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Quantsports, Ninjatrader and Betfair
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Quantsports, Ninjatrader and Betfair

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
Pt Vala
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Proprietary
Favorite Futures: CL, EUR, DAX
 
Posts: 58 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 12 given, 30 received

Please realize what the betting industry is about:
It's a globalized multi-billion dollar industry.

(And therefore it is much like Forex and other financial markets.)

See Hong Kong Jockey Club - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"In 2002–2003, the betting turnover was HK$71 billion"

Therefore you can be sure that there are no simple recipes (like "buy when above moving average") that make you a winner.
Also simple arbitrage strategies don't work in this area because all shops are connected.
Don't assume they are just dumb bucket shops.

Furthermore it might be helpful to keep in mind that betting is widely used for money laundering.
You can be sure that the people that keep up businesses which need such services don't leave too many holes to let over people live of their "work".

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  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: MultiCharts
 
Posts: 230 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 10 given, 20 received


uexkuell View Post
Therefore you can be sure that there are no simple recipes (like "buy when above moving average") that make you a winner.
Also simple arbitrage strategies don't work in this area because all shops are connected.
Don't assume they are just dumb bucket shops.

Furthermore it might be helpful to keep in mind that betting is widely used for money laundering.
You can be sure that the people that keep up businesses which need such services don't leave too many holes to let over people live of their "work".

SO all retail betting are losing money, like the 95% of the retail trader?
So as you write..." there are not simple recipes (like "buy when above moving average") that make you a winner" what kind or recipes...
I don't assume that are dumb bucket shop but I think the could be a key to win money from them?
I don't know about laundering and betting and how this concert with trading, please what so you mean?
SO what is their business take monet from the trader and poor user?

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  #23 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: MultiCharts
 
Posts: 230 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 10 given, 20 received



QuantSports View Post
I think you might have slightly misunderstood, but that's entirely understandable for someone unfamiliar with the betting exchanges. Pre-event sports trading does not require knowledge of the actual event, just the price. A lot like in some forms of futures trading; trading is entirely market profile based.

Fundamental analysis is used by the traditional bettor who does not seek to trade the hypothetical probability of an outcome happening.

Hi quantSports,
I see your 3 video about built creating a winning strategy about betting.

COuld you please post here a concrete strategy to share with other?

Will you develop also connection to Multicharts?

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  #24 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: MultiCharts
 
Posts: 230 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 10 given, 20 received


Fat Tails View Post
Saw the Gom Volume Ladder on the QuantSports video and was wondering, what the horse does with the ladder.

How do you do this? WHat exatly do the horse?


Fat Tails View Post
. The relative strength index, spikes, troughs, head and shoulders, everything gets a new meaning. And you definitely should not bet on any moving average.

I use moving avere i find to trade well. Why you don't find good?



Fat Tails View Post
But then I must acknowledge that the Heikin Ashi chart already looks like a horse mane, racing over Welles Wilder's parabolic SAR. Very British, indeed.

Please explain and post anyimage or videos.

Anyway Fatails I see that you are you are good in statistic, could you post any results to make a system on Betting?

For Quantsports:
why is not possible send automatic order to betfair?
Are you built a module software to send automatic order to the Betfair exchange?

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  #25 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Budapest
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Betfair
 
Posts: 4 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received

For a while, I was trying like most popular indicators existing around.

It is hard to say they are useful, market is mainly pushed by weight of money, and sudden steamers or drifters, not all the time though.

If all the players are exact size, like 500 stakes, it could work. But when the public money or giant bookie bets come in to the market, the balance changes very quickly. At that point indicators are not able to help..

So, all in all, it comes to the race selection..

It would be hard to create a winning strategy with technical analysis in the long run..

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  #26 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: MultiCharts
 
Posts: 230 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 10 given, 20 received


3virgul14 View Post
If all the players are exact size, like 500 stakes, it could work. But when the public money or giant bookie bets come in to the market, the balance changes very quickly. At that point indicators are not able to help..

So following what you are saying volume analisys and market delta, volume delta are our best chance to win in the betting exchange?

I am without experience in this field, hav you tried something that's works?

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