Thanks for posting the link. I think we all strive to minimize the level of uncertainty around our analysis but in the end it's a futile quest. Once we embrace it we look at markets with a new perspective and horizon. When i started trading i was looking for confirmation before placing a trade nowadays i know this confirmation element is not necessary and can even be detrimental. It has changed the way i look at things even my own strategy. When you no longer need 'confirmation' because you know the uncertainty will always be present you become free to look at price action in a different way and simplify your approach. I'll watch this video later on today.
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Wow this is a pretty powerful statement. In my own trading I use a system of waiting for demand or supply to show up in strength on one side or another, before entering- Im not far from the bottom of a push but I still wait for some confirming action. It would be great if you could elaborate or point me in a direction where I can expand in this direction through threads, books etc
Great Post I will be thinking about this for a while!
I don't mean to be taking over this thread in any way- so feel free to bump me off!
"Train yourself to let go of everything you fear to lose."
-Yoda, Star Wars Episode III Revenge of the Sith
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I was somewhat disappointed by the presentation. I thought there would be some practical ideas but instead it was more of a teaser for a course the author is selling. I understand the marketing aspect since it is free but nevertheless i would have liked to go with something more tangible.
Regarding your comment, i still need to see strength on one side or another before taking a new position as i mostly trade the pullback that occurs after witnessing some range expansion. The difference is in the fact i don't wait for some order flow signal in the form of a bar closing in the direction of the BO or a footprint or T&S pattern as element of confirmation. I do filter the type of range expansion i see to minimize losing trades and the level i identify as beeing more likely to revert price in the BO direction. It is nothing fancy and this particular phenomenon occurs every day. It's in a way similar to a pattern of divergence. Not all divergences are good to take. You need to apply some filter and measure your success accordingly.
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Yes, TIYF makes a great point. Another way of saying this may be - no matter where you enter, no matter which direction - your trade will always have the element of uncertainty. Waiting for "confirmation" is really an illusion to some degree. Let's say you are waiting for a level like yesterday's high to enter - you wait for price to get there and then you wait for the "confirmation" of price making some kind of pattern near that level for you to be confident (usually this involves some form of price going in the direction you want to trade first). You then enter. The idea that this "pattern" or "price going in your direction first" provides certainty (confirmation) is mostly an illusion - no matter what reason you have to enter there will always be uncertainty. Yes you can create consistency in your approach and backtest, etc but the uncertainty will not go away. Best to embrace it and manage your risk, trade frequency, and position size accordingly.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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Yes, his videos do tend to do that, and probably the course is to some extent a teaser for private consultations. I still thought it was a good presentation.
I've followed more or less the same progression you speak of in terms of waiting for confirmation - essentially preferring information risk to price risk. I also do it with reversal levels, when you enter directly against strength, though of course one time frame's reversal is another time frame's pullback.
Oddly enough, that's how I started trading in equities. It has taken me a long time to get to it in futures.
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Thank You for your answers this idea of information risk vs Price Risk. You bring up some valid points- I am definitely waiting for certainty- I think this is probably related to the need to be right. Hmm that is going to be a tough psychological issue to break.
I agree with your sentiment of the webinar... I think his redeeming feature is that he presents the ideas:
The idea of engaging in actions that make you a better trader. Not every action is going to make you a better trader, however in total they bring about a winning trader rather than a winning system.
The traders that can tolerate discomfort are the ones that are going to win in the market.
Among others
"Train yourself to let go of everything you fear to lose."
-Yoda, Star Wars Episode III Revenge of the Sith
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There is nothing wrong in waiting for confirmation, the way i see it when i trade a breakout (range expansion)+pullback+continuation pattern is that i don't wait for confirmation when price pulls back to a predetermined level and a pending limit order is waiting to be filled since i consider i already got enough confirmation from the range expansion signal itself. I agree there is some discomfort when you see price move toward your pending order as you don't know with certainty if it will revert there or go and hit your stop loss. All i know is that on a large number of occurrences it has worked well within the space of positive expectation.
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I've always liked Dr Menaker's webinars and so im considering his course. He certainly has all the relevant credentials in terms of his career and the fact that he actually trades.
My main concern is how much info is in his course that isn't already available in the hundreds of free webinars he has done. I would hate to go through the course and end up only hearing a few minor aspects that he hasn't already talked about in prior webinars.
I've never paid for any trading related courses, rooms etc. If I am to purchase something, I figure a detailed and thorough course on trading psychology from a well respected professional in this field will be the way to go.
Any thoughts? Experiences?
Thanks.
Diversification is the only free lunch
The following user says Thank You to DarkPoolTrading for this post:
So i've pretty much decided to do the course and will be signing up in the next day or two. Quite excited actually. There is a definite gap between my methodology's ideal performance and what I actually produce,...and that gap is the result of what goes on in my head.
In the mean time, it would still be great to hear from anyone that has done the course. Thoughts?
Thanks.
Diversification is the only free lunch
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He certainly has a good reputation, and the material I've seen seems solid.
My main concern would be that his main business, like a lot of these coaches, comes from private counseling. So just as the free material tends to plug the paid material, the paid material may be designed to plug the private sessions.
If you take the course it would be interesting to hear your experience.
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Yes I did the course. It was excellent with a lot of material. It's the kind of course which you can refer back to over and over again, taking little bits from it each time. There are a lot of different techniques discussed, so there may be some things which appeal more than others,...which is the whole point.
