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Viper Trading Systems Indicator
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Viper Trading Systems Indicator

  #91 (permalink)
Banned: trolling
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Zoethecus View Post
This excerpt from Jane's superb analysis is all you need to know to stay away from Viper's Russell AT unless you enjoy losing money. Allow me to net it out for you.

From 9/09 thu 12/09, AT gained 368 points @$10/point = +$3,680.
900 contracts commission @$4.50 = -$4,050
Viper fee, $299/month x 4 = -$1,196

NET LOSS: $1,566.

Well, Charles, Rich, Gary, and the subscriber's broker made money; and four out of five ain't bad.


ouch

you mean, you still had to pay the subscription fees? (joke, of course you did, insult to injury)

in all fareness,

there must have been spectacular winning days somewheres in there?


actually what has happened and I tried to mention this and openly discuss the unknown factor

whatever special approach or method that was used to develop and market the process, has been countered and out thought by highly educated PhD's in Financial Engineering as well as Mathematics as well as Software design.

simply put, they reverse engineered a probable similarity to the approach used by viper, and then figureed out both how to:

1) trigger its indicators into a false conclusion and then took trades opposite it
2) figurered out when it triggers a trade so they could front run, post run or cancel out its anticipated or expected outcome

this is what happens to all softwares, in smaller words, the marketplace has adjusted around its uniqueness to neutralize its advantage....

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  #92 (permalink)
Just starting out...
Capitol City,NC
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Posts: 7 since Jan 2010
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Zoethecus View Post
This excerpt from Jane's superb analysis is all you need to know to stay away from Viper's Russell AT unless you enjoy losing money. Allow me to net it out for you.

From 9/09 thu 12/09, AT gained 368 points @$10/point = +$3,680.
900 contracts commission @$4.50 = -$4,050
Viper fee, $299/month x 4 = -$1,196

NET LOSS: $1,566.

Well, Charles, Rich, Gary, and the subscriber's broker made money; and four out of five ain't bad.


If I'm not mistaken, the russell emini is $100/point. But the analysis is based on reloaded charts so it's far from accurate.

When I was a subscriber, I studied the reloaded charts as far back as I could and it looked great, but live charts are very different from sim or reloaded charts.

It is a nice advertisement for the autotrader though.

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  #93 (permalink)
Banned: trolling
NYC + NY / USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: "I trade, therefore, I AM!"; Theme Song: "Atomic Dog!"
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Posts: 798 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 216 given, 498 received



rubberduck View Post
If I'm not mistaken, the russell emini is $100/point. But the analysis is based on reloaded charts so it's far from accurate.

When I was a subscriber, I studied the reloaded charts as far back as I could and it looked great, but live charts are very different from sim or reloaded charts.

It is a nice advertisement for the autotrader though.

When I was a subscriber, I studied their live trade signals, because just about everyone's charts from any package repaint bars, and your conclusion is very accurate, namely the prior day's data looks perfect.

I saw losing trades and trades that would never be taken by a rational trader who desires to make, not lose money, in real time, not replayed data.

I tend to agree with the other guys conclusions and research showing continuing losses and expenses using this package.

this is not an advertisement of an auto trader, (what a cynical comment)

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  #94 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
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Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
 
Posts: 1,149 since Aug 2009
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rubberduck View Post
If I'm not mistaken, the russell emini is $100/point. But the analysis is based on reloaded charts so it's far from accurate.

When I was a subscriber, I studied the reloaded charts as far back as I could and it looked great, but live charts are very different from sim or reloaded charts.

It is a nice advertisement for the autotrader though.

The author of the study inadvertently mixed "points" with ticks on the spreadsheet. The numbers are, in fact, ticks as referenced by Viper on the website. Each tick is $10.

Obviously, your results weren't in points. If they were, you be a raving Viper promoter instead of an ex-subscriber.

BTW, if this system could produce anywhere near those number in points (not ticks), it would be the most successful AT in the history of systems and the last thing the Viper boys would do is sell it. Instead, they'd trade it themselves for as much size as the market could handle and get rich beyond their wildest dreams, without the headaches of selling this shit to nubes and other get-rich-quick dreamers for $299 a month.

