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YTC Price Action Trader (www.ytcpriceactiontrader.com)

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  #51 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
For me, Lance's concept of 'trapped traders' sounds like an intuitive explanation of the way the market will move after interaction at support or resistance - or in one of the supply or demand zones that are discussed on this thread, I assume.

I agree, it is kinda hard to pick those setups in a live market. I have not used them in my trading. All I remember was I liked the concept and it made intuitive sense. I have only been able to identify them on static charts.

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  #52 (permalink)
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Only 2 trades today. One stop on CL that I am totally mad about and a good short on FDAX. The short on CL was in the good for close to 40 ticks and then I let it come back for a full stop. I realized this is not acceptable and will not happen again. My rules call for a move to at least BE at 1:1 R2R. I didn't do it and paid for it.

The FDAX trade was actually a second trade on this instrument. The first occurred at 4AM EST. I didn't take that trade because the zone was too wide for my risk tolerance. Price barely even penetrated the zone (showing that this level was a very strong level). I then took a short of a supply zone for a +64 ticks.

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It is not clear to me whether recent posts are on-topic about YTC room or not. If they are, fine. If they are not about YTC or a review of the YTC services, please create a different thread to discuss them.

Thx,
Mike

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Quoting 
It is not clear to me whether recent posts are on-topic about YTC room or not.

Just a quick FYI @Big Mike: you say "room" - not sure if you meant 'trading room' like Al Brooks's, but YTC PAT is a pdf book and in fact Lance Beggs the author doesn't operate a trading room. There's just a blog, a newsletter and a website with docs and videos.


kulu View Post
I agree, it is kinda hard to pick those setups in a live market. I have not used them in my trading. All I remember was I liked the concept and it made intuitive sense. I have only been able to identify them on static charts.


OK, the concept of trapped traders: definitely a YTC PAT theme and one that sounds great. But I'm going to play Devil's Advocate here, which I don't actually want to play but since no-one else is saying anything, here goes:

Trapped traders are possible to see everywhere and therefore no use.

Since the idea of locating trapped traders to benefit from their stop order flow is only provable (and actually only half provable) once there has been a price surge afterwards that might (or might not) have been their stops being run, does it make sense to try finding them?

I have no experience of locating trapped traders in real time so my analysis is perhaps worthless, but since I can imagine trapped traders in most locations (it's just people getting their trading wrong), why should the method lend me an edge?

This is especially true in forex where there is no volume available. How else can you detect when lots of break-out traders are jumping on the bandwagon?

Here's a chart of the Euro/USD forex in London time showing the morning session start. The blue line is the Asian session high which traditionally break-out traders like to watch, representing resistance.

The theory goes like this:

- the break-out traders watch the market picking up steam after Europe opens for business and it looks bullish. The Asian session was mixed - it went down and came back again, made a high around 5:00am and sold off a bit. Now it's heading back for that Asian high and the break-out traders won't be able to resist leaping in long as soon it makes a tick above that, either ignoring the impending round number at 1.37 or thinking it at least makes a good scalp.

- it's not all bullish though, note that red candle, #111 so there is weakness in the rally.

- the market breaks out (our traders go long hopefully)

- instead of pushing to the upside in a continuation of the rally, the market stutters. So we have weakness and a potential break-out failure which could trap all those longs, and our aim is to get short in order to ride their stops as the failure goes against them.

- now look at the 1 min chart. If you were a break-out trader (our intended victim), presumably being a good trader you would enter long and automatically place a stop behind you. Where would you put it? Automatically probably a good 10 points away. So let's assume that the little retrace back below the resistance didn't stop anyone out yet (the 2nd red candle on the 1min chart after the break-out). That means over the next 5 bars the break-out traders are still hoping that the market will rise up and away, so they'll be busy at this stage pulling up their stops to around probably 1.3685 but essentially anywhere under the resistance line. Plus later newby traders will have entered without stops and they'll bail out later after the pain gets too much, adding to the order flow.

- we either enter short on a stop at the same place, or if we are experienced, we work an entrance above the line when we see a trigger - a stall or a candle formation etc.

- BINGO! The market slumps far enough back under resistance to trap all those longs and hit the stops, and we're in too.

So, did that make sense? Fact or fantasy? If I can make up this kind of story for the interaction of price with any support or resistance level on the chart, I'll probably be wrong just as much as I'm right. So why would it lend me any kind of edge?

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #55 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
It is not clear to me whether recent posts are on-topic about YTC room or not. If they are, fine. If they are not about YTC or a review of the YTC services, please create a different thread to discuss them.

Thx,
Mike

Mike,

Please feel free to delete my posts if they are not appropriate to this thread (or I can just remove them). I thought we were all discussing the YTC and supply and demand here.

kulu

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  #56 (permalink)
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kulu View Post
Mike,

Please feel free to delete my posts if they are not appropriate to this thread (or I can just remove them). I thought we were all discussing the YTC and supply and demand here.

kulu

Kulu, you might be. And probably are. That is why I posted, as I said it was not clear to me so I just wanted to ask everyone stay on-topic. If you were already on-topic then no further action needed

Mike

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  #57 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
Just a quick FYI @Big Mike: you say "room" - not sure if you meant 'trading room' like Al Brooks's, but YTC PAT is a pdf book and in fact Lance Beggs the author doesn't operate a trading room. There's just a blog, a newsletter and a website with docs and videos.




OK, the concept of trapped traders: definitely a YTC PAT theme and one that sounds great. But I'm going to play Devil's Advocate here, which I don't actually want to play but since no-one else is saying anything, here goes:

Trapped traders are possible to see everywhere and therefore no use.

Since the idea of locating trapped traders to benefit from their stop order flow is only provable (and actually only half provable) once there has been a price surge afterwards that might (or might not) have been their stops being run, does it make sense to try finding them?

I have no experience of locating trapped traders in real time so my analysis is perhaps worthless, but since I can imagine trapped traders in most locations (it's just people getting their trading wrong), why should the method lend me an edge?

This is especially true in forex where there is no volume available. How else can you detect when lots of break-out traders are jumping on the bandwagon?

Here's a chart of the Euro/USD forex in London time showing the morning session start. The blue line is the Asian session high which traditionally break-out traders like to watch, representing resistance.

The theory goes like this:

- the break-out traders watch the market picking up steam after Europe opens for business and it looks bullish. The Asian session was mixed - it went down and came back again, made a high around 5:00am and sold off a bit. Now it's heading back for that Asian high and the break-out traders won't be able to resist leaping in long as soon it makes a tick above that, either ignoring the impending round number at 1.37 or thinking it at least makes a good scalp.

- it's not all bullish though, note that red candle, #111 so there is weakness in the rally.

- the market breaks out (our traders go long hopefully)

- instead of pushing to the upside in a continuation of the rally, the market stutters. So we have weakness and a potential break-out failure which could trap all those longs, and our aim is to get short in order to ride their stops as the failure goes against them.

- now look at the 1 min chart. If you were a break-out trader (our intended victim), presumably being a good trader you would enter long and automatically place a stop behind you. Where would you put it? Automatically probably a good 10 points away. So let's assume that the little retrace back below the resistance didn't stop anyone out yet (the 2nd red candle on the 1min chart after the break-out). That means over the next 5 bars the break-out traders are still hoping that the market will rise up and away, so they'll be busy at this stage pulling up their stops to around probably 1.3685 but essentially anywhere under the resistance line. Plus later newby traders will have entered without stops and they'll bail out later after the pain gets too much, adding to the order flow.

- we either enter short on a stop at the same place, or if we are experienced, we work an entrance above the line when we see a trigger - a stall or a candle formation etc.

- BINGO! The market slumps far enough back under resistance to trap all those longs and hit the stops, and we're in too.

So, did that make sense? Fact or fantasy? If I can make up this kind of story for the interaction of price with any support or resistance level on the chart, I'll probably be wrong just as much as I'm right. So why would it lend me any kind of edge?

I do not trade the trapped traders concept. It just makes sense after price has moved. I was fascinated by it, but couldn't find the setups on a live market. Again, this is not to say it doesn't work, I just couldn't see it.

