Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
Posts: 50,009 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,469 given,
98,303
received
Tip
There will be a Live AMA session on Tuesday, April 15th @ 12:00 PM ET.
- Quick and casual, 30 minute cap
- No prepared presentation
- Live screen sharing
- Floor will be opened immediately to questions
- Recording uploaded to AMA thread afterwards
- Attend live to get your questions answered
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
Posts: 50,009 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,469 given,
98,303
received
Tip
There will be a Live AMA session on Tuesday, April 29th @ 12:00 PM ET.
- Quick and casual, 30 minute cap
- No prepared presentation
- Live screen sharing
- Floor will be opened immediately to questions
- Recording uploaded to AMA thread afterwards
- Attend live to get your questions answered
Below are the results of the last poll where I asked which broker and data feed you used. I hope I didn't forget to list any, because I did forget to list the "Other" option after the poll crashed the first time I set it up!
It is my pleasure to welcome Morad Askar (aka FuturesTrader71) for a special webinar as part of our 4-year anniversary ( on futures.io (formerly BMT). The webinar will be on Tuesday, June 11th @ 4:30 PM Eastern US.
Each instrument has its specific times, when it can be traded, and also has its times, when trading does not pay off. The question is. how to determine the optimal trading times?
In a few of your webinars you have discussed the overnight high and lows. I believe that you gave a statistic that 95% of the time if say the high is hit it will not hit the low. Or the other way around. But I have noticed in the NQ we have hit both a few times in the day session over the last few weeks. What does it say about the market if it takes out both in the day session?
My initial thought is range bound activity. That if it hits both then it is like a ping pong ball that is bouncing from one extreme to the next. Am I correct or what is your take?
The following 2 users say Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
The absolutely minimum, in my opinion, is 50 trades. You can start tweaking your trade management and/or plan after 50 trades or so. Your ability to tweak efficiently will depend on how consistently you took and managed the trades.
If you want this to be really useful, post your Trade Analyzer results or trade results here and we can go over them for everyone's benefit.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
The stat is as follows: 96% of 1400 days sampled in ES, the day session touched or broke the overnight high OR low. 27% of the time, it touched or broke both.
If NQ is consistently taking out both sides, I would think that the NQ either doesn't track the Asian/European indices as well as the ES does so it doesn't get much range overnight and is therefore easily broken or that the components of the NQ are really not active at all during Globex on other markets.
As always, past performance is not indicative of future results on those stats.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
Posts: 50,009 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,469 given,
98,303
received
Tip
There will be a Live AMA session on Tuesday, May 13th @ 12:00 PM ET.
- Quick and casual, 30 minute cap
- No prepared presentation
- Live screen sharing
- Floor will be opened immediately to questions
- Recording uploaded to AMA thread afterwards
- Attend live to get your questions answered
hi FT
you mentioned you scalp around your entries in a recent webinar and I assume you use first in first out (FIFO) setting. Is there a place in your strategy to use last in first out (LIFO) or some combination in your trading?
Big Mike,
Thank you for the work you do in making a great website and getting great speakers. And thank you for your continued generosity in doing things like giving away books.
Gregg
The following 3 users say Thank You to spikebuck77 for this post:
This describes all participants with a time frame that is greater than the one you are in. Major trending or vertical moves are completed by larger participants who are using a greater time frame than the one you are looking at. When the OTF participates, it generally takes many prices and a lot of volume transacted to complete an order. Funds, swing investors, governments and financial institutions in general are operating at the OTF level. They are recognized when we move from “horizontal development” to “vertical development”. They are also recognized using the opening swing, initial balance and other indications.
The following user says Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
I watched your video and found it very interesting. Thank you all for your time doing that. I saw an idicator that was interesting. What is the name of this one attached? I hadn't seen it before. Hoping thats something I can put together on my Ninjatrader charts. I'd like to observe it for a while.
This is the Volume Breakdown Indicator on IRT. It is the volume delta in the form of green and red candlesticks. The grey bars are volume delta momentum bars. If you don't know what IRT is, let me know.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
I don't think of it as FIFO or LIFO. I'm using the S5 Trade Analyzer to manage my theoretical average. I don't care which contracts go in or out first. I just need to know where my true "scratch" price is on this trade as I trade around the position.
Hope that helps.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
I'm assuming this is the Investor/RT charting tool? That's a pretty nifty indicator... I like it. I'm landlocked on Ninjatrader at the moment since I'm also exploring the Bloodhound product as well. Investor/RT looks to be an interesting piece of software however.
