double pip_value =  (MarketInfo(Symbol(), MODE_TICKVALUE)/ MarketInfo(Symbol(), MODE_TICKSIZE)) * Point; // true stable pip value in USD deposit currency
   Print (" RiskDollars="+ RiskDollars+";RiskStopLoss="+RiskStopLoss+";pip_value="+pip_value+";1 lot risk RSL*pipvalue="+(pip_value*RiskStopLoss));
   LotSize = NormalizeDouble( RiskDollars/(pip_value*RiskStopLoss),2) ;

Journal Challenge April 2021 results:
Competing for $1800 in prizes from Jigsaw
looks_oneMaking a Living with the Microsby sstheo
(619 thanks from 61 posts)
looks_twoSalao's Journalby Salao
(161 thanks from 29 posts)
looks_3Learning to Profit - A journey in algorithms and optionsby Syntax
(115 thanks from 27 posts)
looks_4Deetee’s DAX Trading Journal (time based)by Deetee
(94 thanks from 30 posts)
looks_5Maybe a little bit different journalby Malykubo
(53 thanks from 32 posts)
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
I finally blew up an account
159 thanks
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
83 thanks
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
65 thanks
The tiyfTradePlanFactory indicator
31 thanks
Building a Crypto Mining Rig
19 thanks
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
Big Mike's Avatar
Posts: 50,068 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,534 given, 98,494 received

(a) Use the [code] tags to wrap code, otherwise it is badly formatted. I fixed your post.

(b) Use the existing MSA thread to discuss MSA:


We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal

Closed Thread

futures io Trading Community Trading Reviews and Vendors > Market System Analyzer MSA Adaptrade Fixed Fraction problem...

Last Updated on June 17, 2015

Upcoming Webinars and Events

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!


Journal Challenge w/$1,800 in prizes!

May 7

The Cold Hard Truth: Maybe I Am Not Good Enough w/Chris Gray @ Earn2Trade

Elite only

Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada),
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts