AMA: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) / Morad Askar - Ask Me Anything - futures io
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AMA: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) / Morad Askar - Ask Me Anything


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AMA: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) / Morad Askar - Ask Me Anything

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  #311 (permalink)
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Statistical webinar discussed:

https://futures.io/webinars/june11_2013/futurestrader71_statistical_analysis/

Thread:



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  #312 (permalink)
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Regarding seasonality, an interesting thread from @Fat Tails here:



Mike

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  #313 (permalink)
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I want to thank @FuturesTrader71 as always for his time today for the AMA.

Here is the recording:



If anyone has questions that went unanswered, you can post them here in the thread.

Mike

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  #314 (permalink)
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In a few of your webinars you have discussed the overnight high and lows. I believe that you gave a statistic that 95% of the time if say the high is hit it will not hit the low. Or the other way around. But I have noticed in the NQ we have hit both a few times in the day session over the last few weeks. What does it say about the market if it takes out both in the day session?

My initial thought is range bound activity. That if it hits both then it is like a ping pong ball that is bouncing from one extreme to the next. Am I correct or what is your take?

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  #315 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
In a few of your webinars you have discussed the overnight high and lows. I believe that you gave a statistic that 95% of the time if say the high is hit it will not hit the low. Or the other way around. But I have noticed in the NQ we have hit both a few times in the day session over the last few weeks. What does it say about the market if it takes out both in the day session?

My initial thought is range bound activity. That if it hits both then it is like a ping pong ball that is bouncing from one extreme to the next. Am I correct or what is your take?

**@FuturesTrader71 looking forward to your insights on this.

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  #316 (permalink)
Chicago, IL, USA
 
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Mtype View Post
Another awesome AMA. Thanks FT and Mike!

Thanks for the feedback. Always appreciated. It is so key for us to know that it is useful and to change when it is not.

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  #317 (permalink)
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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DeadCatBounced View Post
Sorry I have not had a chance to attend a live AMA,

How many trades do you think should be booked before the tick expectancy starts to mean something realistic.

The absolutely minimum, in my opinion, is 50 trades. You can start tweaking your trade management and/or plan after 50 trades or so. Your ability to tweak efficiently will depend on how consistently you took and managed the trades.

If you want this to be really useful, post your Trade Analyzer results or trade results here and we can go over them for everyone's benefit.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

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  #318 (permalink)
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CT Bookmap, IRT
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Trading: ES, CL, RTY
 
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Posts: 306 since Feb 2012
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arnie View Post
Switch: How to change things when change is hard.

Amazon.com: Switch: How to change things when change is hard eBook: Chip Heath, Dan Heath: Kindle Store

An amazing book on how to change behavior.


Similar to The Power of Habit but... better

Really cool that you posted it here. This is the book I recommended to futures.io (formerly BMT) for the June event.

Please use this link if you plan to get it from Amazon so that my charity can get the credit (doesn't cost extra):

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

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  #319 (permalink)
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 306 since Feb 2012
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Big Mike View Post
Regarding seasonality, an interesting thread from @Fat Tails here:



Mike

Good work by @Fat Tails. Love this kind of info to shape trading decisions.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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The following 2 users say Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
 
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  #320 (permalink)
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Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 306 since Feb 2012
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tturner86 View Post
In a few of your webinars you have discussed the overnight high and lows. I believe that you gave a statistic that 95% of the time if say the high is hit it will not hit the low. Or the other way around. But I have noticed in the NQ we have hit both a few times in the day session over the last few weeks. What does it say about the market if it takes out both in the day session?

My initial thought is range bound activity. That if it hits both then it is like a ping pong ball that is bouncing from one extreme to the next. Am I correct or what is your take?

The stat is as follows: 96% of 1400 days sampled in ES, the day session touched or broke the overnight high OR low. 27% of the time, it touched or broke both.

If NQ is consistently taking out both sides, I would think that the NQ either doesn't track the Asian/European indices as well as the ES does so it doesn't get much range overnight and is therefore easily broken or that the components of the NQ are really not active at all during Globex on other markets.

As always, past performance is not indicative of future results on those stats.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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