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Viper Trading Systems Indicator
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Viper Trading Systems Indicator

  #101 (permalink)
Elite Member
Phoenix AZ USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: SierraChart
Broker/Data: TradePro/TransAct
Favorite Futures: NQ YM RTY
 
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Thanks: 125 given, 338 received


Zoethecus View Post
On a 24 hour period, or even a few days, NT doesn't have material historical data errors for tick or range charts, but going back as little as a week it can. Time charts don't have such an issue.

The SIM refresh that Viper employs to post its daily results are the ideal prices the system would have fired the trade.

The killer is slippage.

Although I can't confirm it, Viper once had about 250 paid subscribers after the Russell was released. Who knows how many were trading live, but if half were at the two contract level, that's 250 contracts firing AT THE MARKET and the Russell simply can't handle that sort of demand without prices shooting away from the AT original entry; it's simply way to thin and at times only less than 50 contracts are available on a side.

Thus, live traders had much worse results than the hypothetical Viper results.


How can the historical data get that polluted? Isn't it saved as it is collected and available thereafter?

Maybe there's a business opportunity here... I've heard it said that reliable accurate timely data is the last frontier of retail trading. (After a charting platform that doesn't choke).

I agree slippage will change backtested results for the worse. That means my historical-data-produced backtest of Viper's ATs are the best case scenarios. Yikes!

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  #102 (permalink)
Elite Member
Washington DC
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
 
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Zoethecus View Post
How many have you tired and what do you mean by "effective."

2 and a half. Tried two, and couldn't make money with either. Looked at Viper's autotrader, and it didn't even run consistently, so I never seriously considered it.

Effective. Exactly what you are talking about. Making money.

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  #103 (permalink)
Just starting out...
Capitol City,NC
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 7 since Jan 2010
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tomgilb View Post
rubberduck,

Please explain why analysis based on reloaded charts would be far from accurate.

It seems to me that the script would react the same to the price action regardless, except for slippage and historical data errors. The backtest analysis should not be significantly different from what would have actually happened.

-Tom

Tom,
I think Zoethecus summed it up accurately, slippage is the problem. Accuracy is lost when the live and reloaded charts get out of sync.

When using the russell autotrader live, my entries were off 2-5 ticks from the reloaded chart. If the reloaded chart hit it's first target then headed in the other direction and hit breakeven then it's looking for another trade, but I'm still in the trade.

One day I was stopped out in around 10 seconds. The script fired a long trade, then the price started dropping very quickly. The reloaded chart fired a reverse while the price was dropping, but in live trading it didn't reverse. I was stopped out and the reloaded chart was still in the trade.

To be fair, some days the charts do sync up pretty closely.

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  #104 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: TF,S,GC
 
cclsys's Avatar
 
Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
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I looked at their stuff this summer when they were announced as partners. I did like the clean, simple charts their indicator-based system produced. Breakouts with longer-term trend. Simple. Good.

They made a huge error, imo, by trying to automate and not only that, selling individual modules custom-fit for each particular index market. Over-optimization, clearly, not to mention greed. At this point they went full-tilt boogy into marketing hype type activity as their prime mode versus a 'we are traders and we can help you trade too' type approach. I would be very surprised if they can be consistent with their systems without having to issue endless re-releases every few weeks/months for each of them after a wicked DD period which few, if any, could weather in practice.

I suspect the only day-trading automated systems that can work are those based on very definable patterns, usually early in the am cash session or late. Like opening range breakouts, range expansion extremes (OB/OS), things like that. Smoothed indies will rarely hold up in any market, let alone the indexes, over time.

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  #105 (permalink)
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cclsys View Post

They made a huge error, imo, by trying to automate and not only that, selling individual modules custom-fit for each particular index market. Over-optimization, clearly, not to mention greed. At this point they went full-tilt boogy into marketing hype type activity as their prime mode versus a 'we are traders and we can help you trade too' type approach. I would be very surprised if they can be consistent with their systems without having to issue endless re-releases every few weeks/months for each of them after a wicked DD period which few, if any, could weather in practice.

I agree. I still like there simple charts. Problem was the didn't automate Viper, but they picked up Rick Straiton's stuff. Total black box. Some of the things the said couldn't be done, made me very leary as I knew they could. Then I saw the draw downs on the way to profits and knew it would never be for me.

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  #106 (permalink)
Just starting out...
Cuijk
 
Futures Experience: None
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Posts: 4 since Sep 2009
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Well, they did not make a Viper autotrader but I know someone who did....Daxtrading.nl

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  #107 (permalink)
Elite Member
Phoenix AZ USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: SierraChart
Broker/Data: TradePro/TransAct
Favorite Futures: NQ YM RTY
 
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Maxxi View Post
Well, they did not make a Viper autotrader but I know someone who did....Daxtrading.nl

Early on, Marten from daxtrading.nl was a contributor to Viper, or rather a preferred customer, who would join in the live chat discussions that none of the regular folks were allowed to. He vanished and we never heard from him again at Viper. I wonder who coded his autotrader?

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  #108 (permalink)
Elite Member
Phoenix AZ USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: SierraChart
Broker/Data: TradePro/TransAct
Favorite Futures: NQ YM RTY
 
Posts: 296 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 125 given, 338 received


rubberduck View Post
Tom,
I think Zoethecus summed it up accurately, slippage is the problem. Accuracy is lost when the live and reloaded charts get out of sync.

When using the russell autotrader live, my entries were off 2-5 ticks from the reloaded chart. If the reloaded chart hit it's first target then headed in the other direction and hit breakeven then it's looking for another trade, but I'm still in the trade.

One day I was stopped out in around 10 seconds. The script fired a long trade, then the price started dropping very quickly. The reloaded chart fired a reverse while the price was dropping, but in live trading it didn't reverse. I was stopped out and the reloaded chart was still in the trade.

To be fair, some days the charts do sync up pretty closely.

I knew that slippage was an issue, but I didn't realize it was to that extent. I guess the thin market and the rapid movements of the TF both work against you. My recharted backtest of the RussellsViper showed it to be the best of the bad. In reality, it probably had even greater drawdowns.

-Tom

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  #109 (permalink)
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Platform: NinjaTrader
 
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tomgilb View Post
Early on, Marten from daxtrading.nl was a contributor to Viper, or rather a preferred customer, who would join in the live chat discussions that none of the regular folks were allowed to. He vanished and we never heard from him again at Viper. I wonder who coded his autotrader?

Don't know factually, but I looked at Marten's website, and the posts, sure seem to have the look of Rick's work. Also the "Tweaker" used because Ninja doesn't remember strategy limitations also sound like Rick. I know of another coder who got around that problem very cleanly, but I don't think Rick knew how to do it.

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  #110 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
United States of America
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
 
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tomgilb View Post
Early on, Marten from daxtrading.nl was a contributor to Viper, or rather a preferred customer, who would join in the live chat discussions that none of the regular folks were allowed to. He vanished and we never heard from him again at Viper. I wonder who coded his autotrader?

Marten probably realized early on, that Viper had no business selling AT and moved on.

Have any of you used his AT? If so, create another thread to discuss.

Yesterday, Viper released a handful of forex pairs for AT. They claim 3 months of backtesting showed good results, but they are not publishing them. It's clear that the founding Viper owners, Gary and Charles, don't have a clue what Rich Staition is doing. I think the lion's share of the $299/month fee goes to Rich and the other two get a commission. They seem to be in the dark and totally uneducated about any of these forex products.

I wouldn't touch these things without seeing at least a year of REALTIME trading statements.

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