Has anyone seen a similar tool that's NT compatable?
First of all, this study has to be built using the time frame in which you trade. So I'm going to go on the assumption that you will be tracking rotations using 1 min bars.
2 tick minimum pullback is pretty tight. What is the market you are study? You will likely see tons of rotations that give you little to work with once you give up a tick to get in.
Assuming what you have done is correct, my opinion is as follows:
My 1st scale would be inside of 5 ticks
My stop would be outside of 8 ticks
Your target then has to compensate for the 5-tick scale out versus 8 tick stop which leaves you with -3 ticks of exposure. So your target on a 2nd contract would be around 11-12 ticks
What is more important here, in my opinion, is that you need to watch for any rotations that are 10 ticks or bigger (greater than 2 sigma event). If you have an alert for a rotation set to 10 ticks or better, then this might be your 1st indication that the rotations are expanding well beyond what is "normal" and you need to pay attention especially if this happens near an area or level where you intend to do business. It can signal exhaustion OR the beginning of an impulsive move.
I know that is very technical and it is easier to just talk about it, but I hope you get my point.
Good luck and be militant about your risk control.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
Hey FT, thanks for that. Great minds must think alike as post me posting my original findings I thought to myself that the 1min chart was a bit too tight in terms of timeframe and the 2 tick pullback was also a little punchy.
Results using a 2 tick Renko (which I feel comfortable with) and a 3 tick pullback are:
Sample Size = 984
Max =42
Min =3
Ave =9 VPOC for the rotation study is 6 ticks
So based on your previous reply plus the amended stats from above a viable trade management scheme to start off as a launching point for further testing would look something like the following - Stop = 15 ticks , first scale = 6-9 ticks. if the first scale is achieved I am left with 6-9 ticks of risk on the table so second target needs to be around 15 ticks.
I hope I am making sense. I am a complete novice with Excel but basically took all your AMA's and Webinars and when you were walking through it I paused, zoomed in, copied the formulas from the screen, made mistakes, tried again, made more mistakes, rewatched the videos etc etc. Now I can pretty much do a rotation study in my sleep! Thanks again.
Since you'd came from prop trading I'd like to hear your opinion when we hear people saying that scalping is basically dead due to HFT's, yourself when you say that as soon you got in on a position you stop looking at the DOM but when we search for prop firms what we see is their screens are DOM's.
So on one hand we have prop traders saying that scalping is basically dead, it's almost impossible for a human being compete with HFT's and all their algos that screws DOM reading but on the other hand we have most prop firms offering programs that are focused on scalping, putting traders looking at a DOM a trade based on it.
If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
The following user says Thank You to arnie for this post:
I just finished listening to the webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT), "Getting started in scalping". As I listened to you do the demo trading of scalping, I noticed that I could hear you breathe. However, it sounded like you were breathing in a very specific pattern. If I had to guess at it, I would say deep breathing through your nose and exhaling through your mouth.
Have you trained yourself to breathe a certain way while trading? And if so, is this recommended to other traders?
Thanks in advance for your consideration.
Yukoner
PS. Excellent webinar btw.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Yukoner for this post:
This is a comprehensive process that I'm creating for trader training. I'm basically taking all of my prop experience and providing a course that approaches all traders the same way. This is very different than the traditional "here buy my indicator or buy my DVD, see you later" type of thing. There will be more details as it gets closer to being done.
In fact, the only reason I was part of starting Stage 5 Trading is to develop a prop trading environment but for all online traders. It is a complex task but we are getting there slowly.
I get a lot of emails and notes from all over the place. It is very interesting that those from futures.io (formerly BMT) are consistently the most detailed and the most observant. Credit can only go to Big Mike for that.
As far as your question, although I have a heightened state of emotion while in a trade until I get my first scale out, it is a habit to be aware of my breathing and to focus only on those things that affect my next trade decision rather than on my P&L or how things are going with the market confirming my bias. I'm not aware of it now, but I remain consistently calm through my trades whether they last for hours or are just heavy size + very short term. It doesn't matter. My state of agitation or emotional turbulence can only thwart my plan and it can't contribute to it. So it is key for me to just being self-aware and calm. This is something that becomes very obvious to most traders I have worked with when they start trading larger and larger size.
These are subtle but very important things. Just remember, you are not the same person who is in the trade as you were before the trade (this is my experience and my opinion).
