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This is not a recommendation or endorsement. If you have direct experience with Alphatrends.net, please share your thoughts on this thread.
From the website alphatrends.net:
Brian Shannon is a full time trader (with 20 years of experience), educator and author of the highly regarded book Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes. Brian is best known for his technical analysis videos which are the #1 most subscribed financial videos on Youtube. Brian is an investor, senior contributor and advisor of stocktwits.com.
A few years ago I joined Brian's site for a trial.
I liked his approach. He's more of a teacher than a 'signal caller'. Sure, he shares trades but the value (to me) was in the market reviews and analysis he performed.
You can actually see a good portion of his videos for free at [yt]https://www.youtube.com/user/thermal1[/yt]. I'd suggest reviewing the vid's...you'll get a feel for his style from them.
Thanks. I'm looking for a chat room of good stock traders to exchange ideas as I do my futures trading. Brian seem very straight forward guy and knowledgeable.
I'm more than familiar with TA, I just would like to have a group of like minded traders after done with futures trading around 11:00am CST to make it more interesting. I normally trade options/stocks in the afternoon (swing and long term trading).
I cannot make a definitive judgement and I have only viewed the first video to get the flavour of his presentation but I have not seen anything in his approach that would cause a major change to my approach to trading.
Technically his approach seems to be exclusively based on trending lines. But what surprised me is that he used (at least in the first video) exclusively horizontal resistance/support lines and no mention at all about diagonal resistance supports which to me anyway are equally important.
I did like how he referred to indices and referenced stocks but he flipped around a bit so it is hard to digest one instance before he blasted to the next.
Don't get me wrong....Trending is a very good tool to use but there are other tools that are good too is used properly.
Whenever, I consider following an analyst's advice I like to check their analysis in the past and see how it panned out in the following days.
I picked 3 stocks that were clearly talked about and compared his chart which ended Oct 5/12 with one I would have used at the time. In some cases the values of the share prices differ between mine and his charts but that is because my charts are adjusted for dividends and splits since that time but the pattern of the candle sticks are clearly the same.
IN THE FIRST VIDEO...
At 2:25 into the video he talks about PowerShares [NASD:QQQ]
In the minute or so that he talks about this stock, he talks about the stock potentially having a fast slide to the downside but he kinda glosses over the possibility and moves on.
In my chart, the Slow Sto was falling since August though that was not a serious decline... at the last week it broke severely below 80 and the trend broke 50 a week before his analysis
The MACD was in decline for the same time accelerating at about the same time
These are all red flags with the BBWidth falling since the last week of Sept (indicating the rise since 1st week of Sept was over)
It would have been a watch for me if I did not own the stock .... If I did own it I would have set a Limit Stop Loss at about $66 in my chart .... I would not trust the rise
At 3:13 he talks about Apple [NASD:AAPL
this is my chart
Again he ignores a diagonal support which may have twigged alarms when it was broken. In his discussion he acknowledges a potential head and shoulders formation then discounts it because of a rising 50daySMA .... hmmm it takes a while for a 50daySMA to change direction, it does not move on a dime.
I do like his horizontal resistance supports but there is much more to this story...he predicts a rise and fall, it is not clear but I think he is suggesting a sideways movement.
In my chart the warning signs literally shout out red flags.... Look at the severe decline in slope of the Slow Sto starting in the last week of Sept... in about 10 days it went from full on Bull to full on Bear
The MACD had a definite negative slope passing through zero well before the date of this analysis
The Slow Sto had a minor positive drift which by itself is not serious but combined with the Slow Sto and MACD performance screams decline
I would have placed a limit stop loss at $88.00 (remember my chart is an ADJUSTED price) and it would have tripped almost immediately
At 8:56 he talks about Millennial Media [NYSE:MM]
Here is my chart
He discussed this stock for a minute and suggested a rise with a stop-loss at $14.50 and in fairness If you were fast off the mark the next day you would have had a nice intra-day trade as it rocked up to $16.00 from $15.10....but that is basically all... it did not carry through much higher and in fact tripped the Stop-loss 10days later and if you held it that long you lost money.
My analysis of the situation would not be that bullish....it would have been a watch for me.....Why? Because you are approaching a point where a breakout may occur. The Bollies were contracting and the share price was in a nice location (along the 20daySMA) The price was in consolidation from the early Sept rise. The Slow Sto was mildly bullish as it was rising back to 80...the MACD was neutrally bullish at best as it was looking like it would reverse direction.
But look at the BBWidth...it was still falling....there was not break out ready.... look what happened to the BBWidth when that rise happened the next day...IT CONTINUED TO FALL...this indicates a head-fake to me. By the time there was a slight rise in the BBwidth the MACD and SLOW sto was falling again.
The real price change occurred in mid November...rapid rise in BBwidth with warnings ahead of time by falling SlowSto and MACD indicates a break down
I would have just had this as a watch...nothing more
Conclusion
I see nothing in his approach that would cause me to change my way of using indicators and Bollinger bands.
I have shown you only a single chart but in a complete analysis I would have used 2-3 more charts to arrive at a consensus.
I like his use of trend lines but think he limits himself to mostly Horizontal trends which I have an issue with.
I recommend things in the following if you are frugal and like to make well-researched decisions:
Check out his free content on YouTube (link referenced in an earlier post)
Read his book on Amazon (Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframe)
If you like what you have watched/learn, spend some money on the trading service
I did all three and I'm a current subscriber. Since I've gotten the hang of things, I don't check every single premium video he releases but I check in here and there. He is a trader first and a business man second and so he doesn't have the flashy website or the social media following but his ability to put the markets in context has been helpful to me.
I would classify his strategy as predominantly price-action based, but not to the granular level of Al Brooks. My understanding of Al Brooks' approach is that it is based on changes in sentiment by comparing individual price bars' high/low/close in relation to prior price action bars. Brian Shannon's approach is more zoomed out, comparing higher lows/higher highs/lower lows/lower highs in the overall trend instead of a candlestick bar.