I would target this course at people who:
- Have a proven edge in the market
- Have a detailed trading plan which for whatever reason, you battle to follow
All the psychology in the world is not going to help if you don't already have an edge that you know has a positive expectancy over time. If you're still trying to figure out a methodology, or if you're not completely sure that your methodology has an edge then rather put this course on hold. Dr.Menaker mentions this himself a few times in the course. His focus is on remaining true to your methodology,....but you have to have a methodology first.
One more thing, the course is long and it's not something which you can just go through once and all of a sudden you're a rock star trader. It requires hard work and effort to implement the techniques.
So to cut it short,....yes the course is good
Diversification is the only free lunch
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The course has two parts. One part consisting of several webinars, another part consisting of 2 workbook / pdf's. Some of the webinar content is also in his free stuff. But there is still a lot of unavailable stuff in the webinars. The content from the workbooks are unavailable anywhere. The workbooks are essentially the meat of the course because that's what you'll use to do exercises and implement techniques that he discusses.
Basically you watch all the webinars (probably more than once each). Then you get stuck into the workbooks.
Diversification is the only free lunch
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I have taken the first version of this course. I found it to be of value but like everything you must put in the time to go through the material and journal or it will be of little value.
I understand Andrew is offering an updated version of his course, which I have not purchased.
Good trading,
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3 reasons traders fail:
not havng and edge
not being able to articulate their edge
not incorparting trading psychology into out plan
Hypothalmus puitiary adrenal access
HPA access controls: stress, mood, emotions, energy storage, immune, digestion
Emotion and cognition are intertwined
how we perceive our world and how we make our decisions
key - ability to tolerate discomfort/pain/idsappointments in our trading and follow our plan
how do you take a loss? promising youself you will do x (white-knucling it through) won't work and then berating yourself afterwards doesn't fix the problem.
Beat yourself up when you don't follow your rules - e.g "next time I'll be more patient."
Will-power is not a sustainable form of discipline. (glucose used up in the stress of decision) - see ego deleption
other ways to develop discipline.
tick by tick pressure - pain when it goes against you and relief when a tick goes with you
e.g Bob - smart hard worker - still not BE in P/L - needs other skills - how you respond to discomfort.
the noise and ambiguity of the market causes pain, anxiety -- answer in him not in the charts
perfectionists like to saty busy.
Emotions help us decide on which information to prioritizing for incoming info - allocate a scarce resource.
Priming by the unconscious
Priming - casino story
Framing - A -B avoid even the perception of loss
We see the market as we are (not as it is) we project our own filter onto the market.
Our current beliefs and actions are governed by experiences linked to unconscious emotional memories.
Emotions are key to forming beliefs
Re-experiencing of emotions tied to the orginal conflict re-enforce current beliefs.
Unconsious emotional memories key to developing beliefs
How a belief continues to be supported by the continued exposure to the emotions that formed it.
Hot state in trading decisions.
Price follows path of least resistance. We seek out comfort and avoid pain, but as a trader we must face it.
Elephant poop
Unresolved emotions. Act out your feelings instead of enduring them.
Malcom give back trader. Making money feels good but the last trade cost him dearly. We tend to take less than optimal trades as we go along.
Traders must recognize your own patterns to act in your own best interests. Our brains need info on how to act.
Sleep is crucial
Glucose - willpower - brain uses 25% of our body's glucose. Food determine serotins and neurotransmitters - ammin acids.
Manage your physical body.
Feeelings about our social status. Unconscious emotions fuel feelings but we just let it go. See emotion as a source of info about how we are interacting with our environment.
Emotions effect: attention,perception of risk, causality etc.
We must work with a subset of information aas there is too much to handle.
Effective decision-making requires emotion.
Managing emotions - 3 steps - but reuire ability to identify emtion - takes practise
what emotions will come forward -anticipate (how will I feel in the future if I can the action now)
express your emotion
analysis your emotion
process goals (we do control) vs outcome goals (you dont have control over)
premarket routine - exercise - meditation. real time emotion goals
tyoe 1 & 2 follow your plan - make money or lose money
type 3 & 4 don't floow you plan -make money or lose money
self-directed questions - do them out-load
am I acting best interest right now?
how much pressure am I feeling right now?
Find the right process goals.
Develop the right kind of confidence & focus on process not outcome
Develop confidence that is resislence in the face of disappointements - waiting, losing, missing out all the things we have to face in trading.
Self -understanding (using analytics to become aware of the underlying emotions driving your behaviour)
Self -acceptance (if your ignore your emtions it is much more likely you will act out the emotions. Tto be in the present accepting what is)
Focus on process not outcome (doing the things you have control over builds self-trust - as opposed to focusing on things you do not have control over -the trade outcome. Doing this gives yourself a chance to do something right. and doing this over and over builds psychological capital)
Leverage your strengths
1. Articulate your edge (does it suit you? do you have confidence in it?)
2. Manage you energy - physical and mental and emotional - they are interconnected. Stay hydrated, 2 cups of w for one of coffee,
balanced glucose protien and graze, avoid high glycemic foods, omega 3 fatty acids - fish increase serotonin, Water is key!
3. trade the market not your P&L (write down every time you thing about money)
..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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Trading: RTY, ES, and Directional Options on QQQ, SPY, IWM, AMZN, AAPL, TSLA
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Glad you liked the Advanced Course. I am just looking at his basic course and I'm not very impressed. There isn't a whole lot in there. I may consider getting the Advanced one.