I hope that makes sense.
Best,
FT71
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following 16 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
@futures71 , yes that makes complete sense. Appreciate you sharing! I find it interesting the part about trading bigger and bigger size, and how important it is to be self-aware and calm.
Now I am trying to figure out who I become once I am in the trade.... and how to get the previous guy to stick around a bit longer.
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
Posts: 50,009 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,469 given,
98,303
received
On Tuesday, Feb 3 @ 4:30PM Eastern, @FuturesTrader71 (Morad Askar) will be doing a special webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT). The webinar will be an extended Q&A session (like an Ask Me Anything) where Morad will field questions from users and answer a broad range of topics.
Prizes will be given away...
Attend live to get your own personal questions answered.
have you ever considered adjusting your zig zag study in conjunction with volatility changes? In your opinion what would the benefits and downfalls be for such an approach. Additionally, if you trade globex and US cash session do you think it would be prudent to run separate harmonic studies on each session?
Yes, I do adjust the zigzag. It is interesting though that the ES doesn't veer much away from 2.5-3.25 pts per rotation. That product is not able to sustain high volatility for long enough periods of time. I update zigzag studies about every 6 months. IRT has made it much easier to do now. It is more important to stay up to date on the harmonic changing on thinner products like the NQ, TF, FDAX, GC, CL, SI and others.
Yes, I would want to know what the globex session is doing versus US RTH. I generally treat Globex like it is a whole different product. Technically it is because the underlying stocks are not trading.
I am interested in what type of risk management practices, and procedures are taken at an institutional level. What types of things are firms looking at if they are managing several desks, with dozens of strategies and instruments? Other than VaR, cVAR, Expected Shortfall, instrument or strategy correlation? I would like your input on what its like to manage such a large operation?
The following 4 users say Thank You to treydog999 for this post:
Is he using Investor RT for Orientation, planning etc.. and
S5 Trading Platform for executing the orders, or is he also using Investor RT for trading.
Is it possible to trade from IRT in the charts.
FT71 - Do you subscribe to the theory that if you are correct in your position, you should know it almost immediately? How much heat do you expect to take on a position and do you always let it go to your stop before you exit, or is the stop a fail safe that you will front run if the price action does not play out according to what you are expecting?
Hey Mattguin
Earlier in the thread he posts and says he uses both.
2000/2500volume
Renko on 2 for execution, but todays webinar he said if I recall correctly he is currently using 4 due to current conditions.
The following user says Thank You to KahunaDog for this post:
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
Posts: 50,009 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,469 given,
98,303
received
Hi guys,
As mentioned during the live webinar, we're giving away five autographed copies of the book "Coaching the Mental Game: Leadership Philosophies and Strategies for Peak Performance in Sports - and Everyday Life" to the first five people who posted a question in this thread.
That's you!
I'll contact you via Private Message in a moment to get your autograph request and your mailing address.
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
Posts: 50,009 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,469 given,
98,303
received
Here is the webinar recording:
Please allow two hours for YouTube to finish encoding.
Sorry about the dogs at the last minute of the webinar, a neighbor was honking his horn repeatedly (like 20 times - it's a cultural thing) and my dogs couldn't take it anymore!
You talked today about error tracking being a big differentiator between retail and prop/pro traders. Can you give some examples of errors which when tracked can really help a retail trader like me (who doesn't track any errors and can only guess that you mean more than fat thumb errors)? Does the platform (stage5) help?
only 35mins in.... what a $!*&#-king great webinar
FT - you totally nail it when communicating what trading is about. For many of us, it takes friggin years to work that stuff out, so I think you've done a great service to traders of all experience levels
@Big Mike - this webinar should go in the "where do I start" or similar
Thank you again for the great webinar. You mentioned that you are utilizing a 4 tick renko chart for executing at the moment due to market conditions. what is the determining factor/process on how you decide whether or not to switch from a 2-4 renko? Also, I would appreciate some clarification that you do not adjust your zig zag study when you adjust your renko setting, correct?
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
Posts: 50,009 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,469 given,
98,303
received
I was out of practice during my webinar introduction, plus a little off my game due to the technical problems. I forgot to ask everyone to give a 'thumbs up' on YouTube if you find the video useful. Please take the time to do this, it helps us.
Great question, but I'm the wrong guy to answer. I prefer to respond to things that I have direct experience with and know. Institutional risk management is not an experience I have had.
