Thanks for posting the link. I think we all strive to minimize the level of uncertainty around our analysis but in the end it's a futile quest. Once we embrace it we look at markets with a new perspective and horizon. When i started trading i was looking for confirmation before placing a trade nowadays i know this confirmation element is not necessary and can even be detrimental. It has changed the way i look at things even my own strategy. When you no longer need 'confirmation' because you know the uncertainty will always be present you become free to look at price action in a different way and simplify your approach. I'll watch this video later on today.
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Wow this is a pretty powerful statement. In my own trading I use a system of waiting for demand or supply to show up in strength on one side or another, before entering- Im not far from the bottom of a push but I still wait for some confirming action. It would be great if you could elaborate or point me in a direction where I can expand in this direction through threads, books etc
Great Post I will be thinking about this for a while!
I don't mean to be taking over this thread in any way- so feel free to bump me off!
"Train yourself to let go of everything you fear to lose."
-Yoda, Star Wars Episode III Revenge of the Sith
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I was somewhat disappointed by the presentation. I thought there would be some practical ideas but instead it was more of a teaser for a course the author is selling. I understand the marketing aspect since it is free but nevertheless i would have liked to go with something more tangible.
Regarding your comment, i still need to see strength on one side or another before taking a new position as i mostly trade the pullback that occurs after witnessing some range expansion. The difference is in the fact i don't wait for some order flow signal in the form of a bar closing in the direction of the BO or a footprint or T&S pattern as element of confirmation. I do filter the type of range expansion i see to minimize losing trades and the level i identify as beeing more likely to revert price in the BO direction. It is nothing fancy and this particular phenomenon occurs every day. It's in a way similar to a pattern of divergence. Not all divergences are good to take. You need to apply some filter and measure your success accordingly.
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Yes, TIYF makes a great point. Another way of saying this may be - no matter where you enter, no matter which direction - your trade will always have the element of uncertainty. Waiting for "confirmation" is really an illusion to some degree. Let's say you are waiting for a level like yesterday's high to enter - you wait for price to get there and then you wait for the "confirmation" of price making some kind of pattern near that level for you to be confident (usually this involves some form of price going in the direction you want to trade first). You then enter. The idea that this "pattern" or "price going in your direction first" provides certainty (confirmation) is mostly an illusion - no matter what reason you have to enter there will always be uncertainty. Yes you can create consistency in your approach and backtest, etc but the uncertainty will not go away. Best to embrace it and manage your risk, trade frequency, and position size accordingly.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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Yes, his videos do tend to do that, and probably the course is to some extent a teaser for private consultations. I still thought it was a good presentation.
I've followed more or less the same progression you speak of in terms of waiting for confirmation - essentially preferring information risk to price risk. I also do it with reversal levels, when you enter directly against strength, though of course one time frame's reversal is another time frame's pullback.
Oddly enough, that's how I started trading in equities. It has taken me a long time to get to it in futures.
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Thank You for your answers this idea of information risk vs Price Risk. You bring up some valid points- I am definitely waiting for certainty- I think this is probably related to the need to be right. Hmm that is going to be a tough psychological issue to break.
I agree with your sentiment of the webinar... I think his redeeming feature is that he presents the ideas:
The idea of engaging in actions that make you a better trader. Not every action is going to make you a better trader, however in total they bring about a winning trader rather than a winning system.
The traders that can tolerate discomfort are the ones that are going to win in the market.
Among others
"Train yourself to let go of everything you fear to lose."
-Yoda, Star Wars Episode III Revenge of the Sith
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There is nothing wrong in waiting for confirmation, the way i see it when i trade a breakout (range expansion)+pullback+continuation pattern is that i don't wait for confirmation when price pulls back to a predetermined level and a pending limit order is waiting to be filled since i consider i already got enough confirmation from the range expansion signal itself. I agree there is some discomfort when you see price move toward your pending order as you don't know with certainty if it will revert there or go and hit your stop loss. All i know is that on a large number of occurrences it has worked well within the space of positive expectation.
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I've always liked Dr Menaker's webinars and so im considering his course. He certainly has all the relevant credentials in terms of his career and the fact that he actually trades.
My main concern is how much info is in his course that isn't already available in the hundreds of free webinars he has done. I would hate to go through the course and end up only hearing a few minor aspects that he hasn't already talked about in prior webinars.
I've never paid for any trading related courses, rooms etc. If I am to purchase something, I figure a detailed and thorough course on trading psychology from a well respected professional in this field will be the way to go.
Any thoughts? Experiences?
Thanks.
Diversification is the only free lunch
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