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  #95 (permalink)
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rubberduck View Post
If I'm not mistaken, the russell emini is $100/point. But the analysis is based on reloaded charts so it's far from accurate.

When I was a subscriber, I studied the reloaded charts as far back as I could and it looked great, but live charts are very different from sim or reloaded charts.

It is a nice advertisement for the autotrader though.

rubberduck,

Please explain why analysis based on reloaded charts would be far from accurate.

It seems to me that the script would react the same to the price action regardless, except for slippage and historical data errors. The backtest analysis should not be significantly different from what would have actually happened.

-Tom


Last edited by tomgilb; January 24th, 2010 at 04:53 PM.
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  #96 (permalink)
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tomgilb View Post
rubberduck,

Please explain why analysis based on reloaded charts would be far from accurate.

It seems to me that the script would react the same to the price action regardless, except for slippage and historical data errors. The backtest analysis should not be significantly different from what would have actually happened.

-Tom

I've seen the same thing, and it wasn't viper scripts. I suspect it's the data itself. I know I don't run my machine 24/7 which is one thing. Also no guarantee the recording system in Ninja is perfect.

Pete

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  #97 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
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Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
 
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tomgilb View Post
rubberduck,

Please explain why analysis based on reloaded charts would be far from accurate.

It seems to me that the script would react the same to the price action regardless, except for slippage and historical data errors. The backtest analysis should not be significantly different from what would have actually happened.

-Tom

On a 24 hour period, or even a few days, NT doesn't have material historical data errors for tick or range charts, but going back as little as a week it can. Time charts don't have such an issue.

The SIM refresh that Viper employs to post its daily results are the ideal prices the system would have fired the trade.

The killer is slippage.

Although I can't confirm it, Viper once had about 250 paid subscribers after the Russell was released. Who knows how many were trading live, but if half were at the two contract level, that's 250 contracts firing AT THE MARKET and the Russell simply can't handle that sort of demand without prices shooting away from the AT original entry; it's simply way to thin and at times only less than 50 contracts are available on a side.

Thus, live traders had much worse results than the hypothetical Viper results.


Last edited by Zoethecus; January 24th, 2010 at 08:15 PM.
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  #98 (permalink)
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Peter2150 View Post
I've seen the same thing, and it wasn't viper scripts. I suspect it's the data itself. I know I don't run my machine 24/7 which is one thing. Also no guarantee the recording system in Ninja is perfect.

Pete

Pete,

I'm not using MarketReplay. I'm talking about opening a chart after the fact and applying the strategy. What I don't understand is why the historical data, and consequently the entries and exits, would be significantly different from when it happened live.

I can understand that data from different providers might be slightly different (but not significantly different), but historical data and live data of the same timeframe, from the same provider, should be real close.

If you're talking about what you see on your charts vs. what Viper posts on their autotrader website, then that's another story. I never did chase that discrepancy. I could only go by what trades my chart displayed because those are the trades my system would have taken.

-Tom

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  #99 (permalink)
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tomgilb View Post
Pete,

I'm not using MarketReplay. I'm talking about opening a chart after the fact and applying the strategy. What I don't understand is why the historical data, and consequently the entries and exits, would be significantly different from when it happened live.

I can understand that data from different providers might be slightly different (but not significantly different), but historical data and live data of the same timeframe, from the same provider, should be real close.

If you're talking about what you see on your charts vs. what Viper posts on their autotrader website, then that's another story. I never did chase that discrepancy. I could only go by what trades my chart displayed because those are the trades my system would have taken.

-Tom

Hi Tom

First I've long given up an any autotrading strategy being all that effective. But in playing with looking at the charts, after the fact and live, I've concluded the only results I trust are live. Not sure I can explain why, but that's just the conclusion I've come to based on looking.

Pete

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  #100 (permalink)
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Peter2150 View Post
Hi Tom

First I've long given up an any autotrading strategy being all that effective.
Pete

How many have you tired and what do you mean by "effective."

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