Pretty sure a lot of sharp guys are on futures.io (formerly BMT) and can provide an answer.
The biggest difference in thinner markets (CL, GC, FDAX, TF, etc) is that the liquidity is low and so it runs through levels a lot. I simply account for that. It doesn't affect me much (except that I have to be faster in thinner markets) because I don't just put orders out there to get filled. I stalk and take the turn when I can.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following user says Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
It does make a big difference. I can tell you that I'm a terrible 1-lot trader. That is a fact. Trading multiple contracts creates more opportunities to manage risk or to campaign when a trade is running, etc. The issue with it is that futures are leveraged and most folks aren't capitalized well enough to run more than 1 contract comfortably (under reason to push for a Micro-ES product to compete with SPY but give u the advantages of futures trading).
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following user says Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
There are many basic failure patterns. A typical head and shoulder or M-pattern are failure patterns. I simply read them in the short term rather than on 60 min or daily charts.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following user says Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
I flip back and forth between volume and Renko. I use volume bars instead of time bars because I want to see that the market is not moving if there is no volume in it. I don't get the next back "just 'cause". I use Renko more now because it gives me what I think is a cleaner read on the turns. Renko is only used for trigger charts. I use Renko candles with wicks.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
That is what I thought.
How can I send you a private message ??
I am testing Stage 5 and IRT with Datafeeed from Market Delta (is that IQ feed).
Very nice with the MAE MFE to see how I am doing.
Is there a place where is is shown how to export/import in Excel and look at the different outcomes.
Ft71
in a recent tweet you responded or commented on time.
You wrote something of the nature to "what does time have to do with it"
Can you comment in general on time?
time of day?
Do funds still have to get so many orders off? Then at the end of the day run for the fire exit?
things like that. How do they mask their orders?
They often create levels that are useful in volume profile.
Do they often occur at a certain time.
Does covering occur at a certain time?
I've noticed it does to a certain point. The exact time is not real specific, but give or take 5-15min. Then when price action shows it's intentions people unload their orders creating a cascading effect. Like an off set trade.
Any comments on the London traders affecting the NY open and their effect at NY lunch. ?
What are your thoughts regarding the CME closing all the pits except the S&P?
Sooner or later also the S&P pit will be closed so how would you think that one should now look at the pit session since there will be none?
For instance, the treasuries pit session begin at 7:20CT and end at 14:00CT. Maybe this time period will continue after the pit closes has being the day session period but chart wise, do you think that it will make sense to continue looking at the market by session, RTH vs ETH? Or since the market will be 100% electronic volume (in a way it is already) will not "wait" for the pit to open and may start acting at any time now?
Regards
If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
The following user says Thank You to arnie for this post:
Listening to one of your webinars for the 5th time, and you made the comment that most traders are low on mental capital and that your job as a prop trading firm owner was to help your traders gain on their emotional capital ( 4:98 - risk, scaling, probabilities, and trade management).
Would you be able to share some specific steps on how to increase one's mental capital that can be recommended to us traders here on futures.io (formerly BMT)? Considering that the majority of us don't have access to the environment of a prop firm such as yours. I think traders on futures.io (formerly BMT) would find it invaluable to hear that... Or my wish list would be a webinar on the topic.
Thanks for your consideration,
Yukoner
The following user says Thank You to Yukoner for this post:
I am no expert! However, I would agree with you, once in the trade, and it’s going nowhere, exit the trade – something’s wrong!
I remember listening to one of “LBR” webinars, where she echoes similar advice. Once you have entered a trade, if your entry is correct, it should start to move in your direction immediately. Linda likes to refer to… “Try to feel the market’s pulse” and move accordingly. No pulse, “GET OUT”!
If you are using the S5 Trader with IRT, then your feed is coming in through MD Trader (an adapter) direct from our servers. Your historical data is coming from DTNMA (IQFeed with no real time data). It is an effective combo for the cost-conscious trader.
You can export your results to Excel by hitting the Export button the Daily tab to save to CSV. We have a template to import the data into. Soon, all of this will be online and automated. We try to eat our meals one bite at a time.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following user says Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
For FDAX, the session starts at 7 AM GMT but the cash market doesn't start until 8 AM GMT. This is an unfortunate change that Eurex made back in 2006 or so. For that reason, you have to use 120 mins for the IB for the FDAX. The alternative is that you create a custom session in IRT that starts at 8 AM GMT and just use a 60 min IB. I use the former method.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