The supply and demand levels that YTC and Seiden use are my bread and butter. However, like Seiden said in one of his webinars, it's pretty scary when you are asked to place a sell/buy limit order when price is heading into the supply/demand zone. Today was a perfect example, an overall bullish day, price moving towards supply levels (CL, TF, EMD and FDAX). I just took one of the trades and took a breakeven trade on it.

Kulu

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kulu View Post
I do not trade the trapped traders concept. It just makes sense after price has moved. I was fascinated by it, but couldn't find the setups on a live market. Again, this is not to say it doesn't work, I just couldn't see it.

The supply and demand levels that YTC and Seiden use are my bread and butter. However, like Seiden said in one of his webinars, it's pretty scary when you are asked to place a sell/buy limit order when price is heading into the supply/demand zone. Today was a perfect example, an overall bullish day, price moving towards supply levels (CL, TF, EMD and FDAX). I just took one of the trades and took a breakeven trade on it.

Kulu


Hi Kulu

with some experience of trying to identify the trapped traders locations on charts in hindsight, I can say the main thing you look for is the big move when the stops get hit. Very often I don't see it, the setup might be logical but there is no distinctive blast-off out of the setup. So yes you are right, it must be difficult to see in real-time.

You have to look at the setup and determine for yourself where the trapped traders' stops would be. The absence of the big move though when that point is reached indicates that maybe your premise was wrong or at least that there's more risk that it'll go the other way, so you have the option to bail out without a loss.

That though is just the opinion of a neophyte with this strategy, so don't take my word for it. To be honest, I haven't read that in Lance Beggs' YTC PAT book, it's just my theory, but if it doesn't pan out that why I'm certainly going to ask him to say more on the subject. It certainly seems to work for him.

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  #59 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
Hi Kulu

with some experience of trying to identify the trapped traders locations on charts in hindsight, I can say the main thing you look for is the big move when the stops get hit. Very often I don't see it, the setup might be logical but there is no distinctive blast-off out of the setup. So yes you are right, it must be difficult to see in real-time.

You have to look at the setup and determine for yourself where the trapped traders' stops would be. The absence of the big move though when that point is reached indicates that maybe your premise was wrong or at least that there's more risk that it'll go the other way, so you have the option to bail out without a loss.

That though is just the opinion of a neophyte with this strategy, so don't take my word for it. To be honest, I haven't read that in Lance Beggs' YTC PAT book, it's just my theory, but if it doesn't pan out that why I'm certainly going to ask him to say more on the subject. It certainly seems to work for him.

Thanks for your explanation. I just don't trade the setup for the reasons given above, but I like the idea. Maybe someday I will "get it" I just like my supply and demand levels. They get the job done for me.

Good day

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Hi,

resurrecting this thread again because it's exactly the subject I want to discuss.

Using support and resistance based on swing highs and swing lows, after several days trading in a range, I find the S/R levels get really cramped and I start deleting the old, stale levels that didn't generate any price interaction.

Sometimes I'll have 3 levels close together, within 20 pips, and it looks like they are all generating interaction. I keep thinking of these supply and demand zones. And in fact, the YTC PAT ebook says all S/R levels are zones really anyway and not just lines.

But having a strategy for a zone is not the same as having one for a line.

Generally speaking I wait for price to arrive at an S/R level and form a stall / consolidation range, generally 5 to 10 pips. Assuming I am confident about my bias for future trend direction, I'll try to get in at a good price in this range, the better the price the further the stop can be. Then hopefully soon price zooms off in my direction.

Otherwise, I wait for a trigger, e.g. an up/down twins bar formation or a Jap candlestick pattern, and I'll enter when that's complete, or in the worst case if my bias is strong or the RR looks good, I'll put a stop break-out entry order in.

That's all clear to me when the S/R level is a line, but what do I do when it's a zone? It seems to introduce a whole new set of factors to consider. If price has almost penetrated the zone and is stalling at the far edge, then great - but what if it's not? Doesn't that make the whole trade lower probability, if price has to fight further to emerge the other side?

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