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FuturesTrader71 (FT71) / Morad Askar - Ask Me Anything (AMA)
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FuturesTrader71 (FT71) / Morad Askar - Ask Me Anything (AMA)

  #311 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,168 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,280 given, 82,800 received

Statistical webinar discussed:

https://futures.io/webinars/june11_2013/futurestrader71_statistical_analysis/

Thread:

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/27583-webinar-futurestrader71-ft71-statistical-analysis-broader-edge.html

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

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2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
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4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
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  #312 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,168 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,280 given, 82,800 received

Regarding seasonality, an interesting thread from @Fat Tails here:

https://futures.io/elite-circle/5242-intraday-seasonality-volatility-when-trade-when-not-trade.html

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #313 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,168 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,280 given, 82,800 received


I want to thank @FuturesTrader71 as always for his time today for the AMA.

Here is the recording:



If anyone has questions that went unanswered, you can post them here in the thread.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #314 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Favorite Futures: JDAM
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,741 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 9,820 given, 11,004 received

In a few of your webinars you have discussed the overnight high and lows. I believe that you gave a statistic that 95% of the time if say the high is hit it will not hit the low. Or the other way around. But I have noticed in the NQ we have hit both a few times in the day session over the last few weeks. What does it say about the market if it takes out both in the day session?

My initial thought is range bound activity. That if it hits both then it is like a ping pong ball that is bouncing from one extreme to the next. Am I correct or what is your take?

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  #315 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Favorite Futures: JDAM
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,741 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 9,820 given, 11,004 received


tturner86 View Post
In a few of your webinars you have discussed the overnight high and lows. I believe that you gave a statistic that 95% of the time if say the high is hit it will not hit the low. Or the other way around. But I have noticed in the NQ we have hit both a few times in the day session over the last few weeks. What does it say about the market if it takes out both in the day session?

My initial thought is range bound activity. That if it hits both then it is like a ping pong ball that is bouncing from one extreme to the next. Am I correct or what is your take?

**@FuturesTrader71 looking forward to your insights on this.

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  #316 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
Broker/Data: Stage 5 Trading Corp
Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC
 
FuturesTrader71's Avatar
 
Posts: 238 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 74 given, 783 received


Mtype View Post
Another awesome AMA. Thanks FT and Mike!

Thanks for the feedback. Always appreciated. It is so key for us to know that it is useful and to change when it is not.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


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  #317 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
Broker/Data: Stage 5 Trading Corp
Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC
 
FuturesTrader71's Avatar
 
Posts: 238 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 74 given, 783 received


DeadCatBounced View Post
Sorry I have not had a chance to attend a live AMA,

How many trades do you think should be booked before the tick expectancy starts to mean something realistic.

The absolutely minimum, in my opinion, is 50 trades. You can start tweaking your trade management and/or plan after 50 trades or so. Your ability to tweak efficiently will depend on how consistently you took and managed the trades.

If you want this to be really useful, post your Trade Analyzer results or trade results here and we can go over them for everyone's benefit.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
 
  #318 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
Broker/Data: Stage 5 Trading Corp
Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC
 
FuturesTrader71's Avatar
 
Posts: 238 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 74 given, 783 received


arnie View Post
Switch: How to change things when change is hard.

Amazon.com: Switch: How to change things when change is hard eBook: Chip Heath, Dan Heath: Kindle Store

An amazing book on how to change behavior.


Similar to The Power of Habit but... better

Really cool that you posted it here. This is the book I recommended to futures.io (formerly BMT) for the June event.

Please use this link if you plan to get it from Amazon so that my charity can get the credit (doesn't cost extra):

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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The following 4 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
 
  #319 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
Broker/Data: Stage 5 Trading Corp
Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC
 
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Big Mike View Post

Good work by @Fat Tails. Love this kind of info to shape trading decisions.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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The following 2 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
 
  #320 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
Broker/Data: Stage 5 Trading Corp
Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC
 
FuturesTrader71's Avatar
 
Posts: 238 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 74 given, 783 received



tturner86 View Post
In a few of your webinars you have discussed the overnight high and lows. I believe that you gave a statistic that 95% of the time if say the high is hit it will not hit the low. Or the other way around. But I have noticed in the NQ we have hit both a few times in the day session over the last few weeks. What does it say about the market if it takes out both in the day session?

My initial thought is range bound activity. That if it hits both then it is like a ping pong ball that is bouncing from one extreme to the next. Am I correct or what is your take?

The stat is as follows: 96% of 1400 days sampled in ES, the day session touched or broke the overnight high OR low. 27% of the time, it touched or broke both.

If NQ is consistently taking out both sides, I would think that the NQ either doesn't track the Asian/European indices as well as the ES does so it doesn't get much range overnight and is therefore easily broken or that the components of the NQ are really not active at all during Globex on other markets.

As always, past performance is not indicative of future results on those stats.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.


If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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